Run/Pass balance on 1st down
I was reading over at GBMWolverine.com and a poster mentioned how against Akron, UM ran on first down 20/27 plays, and against Uconn they ran on 23/27 first downs. He also said against ND the balance was about split in half.
That got me thinking that maybe Al's 1st down play calling is too predictable and conservative (which has probably been mentioned here) and why we would often see the box stacked on first down. Thus when we lost a yard or 2 due to the extra players in the box, Devin is now forced to make more hero-like plays on 2nd and long translating into mistakes.
Do you all think maybe in the bye-week they will think about mixing it up a lot more on first down as they get ready for the B1G schedule? Maybe Al was intentionally holding back a lot against our very inferior opponents on first down to not give up too much film, despite Brady always praising whatever team we play no matter how good or bad? Obviously it backfired quite a bit by rattling Devin.
Something tells me the coaches are going to come out firing a lot stronger vs. our B1G opponents (maybe minus MSU as I think they will be expecting a field position battle) and we may be pleasantly suprised, as long as the team doesn't cough it up too much.
just some thoughts I hope you all expand on.
this is my first thread, be easy on the OP :)
September 25th, 2013 at 5:03 PM ^
I would have to agree that there is a good chance the play-calls for Ahron/Uconn are not representative of play-calls for the conference games that are upcoming.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^
So you are cool with the DeBord/Carr policy of "Bad opponent? Kick up your heels, take off your shoes and let Bonzo call the plays"? Woooow.
If Borges doesn't have a stunning game plan against OSU this year, it's his ass (or should be).
September 25th, 2013 at 5:14 PM ^
How about we get to OSU first before you fire the coach over that game?
September 25th, 2013 at 5:20 PM ^
Just saying, if you think bad opponents is time for hiding and good opponents is time to let 'er rip, he better be saving his best for last. He certainly did not do that last season.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^
You are assigning a lot of meaning to run and pass plays here. When did running on first down equal hiding?
Al had a gameplan for Akron and Uconn that, to me, looked like manball. It didn't work for any number of reasons but to call it hiding I think is a little much.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:29 PM ^
That's fair. Problem is, Manball is no better than hiding. It's passe and Borges is going to kill us by being too slow to realize it.
When you go from Auburn to out of football to San Diego State, you probably aren't Michigan material any longer, especially when Urban Meyer has raised the bar for Hoke's stated standard (conference titles). I'm glad so many of you seem to be patient with this obvious devolving of our offensive design.
September 25th, 2013 at 6:15 PM ^
September 25th, 2013 at 7:34 PM ^
I agree about Borges, he costs too much money for the types of gameplans and playcalling he executes every Saturday. I think if he has a bad game versus Ohio State again at the end of the year, then I think he should go, three years is enough, he hasn't done too many flashy things, and has had way too much bad playcalling/gameplans.
September 25th, 2013 at 7:44 PM ^
Again, can we maybe wait until the OSU before these posts? Lets maybe just take things one game at a time.
September 25th, 2013 at 9:23 PM ^
Hall monitor?
September 25th, 2013 at 9:28 PM ^
Gameboy with the ultimate cop-out in online sports commentary: "They know more than you do!"
You see the gameplans on Saturdays. You see how hopeless and non-sensical the running game is. I'd really hope Hoke is not "judging" that to be anywhere near satisfactory or acceptable, regardless of circumstances.
Hoke is a defensive-minded guy so he needs a really, really good OC to work with him and Mattison. He has the budget to get that guy. We are getting pretty damn close to being able to say with certainty that Al Borges is not that guy.
September 25th, 2013 at 6:13 PM ^
and hoping the kids could do it. Those were the games that he was hoping would be the proving ground for a line that could overpower other lesser teams' defenses. Dunno why this is so hard to understand. You can condemn or question this from various perspectives, but at least acknowledge that this was the plan.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:48 PM ^
And when the plan doesn't work maybe you should adjust at least a freaking tad.
September 25th, 2013 at 6:10 PM ^
david from wyoming - aren't you a longtime member? why does your profile say you just joined today?
