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|2 days 8 hours ago||Here, Here||
Here, Here. Amen to that. It's hard. But ever since i've committed to taking stands against horses and trusting in my handicapping, I've become a better player.
1. Have an opinion based on sound principles
2. Take a stand based on this opinion
3. No regrets
(EDIT) 4. Don't ever talk anyone else off a horse, and conversely, don't let anyone talk you off yours. I learned this the hard way with my wife, who won't let me forget it, EVER.
Doesn't mean you can't learn from your mistakes and analyze where you went wrong with the added benefit of hindsight.
Example: The best bet I've ever made in my life, I lost. I would make that same damn bet again if given the chance. This is horseracing for goodness sake, we will be wrong, and quite often at that.
Plenty of bad bets I"ve made have won, especially when I was first getting into this, and quite frankly that was bad for my development as a horse player. Took me a lot longer to figure out steps 1-3 above.
|2 days 8 hours ago||Same here||
Same here for Twinspires. And though I haven't used them recently, xpressbet is also good in my opinion.
|2 days 10 hours ago||If you're in brew city||
I'll be at Potawatomi Northern Lights Theatre for the day of racing with some guys from our more hard core group of players involved in the super.
You sound like someone I could have a drink with and enjoy talking some Michigan sports and horse racing.
Let me know if you want my email or anything. Not trying to be a weird internet creeper or anything haha.
|2 days 10 hours ago||I love that angle||
I love that angle and it is important to me for the Derby. One of best ways to know if a horse wants more distance after their 1 1/8 mile prep.
There are some weird situations this year for horses that don't qualify based on that angle:
Dortmund didn't pass either test, (missed by .2 and .1 seconds I believe) though, he was clearly geared down at the end. For the record, that angle doesn't take into account whether they won in hand easily and were saving some energy for derby, or, whether they were being whipped and ridden very hard to finish. For instance, American Pharoah and Frosted both passed this 13/38 test, despite them appearing to just be out for a jog coming home the last 1/8 mile or their races. That was impressive to me. Think of it whatever you will. Dortmund is a damn good horse, i'm not trying to say otherwise.
Materiality and Upstart came home incredibly slow in their FL derby and didn't pass either 13/38 test, by close to more than a secoind I believe. But the Gulfstream Park surface was dreadfully slow and tiring for that race; evidenced by Materiality getting a 110 beyer speed figure for that race despite it being 2 seconds slower than some of the other preps at same distance at other tracks.
Once again, the angle doesn't take these things into consideration, and says you should chop these 3 horses, period. I tend to give these situations a bit of a break due to circumstances, but i would use this as a "tie-breaker" or sorts if I got to that point between these horses and others.
I haven't seen the list on line - I made my own list, which I currently don't have in front of me, from looking at the past performances and figuring out the times for last 1/8 and 3/8 of mile from their PP's from last 1 1/8 mile prep race (the only situation this rule applies to - fyi Mubtaahij does not qualify as his last 2 preps were 1 3/16 miles).
When you look at their splits for the final prep, subtract finishing time from 2nd to last listed time for last 1/8th, and take finishing time minus 3rd from last listed time for final 3/8ths. If the numbers are way off from 13/38, you know you've used the wrong numbers. All the horses will be close, generally, and this is a matter of 10ths or 5ths of seconds.
|2 days 10 hours ago||It is||
definitely a passion of mine, and I do enjoy writing. To be honest, I had never considered the possibility of starting my own blog and wouldn't know where to start, but you have me intrigued... thanks!
|2 days 10 hours ago||Agreed||
His typical running style would demand a hot pace up front. Happens often in Derby. I personally don't think this year's pace will be breakneck by any means, as many others seem to think, but guessing that can be tough as it only takes one horse to press too early.
He is bred well, he has worked out well all week, and churchill downs is considered his "home track", and he's very comfortable over the surface and with surroundings. If he gets a good trip and things setup for him, he certainly has a chance to be passing tired horses at the end to get up for something.
