OSU-PSU
I have some really mixed feelings about this game. I never want to see Ohio State win, however I’m not very comfortable with Franklin’s success at Penn State. We already know that Ohio State is very good. But I haven’t quite figured out Penn State at this point yet. They look like they sleep walk through 3 quarters and then pour it on. Penn State is a game that I desperately want to win this year. I am looking for any sign of weakness in them that I can find. I guess the best case scenario is that Penn State wins the game in an ugly fashion and looking not impressive in the process. How do you think this one will turn out?
September 24th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
I'm taking PSU. OSU is the better team but both are elite offenses and flawed defenses. PSU just gave up 250 rushing yards to Illinois while OSU got gashed defensively by spread Oregon State and TCU, neither of whom have good offenses. It seems like a mirror matchup but I'll take PSU at home, at night against an OSU team without Bosa.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
I think Penn St will win. Road at night in Happy Valley is a beast.. and their offense is really good. Not sure how good Ohio State is (TCU losing by multiple scores to Texas...Maryland beat Texas). TCU was really moving the ball against the Buckeye D. Either way - great game to watch this weekend after we stomp NW.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
I agree 100%. In Columbus it would be a different story. PSU is not as good a team as OSU, but the difference is smaller than people think. To add to what you said: one reason people are skeptical of PSU is that App State took them to overtime. But you know what? App State is a legitimately good football team! S&P+ has them at #20 (10 spots ahead of TCU), and while that's probably too high, this is not FCS App State any more. They are an elite G5 team this year, along with UCF, Boise, and Memphis.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Ohio St is favored by only 3.5, even though they look like a more complete team. Here's a strange stat though:
Since 2015, Penn St is 24-6-1 vs the spread after a win
In that time, they are also 0-8-1 vs the spread after a loss
So my prediction: Ohio St 38, Penn St 35
Penn St loses but covers this week, then wins but doesn't cover vs MSU
September 24th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Would like to see both teams lose. However, I do think OSU will eek it out on the road. Just not convinced that PSU's defense is up to the task. That said, I won't cheer for either...
I will, though, actively cheer for Stanford to beat ND. I'm always happy to see the God Squad go down. To do so at home, in a nationally televised game, is just frosting.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Is there a way they both can lose? Asking for a friend.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
Ohio State by 3 touchdowns.
But fear not, we win in Columbus this year.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
I think OSU will win this game handily. PSU does not appear to be as good, offensively or defensively, this season as last season. And OSU is better this year than last. This has the makings of an easy win for OSU.
September 24th, 2018 at 6:18 PM ^
They're actually ranked 4th in S&P+ offense compared to last years 10th. And by the eye test they do appear to be better offensively.
They've scored 45, 51, 63 and 63 points in their four games so far. The O line finally has all third year or more experienced guys starting after sanctions cratered that unit for a few years and it seems to be helping. Returning third year starting QB helps a lot too.
But yes, defense does look as good and doesn't fare as well in the advanced metrics. Still a top 5 S&P+ team though.
September 24th, 2018 at 6:29 PM ^
OK. Thanks for the stats. I forgot that they've scored so many points. Not sure if Pitt can be considered a tomato can or not this season. But yeah, maybe their offense hasn't skipped a beat from last season.
Well then, home night game and all, maybe they do stick with OSU. And I guess I would prefer that PSU wins because we'll get them at home and likely undefeated so it's a chance for Michigan to notch more voter points. And OSU losing is never a bad thing.
September 24th, 2018 at 9:44 PM ^
Franklin runs up the score like no one else. I would not be impressed by 4th quarter scoring. Look at how and when and by who the points were scored. PSU leaves their first string in longer than anyone else and play calling is score first and run clock second.
September 24th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Seems like a PSU win is better for us because if OSU drops some other game, we could win the division title without beating OSU if we win all of other games. I'm viewing a road win against OSU as being much harder than beating PSU at home.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
I hate OSU, but I'd rather see them win.
