Rationale Expectations for 2020
We are all up in arms about the football team this year, but before we fully engage Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork and run Harbaugh out of town, everyone should take an unbiased look at the current depth chart and the dearth of upperclassmen on it. I am just as frustrated and pissed as everyone else and I am not making excuses for Harbaugh, but we all need a dose of reality here.
The really good / great teams we have had in years past typically had experienced senior classes with strong leaders. We just don't have that this year and it shows with the apparent lack of leadership and shortcomings in the mental side of the game.
https://mgoblog.com/content/depth-chart-class-redux-0
Seniors - 7 total (excluding the 2 that kickers); 3 of these seniors previously were starters (all on D)
Juniors - 8 total (excluding the 2 that are kickers); 3 of these juniors previously were starters (2 on D, other is Ronnie Bell)
Combine this with COVID issues and the lack of offseason conditioning programs and spring football and you have a recipe for disaster. Yes, every P5 team faced basically the same issues and lack of offseason programming, but when you are as young and inexperienced as we are it has a greater impact to the product on the field.
I admit I haven't done this same level of analysis on other P5 teams, so if someone can tell me this is all wrong with examples of other teams this year that are as young and inexperienced, yet succeeding, please have at it.
November 30th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^
It is the job of the coach to have a balanced roster. In year 6 to not have that is an indictment of the recruiting organization and roster management and those failures fall on the head coach.
November 30th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
What changes would you like to see with regards to Michigan's recruiting practices and roster management?
Please be as specific as possible in your response.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
Here’s a specific for you. How about Harbaugh do his damn job and not have a roster full of underclassman in year 6?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
OK, and what are specific things that the coaches should have done differently to reach a different roster outcome today?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^
While I understand your questions, unless you are in the coaching circle, you are not privy to the knowledge of how things are handled currently. Without that knowledge, it is nearly impossible to make recommendations.
That being said, I think it is perfectly reasonable to question the youth of the team, however there may be all kinds of factors ie. Covid opt outs, early entries into the NFL, transfers. Every team deals with these things however, and you can't really give the guy a pass at this point in his tenure at Michigan. The best teams Michigan put on the field were with mostly Hoke recruits, so clearly there is an issue with roster management, and no, I don't have an answer to what I would do differently. If I had the answer's to fix it, I wouldn't be typing this from my insurance office.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
You keep asking for specifics in every thread. The team can’t tackle for shit so you want to know what specific drills they should be working on. There are glaring holes in the roster and you want specifics on how to fix it. You want specifics? Ok here are some specifics for you. It’s specifically Harbaugh’s job to build a roster full of competent players. It’s specifically Harbaugh’s job to make sure the team knows how to tackle either by running the drills himself or hiring someone who knows what they are doing. It’s specifically Harbaugh’s job to keep his team focused and motivated. I get it you want to defend Harbaugh but your schtick is weak. Try another angle instead of asking for specifics every time someone says he isn’t doing his job.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
Recruit better? Specific enough?
Seriously though, it's been a growing meme on this site where our recruiting holes were (i.e. can he play DT or CB?) for the past couple years. The recruiting on this site alone provide the necessary details on where we'd be weak and it came to roost. If this amateurs on this site can figure it out, it should be much easier for a multi-million dollar coach to figure out and fill the gap. Look up some of the content by umgoblue11 and you can see that Harbaugh is at fault for the recruiting woes and holes of today.
Additionally, it has also been well documented on this site that Harbaugh has rubbed enough people the wrong way that it causes more attrition than usual.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^
Windy, this guy loves asking for specifics, but I’m certain he wouldn’t understand if they were given to him. When he is given “specifics” he tends to disappear because he can’t possibly have a discussion about them because he doesn’t understand them. I would imagine he hasn’t spent any meaningful time around a football program higher than the pee-wee level.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
" Recruit better? Specific enough? "
No, that is not specific enough.
" Seriously though, it's been a growing meme on this site where our recruiting holes were (i.e. can he play DT or CB?) for the past couple years. The recruiting on this site alone provide the necessary details on where we'd be weak and it came to roost. If this amateurs on this site can figure it out, it should be much easier for a multi-million dollar coach to figure out and fill the gap. Look up some of the content by umgoblue11 and you can see that Harbaugh is at fault for the recruiting woes and holes of today. "
OK, now we are getting somewhere.
Regarding holes at CB and DT, do you think the issue is that we aren't recruiting enough bodies at those positions, we aren't recruiting the right bodies at those positions, or we aren't closing the deal on our top targets?
