Hello: Chase Winovich
Jefferson Hills (PA) Thomas Jefferson linebacker Chase Winovich got his first offer from Pitt, and his home-state school appeared to hold the early edge in his recruitment ($):
Thomas Jefferson has sent four players to Pitt since the recruiting class of 2007, and Winovich knows about that pipeline. In fact, it's not hard for him to imagine himself joining it.
"I see the talent they have produced; my neighbors are the Nix brothers, and I watched them and the DeCicco's play at Pitt," he said. "Personally, I love Pitt. I love the coaching staff, I love Pittsburgh, I'm a hometown guy. I want to keep my options open but I can't really find too many flaws in Pitt. I'm looking at them a lot."
Childhood favorite Ohio State offered in early April and immediately vaulted to the top of his list ($):
"This really changes things for me, and I have to say it's a dream come true since I'm an Ohio State fan," he admitted. "I'm not ready to commit right now to anyone, but Ohio State is in my top-three. I can't deny that I love it, and it's going to be tough to find a school that will top Ohio State."
"Pittsburgh was the first school to offer me and they're right in my backyard, so they're a favorite of mine," Winovich added. "I'm still looking for that third school and I'm not shutting anybody out right now."
A short time later, Michigan came through with an offer, and after two visits to Ann Arbor—the second for the Spring Game—the Wolverines made a serious move of their own ($):
“Michigan is definitely in my top three,” he said. “The only reason they really weren’t before was because they (hadn’t) offered. It would have been them above Ohio State, but obviously they hadn’t offered me at that point. It hurt that they didn’t offer before Ohio State got involved, but I’m just happy they’re in now and they’re definitely in my top three. I’m excited about them.”
At various points over the last month—heck, the last week—insiders from all three schools have been confident that Winovich was leaning towards their program, despite him never publicly naming a leader. Today the speculation ended as Winovich announced his commitment to Michigan, according to multiple outlets.
GURU RATINGS
Scout | Rivals | ESPN | 247Sports | 247 Comp. |
3*, #28 OLB | 3*, #29 OLB | 3*, 78, #30 OLB | 3*, 87, #49 OLB |
3*, #41 OLB, #535 Ovr |
The scouting services are almost eerily in lockstep when it comes to Winovich; 247 is a slightly low outlier, and otherwise Winovich is placed just inside the top 30 outside linebackers in the class. Going by position rankings, Winovich is four spots away from a fourth star on Scout and ESPN, nine spots away on Rivals, and 21 on 247.
The services have a general consensus on Winovich's measurables, pegging him at 6'4" and around 215 pounds; his own highlight tape lists an updated weight of 218 as of last month. The Wolverines recruited Winovich as a strongside linebacker, and that frame fits the mold for the position.
SCOUTING
In-person scouting of Winovich is pretty scant at this point; if he hit the camp circuit before his junior season, nobody wrote about it, and in the lone camp he's been to this spring—the Rivals Camp Series event in Pittsburgh—he and fellow commit Michael Ferns were overshadowed by less-heralded prospects ($):
The biggest names at the linebacker position coming into the Pittsburgh Rivals Camp were four-star Michael Ferns and three-star Chase Winovich. While both prospects had solid performances, they were outdone by lesser-known linebackers during Sunday's competition.
Neither future Wolverine made the top ten defensive performers list, so no further details are provided on what constituted a "solid" showing.
ESPN sees Winovich as an outside linebacker all the way, praising his "long, sturdy frame," sideline-to-sideline range, and tackling ability. They also like his instincts...
Quick off the mark showing outstanding downhill ability vs. the inside run. Maintains good leverage on the ball and isn't fooled by misdirection. Although he needs to become a more physical take-on guy, his quick hands allow him to shed and get off blocks. Demonstrates the quickness, balance and agility needed to avoid blockers and make plays in tight spaces. Moves through traffic very well, showing excellent sideline-to-sideline range. Has the playing speed needed to chase down ball carriers when in long pursuit.
...and ability to drop into coverage or come on the blitz in third-down situations:
Shows the ability to open his hips, turn and run. Demonstrates good underneath route awareness with a closing break on underneath throws and screens. Will need to gain experience as a coverage defender. His ability to run and make tight turns indicates potential as a man coverage defender. Displays very good blitz timing with a burst to the quarterback. Developing a repertoire of moves is a must.
Areas for improvement are the usual: add muscle, refine technique. After an almost entirely positive rundown of Winovich's game, ESPN says he has "very good potential" ... as a special teams player, though they do note the possibility of early situational playing time.