As the OP alluded to, we're already used to OSU being good, and having true staying power year in and year out. If PSU wins this game, I think that means that they're here for good and virtually on OSU's level. And that's one more elite program Michigan has to try and beat year in and year out to get to the BTCG.
Do I think we'd have an easier time beating PSU than OSU? Yes. But them winning is going to make our recruiting even more challenging. OSU recruiting is already so saturated to the point that they really can't be doing much better than they are now. PSU can still kick it up a notch or two. That's not something I want to have to contend with. Couple that with the fact that Franklin is pretty young. His offense doesn't translate to the league, and there's not much other universities could offer him that PSU couldn't. So he'll be staying for a while.
I want to know that if he's staying, he's got a program that usually hovers from good to great, not great to elite or permanently elite.
September 24th, 2018 at 8:00 PM ^
I see your point, but look at what a loss would do to OSU.
Meyer is in his first real test since coming back, and there have been a lot of rumors that he wasn't happy with the suspension, or being forced to apologize, and generally doesn't feel supported by the school administration. Couple that with Ryan Day's success as interim, some recent rumors that he's a coach-in-waiting, and some discussion among the fanbase if Urban is too stubborn with running his QBs.
If OSU loses 31-24, and Haskins has his poorest game of the season throwing the ball, and there are playcall complaints, I can see the tension turned up on Urban and his relationship fracturing further.
Yeah, I hate James Franklin and if he wins his office will smell like his own farts for the next week. I think he is going to continue to recruit well, win or lose, but he's not as good a coach overall as Meyer. Additionally, a PSU-over-OSU result would be better for Michigan in the division race, as it would create more possibilities to win the division even if we lost to OSU.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
Penn State is not that great....They have played nobody, but Franklin likes to run up the score to make them look better than they are. McSorley is their only play. Stop him you stop PSU. OSU on the other hand is beatable too. Texas beat TCU.... So really who have the Buckeyes played? Non of those teams had a defense. The Jury is still out with that said, OSU wins 34- 17
September 24th, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
"Franklin likes to run up the score to make them look better than they are."
What's the difference between hanging 49, 45 and 56 in our last three games and what they did? We even left our starters in for an oddly long time against WMU. It was fair to want to get them more experience playing together.
I don't think PSU is doing anything differently or worse.
September 24th, 2018 at 6:35 PM ^
I recall towards the end of the Pitt game and with an insurmountable lead PSU was still firing bombs to the end zone. I get that they are rivals but still I thought it was a little douchey.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
Does Urban know how to use a passing QB that can't really run?
September 24th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
They seem to be doing pretty well with it so far.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
It's not going to matter because PSU is so overrated this year.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
I think Ohio blows their doors down and Penn State is exposed as the pretender they are.
It doesn't matter for us though, since we're going to beat them both down later this year.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
OSU is the better team but PSU at night is a handful. I don't have a good feel for the game.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
I love to see both of the lose...and don't much care to see either of them win. So whatever happens, I will be torn.
Are chances of beating Penn State, imo, are greater because it's a home game. With this in mind, logic would lead me to wanting a PSU victory for their game this weekend.
But that would lead me to rooting for PSU...and that I cannot do.
So I would like both to lose, and I will relish in the losing, and not the winning.
Mental gymnastics.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
I think OSU survives but their weak running game means they'll be relying on Haskins a lot, and at this point he has 200+ throws that are on video for DCs to scheme from, so he's almost at the threshold of the 250th throw theory.*
But OSU has enough big play guys on the outside in the end. I do think "whiteout" keeps it close enough for an upset tho.
*Once a QB has 250 throws on video a DC can effectively scheme against his tendencies and he needs to "take the next step" of exploiting where the defense is weak because of the adjustments. (Sometimes not so easy.)
September 24th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
ooohh something shiny and new to gobble up. Is there a link/reference to this "theory" or you are just mentioning this? Curious to know.
