Preview: Ohio State 2013
Essentials
WHAT | Michigan vs Ohio State |
---|---|
WHERE | Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | Noon Eastern November 30th, 2013 |
THE LINE | Ohio State -17 |
TELEVISION | ABC |
WEATHER | partly cloudy, mid-30s 0% chance of rain 10 mph winds |
Overview
Run Offense vs Ohio State
Ryan Shazier got better.
The Northwestern blip was just that: a blip, as Michigan's offense retreated back into its shell against Iowa. Thanks to buckets of Iowa turnovers this staked Michigan to a lead until late, but this was back to the pain factory. It was probably worse than usual, actually, as Gardner only suffered one sack. Take that out and Michigan rushed for 74 yards on 28 carries, a thrilling 2.6 yards an attempt.
This is still forward, I guess, and therefore represents progress. The kind of progress last experienced in the Dark Ages, but progress nonetheless.
This is too depressing to contemplate for very long. Michigan again went with a bunch of inside zone, whereupon Iowa linebackers fired into the gaps over and over again like Notre Dame did. Michigan has no idea how to deal with that other than "execute better"; they have no way to back those guys off; they have a bunch of play action on which the fact that the linebackers run literally to the line of scrimmage before going "oh" and backing into short zones is okay for the defense.
The unit they're going up against is not quite a vintage OSU outfit; it is still plenty good enough to see Michigan to another grunting performance under 100 net yards. Once you remove sacks, Ohio State's run offense is in a tier below Michigan State's face-crushing unit with Wisconsin and Michigan; they're giving up just under 4 yards a carry.
The existence of a healthy, clueful Ryan Shazier is particularly bad for Michigan. Two years ago he was a limping freshman who showed up in the hole against Denard Robinson and ended up left in the dust. This year he's nearing OSU records for TFLs against the worst team in the country at giving them up. His strengths—slashing into the backfield as soon as he reads run foremost amongst them—line up perfectly with Michigan's weaknesses.
The line is a slightly better matchup than it was last year with Jonathan Hankins in the NFL. They have not replaced him with a similar space-eater. Michael Bennett, their best DT, is 285. Unfortunately, he's a Jibreel Black++ type player with 10 TFLs and 5.5 sacks to his name. But that's another depressing section. Against the run he will be more moveable. Not that it's going to matter.
Key Matchup: Denard Robinson versus NCAA Eligibility Rules
[Hit THE JUMP for just don't hit the jump]
Pass Offense vs Ohio State
Hide yo kids, hide yo quarterback. The aforementioned Bennett is a problem against the weak interior of Michigan's line. Weak. I need a new word here that means WEAAAAAAAK; it doesn't appear one is coming.
Ohio State's acquired 36 sacks this year from a variety of organic and blitzing sources. Bennett has his; sophomore Noah Spence has 7.5; freshman Joey Bosa has 5. Various other linemen suck up almost all of the rest, leaving just Shazier's 5.5 and Curtis Grant's 2.5. OSU will send the occasional linebacker but is mostly content to drop back in coverage and see if one of their three effective rushers can get to the passer.
That is a terrible omen for Michigan. OSU will probably fling Shazier at Gardner and drop six plenty, which gives them 3 or 4 plausible avenues to Gardner on any given play. Iowa's single sack comes after Michigan giving up 19 in three weeks and is not likely to last.
When not getting buried under a wall of meat, Gardner will try to hit Gallon and Funchess, and basically only Gallon and Funchess. This will probably not go that well as OSU drops into the routes Michigan can run, which are few, and Gardner makes the kind of decisions you make when you are expecting a 300-pound ferret to burst into your chest at any moment.
Key matchup: Devin Gardner's Sternum versus Shattering Into A Thousand Pieces
Run Defense vs Ohio State
best case scenario
Foremost amongst the thousand depressing things about this game is Ohio State's superlative ability to manball its opponents. 242 pound Carlos Hyde has been tackled for loss this year.
Once.
Hyde is averaging 7.7 yards a carry despite not playing in OSU's first three walkovers and getting just five carries in OSU's equivalent of the Delaware State game, a grisly 76-0 beating of Florida A&M. He's done this without many distorting long runs. He had a 55 yarder against Illinois, but it's not like his stats are a Carlos Brown combination of 80 yarders and nothing.