247's Clint Brewster took a look at Winovich's junior film and came away very impressed, listing only bulk and pad level—natch—as areas for improvement; the rest sounds quite good ($):
[H]as an instinctive first step and blows plays up before they even happen. Winovich plays with outstanding aggression and is very explosive. He has excellent speed and can make plays from sideline to sideline. Winovich has enough speed to chase down running backs far down field. He does a nice job of using his hands to shed blockers and scraping to get to the ball carrier. Winovich is really long at 6-foot-4 and can really get in between passing lanes. He is excellent when dropping into coverage. Winovich can be a force coming off the edge as an outside linebacker and can really close on the quarterback. He is very good at finishing off his opponent when he tackles. Winovich has great form tackling.
Caveats about scouting based only on film go here—they're called "highlights" for a reason—but after looking at individual game cut-ups from Winovich's Hudl page, I see a lot of the same positives that Brewster does.
The coaches have made it clear to Winovich that they like him on the strong side, going so far as to show his film side-by-side with Michigan's current standout at the position ($):
“Coach Hoke wasn’t there (last time),” Winovich said noting the difference between visits. “The environment was a lot different. All the players were there this time, I got to sit in with the coaches and really discuss everything about me and my future there, and they seemed more excited about me this time around. Kurt Mattes the film guy there he put together a (video) at the request of Coach Mattison. It’s this film of me one play and then Jake Ryan the next play, and then it goes back and forth every other play. It showed how comparable we are. (Ryan) would do one play and then it’d be the exact same play or scenario (with me) on the other side. It was really cool seeing the comparison.”
Winovich has a very similar frame to Ryan—who was listed at 6'3", 220 lbs. as a recruit—and displays a lot of the same athletic traits, especially in his ability to explode off the snap. Whether he can maintain that athleticism while adding 25-or-so pounds (Ryan is now listed at 241), not to mention develop Ryan's maniacal playmaking ability, is a question that won't be answered until he's on campus for a couple years.
As for the "would you let him date your daughter?" test, here's an excerpt from a Chantel Jennings article($) on Chase's relationship with his older brother, Peter, who played for Bowling Green from 2004-2008:
But there were similarities for many years. Peter took up baseball, so Chase did, too. Peter took up basketball, so Chase did, too.
But Chase went on to become student body president. Peter never did that. And Chase decided to start taking piano lessons last year. Peter never did that, either.
“As much as I like him following in my footsteps, he has definitely always done his own thing,” Peter said. “With football I think there was a lot of pressure on Chase … and he has been able to do it and do even more in his own way, so that has been awesome.”
Yup.
OFFERS
Winovich's offer sheet included Arkansas, Florida State, Michigan State, Mizzou, Northwestern, Ohio State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. That's a pretty impressive list for a consensus three-star; it will be interesting to see if Winovich moves up the recruiting rankings during his senior season, as college coaches seem to be seeing something that the recruiting services aren't at this point.
HIGH SCHOOL
Thomas Jefferson High School boasts five WPIAL (Western Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic League) Class AAA titles, including three straight from 2006-08, as well as state championships in 2004, 2007, and 2008. The Jaguars have produced six recruits rated three-stars or higher in the Rivals era; four of those players went to Pitt, including four-star prospect and current Oakland Raiders guard Lucas Nix.
STATS
Via Scout ($):
This past season, Winovich helped his team to a 11-1 record, another conference title and an appearance in the WPIAL Class AAA semifinals. He earned first-team all-conference honors, finished with 69 tackles, three forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries.
FAKE 40 TIME
247 lists a 40 time of 4.65, which appears pretty reasonable when you watch Winovich's film—he's got great straight-line speed for a linebacker prospect. I'll give it two FAKEs out of five.
VIDEO
Junior highlights:
Winovich's first step, play diagnosis, movement in traffic, and tackling ability all stand out on tape; you can see that linear speed at the :29 mark when he chases down a perfectly set-up slip screen from behind to save a touchdown.
Again, you can see much more of Winovich on his Hudl page.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Winovich is destined for the strongside linebacker spot; when he gets to campus, the only returning players at the position will be a senior Jake Ryan and a redshirt freshman or sophomore Mike McCray. While Winovich appears likely to need a redshirt year to add weight and learn Greg Mattison's defense, he should be in the mix for playing time as early as his redshirt freshman season, and at the very least should contribute on special teams.