September 24th, 2018 at 4:48 PM ^
The 250 throw theory is widely known and accepted within the Counterstrike community.
September 24th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
I'm working on it.
Too small of a sample size right now but it was true for Rudock in 15 and Speight in 16 and many of the "September Heismans" experienced their downfall around that 250 mark.
September 24th, 2018 at 6:31 PM ^
Uhhh, what? Rudock was a lot better the second half of the year, pretty much the opposite of Speight 2016 and a "September Heisman."
September Heisman's are created by weak opponents that allow guys to rack up stats, much moreso than a lack of film on QBs.
September 24th, 2018 at 8:32 PM ^
True, Rudock was better in the second half and September Heisman's are mostly crowned racking against the weak.
On the other hand, Rudock was smart enough to make quick adjustments in the Baughffense but after trending up the first four games and coming off a great performance against BYU, the passing game completely flat-lined against Maryland and couldn't completely get off the mat till Rutgers, three games later.
Same with Speight he cruised through the first seven but than in two out of his next three he struggled; after that, I think injury derailed his chance to fully get to the next level for OSU and FSU. Fuckin close tho.
Same with Lamar Jackson in '16 he rolled trough most teams except Clemson till the last four games and Wake Forest, Houston and LSU all contained him.
Haven't done enough research to flush it out but preliminary findings are consistent.
September 24th, 2018 at 6:09 PM ^
Don't be tricked by his username. Smart Wolvefan is anything but smart. It's highly likely he just made this up out of thin air.
September 24th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
Firstly, it's:
S Mart WolveFan
as in the place you shop to buy shotguns to kill the Evil Dead.
That's why my avatar has Ash holding a UofM flag while shoving his armpit in Brutus' nose.
Secondly: Yes, I did formulate the theory.
So, you think the ability to formulate theories makes someone not smart?
Cool
September 24th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
I want psu to win by 50
September 24th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
Doesn’t matter. Hate them both and need to beat them both. I just hope the game is close and both teams dig deep into their playbooks so we can see whatever they have cooked up to date.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
The smart play here is probably to root for PSU. The Lions have games against us, Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU on top of Saturday's game against the Bucks. They will stub their toe at least one or two more times before the end of their season. OSU on the other hand has a far more favorable schedule with a road game against Sparty before facing off against us in Columbus. OSU losing on Saturday is probably the best thing for Michigan.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
I agree. OSU losing is great. M should prep to beat the crap out of PSU.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
I would like them both to lose. Absent that, a 0-0 tie with the entire defensive teams ejected for targeting.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
Also, Urban Meyer trips running onto the field and has his groin stepped on by an offensive lineman.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
I don't understand how this is even a question. You always want OSU to lose. Every game. In every sport. Until the sun explodes.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
I think OSU is the second-most talented team in the country, but unless they tighten up their secondary and even the linebacking corp then I think they will eventually run into an issue. Happy Valley is going to be a tough game for them to win, especially after a PSU wake-up call. But I could also see PSU gifting them a touchdown or two and beating themselves bc we all know how OSUs story ends.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
Meteorite Bowl
September 24th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
Getting to be one of those games I hate because somebody's gotta win:
MSU-OSU
MSU-Notre Dame
Now OSU-PSU, which sounds mildly obscene for some reason.
I guess I look for lightning cancellations with a tie score, now.
September 24th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
My key: Penn State Linebackers need to make plays.
They are good athletes, but haven't shown the highest "football IQ" in PSU's first 4 games. PSU really misses Jason Cabinda, who was a smart football player and anchored the defense last year.
If PSUs LBs don't step-up, OSU can score 40+. If they do step-up, they can keep the Bucks in the 20s.
One thing I'm more certain of --- PSU will score. The offense is legit, and it's a good offensive line (finally) that Sanders is running behind. Juwan Johnson finally stopped dropping balls this week against Illinois; he's an all-B1G talent if he plays at his best. Barkley is gone, but IMO it's still one of the nation's top 10 offenses. Bosa is a tough loss for the Buckeyes, Meyer said that he's definitely out Saturday night.