I will tell you, he was the last horse we crossed off from superfecta pool, and for that reason he is haunting me.
|2 days 12 hours ago||I have done well||
I have done well in the derby the last 4-5 years. This year is a completely insanely deep and talented field. Any of the top 4-10 horses would be top 3 choices any other year. This changes how you hve to play it, but to be honest, I'm not totally sure how.
To be clear, this is not just my opinion. People who have been in the game much longer than me are making claims of "deepest and most talented field EVER".
The same goes for American Pharoah, the morning line favorite. I am of the opinion that he could be one of the best horses of the last 20-30 years. A lot of this is based on "potential" and what we haven't seen him have to do yet, and how effortlessly he has done what he has been asked to do so far. Once again, not just my opinion, though you'll find plenty of those that either agree or disagree.
I am typically a value player and don't bet favorites to win, so to get involved with AP, I'll be using him in Exactas, Tris, Supers, maybe the daily double. Singling him on top will allow the bettor to go deeper in subsequent positions.
I'm running a superfecta pool this year. This is by far the worst year to start that up, after spending 5 hours debating the horses and building the ticket last night with 4 people total of the assembled group. The remainder of the group is just gambling and donating to the cause and hoping we get a winnner.
I won't take time to list it, but our superfecta ticket costs $1344 and has 4 horses that could win it, 7 horses to come in 2nd, 9 horses to come in 3rd, and 11 horses to come in 4th. This was such a tough year to separate the differnt levels, almost impossible. Hopefully we win.
Knowing that i'm invested in the super, i will play the win pool and the exotics to "hedge" the group superfecta picks. That will slightly affect my typical strategy, but have to adjust on the fly this year.
For anyone that wants to know my gerneral feelings:
American Pharoah is a beast and possibly a generational horse.
Dortmund is really freaking good, but I can pick more holes in his career and make excuses for AP (Just personal preference - I can't argue with anyone that thinks Dortmund is better).
Carpe Diem is also really good, but not as good imo, and has enough red flags where I can toss him from top consideration.
Frosted is my value play of this race, hoping for 15to1 odds for my win bet.
Bolo is my live longshot. Hoping he stays at 30-1. So don't you all go out and bet him now, you hear?!?! In my opinoin his turf form transfers very favorable to churchill downs, and he has the distance, is a really nice turf horse with a non-famous but very good trainer, and he will run a huge race on saturday while mostly overlooked from public if he doesn't have a lot of trouble.
In exotics, I will probably toss Dortmund (you have to pick one of him and AP to really bet well and spread everywhere else) and use AP and Frosted on top.
I will have Mubtaahij, Materiality, Bolo, Upstart, Firing Line, Far Right underneath my top 2 in some form or fashion filling out exactas and trifectas.
I realize i've gone on and on about horse racing on a michigan sports blog. My apologies. I could keep going as I've picked this race apart for 3 weeks now... but I'll stop. If anyone has any q's, etc. I love getting other people interested in this great game, and am happy to oblige.
Best of luck to all bettors, and all horses/jockeys during the greatest 2 minutes in sports on Saturday!
|2 days 12 hours ago||I understand||
I understand your opinion.
I've been around the gam for a while. I can say I truly believe these magnificent animals LIVE to run. They love it and even cherish it. EVery one of them, sure, probably not, but the majority.
Just my opinion. You are welcome to yours. I love the game, and wish more people could see it differently.
|1 week 5 days ago||Wait||
Wait, I just came from the 420 thread... Aren't you the guy against legalizing that?
I'm not saying they're related or one is wrong and the other isn't.
I guess your opinions are just, weird, IMO. NTTAWWT
Edit: supposed to be a reply to Achilles somewhere else in this thread. Carry on.
|4 weeks 5 days ago||Up in front!||
Up in front!
Get on my lawn!