But you knew that already. The #1 thing on Chris Borland's All-America highlight is a goal line stick of Hyde that anyone who saw live had a internal monologue that went "touchdown… OHHHHH NO WAY," because people do not stick Carlos Hyde. It just does not happen. They hit him and at best Hyde slides off to the side with his legs churning and picks up 2 YAC. Combine that with Braxton Miller and an offense that will happily screen you to death if you try to load the box and you get a lot of situations in which the best case non-Borland scenario when you try to tackle Hyde one on one happens five yards downfield.
Right: Miller. He's bounced in and out of the lineup with injury but has still rolled up 738 yards at 6.4 a pop without even bothering to remove sacks. You have seen him play against Michigan twice; you know the game-changing ability his legs bring. He's improved as a passer, as well. Between Miller and Keny Guiton, OSU QBs are over 1,000 yards on the season at 7.3 yards an attempt, without even bothering to remove sacks.
Finally, Ohio State has a three-headed scatback that is over 1,000 yards itself. Jordan Hall is the primary guy; freshmen Ezekiel Elliot and Dontre Wilson chip in. All are RB/slot hybrids to some degree, with Wilson the most slot-like and Elliot the most tailback-like; these guys flit out of the backfield to grab screens, take outside runs, sometimes just take inside runs, and are preferred in OSU's option game to Hyde for obvious reasons. Collectively they're averaging 7.4 yards an attempt.
As a team Ohio State has nearly 3500 rushing yards at nearly 7 yards a carry and 36 touchdowns. But it won't work in the Big Ten.
Michigan's run defense is pretty good and they have an edge weapon or two (read: Jake Ryan) that can allow Michigan to be more aggressive in the box without giving up a ton of easy edge stuff. It's not going to be enough. This is an A+ offense against a B+ defense, and to some extent they're going to get exposed.
Key Matchup: Brian's Head versus Mounting Internal Pressure. This is my worst nightmare as a fan. Michigan is going to watch this death machine rushing offense beat them by using spread concepts with huge animated question marks over their heads, and they'll ignore that as they go forward so they can go back to the glory days where the incredibly loaded 1999 offense rushed for 3.2 yards a carry.
Pass Defense vs Ohio State
The structure of the offense and Miller's continual improvement have made this another area to consider with a jaundiced eye. Miller and Guiton combine to average 68% completion rate and 7.8 yards an attempt; Miller has 19 touchdowns against four interceptions; Guiton has 14 touchdowns against two interceptions.
OSU only passes about 38% of the time because of the previous section, and a large chunk of those throws are wide receiver screens, so maybe 30% of the time an Ohio State quarterback will survey the field, looking for someone downfield. This results in the kinds of problems you'd expect: zero pass rush as a run-focused DL is caught off guard and is trying to contain Miller at all costs (13 sacks allowed on the year); guys running open as linebackers and safeties suck up; cornerbacks left on an island by Miller demanding safety attention.
Miller is still not Dan Marino, but it hardly matters in an offense that rarely finds itself in true passing situations—when you average seven yards a carry, third and seven is a standard down and how often are you even in third and seven?—and uses Miller's assets to open up great cavernous holes for him to explore with buckets of time.
OSU's WRs are not great. Devin Smith is probably their best; he makes spectacular catches and is their best downfield threat. Philly Brown is the guy with the most catches; often those are of a screen nature. They do throw to the tight ends, with Jeff Heuerman and Nick Vannett combining for 28 receptions; three-headed scatback has 36 receptions itself. Entertainingly mouthy Evan Spencer is a short-yardage third WR.
Michigan's held up pretty well here this year—actually that's an understatement when they have almost as many interceptions as they've ceded passing touchdowns. This is a good secondary, especially when they're not futzing with the safeties for no reason. Michigan will bring Gordon into the box, leave Ryan on the field over the slot, and try to live with Countess and Taylor in tight-ish coverage that may leave them exposed deep. But it might not.
This will be a sidelight to the run game, one on which Miller has plenty of time when Michigan isn't going for all-out blitzes on third downs. It'll be up to the secondary to cover long enough for Miller to engage terrifying scramble mode, and then Michigan will have to contain that.
