Thank you for clarifying! We need Wisconsin, Iowa, NW and Illinois to lose, and Nebraska to win. IIRC these teams play a lot of each other the next 3 weeks, so it's going to be very tight if it comes to this in a tiebreak scenario.
Correct. It's also easy to see this in action when you look at publicly available side/money splits for each game.
An example...trying to remember the exact game from this last weekend...I think it was Texas vs K State. That line opened Texas -3.5, moved up to Texas -4/4.5 mid week, then landed on Texas -3.5 at game time.
Something like 80%+ of the volume of bets was on Texas, as was the money, all week and at close. If Vegas was like, oh shoot, we need to balance this thing out! They'd have two problems: 1) They move the line to something like Texas -6. There's no guarantee people are going to start taking K-State. How far would they have to move it to convince people to start betting K-State? This now opens the door to...
2) Sharps love middling bets. If a bunch of sharp money is already on Texas -3.5, and now they're being offered K-State +6 because nobody is taking K-State at 3.5 and 4.5, they'll hammer K-State +6. If Texas wins by 4 or 5, the sharps cash both sides. If Texas wins by 6, they cash the original Texas bet and push on K-State. If I am remembering that all correctly, and that was the game I'm thinking of, obviously Vegas took a big loss as K-State lost by 3 and covered.
Another good example might be the Georgia vs Missouri game from last weekend. Everyone I talked to said Georgia at home is going to KILL Missouri. But that line opened UGA -15.5 and only moved in Mizzou's favor (which is why I took Mizzou). There had to have been a lot of sharp money on Mizzou. I don't have the numbers, but my guess is the betting volume was very heavy on UGA, and the money was either on Mizzou, or closer to 50/50.
My understanding, if things come down to a UM / PSU / OSU 3-way tie, the likely scenario is the tiebreak will be determined based on the cumulative record of your conference opponents. We all play the same teams in the B1G East, so those are a wash.
So you compare the final records of the teams played in the B1G West.
Michigan has played Purdue, Minnesota & Nebraska. Those teams are 12-15 combined
PSU has played Iowa, Illinois and NW: 15-12 combined
OSU has played Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota: 12-15 combined
PSU currently has a big advantage in a tiebreak scenario. One question I had on this, maybe someone can help: Do they look at those B1G West opponents overall records (which I reflected above), or their W/L records in B1G play only? If it's B1G play only, my numbers above are incorrect.
That is a great point and excellent analogy. I completely agree, re: early vs late line movement.
There is also merit to this in the fact sharp bettors bet early and the public comes in later in the week. Vegas shapes lines with the help of these early bettors.
Knowing this, sharps will play cat and mouse, sometimes placing smaller "phony" bets against their actual, much larger bets, knowing they are being watched by the books and shaping lines. So if I'm a sharp, and love Michigan -4.5, I'll go ahead and put one or more smaller early week bets on PSU, expecting some movement down to -3.5, then hammer Michigan -3.5 if/when it drops later in the week. Best case scenario is I middle when the game ends and Michigan wins by 4.
Interesting point, I was thinking about it from Vegas' perspective and not necessarily the public in trying to forecast whether Vegas has a read on whether he will coach or not. The line is UM -5 today. If news starts to leak that Harbaugh is likely going to be suspended, whether that is worth points or not, I believe Vegas would move the line. Then, as others have mentioned, between that hypothetical scenario and Saturday, the public and sharp money will determine if they think he's worth xx points. It could move to -3 and sharp bettors who got PSU +7 would LOVE to hammer it and get a middle between Michigan -3 and PSU +7
From a Michigan fan's perspective and talking about narratives, my opinion is this team really started to really take off and dominate once Harbaugh's 3-game suspension ended. We looked "ok" against UNLV, ECU and BGSU. Jim's first game back vs Rutgers...ok maybe a little rusty, still pretty dominant. But then BOOM, Nebraska, MSU, IU and Minnesota didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as us. Nebraska was the first game where I was like, wow, they could play this game a million times and I don't know that Michigan would lose once. I really felt a difference after that game.
I'm not saying that's the truth he's worth a lot of points. But in my mind that's a narrative I think is out there.
You may be right - I typically base my plays off of line movement and not so much what I think might happen. These later games typically don't have much early morning line movement because everyone is focused on the noon and 3:30pm games, but this one has already moved down to +13 this morning. Makes me think you're on to something. Get in now before it goes to +12.5 if you like CU.
I agree. Games like this, if you like either side wait for a 2.5 or 3.5 to pop up. Problem is if you like Bama you're not going to get -2.5. I have seen -3.5 as of this morning if you like LSU.
I am strongly considering a 3-team 7 point teaser with LSU +10, USC +10 and K-State +10.5. I don't usually tease college, but these all seem like tight games.
First time poster but I'll try and be active on this weekly thread. I follow lines pretty closely throughout the week. I'll share specific games of personal interest I've been watching in terms of line movement tonight, picks tomorrow.