There's some talk how we seem to want to take SDE type prospects and bulk them up to play on the interior. Is that because it's what the coaches want to do, or is it because those are the guys who were the best available athletes that had enoughinterest in Michigan to be a realistic shot in the last class or two?
Do Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith fit that mold of bulked up ends, or are they the exceptions that fit outside the trend? Mazi hasn't shown much yet -- were the coaches wrong to recruit him at all? Chris Hinton is starting to flash a little bit. He will likely be very good for us in the future. Were the coaches wrong to recruit him given that some projections had him as more of an SDE type?
Are there specific interior DL recruits you can point to that wanted to go to Michigan that would have had an immediate positive impact if we didn't let them get away?
December 1st, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
Here's a specific. Real easy one. Michigan's corners aren't fast, skilled or experienced enough to play single-high man coverage on ANY receiver in the Big 10.
If your D-Coordinator only knows/wants to coach a certain style - i.e. single-high, tight man coverage in one-on-one matchups between his DBs vs WRs - and we obviously don't have the personnel to cover them? Force the guy to change his scheme or replace him.
Michigan DBs have been getting TORCHED because of our coverage scheme in the secondary - This year specifically because we don't have the personnel to play it, but also in years past when we maybe have DBs talented/fast enough to implement it, but great teams like Ohio State scheme around it and fucking shit pump us on drag routes that go for 30 yards every time, and rack up 60+ points. It has proven that it doesn't work so DO SOMETHING TO FIX IT.
Do I need to provide the definition of insanity, or do we all have it memorized now in year 6? It's your job as head coach to see this obvious glaring issue and do something about it. Shit like this infuriates me.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^
Well for starters they could have recruited actual DTs every year. Right now we have Jeter (was a SDE recruit), Kemp (DE/LB recruit) Hinton (originally a SDE recruit) the German guy (DE recruit) and Smith (DT recruit) playing DT. Smith is the only guy who wasn't listed as a DE at at least some point in their recruiting process.
Second we can recruit CBs with better athleticism. Go through the recruiting profiles of the guys on the roster now (front page already did this for us FWIW) and you get a bunch of technicians, outside of Green, with limited ceiling.
Then the coaches can not run these guys off. Show them the path to playing time so they see a light at the end of the tunnel instead of just bolting at the first opportunity. Sure some guys will still leave, but out attrition seems unusually high.
Personally I am also a little worried about OT depth. Seems we have a ton of OGs on the roster and are pretty thin at OT, though it hasn't really hurt us badly yet.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:45 PM ^
You’re being irrationale.
I couldn't help myself.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
I don’t have it readily at my finger tips but if you google it there’s an article out there on how much of a disorganized mess Michigan’s recruiting is.
I think it was by one of the rivals or 247 guys.
November 30th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
Steve Wiltfong said that UM was un-organized when it came to recruiting.
(This isn't the article but the post contains his quote)
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/board/103320/Contents/michigan-recruiting-criticisms-141955737/
November 30th, 2020 at 7:44 PM ^
I think you ask fair questions, but tyring to balance getting the specific positions filled and still meet the whims of 17-18 young men who are getting smoke blown their way by myriad sources has got to be nerve-wracking. My bigger concern is making adjustments after the fact. You may recruit with a goal of a style of defense or offense, but is you don't get the right bodies to do it, you need to change the approach. Case in point the defensive backfield of this years team.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:45 PM ^
Stop doing what you are doing, i.e. stop chasing talented kids away. DPJ left to become a 6th round pick. Ambry and Nico would rather sit the year out then play for this man.
December 1st, 2020 at 8:43 AM ^
Sure that's fair... I mean, Nico didn't willingly give up high draft pick money to come back for his senior season, and then have it fucked by covid or anything, right? And Ambry is a totally healthy kid who had no reason to sit out during covid year, right?
But at least you used words, and not a gif or jpeg for your thoughts here.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
I don't think Harbaugh has done a great job with roster management, but cfb is cyclical in regards to experience and talent. Wisconsin had a very experienced team last year that made a rose bowl. They're young as hell this year and got pantsed by NW. Similarly, NW has one loss this year after going 3-9 the year before. MSU went 3-9 after their playoff year because they lost their whole team and couldn't fill in the gaps. OSU/Bama/Clemson don't miss a beat because all of their young players are as talented as their old guys, but that's rare. Even perennial-playoff team Oklahoma is having a down year after losing Hurts and Lamb.