Key Matchup: Mattison dialing up pressures that might confuse Miller on third and longs, which will occasionally happen?
Special Teams
Drew Basil has attempted all of nine field goals on the year against 66 extra points. I'm cold. I'm so cold. Aussie punter Cameron Johnston is averaging 44 yards a kick, and has only allowed six returns on his 34 attempts, though one of those was returned for a touchdown. Philly Brown is their punt returner; he is meh. Kickoff returns are almost irrelevant but Ohio State is pretty good at both phases.
Key Matchup: AHHHHHH YOU put it through the uprights to make the final score look a tiny bit better
Intangibles
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- The xenomorph Max Bullough implanted in Gardner's chest finally bursts through on a third and thirteen, grabs the ball, and throws it directly into Noah Spence's helmet. Gardner is then tackled by all eleven Ohio State players. Eventually, Spence wanders into the endzone… FOR AN OFFENSIVE SCORE BECAUSE EVERYONE'S CHASING THE XENOMORPH… that makes the final 76-7.
- You perceive one football program that has successfully modernized itself without internal strife, starting with their seemingly hidebound dinosaur coach, and one program that holds up 3.2 yards a carry with four NFL offensive linemen, Tom Brady, David Terrell, Anthony Thomas, and Marquise Walker as the pinnacle of football.
- You are going to the game.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Braxton Miller gets hurt… actually, no, that won't work.
- Braxton Miller and Kenny Guiton get hurt, leaving Cardale Jones in to not play school? No, that probably won't work either.
- It's the only thing you can do to prevent yourself from crying.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for They Are Good, +1 for We Are Not, +1 for Showing Manball Proponents What Manball Really Is, +1 for Michigan OL versus OSU DL Matchup Is Puppy Versus Woodchipper, +1 for WE GON DIE)
Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Obvious)
Loss will cause me to... thank God it's over.
Win will cause me to... DIV BY ZERO ERROR.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Michigan wins! At losing.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- 35,000 Ohio State fans.
- A giant John Flansburgh rips off one of the press boxes and starts playing "She Was A Hotel Detective" at maximum volume level. The game is cancelled midway through the third quarter. A John Flansburgh statue is installed, commemorating his valiant effort.
- Urban goes for two.
- Ohio State, 39-0
November 29th, 2013 at 3:22 PM ^
Walk away for a bit and take a vacation. Go to Disney with Mrs. Cook. Read about motorcycles. Hell, buy one. Do something else for a month until the Random Bowl.
Now, I've got your back here. I'm going tomorrow and I might suffer or I just might not. We could get pounded but I was at The Horror and sometimes the unexpected happens. I'm a realist in that changes need to be made but I'm saying Borges goes out on his sword. Vegas and Brian say we probably lose; I'm going to see if we might win.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:01 PM ^
I love the optimism, but the Horror probably isn't the best rallying cry for tomorrow.
November 30th, 2013 at 12:22 AM ^
Based on the board sentiments of late the Horror might sadly be an apt assessment. Michigan was, I believe, a 31 point favorite in that game and a great many have Ohio scoring a margin at least that great.
David vs. Goliath? In our house?
The game is four quarters. I'm going to show up and see if Borges goes out on his sword, if DG can release his "inner ND game" and if the seniors can win.
November 29th, 2013 at 3:24 PM ^
You obviously haven't been listening to the press conferences. According to both Hoke and the OCs, we are totally undefeated in practice this year. We always have a great week.
Just because we'll probably lose in the The Game doesn't take away the FIVE wins we've already racked up this week alone.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:38 PM ^
Seriously, our real record is something like 77-4. Some people's expectations were wayyyy to high going into this year if a .950 winning percentage isn't enough for them.
November 29th, 2013 at 3:25 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 3:37 PM ^
I would say that 39-0 is just as unlikey but not impossible as your notion of a win, so what's the difference? Are you really suggesting that if Brian's ideas might upset you that he should not write them?
November 29th, 2013 at 3:54 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 6:38 PM ^
If you believe that fans predicting in an online forum that Michigan will lose a particular game is "quitting" and not showing "backbone" and "support," then logically you believe that only by predicting victory in each and every game can Michigan fans not be "quitters."
Do you think there is any difference between predicting in an online forum that Michigan will lose a game and booing the team at Michigan Stadium?
