Ohio St has 87th Toughest Schedule This Season
Phil Steele rank's Ohio St's strength of schedule very low this year, at 87th out of 130. And he has Michigan at 3rd toughest.
LINK: http://plus.philsteele.com/Blogs/Blog_PDFs_Images/2018/DBMay02/2018_Spring_Guide.pdf
Schedule ranking of other notable teams. All teams that you would intuitively think could be in the CFP Final 4 rank below 53rd.
Alabama 54th
Georgia 63rd
Clemson 61st
Penn St 55th
Notre Dame 45th
USC 84th
Miami 65th
Michigan St 33rd
Wisconsin 99th
Oregon 122nd
Auburn 4th
Florida St 1st
Nebraska 2nd
If both Ohio St and Michigan end up 11-1, and only 1 can be put into the CFP Final 4, which should it be? Certainly Michigan, right? What if Michigan's 1 loss is to Ohio St? Wouldn't it be strange if Ohio St would be chosen in such a scenario? I know they would be chosen, because head-to-head play would be the determining factor. But how fair would that feel? If it feels ok then that is more evidence that strength of schedule can end up being meaningless.
So they want the 4 best teams in the Nation in the CFP Final 4, but strength of schedule could lose meaning in the equation. Can you do the math on that?
Alabama and UGA say hello.
If M loses at OSU to lose the division despite being 11-1, they'd almost certainly still get in.
Right, under normal circumstances, yes. So, i realize they didn't play each other, but precedent has kind of been set by the SEC last year getting 2 teams in. It could happen. Likely? Probably not, but it's also not out of the question.
Not sure how Clemson is 61st. Their schedule is an absolute joke.
Honestly - the way Steele is figuring strength of schedule here isn't overly sophisticated. It's simply combined 2017 winning percentage.
I don't know if this is available - but something like "average projected S&P+ value for 2018" (Bill Connelly projects everyone's S&P+ prior to the season) would be better.
Heck, ranked teams + teams with winning records is a more accurate way of interpreting THIS data.
Not to mention there is no contributing bias for conference strength OR difficulty of away games.
Measuring the strength of schedule before the season starts is a proforma at best. I’m curious to know what our 2017 strength of schedule was like prior to last season compared to the end of the season?
I think the relevant statistic if looking at head-to-head comparisons is strength (and record) of schedule outside the head-to-head matchup. In this case, I'm guessing our SOS would go down more significantly than OSU's, leading to a less egregious reason to pick OSU. Losing The Game each year is going to be a backbreaker for either team because nascence matters. Unfortunately, that's been us basically every year in recent history with the exception of the Luke Fickell lulz. I think the committe rightly prioritizes H2H over SOS, especially late in the season.
SOS is an odd metric. OSU is 87th and has TCU on the road. MSU is 33rd and has Az St. on the road. MSU conference might be slightly tougher as they have NW and OSU has MN. The rest of the teams are pretty much irrelevant.
It would be interesting to recompute the schedule strengths of Notre Dame, OSU, M State, and Wisconsin after taking M out of them. They would likely all drop to near 100. How does Nebraska rate #2 with Akron, Colorado, and Troy, along with their West brethren (and M)? Doesn't make sense that it rates tougher than M.
This is a silly topic. You have Notre Dame, then two directional schools. It's not like OSU is handpicking in-conference opponents...
if the refs give Michigan a fair shot. There's no question as to who will win in Columbus. ..
Michigan has to beat OSU to get in (and the BTT title game). The only time the SOS will matter is if/when they have to compare schedules with another team from another conference.
Terrible metric to use win% for this, so uh.....know their schedule isn't 87th.
Even using this data a simple formula of: ranked teams(x3) + winning record teams(x1.5) +/-(.d) [where (d) is the difference between win record teams and bowl teams]
For 2017:
No #1: Syracuse 30.1
2: ND 27.1
3: FSU 27.0
4: ASU 27.0
5: MissSt 27
6: Clem 25.6
7 LSU 25.6
8 GT 25.6
9: UCLA 25.5
10: Ala 24.1
11: Fla 24.1
12: Pitt 24
13: WSU 24
14: OLE 22.8
15: MSU 22.7
16: NC St 22.7
17: Aub 22.6
18: Oregon St 22.5
19: Cal 22.5
20: Utah 22
21: A&M 21.3
22: UofM 21.2
23: BC 21.2
24: Maryland 21.2
25: Texas 21.2
26: OSU 20.6
drop the pac12 out by using a "weak conference" penalty and add a big game on the road metric and IMO this way of looking at it that best correlates to reality.
For 2018:
1: FSU 30
2: UofM 28.5
3: A&M 27
4: Aub 26.9
5: Pitt 25.6
OSU has 22.5, easily putting them inside the top 25 for toughest schedule in '18.
