Rationale Expectations for 2020
We are all up in arms about the football team this year, but before we fully engage Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork and run Harbaugh out of town, everyone should take an unbiased look at the current depth chart and the dearth of upperclassmen on it. I am just as frustrated and pissed as everyone else and I am not making excuses for Harbaugh, but we all need a dose of reality here.
The really good / great teams we have had in years past typically had experienced senior classes with strong leaders. We just don't have that this year and it shows with the apparent lack of leadership and shortcomings in the mental side of the game.
https://mgoblog.com/content/depth-chart-class-redux-0
Seniors - 7 total (excluding the 2 that kickers); 3 of these seniors previously were starters (all on D)
Juniors - 8 total (excluding the 2 that are kickers); 3 of these juniors previously were starters (2 on D, other is Ronnie Bell)
Combine this with COVID issues and the lack of offseason conditioning programs and spring football and you have a recipe for disaster. Yes, every P5 team faced basically the same issues and lack of offseason programming, but when you are as young and inexperienced as we are it has a greater impact to the product on the field.
I admit I haven't done this same level of analysis on other P5 teams, so if someone can tell me this is all wrong with examples of other teams this year that are as young and inexperienced, yet succeeding, please have at it.
November 30th, 2020 at 9:40 PM ^
Shocking, another dumb fucking thing you said.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^
Holy shit dude. You, Catchafire, and Jim Harbaugh all just need to kiss already and get it over with.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^
Again, don’t run off Solomon Dylan dwumfor black dpj Anthony singletary Hudson Martin and you won’t be in this mess.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
Oliver Martin, really? You don't think his success since leaving has anything to do with it?
DPJ left to go to the NFL and get paid. I can never fault a player for that.
Many of the others you listed left for playing time.
It is easy to sit here and complain about all of the transfers, but how much of that is just the new state of CFB? The transfer portal and players that are more wise to the process have resulted in more transfers. And I don't blame any of them for going somewhere to play.
These complaints are hollow without data to compare to transfer rates at similar programs.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
I read somewhere (sorry I don't have the link) Michigan's transfer rate is 10 per year the national average is 7.5.
Outside of Benjamin St-Juste and James Hudson, starting LT at Cinci, no one has done much at their new destinations.
Development is a much bigger issue than the transfer portal.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:26 PM ^
If we can't develop players, then why are we one of the top programs for getting kids to the NFL?
November 30th, 2020 at 6:19 PM ^
Maybe the athletic capability and personal drive of some the players has something to do with it?
DPJ - physical freak before he got to Michigan, drafted on potential not performance
Rashan Gary - physical freak before he got to Michigan, drafted on potential not performance
Jabril Peppers - physical freak before he got to Michigan, drafted on potential with some performance to back it up
Mo Hurst - Amazing first step before he got to Michigan, drafted on performance generated by the already existing trait
Cesar Ruiz - praised as the most college ready center in recent classes before he got to Michigan, drafted based on performing to expectations
Ben Bredeson - highly ranked recruit known for technique and toughness, drafted based on performing to expectations
Devin Bush Jr - NFL pedigree and known for speed in high school, drafted based on exceeding expectations. Position coach no longer at Michigan.
I can keep going, but that was immediately who came to mind.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^
hahaha, I am a fan but mostly sick of the coaching carousel.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^
Again, so sick of these excuses, Bo had many young teams and managed to win at a high level and guess what? His teams always got better during the season. Also, roster management is a joke, that's on coach.
Don't want to start a thread but a name no one has mentioned that might be interesting is Trent Dilfer, he's coaching a HS in Nashville, Lipscomb Academy and had built them in less than 3 years from a 3 win to 13 win program.
He knows HS talent, has a SB ring and does the elite 11 camp, he knows how to coach QB's and would probably be a great recruiter with the relationships he's built.
Just food for thought.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
Analyze it all you want. We have lost to 3 teams whom we are far superior to in terms of talent, even with the attrition, and one team that we are marginally more talented than (PSU).