Michigan got caught with their pants down because we had a big senior class leave, had key players opt out, and even more key returners get injured. I don't think Jim is the answer because of a bunch of reasons, but I do think the product on the field is a mix of several things and not solely because Harbaugh is incompetent
November 30th, 2020 at 4:41 PM ^
Cheers. Even though we're on different sides of this debate, I want to take a moment to single out your sane, level-headed, and circumspect view of the current landscape. With folks like you, it's actually possible to have a real discussion.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^
I'd like to see us keep more guys around for years 3-5 unless they go to the NFL. Let's stop running off our most talented recruits. Let's bring in more grad transfers to supplement the guys that do leave early. Look at the LB's, there's only true freshman behind our starters because the staff has run off LB's left and right and the remaining ones have been trained to be vipers and apparently can't play Mike or Will.
With a well managed and run team even with all the problems this year has no business losing to MSU, PSU, or an overrated Indiana team. The Wisconsin team should have at least been competitive too.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:25 PM ^
I would like them to recruit DT sized DTs every year instead of trying to money ball it. There aren't any true DTs in the class and it is a weakness. There were 2 blue chip DTs in your home state and you landed neither. I'd like them to recruit CBs who can actually play the scheme they have chosen to run. There are no upperclassmen at WR because they took a year off recruiting them. I would probably recruit more than 0-1 WRs in a class. Just basic roster management/scouting things that this staff fails at.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
I'll play your game a minute. Here is a quote from a poster familiar to you:
Harbaugh is an outstanding football coach. Best in the world? No. Without flaws? Obviously not. Damn good fit for Michigan right now? You bet your ass.
I am particularly impressed with how he has stood by his young, inexperienced players this difficult season and focused on coaching fundamental football skills.
Please explain how Harbaugh is an outstanding football coach, specifics are important. and help all of us ignorant goons understand the nuances of back to basics when the team tackles poorly, executes their designed plays poorly, missed QB reads regularly and has missed blocking assignments on the consistent. Specifics are key here too.
Thanks, all of us emotional fucking idiots.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:44 PM ^
He had 10-win seasons in 3 of his first 5 years, in the brutal Big Ten East.
November 30th, 2020 at 9:29 PM ^
In that same five year-span James Franklin has three 11 win seasons. Is James Franklin really a better coach than JH? Correct answer should be no, but the magic 8ball says “better not tell you now”.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:46 AM ^
Harbaugh is 8-7 in those three seasons against: OSU, PSU, MSU, Wisky, NotreDame, and in the bowl games. Fluffing up the wins against non-power five teams and the bottom dwellers of the East. You can do better.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
Recruit Ohio.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:37 PM ^
What positions would you hold up as a model of where Harbaugh and his staff have done a good job of assuming that we have an adequate roster? I’ll provide a few examples of not fulfilling that responsibility.
Quarterback - and this has not been a 1 year covid related problem:
- 2015 - Arguably Harbaugh’s best roster management - inherited a very weak quarterback room - brought in Jake Ruddock, can’t really be faulted for not finding great qb recruit so late in the process, but even a decent project quarteback in this class could have made a difference in 2018 when a 2015 recruit would have been a redshirt junior
- 2016 - staff did an admirable job in coaching up Speight, but really needed to hit a homerun in terms of recruiting and with Brandon Peterson, did not. Had Speight not gotten hurt against Iowa, things may have been very different. Can’t blame Harbaugh for not having a solid backup in 2016, but his recruiting in 2016, definitely led to problems down the road.
- 2017 - even stronger pressure for a homerun recruit. Dylan McCaffrey may turn out to be a good/great quarterback, but it certainly won’t be at Michigan. So in his first three years, Harbaugh did not recruit a guy who was ever considered the first string quarterback at Michigan. Quarterbacks recruited in those three years have a total of 4 career starts.
- 2018 - Resort to another transfer in Shea Paterson. Good but not great. Bring in Joe Milton. Can’t rule out him turning into a great quarterback, but early returns are not good and clearly wasn’t ready to be the man in 2020.
2019 - year two of Paterson. If anything seemed to regress. In his 5th year may finally have recruited a decent big ten quarterback in Cade McNamara (but it is definitely to soon to tell). Regardless of where his career goes, McNamara has more touchdowns at Michigan than any Michigan quarterback recruited by Harbaugh and he only has 1 career start.
2020 - Clearly Milton wasn’t ready. We’ll never know if McCaffrey was. As noted above McNamara may be. In terms of recruits, obviously the JD Johnson late medical issue hurt.