September 24th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
Good analysis. Their LBs are talented but young and inexperienced. I don't think people who have never been to a 'Whiteout' at night in Happy Valley against a rival can understand how valuable that is for Penn State. OSU has the better players and should win, but the Whiteout might make a significant difference and give Penn State a real chance to win.
September 24th, 2018 at 5:39 PM ^
This OSU/PSU game seems to have a historical "doppleganger." That game being Ohio State's 2014 visit to Michigan State:
2014 OSU: an elite offense. Top notch, despite having a relatively inexperienced QB at the helm (JT Barrett). Zeke Elliott was awesome. OSU finished the season ranked 1st in S&P+.
2014 MSU: The MSU defense was not one of their vintage units. They were decent enough, but not great. MSU's defense ranked 26th in S&P+. Wow, could they score though. The best MSU offense in the Dantonio regime. That MSU team never scored less than 27 points in a game.
2018 OSU: the offense, it may not be elite, but it 's very very good. Ranked 2nd in S&P+. That despite, like 2014, having a relatively inexperienced QB at the helm. Dobbins & Weber are darn good running backs.
2018 PSU: looks to be a step-down from last year. Decent enough, but again not great. Currently ranked 22nd in S&P+. An offense that, thus far, has shown the ability to put lots of points on the board.
The 2014 OSU @ MSU game was at night, fired up crowd, both teams in the Top 13. OSU won 49-37. Both teams with 500+ yards. OSU got a 1-score lead at the half. MSU scored a ton in the 2nd half, but they were seemingly stuck at 7-14 points down. MSU would score but OSU continually answered. The defense didn't make enough plays to stop OSU drives. OSU punted only twice on the night.
One thing I recall about that game --- Meyer didn't play it conservative. He played pretty wide open. A couple weeks prior, OSU had visited PSU and Meyer played it rather conservative. That strategy resulted in a game that went to OT. OSU won it OT but their run to the National Title nearly got derailed by a PSU team that wasn't overly great in 2014 (7-6 record).
Will be interesting to see Meyer's strategy Saturday night. If I were an OSU fan, I'd be advocating for an aggressive approach. But Meyer hasn't really done that too often at PSU (he was pretty conservative in OSU's 2012 & 2016 visits to Happy Valley as well)
September 24th, 2018 at 8:10 PM ^
That OSU trip to Penn St in 2014 was one of the more inexplicable results in recent Big Ten play. IIRC Penn State had just come to Ann Arbor and lost 18-13 to a truly listless Brady Hoke team. And the game looked as bad as it sounds.
The idea, in retrospect, that had Penn State won, Meyer wouldn't have had his 2014 national title, makes me grind my teeth.
September 24th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^
Indiana (4-8 in 2014) had a 21-20 lead on OSU in the Horseshoe late in the 3rd quarter that year as well. Michigan had them tied 21-21 in the 3rd quarter in Columbus too. Cincinnati was down only 5 late in the 3rd quarter in an OSU home game.
I'll give that 2014 OSU team credit. Their offense could hit the gas and accelerate quick when they needed to and escape with wins. They did it several times that year. The 2OT game against PSU - the offense was unexplosive the entire game but they scored TDs with ease in both extra periods.
September 24th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
Look, ohio state is a monster. Honestly, I'd rather see ohio state lay a beat down on them. Having penn state win, only let's everyone think they are on the same level as ohio state. That's 2 monsters to have to deal with. I'd rather just deal with the monster we know, than add in penn state.
September 24th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
Beat Northwestern. Then wish both PSU/OSU lose that game...
September 24th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^
Why does PSU get to play OSU at night but we can't??? Do they actually think a night game against OSU in Ann Arbor could possible be any worst than in Happy Valley???
September 24th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
Because we play them at the end of November.