OT: Weekend Betting - Week 10
Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for the weekend's slate of games. I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):
(Previous week record: 5-5; Overall season record: 37-38)
Saturday games:
Jacksonville St at South Carolina, 12pm: South Carolina -16
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 12pm: Ole Miss -3
Arkansas at Florida, 12pm: Arkansas +6
Wisconsin at Indiana, 12pm: Under 45
Arizona St at Utah, 2pm: Utah -10
James Madison at Georgia St, 3:30pm: James Madison -6
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St, 3:30pm: Oklahoma St +6
Kansas at Iowa St, 7pm: Iowa St -3
Washington at USC, 7:30pm: USC +3
Miami at North Carolina St, 8pm: Miami -5.5
Notable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a 32.5 point favorite over Purdue; Over/Under is 53
Ohio St currently sits as a 19 point favorite over Rutgers (at Rutgers)
Nebraska currently sits as a 3 point favorite over Michigan St (at Michigan St)
Alabama currently sits as a 3 point favorite over LSU (at Alabama)
Washington currently sits as a 3 point favorite over USC (at USC).
Penn St currently sits as an 8 point favorite over Maryland (at Maryland).
Georgia currently sits as a 15 point favorite over Missouri (at Georgia)
Texas currently sits as a 3.5 point favorite over Kansas St (at Texas)
Oklahoma currently sits as a 5.5 point favorite over Oklahoma St (at Oklahoma St).
Other lines:
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Ohio State at Rutgers, to me, is a compelling game. OSU coming off a hard fought game at Wisconsin, another road trip, to play a 6-2 team desperate for a break though win. McCord is less than 100% with no feasible back up.
Rutgers and the points, for sure, with other possibilities…
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:12 PM ^
It would be understandable if Michigan has a slow start and *only* wins by 4 touchdowns.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
I disagree. I think we come out laser focused ie MSU.
Heavy on Michigan to cover 32.5
Edit: This Trustage ad is on fire like the Balas thread
November 4th, 2023 at 7:06 AM ^
I completely agree. IIRC, UM has looked pretty sleepy in their first game after a bye week under Harbaugh. I think there is a pretty good possibility of the game being a low scoring close affair in the first half with UM pulling away in the second half to win by 24: UM 31 Purdue 7.
The two lines that jumped out to me:
TAMU at Mississippi (-3): Ol' Miss only a 3 point favorite at home against TAMU? Are there significant injuries to Ol' Miss? I would have expected them to be about an 8 pt favorite in the game. Ol' Miss (-3) is my "Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week."
Washington at USC (+3): I know UW has been scuffling a little bit lately but USC is a total fraud. Anyone with a pulse has either pushed USC to the limit (Colorado, Arizona) or beaten them (ND, Utah). I like Washington to win this one by at least a TD.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:16 PM ^
Iowa-Northwestern Under. Last time I looked the line was 30.5.
Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:19 PM ^
Michigan covers by a lot and scores all of the points and it's more than 53.
OH State does not cover. Rutgers keeps it close but still loses by double digits.
Nebraska more than covers. They should win by 10 or more points.
'Bama covers and wins by 10 or more.
Washington @ USC could be a push.
Unless the Terps wake up from their funk, PSU covers.
GA covers at home against Mizzou.
The Longhorns cover.
OK State gives the Sooners a battle but lose. The Sooner do not cover the 5.5 spread.
Under 45 points should be right with Wisc and IN.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:23 PM ^
I went 4-0 last week --- miracles DO occur! Now for some "regression to the mean" picks:
- North Texas +8.5 at home vs. UTSA. North Texas is 3-5 but they're on a bit of a roll: 4 straight wins ATS, including 2 close losses to the top guns in the AAC (Memphis and Tulane). Their problem has been in the 1st half: offense not keeping up with their admittedly porous defense. I may regret this, as UNT is still a bad team, but take them and they may even win outright - they probably get Bowl eligible if they do win this one.
- UCF -3.5 at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is B-A-D this year, coaches in particular. They're 0-4 in Big XII play thus far in their debut year and I think they finish 0-8. UCF has some issues themselves but they're simply better all-around than UC. 3.5 isn't much to lay here.
- Auburn -12.5 at Vanderbilt. Auburn isn't on anyone's radar at all this year, but they're getting better and rolling downhill a bit. They won't be an easy out for Bama in 3 weeks. Vandy is 0-5 in SEC play, every single one of those losses by more than 12.5 points.