While win % is a terrible metric, your completely arbitrary SoS scoring system probably isn't much better (weak conference penalty, wtf?).
Uhhh.....ok thanks for your opinion, man; sniff,sniff..,I think it might stink like the other thing we all have.
tf = Pac 12 was a weak conference in 2017 (over rated USC reason #1) so I drop ASU out of the top ten and the rest out of the top 20, any other ?s?
Do you actually have a critique of my methodology other than you don't understand it, cuz I think that's on you dude.
It is neither arbitrary nor based on SoS since it is an indication SoS. It's based on the concept that end of season rankings indicate teams trending up for the next season, also that a head to head win is plus one point and a loss is minus one point. Next add the idea that a win against a ranked team could be two or three times as difficult as a win against an unranked team, that's:
rtw(3) + watwr(1.5) = df [difficulty factor]
Sure, you could choose to use the formula:
Rtw(4) + watwr(2) = df or
rtw(3) + watwr(1) = df or
rtw(9) + watwr(3) = dff
i think any variation leads to the ACC Atlantic, SEC West and B1G East bunched in the top 25 which is they way it should be since they are regarded as the three toughest divisions in CFB.
Do you have a methodology of your own to offer?
If not thanks again for the opinion, it was scintillating!
IMO, you can only calculate SOS after the season is over and you have all of the results. There is too much roster turnover and player improvement in CFB to just use last year's results to predict this years SOS. I'd be willing to bet one team in the B1G east heavily underperforms to their preseason ranking. For the rankings to work out (4 teams in the top 15 in most preseason stuff I've seen) the losses between OSU/PSU/UM/MSU have to be really evenly distributed and that probably won't happen. MSU and PSU are probably a QB injury away from a rough year with basically zero experience for their backups. Michigan is in for a rough year if the OLine doesn't take a big step forward. OSU has enough talent to where their floor these days is probably 10-2.
Outside of the B1G East, ND is carrying a pretty high preseason rank and I can see them turning in a worse season than last year. @NW is being presented as a tough game even though NW looks to me to be set for a 6-6 / 7-5 season. At the end of the season M will probably be in the top 15 of SOS but I doubt it will be top 3 like is currently being predicted.
That's why I ignore SoS, it's even more mythical than the National Championship.
More over, with the damn moneyballitis that's going around everyone is drowning in a sea of numbers, it's a lot of data but none of it has much relevancy it seems.
the first game of the season playing a ranked rival is a tough schedule game, no matter if ND finishes 11-1 or 5-7; playing your top three rivals on the road is part of a tough schedule, playing for a reactionary fan base who is prone to throw their coaches in the hot seat quickly makes it a really tough schedule.
Yes, here's just about the best methodology out there....drum roll please...click this link: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/sosR…
There you go. The correct methodology is to use a calibrated statistical model to project team quality (FPI does a good job of this) and then calculate the chances an average team would have of going undefeated in the games on a given teams schedule. That's what a good SoS does.
Your methodology is immensely flawed because it assumes the #1 team is as difficult as the #25 and you make a bunch of other terrible assumptions.
S&P+ and Bill Connelly will come out with soon and his methodology is the same (but his ranking methodology is different).
For those wondering without clicking the link, UCLA is 1st, Michigan is 8th, OSU is 49th.
No biggie, in your haste to tear down what I had taken 10 minutes to put together, you obviously missed where I said: "Even using this data".
My attempt was to use the data given to paint a more accurate picture of schedule difficulty. So if you have a methodology using the data given to contribute is what I meant.
Maybe you can do a quick online search and find someone else's work to use against mine.
But I assure you anything to do with espn or strength of schedule will only bolster my belief that I'm right and you're not.
If Michigan beats OSU, of course Michigan will be B1G east division winners by any tie breakers. If OSU defeats Michigan, there's not a chance they will take Michigan over OSU, especially if OSU defeats the west division's team in the B1G championship game. Now, if there are only few other one loss teams out there, Michigan's strength of schedule will help possibly getting the 4th big over a weak conference champion in the PAC12 or Big 12.
Maybe I'm in the minority, but going to the CFP without beating OSU wouldn't feel right.
I wonder what they're schedule would rank if they played ohio state? Lol
I’ve got an idea... beat Ohio!
I'd rather see Michigan beat Ohio St.
Wait...you're leaving Nebraska out of the equation...they might out hit UM
Somebody who can post a new thread, post this:
According to fbschedules, Ohio State has one of the toughest starts in college football next year, playing Oregon State, Rutgers, and TCU.
That's one tough game and a bunch of trash! We got an equal schedule with that and we're playing a MAC school. To be honest, it looks like they based this solely on power five status and did not even use common sense.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/06/the-7-toughest-starts-college-football-2018/
We ain't losin to anyone mufukuz!