ostrich man gets played [Bryan Fuller]

Season Kickoff Mailbag Part 1: BPONE And What Happens If Everyone Is Hurt Comment Count

Brian August 21st, 2019 at 12:11 PM

Mailbag! Most of these are twitter questions. I'm not answering anything that's directly addressed in the upcoming season preview, so if your question didn't get picked maybe that's why. Maybe.

The Black Pit Of Negative Expectations is not a mental disorder, it is a defense technique based on a rational extrapolation of past feelings to future events. BPONE trades lower highs for higher lows and is thus a wise approach for people who may wander into the streets to rend their clothing and wail without BPONE.

BPONE is therapeutic. Never tweet during BPONE.

To me, "play every game" implies more than some goofy one-off trick plays. If I had to bet, we're going to see McCaffrey get one or two drives per game. This isn't a Henson/Brady situation where the starting job is truly being contested during the season—Patterson is the starter. It is a spot where Michigan has so much faith in their backup QB that it makes sense to get him some meaningful reps in case Patterson is unavailable at some point.

[After THE JUMP: quit asking me about worst case scenarios you BPONE maniacs]

I wouldn't file running back with the other two. Three standard deviations of bad luck there is

  • Wilson and Charbonnet both get hurt.
  • Turner can't pass protect.

Michigan's offense has a lot of stuff in it that can mitigate a guy who can't pass protect, and the brief flashes we've seen from Turner with the ball in his hands are encouraging. And maybe they can bring in Van Sumeren to pick guys up on passing downs. RB actually feels like one of the more stable situations on the team. Unless Charbonnet is an instant star the ceiling isn't high; the floor is.

I would also expand the interior pass rush concern to be more of a holistic "DTs are just guys" concern. Kemp, the steady guy who is the good run defender amongst the available options, was an average-at-best run defender last year who looked good because the guys next to him were often bad.

We know what Just Guys DTs look like: last year. Replacing Lawrence Marshall, Bryan Mone, and a little bit of Aubrey Solomon isn't going to hurt. (Losing Aubrey Solomon's potential hurts, but in terms of on-field impact dude had 4 tackles last year.) They can only get better there. Jeter and Hinton are going to have more positive impact than the three departed guys; Kemp and Dwumfour should get meaningfully better, particularly Dwumfour.

Cornerback, though… I do not like it. Deleting Ambry Thomas—and if he's not even in camp I think he might get back for the second half of the season—is real bad. Michigan has been a maniacal man-to-man team under Don Brown and now faces a situation where their second CB is an untested who-dat recruit who looked middling in spring; their third CB is probably safety Brad Hawkins.

Zone? I'm thinking zone. But that's like asking Rich Rod to run manball. It is easy to see Michigan's season founder on the rocks against good passing attacks, if any happen to develop on the schedule. Right now it's Notre Dame and maaaaybe Iowa, which at least has a couple tackles and a returning starter at QB.

Michigan did run a few snaps in a 3-1-7(!) last year featuring both Hudson and Glasgow, but those were strictly limited to passing downs. More generally, Michigan has not been able to run three-man lines without getting gashed—this comes in for more discussion in 5Q5A.

Meanwhile the Big Ten is not the Big Twelve, and Ohio State is not necessarily last year's Ohio State team. It seems like Fields is a work in progress as a pocket passer and will be much more of a runner than Haskins. The answer to "how do we beat OSU?" may not be adopting a defense that works in Air Raid, the Conference.

I don't see a whole lot of obvious candidates that I haven't already talked about. Over the course of the recruiting profiles I've asserted that Erick All should be a WR and that George Johnson III may as well play in the secondary since Michigan's going to have four slots on campus next year and he's the guy who's most safety-shaped.

Other than that it's going to be dudes bumping down from DE to DT (Julius Welschof if he's not done filling out) and other minor moves from one linebacker spot to another.

which Drevno misstep haunts your soul the most?

— Darth Burrito (@TisActuallyJohn) August 20, 2019

Alaric Jackson and it's not close. Other situations, like Michigan striking out on a series of high-profile tackles, are mitigated by the fact that Alabama and Georgia are paying kids six figures and Michigan is not. And Michigan had a decent backup plan after Leatherwood/Wilson/etc went elsewhere by picking up Stueber, Filiaga, and Honigford. Swinging at Ulizio is understandable since it's a transition class.

That leaves Jackson. For context, this was the class where Michigan booted Erik Swenson and was blindsided by Devery Hamilton decommitting. Michigan replaced those two guys with Stephen Spanellis, an interior OL. This meant a year after taking a tackle class of Ulizio, Michigan lined up zero or one tackles depending on your opinion of Ben Bredeson's viability on the outside.