November 29th, 2013 at 6:55 PM ^
seem to relish the idea of a Michigan loss. You are obsessed with predicting a loss to the point of not even granting there being a chance of winning. Seriously, some of you need to read what you were writing on the eve of the Akron game. Michigan was never as good as you thought the night before Akron, and they aren't as bad as you now believe.
Sadly, most on this blog need Michigan to lose as an affirmation of their loathing. If Michigan wins, undoubtedly suicide hot lines around the country will be jammed with Michigan "fans" looking for help.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:04 PM ^
Oh yes, because the reason we keep coming back here for years and post thousands of times is because our local S&M club closed down and we don't have anyone around to kick us in the balls to make us feel "real".
Jeebus.
People are down about the season, and then there are people who come in and whip out the faux "rah rah" to be contrarian. Congrats on noticing that fans thought the team was pretty good after 2-0. Small sample size blinded us all to the reality that this team couldn't evolve offensively, and the line simply couldn't block anyone. But to say this team isn't as bad as we all think is faint praise; maybe they'll score 14 points and only give up 32. We should all be ashamed for underestimating the outcome and being gluttons for punishment.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:57 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 8:02 PM ^
today, there's a hell of a lot more evidence that M is bad team than there was evidence that M was a good team the day before Akron.
Brian and other rational people make decisions based on evidence. you can't predict the future.
today, there is only one reason to think M will win tomorrow, and that is faith (some may say blind faith, but IDK if I'd go quite that far).
November 29th, 2013 at 8:23 PM ^
The mere fact that somebody predicts the home team will lose means they "relish" a loss?
I guess you subscribe to the "Predictions are an indication of virile manhood" school of thought.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:06 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 7:59 PM ^
I suspected as much.
I've made my views on booing in the stadium clear here many times: I believe booing the Michigan team is never justified, regardless of what's happening in the game.
The fact that you can't separate what a bunch of anonymous posters are saying on the internet from actions that real live fans engage in at the stadium, in real time, during the game is weird.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:31 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 3:40 PM ^
If you don't like what Brian writes, don't read it, or go start your own blog. Like all of us, he's entitled to his opinion and doesn't deserve to be attacked for it. Sports is fun because it always creates differing opinions. Let's try and keep it fun, try and keep things in a bit of perspective here.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:39 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 3:41 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 3:47 PM ^
Well Brian certainly seems to be at his best when the team is at their worst, so we always have that writing to look forward too
November 29th, 2013 at 4:01 PM ^
So I guess the only winning move is not to play.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHWjlCaIrQo
November 29th, 2013 at 4:11 PM ^
Looking forward to the mercy kill tomorrow at noon. Ohio State 71, Michigan 3.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:15 PM ^
Hi there troll.
November 29th, 2013 at 5:23 PM ^
Uniqenam, you're missing some letters on your screen name, aren't you? Isn't it spelled: uniqeNAMBLA?
November 29th, 2013 at 6:48 PM ^
That's a stupid, unnecessary comment that's clearly intended to be personally inflammatory.
If it were up to me you'd be in Bolivia until after the bowl game.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:41 PM ^
careful what you wish for, Don... you might get drafted. you didn't register with selective mgoblog service did you?
November 30th, 2013 at 2:09 AM ^
Nope, can't serve on MGoBlog. Served a dime in the Montana state prison in Deer Lodge for gun-running, mail fraud, and white slave trade.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:35 PM ^
I would bet on Ohio State winning, let's say, 31-13, but given the pessmism on here I thought it was worth noting that the average point differential in home games under Hoke is Michigan +21.6.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:37 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 4:45 PM ^
Michigan will play very well defensively, but the scoreboard will not be an indication.
To keep this game competitive, we will need a TO margin of at least +3 (with us not turning it over at all), less than 25 yards in penalties, Wile will have to have zero bad punts and return coverage (kickoff and punt) will have to be excellent. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Probably a single-digit percentage chance.
I think Ohio scores 50, but only b/c they'll have the ball the entire game. Wile will punt at least 8 times, assuming we don't turn it over.