K State +3.5 / 4 @ Texas - Early week line was UT -3.5, moved to -4 / 4.5 mid week, and now it's back to steady 3.5 / 4. I'm not playing it, take it FWIW.
OSU -18.5 @ Rutgers - Line has not budged all week. My take based off this? OSU wins in the 17-24 range. Good luck rolling the dice.
ND -3 @ Clemson - Early week was ND -3.5 steady, moved to -3, still some stray -3.5's out there with juice. Plenty of lines like that this week. Hasn't made it's way down to -2.5...ND moneyline would be the play for me, but I'll stay away.
Nebraska -3 @ MSU - Early week was NU -2.5, moved to -3 yesterday, now seeing a NU -3.5 pop up. Typically home dogs move the opposite way? Seems sharp, but I hate betting against Sparty when they end up winning.
OU -6 @ Ok State - Early week OU -5.5, moved to -6 across the board, now starting to see -5.5's pop up more consistently.
Mizzou +15 / 15.5 @ UGA - This one intrigues me. Early week was UGA -16.5. I assumed Joe Q Public would hammer UGA up to -17, at least. But it's gone the other way. This could be closer than we think, or at least within 2 scores.
PSU -8.5 @ Maryland - Upset potential? Tuesday this was PSU -10.5. It quickly got bet down into the 9's and is now a solid 8.5. Congrats if you got MD +10.5, that would be my lock of the week at that number.
UW -3 @ USC - Tuesday it was UW -3.5, got down to -3 mid week, and now -2.5's are popping. It will be close, IMO. If you like teasers, get USC +9 in there.
LSU +3 @ Bama - Early line was Bama -3.5, has moved consistently to -3. Eh.
Purdue +32.5 @ Michigan - Hasn't budged. Moving on.
Oregon St -13.5 @ Colorado - Again, hasn't moved. Saw a -13 pop up but it came back.
Me and two buddies are headed down. The most reasonable hotel we could find is a hotel 20 miles outside of the city...but looking for recommendations for anything closer at a reasonable price. I'm assuming most anything on VRBO and/or airbnb is booked up by now...
I have zero stats to back this up, but I've heard that he's "The Straw that Stirs the Drink," a big "Glue Guy," and perhaps even an "X Factor" -- Although that last one has yet to be verified with my sources.
This game felt ominous to me going into it, then Brooks went down and I knew we were screwed. A couple of things from my notes, on the topic of Abnormal:
1. Due to COVID there have been a lot of teams, particularly mid-majors, that have played each other in back-to-back games - Much like UM-MSU except that these COVID b2b's are played on consecutive days, whereas UM and Sparty had a couple of days in between.
These COVID b2b's are notorious for having massive point swings from one game to the next. At first I think the general public/Vegas consensus was that it was mostly a coincidental trend but once it kept happening again and again and again daily bettors like myself and Vegas started taking notice.
For example, in Game 1 of COVID b2b, team X would be a 12-point favorite at home against team Y and win by 25. Game 2 the very next day team X would only be an 8-point favorite. Why the shorter point spread, when they easily covered a 12-point spread the night before against the same exact team? Well, for whatever reason team Y ended up not only covering the +8 but also winning outright in that 2nd game. As I type this out I realize I unintentionally described Sunday's game.
I would be interested to see the data on the results of the COVID b2b's this year, or any games where teams played b2b up to within a few days. Going into this game I wondered if it would fall into that "trend/anamoly/peculiarity" ... whatever you want to call it. Do I believe it did? Not sure. Hoping someone smarter than me can help explain. I figure any MSU fan or UM pessimist would tell me I'm dumb for even considering it and that I'm making up reasons for why we lost other than we just got beat. Whatever, buddy. I think MSU deserved to win that game the way that the chips were falling. At least admit that it's very hard to win a game when one of your key starters gets injured in the first 5 minute..... oh yeah, my next point.
2. Obviously you don't game plan for a key player getting injured. In the scheme of 1 game, that player being knocked out really hurts you if he goes down at the beginning of the game. It really really hurts you when other key players also get in foul trouble.
Again, no duh. The point is we all know Michigan has an excellent coaching staff. My hope is that shines through here, and that our staff can adjust and scheme in a way that at the worst is able to marginally account for losing Brooks, and at best makes us better. I don't see how the latter can be accomplished, but I also didn't see MSU making the NCAA's 3 weeks ago. LFG Blue.
I know these Tiers are super official...opinion alert...If Michigan is in tier II, and Penn State is in tier IV, and we only beat them by 4 at home...
As Ace said, these tiers will change constantly. But if a tier II team beats a tier IV team by 4 at home (not that home court matters much this year), something needs to be adjusted there. Maybe an Austin Davis-less Michigan belongs in tier III.
