Hard to believe it’s already that time again, friends. It seems like only yesterday that Michigan defeated Indiana in the last game of the year. What a joyous time. But, like a phoenix rising from the ashes of a torched secondary, it is time for us to awaken to a new season of snark, self-loathing, and schadenfreude. Join us, won’t you?

For those who are unfamiliar, this feature is called “Opponent Watch” for reasons that have long since been lost to history. Every week we will spend a few precious minutes together discussing Michigan’s slate of 2019 opponents, reviewing the week that was and previewing the week ahead. Roughly 35-40% of this content will be in some way related to college football, with the balance filled out by questionable metaphors, obscure historical references, and juvenile bodily function humor. It will contain numerous typos and incorrect statements of objective fact. It will also contain approximately 8.3% Rutgers by volume. Consider yourselves warned.

Let’s do this.

Middle Tennessee State

Last year: 8-6 (7-1 CUSA), lost to Appalachian State in the New Orleans Bowl 45-13.

Recap: MTSU quietly had a pretty good year in 2019. They finished 7-1 in Conference USA and won the Whichever-CUSA-Division-MTSU-Is-In Division. Outside of conference play, though, things got a little rough. They played four FBS non-conference games, and lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia, Kentucky, and Appalachian State ­— admittedly a quality set of opponents — by a combined 113 points. They also lost the conference championship game to a UAB team they had beaten by 24 points the week before.

Relevant

This year, MTSU has to replace four-year starter Brent Stockstill, along with most of the rest of the offense. They probably won’t be particularly good.

When last we saw them: Michigan has never played Middle Tennessee State. MTSU is 0-7 all-time against Big Ten (football) teams, though they beat Maryland in back-to-back years in 2008 and 2009 when Maryland was a member of the ACC. Maryland’s defensive coordinator in 2009? Don Brown. Methinks this is a fine time for Grizzled Grudge-Holding Detective Who Let This Monster Get Away Once And It Is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN UNDER MY WATCH Don Brown to make an appearance.

The Blue Raiders will be the 88th current FBS team Michigan has played. If you’re curious, the remaining teams are: Arkansas State, Boise State, Charlotte, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, FAU, FIU, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Iowa, Iowa State, Kent State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisville, LSU, Marshall, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, Ohio, Old Dominion, San Jose State, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi, TCU, Temple, Texas State, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky, and Wyoming.

Arkansas State is on the schedule for 2020. Please schedule LSU at some point. Please do not schedule Clemson.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of losing the ability to make Giddy Potts jokes for the foreseeable future. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Michigan has never beaten Middle Tennessee State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Giddy Potts is out of eligibility.

SEE? See what we would be missing if Michigan loses this game?

When they play Michigan: WOOOOOO FOOTBALL BACK.

First game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., BTN (MTSU +32)

Army

Last year: 11-2, beat Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl 70-14.

Recap: Army finished last season as the 75th-best team in the country per S&P+. They surrendered more yards per play (5.58) than they gained (5.53). And they finished 11-2.

How, you ask? Well, let’s ask ESPN Analyst Dr. Alan Grant:

The 2018 version of Army Football celebrated the 100th anniversary of the end of the Great War by reenacting Verdun. They exerted huge effort to gain a few slow, agonizing yards at a time, which both fascinated and horrified all onlookers. The Black Knights converted a nation-best 57% of their 3rd downs and 86% (!) of their 36 (!!) fourth down attempts. They also led the nation in time of possession by more than three and a half minutes per game, averaging 38:33 (!!!) of possession. They faced five fewer opponent offensive plays per game than any other team, with the opposition averaging under 53 snaps. Oklahoma ran 40 offensive plays. 40! In an overtime game! WHY ARE WE PLAYING THESE BRAVE GENTLEMEN???

When last we saw them: Michigan is 4-5 all-time against Army, but hasn’t played the Black Knights since 1962. Michigan has won the last four in the series.

In Army’s favor, though, is a history of some impressive road wins, including Japan, Germany (twice), Mexico, Spain (neutral site), and the entire SEC (other than Kentucky and Missouri).

This team is as frightening as: the Darvaza Gas Crater.

Also known as the Gates of Hell, the Darvaza Gas Crater is a natural gas field in Turkmenistan that is so named because it has been burning like the fires of hell since the 1980s. It is scary. It causes significant damage on the ground. And it is amazingly easy to avoid. You have to go so far out of your way to make them a threat that doing so is your own damn fault. Like, if you hear that someone you know fell into the Darvaza Gas Crater, your reaction is “wow, that sucks and all… but what the hell was he doing there in the first place?” Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: For those of you who purchased HTTV, you will know that I already predicted Army to win this game. I’m a liiiiiiittle more optimistic about Michigan winning having learned a little more in the intervening weeks, but… like… this isn’t gonna be any fun.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe some of the triple-option practice time will be valuable two weeks later (after the first bye week) when they face Wisconsin’s triple option of Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor, and Jonathan Taylor in a fake mustache and oversized sunglasses.