Coaches all over seem to find ways to build strong programs with low amounts of talent, like Paul Chryst and Tom Allen. Our coaches are doing the opposite. High amounts of talent that look awful when playing together.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
We're pitchforking and torching Harbaugh for going 19-7 the last two seasons while Chryst went 18-9 against an easier schedule. They only Power 5 competition they've played out of conference the last two years was Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
As much love as Chryst gets, he's still 0-4 against OSU and the only time they played in Columbus, they were blown out. If beating OSU is the goal, neither program is in position to do that in 2020.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
If Chryst is getting love it’s because he keeps pummeling Michigan. I don’t want to be better than Wisconsin(though that’s the next step) I want to be B1G champs!
December 1st, 2020 at 6:05 AM ^
We just pummeled him 2 years ago. People love to see Jim and Michigan fail because we're both lightning rods for that kind of thing. Chryst/Wisconsin and Frankling/Penn State don't draw nearly as much media attention and schadenfreude-searching
November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
Chryst and Harbaugh are pretty good comparisons to one another
The difference is Harbaugh tried to adapt by changing coaches around and he didn't handle it well. Chryst looks like a better coach because Wisconsin is doing the same thing they've been doing for decades and are at their ceiling. They can go to a consolation rose bowl every other year, but they'll never win it
November 30th, 2020 at 8:14 PM ^
UM is 11-8 over the last 2 seasons (including losing to winless PSU and needing 3OTs to beat Rutgers and 2OT to beat Army). UW is 12-5.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
Most rational fans realized this was going to be a rebuilding year. The problem is the trajectory of the program - the inability to defeat or now even compete against top tier competition.
Most of the goals of the football team are just out of reach. If we can't beat OSU we will never be in the B1G championship game let alone the playoffs. If we can't compete for a B1G title then something needs to change. We have to have a coach, a system, and players capable of beating OSU and I just don't see that with Harbaugh next year or the year after.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
Yeah I thought this would be a 6-3 type rebuilding year. Didn’t anticipate the bottom would fall out.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:26 PM ^
I don't see it with the next coach either. A defeat to osu is back breaking for a program. They are on such another level.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
The responses will quickly become "Well look at OSU!"
OSU is a well-oiled CFB machine that has been built up (for a handful of reasons) over the last decade plus. They're operating at all time highs. Whether we like it or not that isn't a reasonable comparison.
Hell, LSU just won the CFP and they fell off of a cliff this year.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
If you have paid any attention to LSU over the years, you would realize last year was the exception. They generally have very talented rosters, but are a mess at QB. Last year, they ended up getting the single best single year QB performance in college football history and won a National championship. Most of us fully expected a sizeable regression this year because, no Joe Burrow. Perhaps it’s a bit steeper of a regression than anticipated, but not completey unexpected.
The responses can simply be, “don’t get your ass kicker by MSU, Indiana and 0-5 Penn St”. No amount of rationalizing can explain those results.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
I think a rational expectation in year 6 with one of the highest paid coaches in football and some of the best resources in the sport is to have at least established a program identity. There doesn't seem to be a cohesive direction, there is constant coach and player turnover, and endless stories about an unorganized approach to recruiting which could be the most important thing in college football.
Before this season the saving grace was that they won the games they were supposed to. That is no longer the case.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^
What leads you to believe that Jim can get highly rated recruits to buy into his ways and reach their potential once they're on campus. Because frankly, there's little proof that he can.
Walkons and 3 stars are whole other story.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:24 PM ^
I have been saying this for a couple of years. Way to many kids leaving the program. I’m sure they are tired of Harbaugh. We have 2 walk ons starting on defense. That should never happen in year 6 of a big time program. It’s time to move on from him. I was so excited when they hired him.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:25 PM ^
No matter the circumstances, Michigan should never look this bad after 6 games. No matter the circumstances, Harbaugh was never supposed to have a season here with a losing record. Even with Michigan's ceiling being lower than we want it to be, the floor was always supposed to be better than this. No excuses can convince me that 2-4 is ok. It's really not. It's never ok.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^
I think we could have stomached losing to Wisconsin, Indiana, and OSU. Depending on progress shown, etc. IMO.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^
Can we stop acting like this is the first disappointment Harbaugh has had?
see OSU - all five games
MSU - 2015, 2017, 2020
4 previous bowl games
2017 season
2019 season sans Notre Dame.