In summary, in 2015 and 2016, Harbaugh arguably significantly exceeded expectations in terms of having first string quarterbacks ready to play, but has not since then. So 2/3rds of the time he has failed at having a qb who met, much less exceeded what could be reasonably expected. In terms of recruiting, his first three classes were pretty much failures, yielding inly 4 total starts. So already failed in 50% of his chances. It is too early to write off Milton, but there is a good chance he will never start a full season at Michigan None of that seems like particularly good recruiting, development or roster management.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
Nothing. They are exceeding expectations and couldn't possibly do any better.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:52 PM ^
Hey, I saw this question on the EDUC 240 midterm that Beilein is teaching!
December 1st, 2020 at 8:18 AM ^
In year 6 if your team best qb has a busted throwing shoulder you have completely failed as a coach and staff. Since you have a hard time with understanding it seems anything let me put it this way. YOU RECRUIT LIKE SHIT AT MULTIPLE POSITIONS AND CAN NOT TEACH YOUR TEAM BASIC FUNDAMENTALS LIKE TACKLING WHICH MEANS YOU FAILED AND SHOULD BE FIRED.. Got it?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^
This dude has never beaten MSU at home (correction **1-3** at home) and just lost (sorry, got blown out really) against the worst incarnation of MSU in over a decade, and people are still bending over backwards for him. I can't anymore.
Ask yourselves this, if this were Hoke, would you be bending over backwards as hard as the Harbaugh cult is doing right now to keep him? Hoke had a top 10 recruiting class coming in for 2015 as well, and nobody gave a shit.
I would rather have a 2021 recruiting class that is properly utilized to its fullest extent than have Harbaugh stay and have half the class (the more talented ones) xfer away anyway resulting in players like Shibley and Reynolds having significant PT lmao.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
He beat MSU at home in 2019, your point still stands though
November 30th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
14 players from 2016 and 2017 are playing professionally. How do you recreate their experience?
Do you redshirt all of them?
November 30th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
I think you mean rational expectations
November 30th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
Touche
November 30th, 2020 at 8:24 PM ^
What is your rationale for that comment?
November 30th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
The torch and pitchfork mob is going to respond that player retention is on the coaches. Given that a lot of our early departures seem to be playing time related, and the guys that were playing in front of them are now in the NFL, I'm not sure what our coaches are supposed to do about that.
Should they play guys who aren't our best guys, just to keep them happy and entice them to stick with the program? It looks like we've been trying to do that at RB this year, and of course the fans are ripping the coaches for that too.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
McCaffrey, Solomon, Dwumfour, Black, Hudson and St. Juste were playing time? Nope.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^
None of those players were willing to wait their turn to play behind superior players, and McCaffrey just had ample evidence why he should have stuck around this last weekend, but chose not to.
I don't know how a coach is supposed to retain every single player who wants to start now with how easy it is to transfer.
A bigger issue is the number of transfers who couldn't even start elsewhere. How did we miss evaluating them so bad they can't start for Rutgers? I know it's a crapshoot, and my sample size is one team, so maybe it's that way everywhere.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:39 PM ^
St Juste transferring had nothing to do with not wanting to wait behind a senior. Harbaugh’s medical staff told him he had to medically retire.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^
Isn’t the McCaffrey rumor that Harbaugh pushed him when he pulled out of practice after feeling sick and so he pulled out entirely after discussing it with his family? If McCaffrey was so bad that he got beat out by Milton, then I’m not sure him leaving hurts. Considering it’s been radio silence, I suspect it was a breakdown with the staff. I mean the guy is still enrolled in school and he has a free year of eligibility and he’d rather not play football than play for Harbaugh.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
Are you related to Jim or have a financial stake in him continuing his $8,000,000 annual compensation?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
I think he’s Jim’s financial advisor and gets paid a % of Jim’s assets under his watch. 50 bps on $8mm makes an extra $40k a year.
December 1st, 2020 at 9:24 AM ^
I think that IS Jim, asking for advice on a forum. Why do you think he keeps asking for specifics? Writing that stuff down lol
November 30th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
I expect there to be a lot of people trying to provide proper rationale for why our team sucks, and why it is reasonable, and thus why keeping Harbaugh makes a lot of sense, even though it clearly doesn't.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^
Hey, I am a big defender of Harbaugh but there is something to be said about his lack of player retention. He didn't have to run off players left and right, which only made it worst when players graduated, etc...
Patience is wearing thin and people aren't willing to give him the benefit of the doubt during this year. We could win the natty next year and people would still want him gone.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
We finally agree on a take, well said. Except the last sentence.
Natty? LOL. Hell, if he could win just the B1G East next year no one would say shit.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
I’m sick of Harbaugh. If he won a natty next year I would happily say I was wrong and eat crow. But to do that he can’t lose his annual greater than or equal to 3 games. Seeing how that’s impossible I doubt I’d be eating any crow.