September 25th, 2013 at 6:13 PM ^
david from wyoming was a long time member that got banned last night.
david from wy is just a big fan of state postal abbreviations.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
September 25th, 2013 at 5:07 PM ^
Against Akron and UConn you should expect to be able to run every 1st down for more than -2 yards per carry.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:11 PM ^
i agree...which would explain Al's calls...but when they are stacking 8-10 in the box, it's hard to run against any D-1 team, especially when they kow it's coming.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:15 PM ^
Wisconsin runs the ball even though everyone knows they are going to. So does Stanford. Our players should be able to do the same.
While I agree that Borges was stubborn (particularly in the UConn game), I also believe that we should be able to execute against UConn.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:51 PM ^
When we have Stanford and Wisconsin's size and experience, maybe this is feasible. We don't, and even Stanford and Wisconsin have counters to their base plays to keep defenses from cheating like they are against Michigan. Borges keeps running the damn ball even against defenses that out number his blockers in the box. That is stupid against anyone when you do have the personnel.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:16 PM ^
And at what point do you realize that what you should expect is not reality?
Borges is the football version of Tom Crean. Aloof demeanor, aura that he knows something the rest of us don't yet frequently dumb-as-shit on gameday.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:19 PM ^
So how is he supposed to act if he honestly does know more about football than the rest of us? Have you ever thought about that?
September 25th, 2013 at 5:23 PM ^
Borges knew a hell of a lot about football ... in 1993.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:39 PM ^
September 25th, 2013 at 6:15 PM ^
was pretty de rigueur then, too.
September 25th, 2013 at 7:03 PM ^
It's pretty amazing then that we've won 77% of the games Borges has coordinated, if his football knowledge is 20 years out of date. Come on man. We're only three weeks removed from his O dropping 41 points on Notre Dame. When we stop turning it over four times a game, we'll score more.
September 25th, 2013 at 7:54 PM ^
a few posters who have sadly gone by the boards in recent days.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:54 PM ^
Let's just throw out how good the defense has been during Borges' reign. I guess we should never criticize a guy who called an absolute shitty game against our biggest rival and who is squeaking past some of the worst teams in FBS. This is Michigan fergodsakes, and what I'm seeing offensively isn't good enough.
September 26th, 2013 at 11:06 AM ^
It's kind of funny that you complain about Borges being untouchable while making Mattison to be above criticism. Both of them have had good and bad games as coordinators. 2011 ND, 2011 OSU, 2012 South Carolina and 2013 ND are a few games where our O certainly outperformed our D.
September 25th, 2013 at 9:33 PM ^
77% ain't cuttin' it with how Brandon wants to raise the profile (and of course prices) for this program. Look at Borges history. Things often get worse the longer he's there, not better (at least in the somewhat rare times he was at a school longer than two years).
And throwing out "bottom line" arguments while ignoring the obvious details is so hackneyed. Come on, man.
September 25th, 2013 at 7:49 PM ^
If we stop throwing to the other team 4 times a game, our offense will score a lot more points.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^
I know the staff would like to run to set up the pass, but it seems like this team needs to do the reverse. I also wonder if DG will loosen up some if he's given the chance to throw on first down rather than on second or third and long.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:20 PM ^
yea..it seems like maybe his confidence is being rattled by the fact that he knows he's going to have to convert on 2nd and 3rd and long almost every set of downs. Obviously Al wants to set up 2nd and medium so Devin can make some confident shorter throws for 1st downs and also it will set the defense on its heels. But it's obvious right now the team just cannot generate half the push on first down with the way Bama, Stanford or Wisconsin could, and then combine that with predictability.
I want manball as much as anyone, but I hope they try and mix it up more on first down with this bunch so the defense has to respect both run and pass. I think they will, but it is whatever the coaches feel is best for the team obviously.
Also, Devin has to stop throwing picks for any of this to work...I trust him more than Denard.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:12 PM ^
I don't care what the run/pass balance is as long as we move the ball down the field without turnovers.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^
Against Akron, we were just discovering that our line couldn't hold up, let alone open holes, against an weaker opponent. Up to that point, we did well against Central (probably surprising them by running zone) and game planned against ND assuming we wouldn't be able to run up the middle.
Against UConn, Gardner was more or less crippled, if only mentally, and couldn't hit a pass no matter how easy or open.