Harbaugh is a 3 million dollar a year coach making almost 3 times that. For the love of god please Michigan move on.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^
Tucker in his 1st year at MSU has 2 wins bigger than any wins by Jim in his 6 years here. Stop using youth and injuries as an excuse.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^
Your counting a win against this Michigan team as a big win? A win against Northwestern? C’mon man! When he beats OSU and Wisconsin then he’ll have two big wins. Until then it’s just a bunch of bad teams beating each other. The B1G has one good team, one second tier team and 12 dregs.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
I'd settle for not having every play be either a run into the middle of a stacked box or a 4-yard out pattern (that gets turfed anyway).
November 30th, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^
Yeah but we went from doing that from under center to now doing it from the shotgun! Progress!!!
/s
November 30th, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
I don’t think anyone is arguing Harbaugh hasn't been dealt a tough hand in 2020. I’m certainly not. But there are systemic issues that have been identified and discussed on this board for years:
- Failure to recruit a balanced roster, particularly at CB and DT.
- Failure to scheme and execute an offense with any consistency.
- Failure to find a defensive counter punch to teams attacking press man defense.
- A lack of underdog, rivalry, and big game victories.
- No B1G championships or CFP appearances.
Harbaugh himself would have looked at this list six years ago and agreed this was a failure, and I don’t think anyone can reasonably argue with any of these points. I don’t think many believed 2020 was going to be a CFP year. But there was a reasonable expectation that by year six Michigan would be a football machine that always looked confident, dangerous, and competitive. We are nowhere near that, and Harbaugh seems to have lost his passion. Brown can’t scheme a defense. Gattis has failed to use some of the basic tools of a spread offense to deliver on his own motto.
The program is objectively and historically bad. There is some great young talent but we have yet to see a high quality QB or anyone even approaching a Heisman candidate. Our offense isn’t even a top 20 unit. Our best offseason coach hire is at home. Quality players are transferring out. And we have one of the highest paid coaches on the sport.
I wish it were different. I loved the Harbaugh hire. But it has not worked out.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
I think COVID hit the younger teams and teams experiencing a high amount of turnover from last season particularly hard. Usually, these younger players would get a full spring camp, summer workouts and fall camp. Michigan, unluckily for this year, falls into BOTH of those categories.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
I played college sports and the difference between my game as a Freshman versus my play as a Senior was absolutely astounding. And that pretty much went for everyone on the team. It was night and day. Have you ever seen a still growing kid go up against a grown man . . . yes, you have, this has been our 2020 season. The team will be much improved next year, and the year after that.
I really don't fully understand how Harbaugh was supposed to win with this roster?
And at the same time, I can't help but marvel at the number of players he has sent to the NFL, many of whom left early, and created the depth problems we have had the past few years at various positions.
The problem here, in my opinion, is trying to build a college program in the modern era of college football. It takes time, and you blogger types are impatient, unrealistic and immature.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
Even Harbaugh's best teams so far at Michigan were still unable to accomplish any huge goals. 10 win seasons can be nice, but are empty without wins over Ohio State, trips to the big ten championship game, or titles of any kind. So whats your excuse for why previous teams didn't get the job done?
November 30th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
Remind me, who is beating OSU's death star and winning titles with any consistency?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
Dude, it is been 6 years. The issues of youth on a roster makes sense for years like 2017. In that year, the 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes were small and decimated by coaching unrest. Therefore, it was understandable for an 8-5/9-4 year when you really don't have any upper classmen receivers or defensive backs. I was quite frustrated in 2017 with loses to USC and MSU, but hey, growing pains.
By the time it is year 6, it is your roster. For 2020, your 2017, 2018, and 2019 classes would be the make up of your starting units, as those would be Seniors, Juniors, and Sophomores. As you have mention, the attrition problems have destroyed this program. Are we saying that Benjamin St. Juste wouldn't be an upgrade at corner? How about Keith Washington a couple years back at corner? Do we not think that Michael Dwumfour may have helped solve our DT tackle position for another season? How about Myles Sims? Also, hey Aubrey Solomon maybe was not the player we expected, but if we still had Greg Mattison, it could be different.
Next year, maybe the team will be better, but at what point do you consider it...ugh...acceptable as improved? In year 7, i would expect Michigan to be in contention to go Indy, and perhaps a playoff spot. That will not be the case next year. Michigan is likely, at best, a 8-4 type of team next season. Can Vincent Gray improve next season? Maybe, but not to the level that we will want for our corners. Where will Michigan get it's pass rush? Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson will be gone, and I doubt these ends have shown any ability to generate a real pass rush. Michigan will still have a QB competition going into 2021, without a clear starter.