Eh, I think he's lost his edge as Michigan's head football coach, for sure. But you can't change a person. I agree to disagree. I think we'll see that fire again when he's back coaching in the NFL.
There are a few certainties in this life: Death, taxes, and as long as Jim Harbaugh is able to, he's coaching football. There are a few NFL fan bases and franchises that would like to have him, and probably already have him on their hires list. I think (some) Lions fans are in that bunch. He'll land on his feet, head, or ass somewhere, my prediction is back in the NFL.
Here's a specific. Real easy one. Michigan's corners aren't fast, skilled or experienced enough to play single-high man coverage on ANY receiver in the Big 10.
If your D-Coordinator only knows/wants to coach a certain style - i.e. single-high, tight man coverage in one-on-one matchups between his DBs vs WRs - and we obviously don't have the personnel to cover them? Force the guy to change his scheme or replace him.
Michigan DBs have been getting TORCHED because of our coverage scheme in the secondary - This year specifically because we don't have the personnel to play it, but also in years past when we maybe have DBs talented/fast enough to implement it, but great teams like Ohio State scheme around it and fucking shit pump us on drag routes that go for 30 yards every time, and rack up 60+ points. It has proven that it doesn't work so DO SOMETHING TO FIX IT.
Do I need to provide the definition of insanity, or do we all have it memorized now in year 6? It's your job as head coach to see this obvious glaring issue and do something about it. Shit like this infuriates me.
I thought this same thing - i.e. Harbaugh a fit for the Lions because he wouldn't have to uproot his family. But only briefly.
Putting myself in his shoes: If I was hired as head coach to rebuild one of one of the most storied programs in all of college sports history, only to end up as an epic failure turned resignation, would I then take the opportunity to stay and live there after my resignation ... for any job ... would I even consider it?
Hell no. I'd be getting the fuck out of dodge. Maybe he actually is off his rocker, but I think it's crazytalk to think that Harbaugh wants to live anywhere near Ann Arbor if/when he steps down. And if/when he steps down, I don't think it's going to be a mutually amicable situation with the University. He's too firey of a guy to go out peacefully. This is all just my opinion, of course. But I don't see it happening, I think there's maybe a ~2% chance he even wants to stay in Michigan after he's done.
Sure, Minny-soda doesn't play anyone. But they went 11-2 last year with a big bowl win over a big SEC school...and not Mizzou or Arkansas. Like, a real SEC football program. I'm almost positive every 'Soda fan will take that every year for the rest of eternity.
What has PJ ever done poorly as a coach? I see a guy who does a lot with the talent he's able to recruit. He goes above and beyond to motivate and fire up his players in big spots, something that I think makes a huge difference at the college level.
Not to pump up the enemy here, but I think PJ's doing a very fine job there so far. Now let's go kick his candy ass.
This is my take as well. I can't tell you how many times my friends and I were screaming at the TV during Shea's tenure, "JUST THROW A DAMN 50/50 BALL UP TO YOUR 1ST-ROUND-DRAFT RECEIVERS AND LET THEM GO CATCH IT!"
Then he did. And they caught it, most times. Down double digits late in the 4th quarter.
The greatest shame of the Harbaugh era so far, IMHO, has been the wasted years that were DPJ and Nico Collins.
And this talk about what deflates a defense? How about getting 21 hung on you in the first quarter and knowing that you can't stop their passing attack because the receivers are that much better than you?
Our offensive play calling has been PITIFUL and ANEMIC, plain and simple. I love Michigan football with all of my heart. But I don't expect much different this year.
The most "Uhhhhhhh...... ya think?" news in sports history.
Time for Coach K to take a page out of the Urban Meyer playbook and fake a heart attack. Is he still teaching those integrity courses down in Columbus?
Serious question tho: Why can't this happen in football?
Just going off of the one common opponent (Iowa) this line actually makes sense. Assuming the old bettors adage that home field typically gives the home team +3 points:
Michigan beats Iowa at home by 7. Adjusting for home field advantage, Michigan is ~4 points better than Iowa on a neutral field.
PSU beats Iowa at Iowa by 5. Adjusting for the away game, PSU is ~8 points better than Iowa on a neutral field (night game should arguably be more like 3.5 points).
8 - 4 = 4 : PSU 4 points better than Michigan on neutral field. Add 3 points for home field and you land at PSU -7.
All that being said, BPONE. Give me PSU laying the -7.5 ALL DAY. Michigan has not shown they can keep these type of games even remotely close under Harbaugh. I have ZERO hope of actually winning this game.
Nobody believes in you. Go in with a chip on your shoulder. Win or lose, Go Blue!
“We didn’t expect the double ball screens where they both came off, and they slipped a lot which created a lot of space for them," Brazdeikis said. "They had a great game plan.”
Per Beilein:
“If you’re hedging it hard, then everybody’s got to come in and go back, and in the first half we had some problems with that and getting back to a couple guys."