I've been watching Jerry Hanlon's chalk talks on the rivals site. The Xs and Os have been watered down for the lowest common denominator and are, therefore, not illuminating. However, what's interesting is to listen to Coach Hanlon (an OL Guru^TM) talk about the problems he sees with the OL. In the run game, we get good initial push, but we don't sustain blocks. (Stay engaged with your man to the echo of the whistle.) In pass protection, our interior guys don't drop deep enough, which makes it hard to see--and therefore pick up--those twisting DTs and cross-blitzing LBs.
I don't think our G-C-G rotations will be able to break a season's worth of bad habits in one week. Can they? Sure. Will they? Probably about a 2% chance.
November 29th, 2013 at 6:44 PM ^
Is this stuff paywalled?
I've thought all season that Hoke ought to hire Hanlon as an OL consultant to Funk. If I were Funk, I'd want that too.
November 29th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
Comes alive on MGoBlog. Who knew?
November 29th, 2013 at 5:04 PM ^
delete
November 29th, 2013 at 5:06 PM ^
I thought this post was going to be depressing and sarcastic. I think Brian's starting to come around. I think by Saturday he's going to be feeling the upset 1969 style..
November 29th, 2013 at 5:50 PM ^
We suck on offense; they don't. However, they have also occasionally sucked on defense, and we don't.
There are conditions that would allow us to be competitive:
1. Al Borges realizes job is on the line, resulting in:
A. Almost exclusive use of spread formations with 3-5 wide.
B. Short and medium passing from shotgun and/or pistol
C. Inside zone running with QB option runs and screens as counters/constraints.
D. Refraining from playaction passing out of the I-form and/or all verts until they back off.
2. Our offensive players execute these to the best of their abilities
3. Aggressive, disciplined defense
4. A few lucky breaks for us
5. A few unlucky breaks for them
While I expect our defense to play to B+/A- levels, I don't expect to see #1 (it has not yet happened), am unsure whether it's healthy to expect #2 and never expect so much as hope for #4 and #5.
Yet none of these things are beyond the realm of possibility. Borges HAS called games that resemble #1 (albeit not really this year), we have managed #2 (CMU, ND, Minnesota, Indiana, OT against NW) and we've benefitted from #4 and #5 at times.
I still give us a .25 chance of winning. It can happen...it's just not likely to.
Prediction: Ohio 35 - Michigan 13
November 29th, 2013 at 6:02 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 6:09 PM ^
if both Alabama and FSU win out they will be in the NC regardless of the Michigan score. He will remain third in the BCS. Should either of them lose he will be in the NC game if he beats Michigan and MSU regardless of the scores.
Therefore, if he has a safe lead against Michigan he will pull he regulars to rest them against MSU. The margin of victory against Michigan will be less than 20.
A moral victory for Brandon and Hoax oops Hoke. OSU will do what it can to keep Hoke as the Michigan coach.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:36 PM ^
If Alabama loses to Auburn then OSU will need all the style points it can get to stay ahead of Auburn. And I can certainly envision a scenario where Auburn beats Alabama.
November 29th, 2013 at 6:21 PM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 7:57 AM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 6:22 PM ^
I keep feeling like I should be sucked into the hivemind of fans that think UM has no shot against OSU but I just don't see it. I don't see this defense giving up gobs of points and while I can see the offense struggling, their soft schedule pads the stats. For example, half of their sacks were against Cal, Purdue, and Illinois.
November 29th, 2013 at 6:39 PM ^
Cal, Purdue, and Illinois all have better OL than we do.
November 29th, 2013 at 11:00 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 6:37 PM ^
I expect the game to be resonably close early on because, admittedly, OSU hasn't had to play anywhere particularly tough on the road, and the one halfway-tough game on the road (at NW) happened in meh weather. So there's that hope, plus the fact that Miller might just have an off day throwing the ball. But the problem remains taht unless this offense makes a dramatic one-game improvement (which won't happen), all of Borges's tricks may work for about a quarter before OSU counters and then that's it. I do expect OSU will try to run the score up, and maybe that will lead to some late-game closeness as they go for the kill and fail more times than not.
November 29th, 2013 at 6:38 PM ^
There will be some freak play where the defense scores a TD but I think it will end 65-13! It will be the most embarrassing loss in our history! Oh well.
November 29th, 2013 at 7:06 PM ^
that I would consider it a mild victory to hold them under 40
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