When they play Michigan: So much clenching.

First game: vs. Rice, 6:00 p.m. Friday, CBSSN (Army -23)

AFTER THE JUMP: more words and pictures

Wisconsin

Last year: 8-5 (5-4 B1G), beat Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl 35-3.

Recap: Wisconsin entered 2018 ranked #4 in the country, and with more than a smattering of College Football Playoff and national title chatter.

The last thing you see before you die

This, if you may recall, did not come to fruition. They finished 8-5, losing four conference games for the first time since 2012 and finishing three full games behind runaway West division champion Northwestern (yes you read that right). They weren’t bad, ending up #19 in S&P+, but outside of a win over Iowa at Kinnick, Wisconsin ain’t beat nobody; wins over Western Kentucky, New Mexico, early-season tire fire Nebraska, Illinois, Rutgers, Purdue, and clearly-didn’t-G-A-F-it’s-too-cold-to-be-playing-football-in-New-York Miami don’t really carry a lot of collective heft. This is especially true when you consider that their four conference losses were by a combined 73 points.

The defense was fine, but surrendered more than a yard per play more than they did in 2017. And the running game was still outstanding; they finished #2 in the country in S&P+ marginal rushing efficiency, and Jonathan Taylor ran for a billionty yards again. But the passing game collapsed. In their last 9 games, they finished with more than 6.8 YPA only once (against Illinois).

When last we saw them: Can… can he do that? Is he allowed to… WAIT WHERE IS HE GOING WITH THAT???

‘Scuse me

This team is as frightening as: Death by cheese. Slow and painful, but intriguing in a macabre sort of way. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Michigan hasn’t won in Madison since 2001. Also, the two areas where Wisconsin took some real attrition, linebacker and offensive line, are the two areas where Wisconsin has endless natural reserves. Just a big underground spring-fed mozzarella lake whose location is known only to Barry Alvarez.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: If Graham Mertz is the starter (though that isn’t a guarantee by any means), this would be his first Big Ten start. And since Don Brown arrived in Ann Arbor, young guys making their first career Big Ten starts against Michigan have had a rough go of things:

• Trace McSorley, SO (2016): 16/27, 121 yards, 4.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, Michigan won by 39.
• Jeff George Jr., FR (2016): 4/15, 95 yards, 6.3 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, didn’t complete a pass until the game was 31-0, Michigan won by 33.
• Peyton Ramsey, FR (2017): 20/41, 178 yards, 4.3 YPA 1 TD, 2 INTs, Michigan won by 7 in OT because Indiana Weirdness.
• Adrian Martinez, FR (2018): 7/15, 22 yards, 1.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INT, Michigan won by 49.

On the other hand, if Jack Coan starts, Wisconsin will be starting Jack Coan, which also does not bode well for Wisconsin.

When they play Michigan: Jump around.

First game: @ South Florida, 7:00 p.m. Friday, ESPN (Wisconsin -13)

Rutgers

Last year: 1-11 (0-9 B1G), won the Quick Lane Bowl*

*in our hearts.

Recap: You know how sometimes you will hear about a massive ancient event, and without even knowing how to adjust it for modern times or into units you are familiar with, you still know it is bad? Like, when you see that the Black Plague killed between 100-200 million people, you don’t ask, “well, but how does that compare to the then-current population?” Or when someone tells you the Chicxulub meteor that killed the dinosaurs struck with the impact of 100 teratons of TNT, you’re not pulling out a calculator to convert to Joules. Your mind says, “oh, okay. A shit-ton. Got it. Thanks.”

Well there’s your problem

We grade Rutgers on a curve, but you don’t have to convert this one to Rutger Equivalents. When you see a team that that finished 1-11, averaged 13.5 points per game, surrendered 31.4 points per game, and lost by a combined 118 points to Kansas, Buffalo, Illinois, and Maryland, and you have a pretty good idea how bad they were: bad. Very bad. A shit-ton of bad. This blog takes great pride in always looking deeper, but in this case you can take one look at the very surface of this particular poop lake and know what lies beneath. We can dive in if you’d like, but it isn’t like you’re gonna find pockets of Evian or White Claw down there.

For those masochistic souls willing to strap on some goggles and a snorkel, Rutgers’ biggest problem was the offense, and specifically the passing game. It was, without exaggeration, the worst passing offense in recent memory. They threw for 4.5 yards per attempt, with 5 passing touchdowns and 22 interceptions. The running game was bad, the pass defense was bad, the running defense was bad, but the passing game was… special.

…and this was against M A R Y L A N D

2019 doesn’t look much more promising; Pro Football Focus has Art Sitkowski as the worst starting quarterback in this whole great big wide country entering the season, assuming he can fend off Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter.

When last we saw them: Michigan defeated Rutgers 42-7… and didn’t cover. Because Michigan was a 38.5 point favorite. On the road. In a conference game.

