Back so soon? We JUST did one of these.

This, as the title obliquely suggests, is Part 2 of the Opponent Watch 2019 preview. Part 1 can be found here. All the usual disclaimers and exclusions apply. See authorized retailer for details. One coupon per customer per click.

Penn State

Last year: 9-4 (6-3 B1G), lost to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl 27-24.

Recap: I don’t like to say “I told you so.” Because just saying it isn’t any fun. I prefer to scream-sing it to the tune of “Tubthumping” by Chumbawumba while banging a pot with a wooden spoon. Pants? Permissible, but not recommended.

Granted, this one didn’t exactly take a lot of predictive power. In last year’s preview, we posted this graph, and asked how things would go with new OC Ricky Rahne calling the shots instead of Joe Moorhead, and suggested things would regress:

Well, Penn State didn’t even get a Wile E. Coyote year in 2018. They fell back to the #36 S&P+ offense, and had the #64 S&P+ passing offense. Trace McSorley dropped from 8.8 yards per pass and about a 155 passer rating in two years under Moorhead to 7.0 YPA and a 124 passer rating — approximately Senior Hackenberg levels of passing efficiency — under Rahne. Maybe part of that was the departure of Saquon Barkley, and maybe part of it was that McSorley wasn’t healthy for much of the year. But Barkley isn’t coming back, and now Penn State has to replace McSorley, Miles Sanders, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Thompkins, and their two best offensive linemen. Tommy Stevens also bailed for Mississippi State, putting all of Penn State’s eggs in redshirt sophomore Sean Clifford’s basket.

Still Penn State wasn’t that far from having a very nice season. They led Ohio State by 12 points with 8 minutes left before losing by a point, they trailed Michigan State for a total of 19 seconds, and they outgained Kentucky by more than 100 yards in a three-point Citrus Bowl loss. The Michigan game, though…

When last we saw them: …the Michigan game was not close. It was not close to close.

This team is as frightening as: Anton Chigurh.

They flip a coin, and you've got a 50-50 shot: they're either going to blast you, or they'll quietly allow you to go about your business. Also, disconcertingly white. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: The defense was very good, and returns most of the relevant pieces.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The guy running things for Penn State will still be the guy who used two timeouts (surrendering any chance to get the ball back in the process) to set up this 4th and 5 play call.

Here's what Penn State went with on 4th and 5 with the game on the line. pic.twitter.com/onhYZGP2RH

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 30, 2018

Never forget that James Franklin was out-coached by Brady Hoke. If there is something worse than using two timeouts to set up an obvious and terrible play call, it’s using a timeout to avoid a 2-yard delay of game penalty in order to take a safety.

When they play Michigan: Who knows. The home team has beaten the hell out of the visitor by an average of over 34 points in the last three years, and this year is in Happy Valley. On the other hand, Michigan is 4-1 against James Franklin.

First game: vs. Idaho, 3:30 p.m., BTN (PSU -potato)

[AFTER THE JUMP: A dense, rival-rich environment]

Notre Dame

Last year: 12-1, Lost to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl/CFB Playoff Semifinal, 30-3.

Because why not.

Recap: For the second time in seven years, Notre Dame finished the regular season 12-0. And unlike six years ago when they lost to national champion Alabama by 28 points, the Irish kept the margin against national champion Clemson to 27. At this pace, in the year 2186 Notre Dame will squeak out a 1-point win over Moon State University out of the PAC-23.

Haha, just kidding. As if we won’t have blown up the moon by then.

Notre Dame’s schedule was rather weak (#61 in the country in the regular season), but it wasn’t truly their fault. When you schedule Stanford, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Navy, Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse, and USC as your last eight games, you have to figure you’d get at least one S&P+ top 25 game out of it, but nope. Their only two such games were against Michigan (which math says they should have lost if the world were a just and righteous place) and Clemson (which math says… uh… likewise).

When last we saw them: Michigan’s game plan was pretty simple: make Brandon Wimbush beat them. And as we all expected, Brandon Wimbush turned into an unstoppable throw-god for like 20 minutes. By the time the NBA Jam “all-time on fire” cheat code wore off, Michigan was in a 21-3 hole from which they were never able to extricate themselves. And it still might have worked out okay, If Michigan’s tackles hadn’t had a catastrophic evening.

This team is as frightening as: Michigan with a purpler coach. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: After benching Brandon Wimbush, Notre Dame found a good quarterback in Ian Book, who threw for 8.4 YPA and 19 TDs against 7 INTs. He was also consistent, throwing for at least 260 yards, 2 TDs, and 7.7 YPA in every start until the Clemsoning.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has won four straight home games over Notre Dame, and has lost to the Irish in Ann Arbor once in the entire lifetimes of the players on this year’s roster.