Then they flipped Jackson, an in-state OL ranked in 3.5* territory by 24/7. Late recovery! Not an ideal prospect but he's an OL, so you can get dudes from three-star lottery tickets. Then they fail to send him a LOI on Signing Day. They chose air over a guy who's got a shot at going in the first round this year.

Putting Jackson on the roster radically changes Michigan's last two years. As a redshirt freshman he was the starting left tackle for an Iowa team that put up 55 points on OSU. Michigan was running out Ulizio and Juwann Bushell-Beatty on a team that got two quarterbacks hurt and would clearly have beaten both MSU and OSU with either Speight or Peters available. Replacing Bushell-Beatty with Jackson on last year's team doesn't do enough to beat OSU, probably, but Notre Dame… maybe.

Michigan didn't get beat out, they just shot themselves in the kringle-krangles. Truly the most stupefying decision since I've been paying attention to Michigan football recruiting.

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to slant or not to slant [Eric Upchurch]

Assertions like this were the cause of several testy Don Brown press conferences over the course of last year, and it seemed like he'd won the argument until the Indiana game. Then the DEs got doubled every play and Michigan didn't have the down to down blitzing that could prevent that from happening, because they had to buzz slots. Then they didn't touch Haskins against OSU thanks to injured DEs.

I can see the argument for going back to head-up or even inside leverage this year. Michigan's defense is probably taking a step back and if you're forcing long fade throws you're going to give up some big chunks but you're also more likely to get yourself in a passing down where you can put out your Uche package. And it seems like the guy most likely to be checking those routes is Brad Hawkins, a former receiver who was a jump ball maven in high school. He could be better at defending fades than slants. Probably is.

I think we might see a different approach entirely, or at least one that mixes in more zone. It's tough to predict what's going to happen when you have a long-term, extremely successful coordinator coming off two hamblastings. If I had to pick between the slot fades and the slants, this year I'm taking the fades.

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just slap some glasgow on it [Patrick Barron]

"Most" was easy until Stueber went down. Now it's WLB, where any of Gil/Glasgow/Anthony/McGrone would be fine. I guess that's still easy. Second place is outside WR, where Michigan has four outside guys who are going to be plus players this year and Cornelius Johnson. Three or four of those guys can hit the field at the same time, though. Depriving Michigan of packages where they can put DPJ in the slot and run him at a terrified safety is a hit. Also… QB? If the McCaffrey hype is real, then QB.

Least: tight end could see a huge dropoff if McKeon goes out and Eubanks hasn't improved his blocking. CB and RT, the spots that have already taken half-season hits, are also vulnerable. With CB (and safety) it depends on who gets hurt. Hill or Metellus would be very bad. Gray or Hawkins would be less of an issue.

There are non-playoff scenarios that I think people would be happy with, like going 10-2 with losses to Notre Dame and anyone but OSU, then winning the Big Ten. Honestly ND stands out as a game that will have almost no impact on how people feel about the season once it's over. Did Michigan beat OSU and win the league? Yes? Okay.

Comments

ERdocLSA2004

August 21st, 2019 at 11:53 PM ^

We can’t lose to MSU.  Beating us is their only aspiration.  They are worse than us and don’t ever deserve to beat us.  We have better players, better coaches, better everything. Losing to MSU is unacceptable.  Losing to OSU seriously blows, but at least they are stacked with talent and (pains me to say this) OSU beating us is rarely a mathematical upset.

MSU is in their own pit of despair and the only thing that matters to them is beating us.  This simply cannot happen.

jwfsouthpaw

August 21st, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^

It would be disappointing to lose at Penn State, but that's a non-rivalry game on the road against a team that Harbaugh will own a winning record over regardless of this year's outcome. Not the end of the world.

The MSU and OSU games are critical games to win.

I also think the ND game will be bigger than most people are crediting it right now. If Michigan trips up before ND (maybe Iowa, Penn State, or Wisconsin), a second loss to ND with MSU and OSU still to play would be... uncomfortable. If Michigan goes into the ND game undefeated, it will be a spotlight national game with potential playoff implications.

AnthonyThomas

August 21st, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^

Losing to Army at home in the second week of the season would be a total disaster. It would bring out the worst trolls regardless of what happens the rest of the year. We'd see endless highlights of both Appalachian State and Army beating Michigan from then till eternity. You absolutely do not want Michigan to drop that game relative to other possible losses.

CityOfKlompton

August 21st, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^

While it wouldn't be a good look, comparing Army to App State is faulty considering Army received votes in the preseason Top 25 and are a consensus top-30 team in the country entering the season.