Did I mention Rutgers was bad?

This team is as frightening as: Making a terrible prediction on the Internet that turns out to be not so good. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: They are so monumentally bad that Michigan may overlook them.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: In 2015, Rutgers kicked a field goal on the last play of the first half to cut Michigan’s lead to… 35-16. And they used that opportunity to talk trash in the tunnel, causing Michigan to actually care about beating Rutgers. In 2016, Chris Ash got into a satellite camp and general recruiting war with Michigan (remember #FenceTheGarden?), and invited a couple hundred top recruits to watch possibly the worst throttling in conference history.

Rutgers’ only chance to beat Michigan is to fly under the radar, but instead of Sun Tzu they can’t help but go full Leroy Jenkins.

When they play Michigan: Thump.

First game: vs. UMass, 7:15 p.m. Friday, BTN (Rutgers -15)

Iowa

Last year: 9-4 (5-4 B1G), beat Mississippi State in the Outback Bowl 27-22.

Recap: Iowa had a good offensive line but couldn’t run the ball very well, a good quarterback and two NFL-first-round tight ends but a conference-average passing game. They beat Iowa State in an unwatchable mess of an El Assico classic. All in all, a Very Iowa Season, except that they didn’t Kinnick anyone for the first time in a while.

They did manage to play one of the low-key funniest, dumbest games of the year against Penn State. I listed some of the highlights here, but I highly recommend the highlights. Multiple safeties. James Franklin icing his own kicker. A punter dropping a touchdown pass in the bucket to an offensive lineman. Weight room. Community. Big Ten.

This year, if you can tell me that Iowa isn’t going to play a similar game whenever they wear these, you are a braver person than I.

Going BOLD for Our Dear Old GOLD | #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/utbMrQJgcz

— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) June 27, 2019

When last we saw them: michigan has never played iowa.

This team is as frightening as:

Kinnick Iowa:

Road Iowa:   

Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Nate Stanley might actually be rather good. He finished 2018 with 26 TDs and 10 INTs on 7.2 yards per attempt, despite having absolutely no wide receivers.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Iowa loses the two legitimate targets they DID have in TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, as well as leading WR Nick Easley. So unless Oliver Martin is granted immediately eligibility, Nate Stanley is going to be reenacting the Peyton Manning SNL skit.

When they play Michigan: Iowa thrives when they get you looking ahead or coming off a tough physical game or something. Michigan has this game sandwiched between Rutgers and Illinois.

First game: vs. Miami (NTM), 7:30 p.m., FS1 (Iowa -21.5)

Illinois

Last year: 4-8 (2-7 B1G), no bowl game.

The team is bad, but the beard is glorious.

Recap: Things were going okay for Illinois in Lovie’s third year. They were 2-1, and were in a tight 28-24 game with #10 Penn State entering the fourth quarter of the conference opener. And then the wheels, as they say, flew off, killed several endangered species, crashed through an orphanage, and destroyed the village’s entire stockpile of happiness and smiles. From that moment on, they surrendered 11.5 points per QUARTER; they finished the Penn State game on a 0-35 run to lose 63-24, and then surrendered 17, 46, 49, 63 (again), 31, 54, 63 (yep), and 24 points to finish out the year.  In all, Illinois’ 39.4 points per game allowed was the worst by a Big Ten team since 2005 Illinois, and their 7.04 yards per play allowed was the worst by a Big Ten team this century.

The thing that kept them from being full-on Reverse Rutgers was a quality running game. Reggie Corbin led the conference at nearly 8.5 yards per carry, and Illinois as a team rushed for more than 5.9 per carry (and were actually better than that in conference play).

When last we saw them: Michigan has only faced Illinois once in the last six seasons, a 41-8 Michigan victory over Jeff George Jr. that was never particularly close. Michigan scored touchdowns on its first 4 drives, and ended with a better than 3-to-1 yardage advantage. And that was only the second-most satisfying Jeff George Jr. outing for Michigan fans that year.

This team is as frightening as: Condescending platitude here. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Giorgi Bezhanishvili would make a hell of a tight end.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois’ 5-year recruiting ranking is #56 in the country, and ahead of only Rutgers and Purdue. It isn’t as if there is a wealth of talent waiting to break through.

On a serious and disheartening note, Illinois lost their best defender to a serious spinal injury during the offseason. Bobby Roundtree broke his neck in a swimming accident, and will not be playing football for the foreseeable future. He is currently in a rehab facility, and hopes to return to school as a student at some point this year. We wish him nothing but the best.

When they play Michigan: One does not simply walk into Champaign and expect to walk out with a win. No, you have to drive through a lot of corn fields to get there, and only THEN can you expect to just walk out with a win. But I suggest driving out, rather than walking. Again the corn fields.

First game: vs. Akron, noon, BTN (Illinois -17)

 

That's it for this week. Join us again next week to discuss other, mostly better, teams.