Wait, am I doing this right?
|5 weeks 3 days ago||NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO||
Man, best of luck in recovery Drake. We're pulling for you. So many things in life aren't fair.
|5 weeks 3 days ago||With POS||
With position added off top of my head quick:
|5 weeks 3 days ago||Draft Order||
I was going to ask that it be listed by draft order, but then i just copied and pasted to excel, rearranged, and re-pasted here if that helps anyone. Or, I'm not sure how this is going to work, so I'm sorry if I break the internet:
|11 weeks 3 days ago||I will be||
I will be your bahman.
Anytime you need a bah, I've got you. In fact, I have bags of bahs. You can call me your bagman or your bahman. Or your bagofbahsman.
|18 weeks 2 days ago||Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!||
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|29 weeks 1 day ago||So proud of Gardner and all||
So proud of Gardner and all the players. The administration and coaches and injuries and bad luck and everything going wrong all year can't keep the players from just not giving a fuck and playing their asses off.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
|35 weeks 2 days ago||LET'S GO GET IT||
You put your best against our best and let’s ride out -- lets go get it.
-Jourdan Lewis, 2014
Brian, i just, i.... Thanks man.You make me so happy I'm a Michigan fan.
|35 weeks 5 days ago||I sooooo||
I sooooooo want this to be true.
If Borges was ALL the problems and Funk is a great OL coach we must have enough talent to field a cohesive line.
The scrimmage was designed for them to fail and put pressure on them. The veteran defense doesn't need such a challenge.
Pretend the preview's OL rankings are 3's, and we're coming off a disappointing OL performance from last year, but not nearly the tire fire we, and Devin's ribs, had to experience.
Now picture how do our expectations change for this season? I know they're young, but if they could just be a unit that could be mentioned in the category of average come conference play?
Not a ringing endorsement, I know, but that's all we need for a special season in my opinion. The defense is poised to dominate. We have good to great playmakers at skill positions on offense. All we need is middle of the road Oline play.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE I CAN'T DO LAST YEAR AGAIN
|35 weeks 5 days ago||Auction this Sunday||
We have our auction draft this sunday.
Main thing I have to focus on is what 3 guys to keep from last year.
I'm contractually obligated to keep Stafford for 1 more year at $6, before my buddy gets first right of refusal on his $7 contract next year. (this was a crazy deal - which makes our league fun)
I'll also be keeping AJ Green for $6 (i'll have him his whole career probably)
Now it comes down to who I can get the best value for of the remaining options:
TY Hilton $4
Keenan Allen $10
Leveon Bell $10
Calvin Johnson $27
It is a 10-team $100 auction league. Contracts raise 10% (rounded up) to keep a guy the following year. You can keep up to a max of 3 guys each year. My 3rd keeper is real tough for me to decide. Comes down to Hilton/Allen/Bell and how much I'm saving on them, if anything. Trying to guess what they'd go for at auction. I probably can't keep Megatron for that price, but I'll be happy to pay $24-$25 for him at auction.
What say you guys? Do I need a RB? Will Keenan be that much better than TY?
|40 weeks 4 days ago||Auctions are Awesome!||
I would NEVER go back to a snake style draft. Auctions are so much better. I've been the commissioner of an auction league for the last 8 years. Although it's tougher on a commish if he's running the auction and trying to draft for himself as well, I still personally prefer it over snake style drafts. They are so boring after having done an auction.
Some general strategies I've used (or gone in to auction planning on using) in the past:
1. Be the last guy with a few dollars and a few roster spots left to fill. The people who use up all their money early are going to have to wait til everyone is out of money (or out of roster spots) and then whoever has roster spots left will fill in their rosters via snake style drafting. If you have the last $3 and 3ish roster spots left, you can fill in your roster with the best 3 players available (Unless you have a $200 auction with $2 minimum player cost - do the math and figure out based on your league what you need to have left at end for this strategy).