I've had Michael Ferns projected as a strongside 'backer in this space before, but my guess is he'll come to campus as an inside linebacker with Winovich in the fold; Ferns has the versatility to play inside or outside, while Winovich is more of a pure outside type.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Michigan now has 11 commits in the class of 2014 and should be finished recruiting linebackers with Ferns and Winovich in the fold. The Wolverines currently have room to take ~15 players in the class, though that number should swell to around 20 when all is said and done. The main targets moving forward are SDE Da'Shawn Hand, 3-tech/SDE Malik McDowell, slot receiver Artavis Scott, and a trio of highly-ranked defensive backs: CA ATH Juju Smith, CA CB Adoree' Jackson, and IL CB Parrker Westphal, with the latter the most likely to end up in the class. They'll also likely take one more offensive lineman, though the top candidate for that spot is less clear—IL OL Jamarco Jones is the highest-rated target and has Michigan among his favorites, but Ohio State is presumed to hold the edge in his recruitment.
His offer sheet suggest that the rankings are out of line with his true ability. How else can you explain his offer sheet in relation to the rankings? Either the scouting services know something the coaches don't or vice versa. We're all banking on Hoke and Mattison (and MSU, OSU and a host of other schools for that matter) knowing a bit more than Rivals, Scout, 247 and ESPN folks.
Offer sheet.
I really get more exicted when we get 3* players with offers from the, LSU, Alabama, OSU, and USCs of the world than when we land a 4* with offers from Cincy, Uconn and Louisville...
Except Winovich doesn't fit that profile, aside from OSU.
Winovich: (slovacian): being or belonging to a winning tradition.
That is why
.
yes
.
Made me lol.
Love this site!
Because we get excited about every kid that UM lands.
Plus he was a strong OSU recruit so that adds to the cake.
I really could care less about stars (only 5 stars regularly turn into at least starting caliber - anything less turns into a probability game). Jake Ryan was a 2 star with no major offers outside of the MAC - he is our best player on defense. Winovich could be the best LB to ever go to to Michigan or leaving the program in 2 years (or obviously something in between!) - thats just the reality of college football. It's a crapshoot with these recruiting services and makes for fun discussion on the board but out of every class of 20-25 you hope that 2-3 turn into stars, 4-6 into eventual starters, and 3-4 capable backup or role players. The remainder will not make it, leave the program, have an injury, etc.
You just stockpile the best talent you can, hope your coaching staff evaluations are superior to others, and player development is good, and go with it. Just enjoy and relax - none of us know how any of these kids are going to turn out. Enjoy the day and let's root em on.
Jake Ryan 3 stars Rivals
34 player in Ohio
True, no other major offers, but 34 in Ohio and 5.6 Rivals rating is not exactly 2 stars, either.
less also not foget Kovac... a WALK-ON at one time.
People are more excited about this kid than a standard middling 3-star because:
a) Hoke can do no wrong right now.
b) Winovich had an offer from Ohio State. Take away the OSU offer, and there would probably be 20% less interest.
I don't think that really changes the point of my post.
(directed to Magnus) So, I was curious, given the discussion on 3 star vs. offer list for Winovich, to cross reference via your TTB rating system, and see how you rated other LB prospects. I see you gave Winovich a 79, which seems in the ballpark.
As I said, I was curious to see how you had rated linebackers in past classes. You had Desmond Morgan at a TTB rating of 76, which seems about on a par with Winovich.
Did you have a TTB rating on Jake Ryan? That would be an interesting comparable to Winovich IIRC, Ryan came in without much hype, redshirted under RR, and then blew up in his freshman year (when Brian went apopleptic with Ryan's "good play / terrible play" performance.)
Also, I noticed that you had Frank Clark at a TTB rating of 59. Either your rating on Clark was low, or he has really developed since he got to Michigan, or the hype on Clark is unwarranted, and you rated him correctly (below average starter.) Which is it?
I did not have a TTB Rating on Jake Ryan. He was in the 2010 class, prior to my TTB Ratings. I did name him the Most Underrated recruit in his class, if that gives any indication.
Clark was rated as a 59 because he was recruited as an outside linebacker. I didn't really see him as a WILL or a SAM. I would say that he has developed beyond a 59 at this point, so the rating was a bit off - we'll see by how much.
One of the problems with ratings is that positions change, guys hit growth spurts, etc. Clark was about 205-210 lbs. coming out of high school, and now he's 277 going into his third year of school.