When Michigan went cold offensively down the stretch in game 1 we couldn't get a stop on defense in critical spots, let alone most of the game (yes, Poole's poor D had something to do with that, too, not just MSU's game plan). We're going to have to be able to make stops, period. This time we'll know what's coming and should be able to slow them down. No surprises this time around.
Admittedly, I was starting to get a little concerned that Z's hook has become his "go-to" when he drives the paint - as opposed to what I call his quick little "slip" lay-up that always seems to go in even with blockers present.
But in the last couple of games I've noticed him using both - The slip layup when he beats a guy off the dribble, the hook when he doesn't.
I still think he could get that slip layup in in some of those cases where he has gone to the hook, but I'm fine with it: They seem to go in at the same rate and let's face it, the hook is just so damn much cooler.
YOU SHOULD ALL FEEL ASHAMED WITH YOURSELVES THAT YOU WANTED YOUR IN-STATE RIVALS AND LEAGUE LEADING TEAM TO LOSE BECAUSE YOU WANT YOUR TEAM TO PROSPER. HOW DARE YOU.
Plan for the double high ball screen they consistently run for Winston since Ward went out. The offense now goes entirely through #5. IU had a good game plan for it.
Was it Iggy who says they were completely unprepared for it? That's what killed us on D. We'll scheme it up for the game in EL. No surprises this time.
I would say DDJ "has more potential." Brooks is who he is at this point. I think Coach B sees the potential DDJ has and is trying to squeeze that out before tournament time.
i.e. DDJ has the potential to be a big x factor down the stretch if things really start to click for him. I don't see Brooks having that same potential.
The last sentence of this is spot on; to me it's pretty simple: When we're struggling to get good looks who does the offense run through to help open things back up?
I don't know that that's necessarily any one go-to player - It may be dependent on the situation. But my answer for this game would have been Iggy. Iggy had a terrible first half, no doubt. But I felt like the point in the 2nd half where UW went up 6 and it was clear that Poole went ice cold you had to find a way to get Iggy more involved in the offense.
Brian touched on avoiding the post up, but I've seen Iggy do this before at a very high rate - Either getting a good look or getting to the foul line.
You can't convince me that WISCONSIN's defense was that good and that they just shut Iggy down. I would've liked to have seen the offense run through him when the rest of the team seemingly had a bucket of ice water dumped on them in the 2nd half.
I have been wondering the same thing all season. Excellent analysis as to why this may be happening, SRJK. My thoughts:
3. Could it be both?
4. Do we have proof that Teske is or has ever been a solid defender in iso post up situations? i.e. could it be that he's still developing this part of his game.
Going into the season I think I just assumed he played good iso D in the post. But that's admittedly an assumption, likely bias. My guess is that statistically he's an above average defender overall.
A good field goal kicker has the tendency to be overlooked when you're a double digit favorite almost every week (or find yourself in a classic look-ahead dog fight).
That time in the 2018 season is officially over and so is this thread. The kicker is Jake Moody. If I see Quinn Nordin trot out there on Saturday I'm going to lose my shit.
All credit to them for "finding a way to win games." I think they deserve a top 25 spot for that alone. But their ranking is more of a testament to them simply just being 8-2 in a P5 conference.
Other 8-2 teams in the top 25:
#7 LSU would easily handle Cuse on a neutral field.
#25 Boise might be a pick 'em vs Cuse?
So, there's your variance I guess. Just a lot of 3 and 4 loss teams in the top 25 this year they're getting ranked over because 2 L's in the P5. Looks like I'm not the only one with this opinion.
Cuse keeps it to single digits on the neutral field but never leads. All due respect, their top 15 ranking is questionable at best. Their best win is... DD win @Wake Forrest? 10-point win vs NC State?
Probably their best win is a loss: 27-23 @Clemson in that first game Clemson officially decided to make Trevor Lawrence QB1.
They gave up 42 to Western. They have an OT loss to Pitt and an OT win vs UNC. The ACC is absolute garbage this year.
I know it's last minute, but at least this is based on where the last minute lines settled. Only giving my best of the best based on how lines have moved:
Recent Comments
Thank you for clarifying! We need Wisconsin, Iowa, NW and Illinois to lose, and Nebraska to win. IIRC these teams play a lot of each other the next 3 weeks, so it's going to be very tight if it comes to this in a tiebreak scenario.
Correct. It's also easy to see this in action when you look at publicly available side/money splits for each game.
An example...trying to remember the exact game from this last weekend...I think it was Texas vs K State. That line opened Texas -3.5, moved up to Texas -4/4.5 mid week, then landed on Texas -3.5 at game time.
Something like 80%+ of the volume of bets was on Texas, as was the money, all week and at close. If Vegas was like, oh shoot, we need to balance this thing out! They'd have two problems: 1) They move the line to something like Texas -6. There's no guarantee people are going to start taking K-State. How far would they have to move it to convince people to start betting K-State? This now opens the door to...