- Nevada -3.5 at home vs Hawaii. Another case where I may reget taking a bad team, but Nevada may legitimately be getting their shit together (on a relative basis). Hawaii, meanwhile, definittely does not have their shit together: they lost by 3 scores in their last visit to the mainland --- against freaking New Mexico. Nevada should have this, I hope?
- USC +2.5 at home vs. Washington. I will be at this one. USC is as mercurial and messy as can be. But this feels like a game they'll be up for, this feels like a game where the Coliseum will have the "Carroll era" energy. USC will probably get POUNDED in Eugene next week, they are a very flawed team. But even "dead cats"/"dead horses" bounce and can surprise you. This is based on nothing but intuition and my feel for the Trojans: but the "dead cats" beat the Husky dogs.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
Dead cats may or may not bounce, but dead horses always splatter.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
2023 Traveler will have the same ultimate fate as 2022 Traveler, 2021 Traveler, 2018 Traveler, 2015 Traveler, 2012 Traveler and 2009 Traveler.
SPLAT!!!!!!!!
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:05 PM ^
Have fun at the USC Washington game, should be a fun one.
November 3rd, 2023 at 6:46 PM ^
I don’t bet but I think Washington is the best bet here on this list.
How on earth can USC even slow them down?
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
First time poster but I'll try and be active on this weekly thread. I follow lines pretty closely throughout the week. I'll share specific games of personal interest I've been watching in terms of line movement tonight, picks tomorrow.
K State +3.5 / 4 @ Texas - Early week line was UT -3.5, moved to -4 / 4.5 mid week, and now it's back to steady 3.5 / 4. I'm not playing it, take it FWIW.
OSU -18.5 @ Rutgers - Line has not budged all week. My take based off this? OSU wins in the 17-24 range. Good luck rolling the dice.
ND -3 @ Clemson - Early week was ND -3.5 steady, moved to -3, still some stray -3.5's out there with juice. Plenty of lines like that this week. Hasn't made it's way down to -2.5...ND moneyline would be the play for me, but I'll stay away.
Nebraska -3 @ MSU - Early week was NU -2.5, moved to -3 yesterday, now seeing a NU -3.5 pop up. Typically home dogs move the opposite way? Seems sharp, but I hate betting against Sparty when they end up winning.
OU -6 @ Ok State - Early week OU -5.5, moved to -6 across the board, now starting to see -5.5's pop up more consistently.
Mizzou +15 / 15.5 @ UGA - This one intrigues me. Early week was UGA -16.5. I assumed Joe Q Public would hammer UGA up to -17, at least. But it's gone the other way. This could be closer than we think, or at least within 2 scores.
PSU -8.5 @ Maryland - Upset potential? Tuesday this was PSU -10.5. It quickly got bet down into the 9's and is now a solid 8.5. Congrats if you got MD +10.5, that would be my lock of the week at that number.
UW -3 @ USC - Tuesday it was UW -3.5, got down to -3 mid week, and now -2.5's are popping. It will be close, IMO. If you like teasers, get USC +9 in there.
LSU +3 @ Bama - Early line was Bama -3.5, has moved consistently to -3. Eh.
Purdue +32.5 @ Michigan - Hasn't budged. Moving on.
Oregon St -13.5 @ Colorado - Again, hasn't moved. Saw a -13 pop up but it came back.
Official plays to come tomorrow!
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:08 PM ^
I considered Alabama -3, but the line being pretty much stagnant at that number all week makes me think the bookmakers are asking for more Bama money and that the sharper side is on LSU.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
I agree. Games like this, if you like either side wait for a 2.5 or 3.5 to pop up. Problem is if you like Bama you're not going to get -2.5. I have seen -3.5 as of this morning if you like LSU.
I am strongly considering a 3-team 7 point teaser with LSU +10, USC +10 and K-State +10.5. I don't usually tease college, but these all seem like tight games.
November 4th, 2023 at 7:23 AM ^
Wait, Oregon State is favored by nearly two TD's against Colorado in Boulder?!? That seems crazy. OSU is a good, not great team and Colorado can score points. That feels like a "whoever has the ball last wins" game to me.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
You may be right - I typically base my plays off of line movement and not so much what I think might happen. These later games typically don't have much early morning line movement because everyone is focused on the noon and 3:30pm games, but this one has already moved down to +13 this morning. Makes me think you're on to something. Get in now before it goes to +12.5 if you like CU.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:23 PM ^
Your Ole Miss Rebels are Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week
November 3rd, 2023 at 8:26 PM ^
Michigan spread should be bigger, honestly. I don't see how Purdue scores, or stops us. I think it'll be a larger victory than the buckeyes had.