It isn't being "inpatient", it is accepting that Harbaugh has reached his peak here, and is moving backwards.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
So well said Toby!
November 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
Ah, the good old myth of linear progress.
"It's year 6, we shouldn't look like this!!!"
It's so popular around here to cherry pick seasons from other coaches like Kelly or Dantonio but I noticed the cherry picks always leave out the disaster seasons that they went 4-8 or 3-9.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
Yeah well it's also popular for you Harbaugh defenders to cherry pick bad seasons Kelly and Dantonio had and say "well they rebounded!" yet both had actually won something before year six.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
Yeah well it's also popular for you Harbaugh defenders to cherry pick bad seasons Kelly and Dantonio had and say "well they rebounded!" yet both had actually won something before year six.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:03 PM ^
Dantonio won a big ten title in 2010 and beat Georgia in 2011. He also had a rebound year in year 7, for which he had a three year span that Michigan could only dream of having. I love all the jokes we make about Dantonio when he has done more than Jim Harbaugh could only dream of. Also Brian Kelly got to the fucking NC game in his third year. I bet all the Harbaugh apologists will be in full force next year when we go 7-5.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
Then the question is why are people running for the draft and or transfer portal the first chance they get?
Why didn’t Dylan stick around? Or Dwmfour? Especially if he saw Milton in practice?
What is Harbaugh/ his staff doing to chase players away? How many 4* and 5* guys did we lose?
November 30th, 2020 at 5:06 PM ^
Running to the draft is a lifelong dream fulfilled and the transfer portal is rampant across all of college football. Both are completely rational and justifiable decisions if the situation warrants it.
A bigger question is . . . what on earth are other programs doing to keep their players from going into the draft. I look at a player like Fields and I can't help but think he is a slave to a college culture system I would rather not support.
Think about that, he basically said . . . "I am going to risk millions and my NFL dream in order to try and beat Illinois on the road in December and maybe get injured going for a championship during a pandemic . . . I am playing for free and willfully ignoring this is a business. Because . . . rah rah college." Um . . . I would rather not support that type of thinking because it is doomed for failure in the long run.
We might is well ask the Ohio State Buckeyes to move to a small uninhabited pacific island nation and just start making us T-shirts. It would save us all the trouble.
November 30th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^
So you resent that Meyers/Day has created the kind of culture and loyalty that it's players want to stick around and play for championships and would run through a wall for its coaches?
November 30th, 2020 at 9:12 PM ^
You win the 2020 stupidest post award.
December 25th, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
Fast forward to 2022 and NIL and the transfer portal completely changed the game and the player experience 180 degrees.
Maybe not a stupid post at all. Something had to change and it did.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:07 PM ^
It's pretty easy to figure out why Dylan opted out if you look back at the timeline. It was not because of Harbaugh or Milton but between September 5th when he was on campus for the "we want to play” protest and September 16 when the B1G announced that they were going to play in October he had decided he was going to transfer. He thought the season was over and was looking at options.
But why not play and then graduate in December and transfer? Because the team he decided to transfer to was going to play in the Spring - Northern Colorado. Where Tru Wilson is and where his dad is now the head coach. In August the Big Sky conference announced they would play in the Spring and Ed McCaffrey supported the decision.
They will start their training camp in January or early February. He will first graduate and then transfer. On February 27 Northern Colorado is at Idaho
November 30th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
Roster management is still the coach’s job. Why is everyone graduating from other schools? What happened with Dylan?
November 30th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
My expectation is that regardless of all other circumstances surrounding the team, the team has a QB that looks even remotely like he knows what he is supposed to do. In 6 years, that has probably been the case in games you can count on with one hand. I reasonably expect UM to compete in every game (give or take OSU's deathstar). With their recruiting, UM should rarely get blown out or look embarrassing in any game (aside from OSU). This has happened in all games this year besides one and in pretty much every road game the team has played in 6 years. I love JH and will always be a fan, but its over.
November 30th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
Using ourlads.com, I have charted all of the Big Ten's starters in terms of their experience/seniority. We are the least experienced team in the league by far (sorry, MD is fairly close).
Wisconsin averages almost 2 years per starter more than us.
Looks just like 2014 team for exactly the same reasons. Wait for next year for improvement. You cannot create experience.
Look for yourself: https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/