2) Sharps love middling bets. If a bunch of sharp money is already on Texas -3.5, and now they're being offered K-State +6 because nobody is taking K-State at 3.5 and 4.5, they'll hammer K-State +6. If Texas wins by 4 or 5, the sharps cash both sides. If Texas wins by 6, they cash the original Texas bet and push on K-State. If I am remembering that all correctly, and that was the game I'm thinking of, obviously Vegas took a big loss as K-State lost by 3 and covered.
Another good example might be the Georgia vs Missouri game from last weekend. Everyone I talked to said Georgia at home is going to KILL Missouri. But that line opened UGA -15.5 and only moved in Mizzou's favor (which is why I took Mizzou). There had to have been a lot of sharp money on Mizzou. I don't have the numbers, but my guess is the betting volume was very heavy on UGA, and the money was either on Mizzou, or closer to 50/50.
My understanding, if things come down to a UM / PSU / OSU 3-way tie, the likely scenario is the tiebreak will be determined based on the cumulative record of your conference opponents. We all play the same teams in the B1G East, so those are a wash.
So you compare the final records of the teams played in the B1G West.
Michigan has played Purdue, Minnesota & Nebraska. Those teams are 12-15 combined
PSU has played Iowa, Illinois and NW: 15-12 combined
OSU has played Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota: 12-15 combined
PSU currently has a big advantage in a tiebreak scenario. One question I had on this, maybe someone can help: Do they look at those B1G West opponents overall records (which I reflected above), or their W/L records in B1G play only? If it's B1G play only, my numbers above are incorrect.
That is a great point and excellent analogy. I completely agree, re: early vs late line movement.
There is also merit to this in the fact sharp bettors bet early and the public comes in later in the week. Vegas shapes lines with the help of these early bettors.
Knowing this, sharps will play cat and mouse, sometimes placing smaller "phony" bets against their actual, much larger bets, knowing they are being watched by the books and shaping lines. So if I'm a sharp, and love Michigan -4.5, I'll go ahead and put one or more smaller early week bets on PSU, expecting some movement down to -3.5, then hammer Michigan -3.5 if/when it drops later in the week. Best case scenario is I middle when the game ends and Michigan wins by 4.
Late line movement tells the truth.
Yep, my mistake. Fudged the numbers. PSU beat the spread by 27.5, not 45.
Interesting point, I was thinking about it from Vegas' perspective and not necessarily the public in trying to forecast whether Vegas has a read on whether he will coach or not. The line is UM -5 today. If news starts to leak that Harbaugh is likely going to be suspended, whether that is worth points or not, I believe Vegas would move the line. Then, as others have mentioned, between that hypothetical scenario and Saturday, the public and sharp money will determine if they think he's worth xx points. It could move to -3 and sharp bettors who got PSU +7 would LOVE to hammer it and get a middle between Michigan -3 and PSU +7
From a Michigan fan's perspective and talking about narratives, my opinion is this team really started to really take off and dominate once Harbaugh's 3-game suspension ended. We looked "ok" against UNLV, ECU and BGSU. Jim's first game back vs Rutgers...ok maybe a little rusty, still pretty dominant. But then BOOM, Nebraska, MSU, IU and Minnesota didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as us. Nebraska was the first game where I was like, wow, they could play this game a million times and I don't know that Michigan would lose once. I really felt a difference after that game.
I'm not saying that's the truth he's worth a lot of points. But in my mind that's a narrative I think is out there.
You're right, I fudged the numbers, my mistake and thank you for pointing it out. I will correct it in the post - PSU covered by 27.5.
Alright, this made me lol
You may be right - I typically base my plays off of line movement and not so much what I think might happen. These later games typically don't have much early morning line movement because everyone is focused on the noon and 3:30pm games, but this one has already moved down to +13 this morning. Makes me think you're on to something. Get in now before it goes to +12.5 if you like CU.
I agree. Games like this, if you like either side wait for a 2.5 or 3.5 to pop up. Problem is if you like Bama you're not going to get -2.5. I have seen -3.5 as of this morning if you like LSU.
I am strongly considering a 3-team 7 point teaser with LSU +10, USC +10 and K-State +10.5. I don't usually tease college, but these all seem like tight games.
First time poster but I'll try and be active on this weekly thread. I follow lines pretty closely throughout the week. I'll share specific games of personal interest I've been watching in terms of line movement tonight, picks tomorrow.
K State +3.5 / 4 @ Texas - Early week line was UT -3.5, moved to -4 / 4.5 mid week, and now it's back to steady 3.5 / 4. I'm not playing it, take it FWIW.
OSU -18.5 @ Rutgers - Line has not budged all week. My take based off this? OSU wins in the 17-24 range. Good luck rolling the dice.