So, I'm not that surprised really that we didn't have any balance on 1st down.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^
Someone alert Borges!!!!!!!! He should be giving Gardner more chances to throw interceptions on Michigan's first play of a drive.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:17 PM ^
I think we should throw the football more.
September 25th, 2013 at 5:22 PM ^
haha with you username
September 25th, 2013 at 6:07 PM ^
We really should be able to run on 100% of the plays against Uconn and Akron and still win the game easily. Take a look at OSU last week, they ran the ball on every down in the 2nd half and still scored 21 points. The much bigger issue is that against Uconn and Akron it shouldn't matter if we run mostly on 1st down, we should be getting at least 4 yards from that run. Don't worry about play calling, it will be fine against our conference opponents, it won't be 95% run on first down. What is worrisome is that the runs were not effective...
September 25th, 2013 at 6:18 PM ^
I looked up Fitz's and Devin's splits. Fitz is averaging 3.3 ypc on 1st down and while that is the most common running down and there are first and goals that may skew those numbers, Devin is much better on first down than any other.
At this point in this season, DG is completeing 63% of his passes on 1st down for 10.2 ypa. It goes down to 60% on 2nd down then drops to 46% on third down. He also has 4 ints on third down, all when the distance was 6+yds.
I would think passing to setup the run would be a better tendency at this point, especially with so many defenses playing the run.
Interesting to note: Devin is at his best running on third down, averaging 6.5 ypc, so as the down increases, Devin has been a better runner and worse passer.
September 25th, 2013 at 6:40 PM ^
Per CFBStats, here are the first down splits by game. These numbers are different than those mentioned in the OP, so I could very well have drawn from the wrong game log, but this sounds about right:
GAME | RUN | PASS | PENALTY |
CMU | 9 | 11 | 2 |
ND | 11 | 11 | 3 |
Akron | 8 | 10 | 1 |
Uconn | 11 | 6 | 2 |
September 25th, 2013 at 6:52 PM ^
September 25th, 2013 at 7:14 PM ^
You're right, I went back through the Akron UFR just to make sure and I pulled the wrong stat. For the Akron game, it comes out to 10 pass plays to 19 rush plays for the first downs. For ND, if I counted right, we still ran it about 20 times on first down to 12 passing first downs. There's no good way to tally it, so treat these as approximate.
September 25th, 2013 at 6:52 PM ^
September 25th, 2013 at 6:55 PM ^
Mind=blown
September 25th, 2013 at 7:26 PM ^
These teams being Akron and UConn, you should be able to run on them with relative ease. So why not run on first down the majority of the time? Against better opponents, yes, you're going to mix it up more.
We'd still be complaining about the line after these last two games but we wouldn't have had to experience the scare of our lives both times if not for the turnovers. Devin stops that, and we're breathing much easier.
September 25th, 2013 at 7:48 PM ^
For those of you who think Borges is obsolete; doesn't understand football as well as you; is incompetent; or is not and never was good at his job - for those of you who think any of that, and therefore think he should be fired, then your bellyache is misdirected.
You should want Hoke fired. Hoke hired Borges. Hoke has kept him on staff. If Borges is so awful, and if "all of us" can see it so darned well...why can't Hoke? If mgonation thinks Borges is a poo-poo head, why can't Hoke see this?
In fact, Mattison clearly respects Hoke a great deal. If Mattison thinks Hoke is a good coach, but Hoke thinks Borges is a good coach, and we in mgonation can't get over just how crusty and unimaginative Borges is...(Doesn't that mean or imply that the entire coaching staff is...underwhelming? Or at least that they have bad judgment?)
There's a pronounced tendency on this site -- not just among users -- to scapegoat. It's as clear as day.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:04 PM ^
with reader 7, that was one of the best damn posts i have seen in a long time. oline/blocking must execute a helluva lot better on first down or any down for that matter. that is the only way to help settle gardner down. of course against the b1g, i think we'll see a little more mix, but again, if we can't run it and devin is still struggling, it won't matter. and honestly, imo, this staff is just counting the minutes until Shane Morris can take the helm so they can fling it around and become more balanced.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:32 PM ^