Is it on the same level as App State? Absolutely not. Would it bring out the trolls? Yes, but so will literally any loss.

rice4114

August 21st, 2019 at 7:37 PM ^

App state wouldve beat the Toledo team that beat us by 35 points. App state was a sad loss but its only an embarrassing loss because most fans dont understand the offensive fire power that team had. Most huge upsets are against really MEH teams like Akron, Uconn, Toledo, Ball st. All games we couldve lost. App st was nowhere near that level. That being said we shouldve crushed them. With our Tebow bowl game offensive calls we wouldve rolled them.

Eng1980

August 21st, 2019 at 9:55 PM ^

Thank you! for the sane comment.  My prediction before the App St games was Michigan 34-AS 24 since I knew App St had a great offense (5? grey shirts from Alabama and Florida) and  Michigan had a young defense and then a blocked FG and an interception on a 2nd? down pass and well bad things happen when the other team has real speed.

Chris of Dange…

August 22nd, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^

Whenever the subject comes up (I'm a Michigan fan living in Indiana, so it comes up relatively often), I point out that App St over Michigan wasn't only not the biggest upset of all time, it wasn't even the biggest upset of *that year.*  Stanford overcame being a 41-point dog and won at USC.  Biggest point-spread upset ever to that point (since outdone by Howard over UNLV in 2017 - 45 points).

TheKoolAidGuy

August 21st, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^

Down in the Black Pit of Negative Expectations is a pasty pale hobbit sized Tim Drevno that cackles at you nonstop and reminds you of the failings of years past incessantly.

Speed in Space is the only known cure.

Blue Middle

August 21st, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^

It seems pretty clear that this year's team has not serious deficiencies on offense.

On defense, DT and CB are concerns, as is overall depth in the secondary.

That said, it sounds like the DT play will be an upgrade over last season (though still not great) which leaves us hoping Brown, Zordich, and Partridge can coach up the secondary to a level where we can contend with ND, OSU, and even MSU (they do have some solid WRs).

The run defense will only be seriously tested against Wisconsin and OSU.  If we can contain Taylor, I'm optimistic that we can handle the Fields/Dobbins attack.

LKLIII

August 21st, 2019 at 9:52 PM ^

I know many of us are still stuck in the BPONE, but if I may allow one decidedly un-BPONE flight of fancy.....

You note that ND, OSU, and MSU all may have good passing attacks that could theoretically torch our thin secondary & lack of pass-rush up the middle.  Obviously one way to mitigate that is to either win a track meet, or to go up several scores early, then run manball 8 minute drives to bleed clock.   However, my understanding is that ALL THREE of those teams (plus Penn State) also have a MAJOR drop-off in QB talent beyond the starting QB.

So....

What if we don't suffer any additional key injuries AND one or two of our key opponents suffer a significant injury at their QB position?

I could see a situation where we stay relatively healthy, and it just so happens that the strongest teams we face that *WOULD* be able to exploit our vulnerabilities *CAN'T* because they suffer a few key injuries.  Essentially, a situation like we had playing John O'Korn against OSU in 2017.  But this time, it could be the ND or OSU or MSU back-up QBs with time in the pocket and/or wide-open receivers, but not being able to either climb a pocket and/or can't hit the broad side of a barn. 

Bill22

August 22nd, 2019 at 12:06 AM ^

I like the idea of Don Brown having the opportunity to ‘shoot from the hip’ with some different formations, blitzes and coverages due to the low expectations of this year’s defense, and the likely explosiveness of the offensive.  This should allow him to get creative like he did at UConn and BC.

Show me a Don Brown Defense with some room for error and I’ll show you some sacks, ints and seriously confused QBs.

StephenRKass

August 21st, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^

Alaric Jackson. Smh. Is that all on Drevno, though? Seems like some administrative staff should have been on the ball with that. Also, I am pretty much fine with any season outcome that involves beating OSU. Beating OSU and MSU is critical. After that, ND and PSU. These hypotheticals are crazy, but yeah, I'd ultimately live with 3 losses if we beat OSU.

evenyoubrutus

August 21st, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^

I Had forgotten that Jackson had committed and we simply didn't send him a LOI. That feels like more of a Harbaugh thing than a Drevno thing, or at least someone above Drevno in the decision making process (recruiting coordinator?).

It's like someone realized they had one too many guys and needed to exclude one of them. I'm guessing though.

 

spiff

August 21st, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^

What exactly is meant by 'we didn't send him an LOI'. Did someone forget to? Or choose not to?

If it's the former that is a colossal administrative screw-up, and I wonder if Jackson called anyone to see what was going on?

If it's the later, then that is a dick move by the staff. 

It's hard to believe either case really. Did they cool on him prior to signing day and we just don't know about that part?

Brian8603

August 21st, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^

The rumors at the time were that Michigan backed off very late in the process.  This may be a false memory, but I sort of recall Jackson being brought up on the eve of signing day and one of the more insider-y types basically said "offer is non-committable" or something to that effect.