Fair enough. It is impossible to know who will have a growth spurt, gaining weight, height, and strength, and to know who has already hit close to their max in high school, where they are bigger and stronger than everyone else, but get passed up (in size, etc.) over their senior year of high school and first year of college.
So, given his growth, what would you rate Clark now, at his position on the line? 70? 75?
If that was his only offensive play of the year, I have two questions:
1. Why the hell don't they give him the ball more? And,
2. Should M be recruiting their offensive stars if they keep this stud off that side of the field?
Goodness his reels were fun to watch.
My first impression is he could have an immediate impact on special teams. With tackling ability, play diagnosing skills, and that kind of straight line speed, he could be force on kickoff and punt coverage.
I don't think Hoke would burn his redshirt for just this purpose, but his redshirt frosh year, you could see him tearing it up on special teams.
Good work Hoke and Co.
We're excited because it's a good player at a position of pretty high need in this class. Your sites go crazy over commits too, even when they are 3 stars. Chill out and stop raining on other people's parade.
And learn to write English.
That was in response to a buckeye poster who has since had his replies deleted.
...those were the days.
The only real difference is that we don't actually make rings for it. They both mean the same thing, really. I think I answered your question, but I can't really tell because your grammar and sentence structure is atrocious.
Go easy on him, he's probably an OSU student.
to the board. You're a disappointment.
congrats!! last time i checked academics didn't win championships on the field, thats about all you can claim since 1948 huh? I know 97, no campionship game and the coaches voted for nebraska. I'm usually not a dick on here until somebody else is. That and I've been drinkin a lil. As I said, we/ I wanted him you got him but it is june
I'm not trying to be irrational guys,just saying last week you were moving on cause he was a buckeye now hoke is better than meyer and bla bla bla
uhhhh? that last three "welcome" post would be a good place to start
uhhhh? that last three "welcome" post would be a good place to start
drops mike walks of stage or what guys?? I come here to "argue" a little bit and everytime i post on here it gets quiet, i take it as well as i dish it and i expect it to be rough sailing here so lets hear it lol
Yay!
/s
Those clowns are in total denial about Michigan, despite the evidence that we are for real and are going to take it to them toe to toe.
Even when they acknowledge the evidence, they then proceed to ignore it. Like the guy that grudgingly admitted Michigan is a great university, can recruit lights-out, has Mattison/NFL pedegree, etc. etc., then proceeded to predict that maybe he was wrong and that if Meyer stays for 12 years, Michigan still might actually be able to win . . . two or three games. What a moron.
As if just by mentioning "Urban Meyer" over and over again like some kind of magic incantation, all reality ceases.
Based on how Meyer decided to lecture the Big Ten on how lame they are, I definitely think he thought this would be easy.
He also made some derogatory comments about Michigan's coaching when he was broadcasting The Game right before he was announced publically as the OSU coach. You could almost see him rolling his eyes and thinking "What a bunch of rubes, I'm going to roll these clowns."
I'm sure he thought coaching Ohio State against Big Ten competition would be on-the-job retirement, like being a Home Depot Greeter 2 days a week. A way to stay de-facto retired but still dip his toe into the CFB coaching waters.
We are going to make him want to retire for real.
Here are excerpts from the offer lists for Rivals' #29 outside linebackers recently:
David Johnson in 2013: SOUTH CAROLINA, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, NC State, Pitt, Vanderbilt
Lorenzo Phillips in 2012: LSU, Alabama, Baylor, Florida, Nebraska, Pitt, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Sean Duggan in 2011: BOSTON COLLEGE, Cincinnati, Illinois, Michigan, Oregon, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Holmes Onwukaife in 2010: FLORIDA STATE, Baylor, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Texas Tech, UCLA, Utah, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Winovich's offers from Ohio State and Florida State aren't much more impressive than Auburn, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Florida, Nebraska, Tennessee, Oregon, Florida State, UCLA, etc. for those other guys.
Winovich is universally a 3 star OLB across the board though and that is the difference...
Phillips was a 4 star on Scout and ESPN
David Johnson wasn't even rated as an OLB on Scout and was a 4 star on ESPN
Sean Duggan didn't have as impressive an offer list.. Winovich also had Michigan, Oregon and West Virginia but add OSU, Va Tech, FSU, Stanford, Tennessee, Miami, Missouri, and suddenly he has a significantly better offer list than Duggan
Holmes Onwukaife wasn't rated as an OLB on Scout and ESPN
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