2. Figure out what your starting bankroll is (most leagues do 100 or 200), then divide that by number of QB, RB and WR starters to figure out what you will pay for really good but not great top of line guys. My league we have $100 and 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR.... So with 6 spots for $100 I try to spend approx $15 on those 6 spots and have a deep productive reliable starting lineup - then fill in the rest with a few bucks at end of draft and a couple snake picks. You won't be the guy paying $40 for AP or Manning, and you also won't be the guy who ends up making the most critical mistake you can make in auction drafts....
3. Never end the auction with excess cash reserves!!! (Barring the $3 for 3 players strategy listed above) If your team is filled out and you have $15 left, you either got the most amazing values on players all over your team, or you were entirely too conservative and did not adapt to whatever crazy crap ended up happening in your auction and your team sucks.
4. We have an auction keeper league. You can keep up to 3 players from your previous roster for 110% of their auction cost the previous year. There are pros and cons to this, but overall it is awesome and makes league even more fun. Only reason I mention this is if you do indeed have some type of keeper system in your league, the values on rookies and potential breakout players change drastically. Imagine having Aaron Rodgers for his whole career because you picked him up at $1 at end of auction before Favre retired.
On a sidenote - most auctions work like this... everyone pays $X to join the league and gets either $100 or $200 in fake money to do auction with. I was thinking about finding a good way to do something where everyone shows up with $100 real cash and when you buy a player you are actually going over to auctioneer and paying him the cash value for player. If you leave the draft with $, that's $ in your pocket. There would be some downsides to this with variable cash pools for paying winners. Has anyone done auctions more like this where I could learn from you how it went?
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Love Cold War||
Love Cold War, but he's no NBA prospect evaluator.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||He's white||
He's white and good at basketball. Get over it.
I have no other plausible explanation for why you wouldn't be surprised if he's a 4 year player. That is insanity.
This is his last year playing college ball - enjoy it.
|1 year 23 weeks ago||Good question.||
I would be interested in the answer as well.
|1 year 23 weeks ago||curiosity||
is killing me here...
|1 year 23 weeks ago||I think||
that is AJ Williams, and thank goodness that did not get called.... he is the last one on the field hustling on at the end (why was he not with everyone else running out?) and didn't get set in time with the rest of the line because of it.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Consider||
Consider your ass sniped before you get to me.
Haha jk I don't play but if I did I would be a sniper and my friends and I argue about what is best: Sniping vs. Crazy Insane Run Around Shooting Everything Dude - if there was no inbetween that you could choose. Anyways, TGFJ (Thank Goodness For Jabrill)!
|1 year 24 weeks ago||TGFJ||
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Probably||
That is humbling.
Y EVERYTHING SO TERRIBLE LATELY?!?!?!?!?
Please commit to the University of Michigan, Mr. Hand. Breath life back into MGoBlog!
|1 year 26 weeks ago||Not trying to be||
Not trying to be argumentative and I agree with everything you said, except I didn't go to Michigan, nor have I ever lived there, and I'll be damned if I'm not a Michigan Man. Honestly this is probably hard for someone who did live there/go there to understand, and I totally ger that. But I live and breathe Michigan sports. Just wanted to throw in my .02 - thanks.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||Wha?||
Some people are annoyed that breast cancer gets so much attention
People are "annoyed" that corporations overflowing with riches are capitalizing on a terrible disease and killer of our women and not doing things that would actually help get to a cure quicker that don't help to line their pocketbooks.
Breast cancer, and all cancer, as well as diabetes, MS, etc. "deserve attention". The disparity of attention for the diseases that aren't breast cancer is "annoying" and the fact that the reason for it is "telling people about those other diseases doesn't make us as much $" - is sickening.
Don't even get me started on the most recent stuff about Komen/NFL not giving much at all to actual cancer research, and the tons of $ being wasted by Komen to litigously defend their "brand" instead of putting it towards a cure.... etc.
Do your own research. I've only recently started.... and i am disgusted.