ND -3 @ Clemson - Early week was ND -3.5 steady, moved to -3, still some stray -3.5's out there with juice. Plenty of lines like that this week. Hasn't made it's way down to -2.5...ND moneyline would be the play for me, but I'll stay away.
Nebraska -3 @ MSU - Early week was NU -2.5, moved to -3 yesterday, now seeing a NU -3.5 pop up. Typically home dogs move the opposite way? Seems sharp, but I hate betting against Sparty when they end up winning.
OU -6 @ Ok State - Early week OU -5.5, moved to -6 across the board, now starting to see -5.5's pop up more consistently.
Mizzou +15 / 15.5 @ UGA - This one intrigues me. Early week was UGA -16.5. I assumed Joe Q Public would hammer UGA up to -17, at least. But it's gone the other way. This could be closer than we think, or at least within 2 scores.
PSU -8.5 @ Maryland - Upset potential? Tuesday this was PSU -10.5. It quickly got bet down into the 9's and is now a solid 8.5. Congrats if you got MD +10.5, that would be my lock of the week at that number.
UW -3 @ USC - Tuesday it was UW -3.5, got down to -3 mid week, and now -2.5's are popping. It will be close, IMO. If you like teasers, get USC +9 in there.
LSU +3 @ Bama - Early line was Bama -3.5, has moved consistently to -3. Eh.
Purdue +32.5 @ Michigan - Hasn't budged. Moving on.
Oregon St -13.5 @ Colorado - Again, hasn't moved. Saw a -13 pop up but it came back.
Official plays to come tomorrow!
Me and two buddies are headed down. The most reasonable hotel we could find is a hotel 20 miles outside of the city...but looking for recommendations for anything closer at a reasonable price. I'm assuming most anything on VRBO and/or airbnb is booked up by now...
I have zero stats to back this up, but I've heard that he's "The Straw that Stirs the Drink," a big "Glue Guy," and perhaps even an "X Factor" -- Although that last one has yet to be verified with my sources.
This game felt ominous to me going into it, then Brooks went down and I knew we were screwed. A couple of things from my notes, on the topic of Abnormal:
1. Due to COVID there have been a lot of teams, particularly mid-majors, that have played each other in back-to-back games - Much like UM-MSU except that these COVID b2b's are played on consecutive days, whereas UM and Sparty had a couple of days in between.
These COVID b2b's are notorious for having massive point swings from one game to the next. At first I think the general public/Vegas consensus was that it was mostly a coincidental trend but once it kept happening again and again and again daily bettors like myself and Vegas started taking notice.
For example, in Game 1 of COVID b2b, team X would be a 12-point favorite at home against team Y and win by 25. Game 2 the very next day team X would only be an 8-point favorite. Why the shorter point spread, when they easily covered a 12-point spread the night before against the same exact team? Well, for whatever reason team Y ended up not only covering the +8 but also winning outright in that 2nd game. As I type this out I realize I unintentionally described Sunday's game.
I would be interested to see the data on the results of the COVID b2b's this year, or any games where teams played b2b up to within a few days. Going into this game I wondered if it would fall into that "trend/anamoly/peculiarity" ... whatever you want to call it. Do I believe it did? Not sure. Hoping someone smarter than me can help explain. I figure any MSU fan or UM pessimist would tell me I'm dumb for even considering it and that I'm making up reasons for why we lost other than we just got beat. Whatever, buddy. I think MSU deserved to win that game the way that the chips were falling. At least admit that it's very hard to win a game when one of your key starters gets injured in the first 5 minute..... oh yeah, my next point.
2. Obviously you don't game plan for a key player getting injured. In the scheme of 1 game, that player being knocked out really hurts you if he goes down at the beginning of the game. It really really hurts you when other key players also get in foul trouble.
Again, no duh. The point is we all know Michigan has an excellent coaching staff. My hope is that shines through here, and that our staff can adjust and scheme in a way that at the worst is able to marginally account for losing Brooks, and at best makes us better. I don't see how the latter can be accomplished, but I also didn't see MSU making the NCAA's 3 weeks ago. LFG Blue.
In the words of the great TB12...
LFG!!!!!
Again, putting a sticky on this comment for when we go to the Final 4. You're not allowed to watch and/or cheer, either.
Putting a mental sticky on this comment for when we go to the Final 4....
I know these Tiers are super official...opinion alert...If Michigan is in tier II, and Penn State is in tier IV, and we only beat them by 4 at home...
As Ace said, these tiers will change constantly. But if a tier II team beats a tier IV team by 4 at home (not that home court matters much this year), something needs to be adjusted there. Maybe an Austin Davis-less Michigan belongs in tier III.
App State -21
…
Sitting on:
App State -21
App State team total over 43.5 (credit Tom Fornelli)
Eh, I think he's lost his edge as Michigan's head football coach, for sure. But you can't change a person. I agree to disagree. I think we'll see that fire again when he's back coaching in the NFL.