When they play Michigan: October. And yes, that is very weird. It hasn’t happened during the modern era of the rivalry.

First game: @ Louisville, 8:00 p.m. Monday, ESPN (ND -20)

Maryland

Last year: 5-7 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: For a team that actually beat their Vegas win total for the year … man, Maryland had a pretty damn bad year. Offensive lineman Jordan McNair died in during an offseason workout in June of ‘18, and the staff handled it about as poorly as one could imagine, from McNair’s medical treatment (or lack thereof) to the messaging afterward to the revelations that DJ Durkin ran a generally abhorant and dangerous program of humiliation and intimidation and OH MY GOD THEY REINSTATED DJ DURKIN FOR A DAY IN OCTOBER BEFORE IMMEDIATELY FIRING HIM.

On the field, Maryland was either fantastic or abysmal. There was nothing in between. Their five wins were:

• A win over top-10 Sugar Bowl Champion Texas;
• A 45-14 win over Bowling Green in which they outgained BG by 5.3 yards per play;
• A 42-13 thumping of Minnesota in which they outgained the Gophers by 4.8 yards per play;
• A 34-7 Rutgersing in which they allowed 8 yards passing.
• A 63-33 win over Illinois in which they put up 712 yards at 10.4 yards per play.

Their losses, though, included a 21-point loss to Temple, a 21-point loss to Michigan, a 23-0 loss to Iowa (in a game in which the Terps gained 115 yards), a 21-point loss to Michigan State, and a 35-point loss to Penn State.

Also, uh… this happened.

PIGGY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

When last we saw them: You don’t remember this one, do you? Well, let me refresh your memory: at the end of the first quarter, Michigan had outgained Maryland 132-17… and trailed 7-3 with Maryland having the ball at midfield. A 98-yard kickoff return touchdown and a tipped-ball interception had Michigan fans on the Internets making, shall we say, rather strident comments.

Water, though, finds its level. Michigan had a 17-7 lead by halftime, and the Terps were never in a position to make it a game in the second half. Maryland was outgained 465-220 on the afternoon, with much of the 220 occurring after the outcome was no longer in doubt. Michigan punted once all game.

This team is as frightening as: The AC-130 Spectre level from any game in the Call of Duty: Modern Warfare series.

You just finished a couple of grueling tactical combat levels, and you know the next level is the one where you have to crawl through the mud for like three freeking hours, so the game designers do you a solid and say, “okay, for the next little bit, feel free to rain destruction from on high with total impunity. Have fun.” Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: While the whole is pretty moribund, Maryland does have some parts. Anthony McFarland is very good. Antoine Brooks Jr. is very good. Tino Ellis is very good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has defeated Maryland by an average of 32.5 points since Harbaugh’s arrival.

When they play Michigan: One last relaxing afternoon.

First game: vs. Howard, noon, BTN (Maryland -30-ish)

Michigan State

Last year: 7-6 (5-4 B1G), lost to Oregon in the Redbox Bowl, 7-6.

Recap: Sparty had the best defense in the Big Ten in terms of scoring (17.2 ppg) and yards per play allowed (4.54 YPP). They had the #2 defense in the entire country according to S&P+. And they finished 7-6. At some point, don’t you have to ask “why?”

I'm not asking why, as we know the answer to why they finished 7-6. Their offense hit the ocean floor and took a nap on the seabed. They were the worst Power 5 team in terms of offensive yards per play other than Rutgers. They were the worst Power 5 team in terms of yards per pass attempt other than Rutgers. They were the worst Power 5 scoring offense other than… sigh… yeah. They scored 32 points in their last 4 games combined. 

No, I mean that question literally. If you’re Mark Dantonio, don’t you have to ask “why?” Like, isn’t that your job? Michigan finished 2018 with the #2 scoring offense in the Big Ten and the #25 S&P+ offense in the country, and Jim Harbaugh — noted offensive mind and self-confident person — handed the keys to his offense to a new guy because it seemed like the thing to do. Ohio State went 13-1, and Ryan Day cleaned house on defense. Michigan State is 20-18, and 13-14 in Big Ten play, over the last three seasons. They are a run-first team that hasn’t been able to run the ball in four years. And instead of changing things up, Dantonio’s answer is that we have to become more “us.” Or differently “us.” Like, if it’s “us, but in a Hawaiian shirt and jeans. Well, at some point, guys, guess what:

It isn’t the injuries or the locker room or the stadium or the feng shui of the coaches, guys. Michigan spent a decent chunk of this decade as BoJack. It looks like it might be Sparty’s turn.

When last we saw them: Michigan State gained 94 yards. But that is unfair on two fronts. First, Michigan State didn’t start Rocky Lombardi, which would have led to a glorious victory and the burning of many couches. And second, Michigan State DID gain over 100 yards; in fact, they reached 109 yards before two late sacks brought them back under the century mark.