There are a few certainties in this life: Death, taxes, and as long as Jim Harbaugh is able to, he's coaching football. There are a few NFL fan bases and franchises that would like to have him, and probably already have him on their hires list. I think (some) Lions fans are in that bunch. He'll land on his feet, head, or ass somewhere, my prediction is back in the NFL.
Here's a specific. Real easy one. Michigan's corners aren't fast, skilled or experienced enough to play single-high man coverage on ANY receiver in the Big 10.
If your D-Coordinator only knows/wants to coach a certain style - i.e. single-high, tight man coverage in one-on-one matchups between his DBs vs WRs - and we obviously don't have the personnel to cover them? Force the guy to change his scheme or replace him.
Michigan DBs have been getting TORCHED because of our coverage scheme in the secondary - This year specifically because we don't have the personnel to play it, but also in years past when we maybe have DBs talented/fast enough to implement it, but great teams like Ohio State scheme around it and fucking shit pump us on drag routes that go for 30 yards every time, and rack up 60+ points. It has proven that it doesn't work so DO SOMETHING TO FIX IT.
Do I need to provide the definition of insanity, or do we all have it memorized now in year 6? It's your job as head coach to see this obvious glaring issue and do something about it. Shit like this infuriates me.
I thought this same thing - i.e. Harbaugh a fit for the Lions because he wouldn't have to uproot his family. But only briefly.
Putting myself in his shoes: If I was hired as head coach to rebuild one of one of the most storied programs in all of college sports history, only to end up as an epic failure turned resignation, would I then take the opportunity to stay and live there after my resignation ... for any job ... would I even consider it?
Hell no. I'd be getting the fuck out of dodge. Maybe he actually is off his rocker, but I think it's crazytalk to think that Harbaugh wants to live anywhere near Ann Arbor if/when he steps down. And if/when he steps down, I don't think it's going to be a mutually amicable situation with the University. He's too firey of a guy to go out peacefully. This is all just my opinion, of course. But I don't see it happening, I think there's maybe a ~2% chance he even wants to stay in Michigan after he's done.
Sure, Minny-soda doesn't play anyone. But they went 11-2 last year with a big bowl win over a big SEC school...and not Mizzou or Arkansas. Like, a real SEC football program. I'm almost positive every 'Soda fan will take that every year for the rest of eternity.
What has PJ ever done poorly as a coach? I see a guy who does a lot with the talent he's able to recruit. He goes above and beyond to motivate and fire up his players in big spots, something that I think makes a huge difference at the college level.
Not to pump up the enemy here, but I think PJ's doing a very fine job there so far. Now let's go kick his candy ass.
This is my take as well. I can't tell you how many times my friends and I were screaming at the TV during Shea's tenure, "JUST THROW A DAMN 50/50 BALL UP TO YOUR 1ST-ROUND-DRAFT RECEIVERS AND LET THEM GO CATCH IT!"
Then he did. And they caught it, most times. Down double digits late in the 4th quarter.
The greatest shame of the Harbaugh era so far, IMHO, has been the wasted years that were DPJ and Nico Collins.
And this talk about what deflates a defense? How about getting 21 hung on you in the first quarter and knowing that you can't stop their passing attack because the receivers are that much better than you?
Our offensive play calling has been PITIFUL and ANEMIC, plain and simple. I love Michigan football with all of my heart. But I don't expect much different this year.
The most "Uhhhhhhh...... ya think?" news in sports history.
Time for Coach K to take a page out of the Urban Meyer playbook and fake a heart attack. Is he still teaching those integrity courses down in Columbus?
Serious question tho: Why can't this happen in football?
Just going off of the one common opponent (Iowa) this line actually makes sense. Assuming the old bettors adage that home field typically gives the home team +3 points:
All that being said, BPONE. Give me PSU laying the -7.5 ALL DAY. Michigan has not shown they can keep these type of games even remotely close under Harbaugh. I have ZERO hope of actually winning this game.
Nobody believes in you. Go in with a chip on your shoulder. Win or lose, Go Blue!
69-0 you say?
You…
Re: Anton Chigurh
You called?
Pro Tip: Don't tell this joke to people living in Rockford...
Don't you think this Rick Pitino take is a little.... oh, I don't know.... premature?
Brian included it in his 3/6 post: Unverified Voracity Needs Otter Lawyers
Regardless, awesome video. "With authority!" -- (Marv Albert voice)
“We…
Per Iggy, from round 1:
“We didn’t expect the double ball screens where they both came off, and they slipped a lot which created a lot of space for them," Brazdeikis said. "They had a great game plan.”
Per Beilein:
“If you’re hedging it hard, then everybody’s got to come in and go back, and in the first half we had some problems with that and getting back to a couple guys."
When Michigan went cold offensively down the stretch in game 1 we couldn't get a stop on defense in critical spots, let alone most of the game (yes, Poole's poor D had something to do with that, too, not just MSU's game plan). We're going to have to be able to make stops, period. This time we'll know what's coming and should be able to slow them down. No surprises this time around.
Then.... why are you here?
#blessed pic…
UPDATE: FREE AT LAST!
Me: Which thread do I comment on?
Still Reg B1G Alive !!! Purdue goes down: This thread! Shut up about my confusing title. I was first!
Me: F*** it. LETS GO BLUE!!!!
…
Z is the freaking man.
Admittedly, I was starting to get a little concerned that Z's hook has become his "go-to" when he drives the paint - as opposed to what I call his quick little "slip" lay-up that always seems to go in even with blockers present.
But in the last couple of games I've noticed him using both - The slip layup when he beats a guy off the dribble, the hook when he doesn't.
I still think he could get that slip layup in in some of those cases where he has gone to the hook, but I'm fine with it: They seem to go in at the same rate and let's face it, the hook is just so damn much cooler.
YOU SHOULD ALL FEEL ASHAMED WITH YOURSELVES THAT YOU WANTED YOUR IN-STATE RIVALS AND LEAGUE LEADING TEAM TO LOSE BECAUSE YOU WANT YOUR TEAM TO PROSPER. HOW DARE YOU.
Plan for the double high ball screen they consistently run for Winston since Ward went out. The offense now goes entirely through #5. IU had a good game plan for it.
Was it Iggy who says they were completely unprepared for it? That's what killed us on D. We'll scheme it up for the game in EL. No surprises this time.
I would say DDJ "has more potential." Brooks is who he is at this point. I think Coach B sees the potential DDJ has and is trying to squeeze that out before tournament time.
i.e. DDJ has the potential to be a big x factor down the stretch if things really start to click for him. I don't see Brooks having that same potential.
The last sentence of this is spot on; to me it's pretty simple: When we're struggling to get good looks who does the offense run through to help open things back up?
I don't know that that's necessarily any one go-to player - It may be dependent on the situation. But my answer for this game would have been Iggy. Iggy had a terrible first half, no doubt. But I felt like the point in the 2nd half where UW went up 6 and it was clear that Poole went ice cold you had to find a way to get Iggy more involved in the offense.
Brian touched on avoiding the post up, but I've seen Iggy do this before at a very high rate - Either getting a good look or getting to the foul line.
You can't convince me that WISCONSIN's defense was that good and that they just shut Iggy down. I would've liked to have seen the offense run through him when the rest of the team seemingly had a bucket of ice water dumped on them in the 2nd half.
I have been wondering the same thing all season. Excellent analysis as to why this may be happening, SRJK. My thoughts:
3. Could it be both?
4. Do we have proof that Teske is or has ever been a solid defender in iso post up situations? i.e. could it be that he's still developing this part of his game.
Going into the season I think I just assumed he played good iso D in the post. But that's admittedly an assumption, likely bias. My guess is that statistically he's an above average defender overall.
…
Fellow AWL here.... Sup.
For anyone who doesn't listen to Pardon My Take, yes, this is a huge deal. I humbly accept this award on behalf of all Ben Mason fans.
I just hope all of the teams have fun.
A good field goal kicker has the tendency to be overlooked when you're a double digit favorite almost every week (or find yourself in a classic look-ahead dog fight).
That time in the 2018 season is officially over and so is this thread. The kicker is Jake Moody. If I see Quinn Nordin trot out there on Saturday I'm going to lose my shit.
Yes, agree, good point about the FSU win.
All credit to them for "finding a way to win games." I think they deserve a top 25 spot for that alone. But their ranking is more of a testament to them simply just being 8-2 in a P5 conference.
Other 8-2 teams in the top 25:
#7 LSU would easily handle Cuse on a neutral field.
#25 Boise might be a pick 'em vs Cuse?
So, there's your variance I guess. Just a lot of 3 and 4 loss teams in the top 25 this year they're getting ranked over because 2 L's in the P5. Looks like I'm not the only one with this opinion.
Cuse keeps it to single digits on the neutral field but never leads. All due respect, their top 15 ranking is questionable at best. Their best win is... DD win @Wake Forrest? 10-point win vs NC State?
Probably their best win is a loss: 27-23 @Clemson in that first game Clemson officially decided to make Trevor Lawrence QB1.
They gave up 42 to Western. They have an OT loss to Pitt and an OT win vs UNC. The ACC is absolute garbage this year.
Stick to sports. Thx.
This. Made me literally lol.
I know it's last minute, but at least this is based on where the last minute lines settled. Only giving my best of the best based on how lines have moved:
Dead nuts lock
Indiana -1.5
Others I like
Colorado +6.5
MSU +3.5
Auburn +14 (if you can find it)
Iowa -10.5
Let's go Blue!!
I think YouTube TV still does a free monthly trial.
If so, get it, record the game. Cancel YouTube TV once the free subscription runs out. Boom.