Now, the whole “went 0-12 on 3rd down” thing? Sorry, I’ve got nothing for that.

This team is as frightening as: Perpetually Angry Northwestern. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: The defensive front seven remains absolutely loaded. They may have the best defensive line in the country, and Joe Bachie is a certified tackler of large humans.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Football remains a game in which scoring points remains the most important thing.

When they play Michigan: Devin Bush proved it. Football is not decided by a dismissive interview quip or a tent stake or a cosmic entity silently passing demerits to karmic transgressors.

There’s still no such thing as ghosts.

First game: vs. Tulsa, 7:00 p.m. Friday (MSU -23)

Indiana

Last year: 5-7 (2-7 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: Chaos evolves. Well, it is probably more accurate to say that chaos morphs. “Evolution” suggests improvement, or at least a forward-looking development. You see, Indiana remains a team marked by shenanigans. But instead of being cheeky and fun, their latest shenanigans are cruel and tragic and douchy and dangerous. So now, instead of the plucky upstarts who were destined to crash into the canyon wall, we’ve got Tom Allen jumping around on the sidelines because he won the first half by two points and talking after the game about how FOOTBALL IS PHYSICAL SPORT SO WE SMASH.

In the end, the results were about the same. The Hoosiers finished with exactly seven losses for the fourth straight season. They’ve beaten exactly one Big Ten team with a winning record in the last decade. There is no reason to contemplate them further.

When last we saw them: It was a Michigan-Indiana game, so everything was stupid, and Michigan won.

This team is as frightening as: This is not awarded until after Week 1, but if I had to say what they remind me of, it would be a large, dense object that is ostensibly a threat to crush you but instead just sits there both ominously and harmlessly. Fear Level = 4 (Fluorite)

Michigan should worry about: This is the trappiest trap game to ever trap. The week after Michigan State. The week before Ohio State. A mediocre but not completely Rutgers team. Inherent Indiana weirdness. Also, you know the old saying: it’s always hard to beat a team 24 times in a row.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 23 is many.

When they play Michigan: Everything will be stupid, and Michigan will win.

First game: vs. Ball State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for reasons that surely make sense to someone but not to your author, noon, CBSSN (IU -17)

Ohio State

Last year: 13-1 (8-1 B1G), Big Ten Champions, beat Washington in the Rose Bowl 28-23.

Recap: So, if you are a long-time reader of this column-type substance, you have probably noticed that I tend to spend significantly less time on Ohio State than their position as Michigan’s biggest rival and chief competition would warrant. This is not an accident.

Look, I get it. Ohio State is Quote The Game End Quote for a reason. They are the Natty-swilling, Van Wilder-quoting, Barstool-reading, trademark law-misapplying black hole at the center of the Michigan football galaxy. All motion is contemplated with the knowledge that everything is ultimately secondary to the gravitational pull of Big Nut’s massive painted jowels. At times, the cloud from their vape pens obscures all other stars, and we are left to see everything with a tinge of gray.

The problem is that this overpowering focus, coupled with the fact that The Game is played at the end of the year, has some Michigan fans treating them like Big Boss at the end of an old-school video game. Not one of these new games, where when you die you respawn at the last checkpoint, or you can just wander aimlessly through the map doing and seeing and exploding whatever you please with no time limits and often no real direction. I’m talking about the old-school games, where you go left to right until there is no more right left. Beating level six isn't good for its own sake, but rather because it means you are closer to The End.

What we’re left with is a number of people who couldn’t even enjoy the utter thrashings that Michigan laid upon Wisconsin and Michigan State and Penn State. Or the part where they won ten straight games by a total of 261 points. We’ve started to declare entire seasons void if they don’t end in a win. And you can do that if you want — I’m not here to tell you how to enjoy your hobbies —but know this: this ain’t a game can be beat. If you win, do you know what happens? You start back over at Level One the next year. And even if you win, you can always do it faster. Or with a higher score. Or while losing fewer lives. Alabama fans have enjoyed the best run in recent memory, and they are STILL collectively pulling their mullets out over the state of things. Billy Donovan won two national titles, and literally put him in a depression.

What I’m saying is, Ohio State will come. Try to enjoy the three months between now and then. We can panic later.

When last we saw them:

This team is as frightening as: You know what else goes from left to right? Half of all crossing routes. Fear Level = 10, but not yet

Michigan should worry about: Nothing comes to mind.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Sleep is for those who have retired for health reasons twice in order to take new jobs.

When they play Michigan: A long time from now. Didn’t you read the thing above?

First game: vs. FAU, noon, Fox (OSU -27)