NFL Implications of Title Game for Penix and JJ
Saw this article from Charles Robinson (Yahoo Sports) about the NFL implications of the championship game for both the starting quarterbacks.
Overall take for JJ is interesting and has my full endorsement.
"The general theme of the assessments is an agreement that McCarthy got notably better and more consistent from 2022 to 2023. But there was also an overwhelming belief that he could still take advantage of another year in college."
https://sports.yahoo.com/cfp-national-championship-sets-up-important-duel-of-nfl-qb-prospects-washingtons-michael-penix-jr-vs-michigans-jj-mccarthy-215205170.html
January 5th, 2024 at 5:53 PM ^
JJ really does need another year in college. From a strength and consistency standpoint he needs it. But he does have the skill and talent to be an elite QB at the next level.
Penix was ready last year. IMO, best QB in the class. Injury history is a concern, but everything else he can do at a high level.
January 5th, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^
I concur -- and the Penix example of getting one more year is a good one for JJ.
I think Penix is better this year. Arguably the best deep ball in college and across half the shield already. An offense of Semaj, Don and Morris gives JJ multiple game breakers -- not to mention another year with Loveland.
January 5th, 2024 at 5:58 PM ^
I think JJ is ready now. Problem, if there is one, is he doesn't have many high volume games to assess how good he really is. He operates within the constructs of the Harbaugh offense, since the media and pundits don't watch games they just assume he isn't trusted.
JJ stands to lose more if he comes back. Would happily welcome him back but look at guys like Jake Butt, David Ojabo and Zak Zinter - injury risk is just too high. Go when you can, he's gonna be a 2nd round pick at worst this year. NFL can finish developing him.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:18 PM ^
Everything is reset at the NFL combine. JJ would then have a clean slate to show off what he can really do.
JJ is likely to score very high at the combine, should he choose to go.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:50 PM ^
Contrary to popular belief, not everything is reset in the combine. The only thing that matters is medical checks and interviews. GM and scouts swear by tapes, but of course, sometimes they get overruled by owners who don't know football like Haslam with Johnny Football for example.
January 5th, 2024 at 8:15 PM ^
they also love the numbers: vertical, 40, agility drill, hgt; wgt; etc.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^
Sure as long as they meet the minimum threshold aka do not be too slow. If you meet it, it doesn't matter.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:20 PM ^
O-JA-BO got hurt at his pro-day workout. Further, he wasn't a prospect until he bust out in the 2021 season.
https://www.nfl.com/news/michigan-edge-rusher-prospect-david-ojabo-suffered-achilles-tear-at-pro-dayJanuary 5th, 2024 at 6:44 PM ^
QBs are less likely to suffer devastating injuries than the three line players you referenced. Particularly one who plays in an offense that is primarily a run first offense.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:52 PM ^
I think that JJ has been limited by Michigan's game-planning, but could have a real chance to shine on Monday. I don't see how he gains by coming back, honestly, especially if we win. Too much can go wrong. Maybe, just maybe if Jim sits him down and paints a picture of a year where he has a) strong protection from the line, b) a great array of receivers, and c) a chance to air it out next year, then. . . maybe? Does anyone see that happening?
January 5th, 2024 at 7:26 PM ^
Jim is truly a player's coach. I cannot imagine him discouraging JJ from going if that is his choice-and he believes he is ready. Otherwise, the realities of NFL are formidable/harsh/incredible-take your pick. There is no sliding by here-either you can perform or you are out. Jim would advise him very honestly in this regard. There are advantages for a young QB to be picked a bit later-by a better team who will not throw you to the wolves.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:34 PM ^
He potentially could gain quite a bit by coming back. First and most obvious, the higher he’s drafted, the more he will make on his first NFL contract. Evaluations of where he would land in this year’s draft vary widely. The improvement he’d likely make with one more season at Michigan, maybe with some conversations with the coaches beforehand about being a little more aggressive in the passing game (which also makes sense with the loss of Corum), combined with a less deep QB draft class next year, might see him end up near the top of the 1st round and hit the NFL more ready to play right away. Coming in a better, more experienced player obviously increases his chances of NFL success. Add to that the NIL money he could make and the very strong possibility Harbaugh will be gone, and it’s a very interesting decision he has to make
January 5th, 2024 at 9:16 PM ^
combined with a less deep QB draft class next year,
Agreed. This year's class is loaded. That's a big consideration. He could potentially be the top QB taken next year.
January 5th, 2024 at 9:17 PM ^
Agree.
My fan glass-half-full is that for JJ to really shoot up boards, he has to ball out on Monday. If he does, a Michigan victory seems . . . (Knocks on wood)
January 5th, 2024 at 7:13 PM ^
I agree. JJ put enough NFL throws on film this year to show his skills. I hope he comes back, but if I were an NFL franchise I'd have no reservation taking him in one of the first 2 rounds
January 5th, 2024 at 7:53 PM ^
Playing without the beast that is Blake may lead to the offense opening up a little more, possibly. I know that hasn’t been harbaughs approach, but part of that is not having a qb like jj coupled with having some amazing backs (corum). I at least think there’s a possibility jj will have more passing reps next year.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:45 PM ^
Penix was ready last year. IMO, best QB in the class
He’s also almost 24 and started college the same year as Trevor Lawrence who has been in the NFL three seasons.
January 5th, 2024 at 5:54 PM ^
Yes, I agree that everyone would benefit from JJ spending one more year at Michigan.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:02 PM ^
JJ has fallen out of the 1st in every mock draft I've seen recently. Another year on his current trajectory and he's very possibly the #1 QB in the 25 draft.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:05 PM ^
The question is did he fall out of the 1st round because his play actually fell off or because he had lower volume down the stretch. I think it's more the latter. I obviously hope he stays a final year, but he's already an elite quarterback and unless his throw-volume increases next year, I'm skeptical another year will benefit him in the draft.
I also think he's still a first rounder if he goes this year, mock drafts be damned. He's a natural leader and can make every NFL throw. He'll impress teams at the combine and in interviews.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:46 PM ^
JJ isn’t an elite QB. Not yet anyways. He hasn’t shown that he can carry a team as Penix has.
Can he carry his team to a win?
January 5th, 2024 at 7:13 PM ^
“Can he carry his team to a win?”
Barring a change in philosophy that question is unlikely to be answered at Michigan. That’s why he should probably go.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:39 PM ^
If, like some other players, McCarthy’s only consideration was what was best for himself, he might’ve hit the portal and transferred to OSU. Playing his senior year in that offense, with those receivers, would have been quite a showcase. I’m glad he’s not that guy.
January 6th, 2024 at 7:36 AM ^
Come on. If that last drive in 4th quarter in Rose Bowl doesn't convince you, nothing will.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:58 PM ^
The first pass in the Alabama game says otherwise.
January 5th, 2024 at 8:11 PM ^
Just my opinion, but the drop off in volume only hurt JJ in the Heisman race. The NFL looks past things like that.
January 5th, 2024 at 10:20 PM ^
I think the lack of Corum is an automatic bump up in his throw volume for next season. I also believe that if he is a more effective passer next season then he'll get further opportunities to toss it around a bit as the offense will likely need it.
January 5th, 2024 at 10:34 PM ^
Agree and also I think M is going to have to show they will and can air it out enough to attract high level QB and WR recruits eventually.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:06 PM ^
Unless he absolutely bombs, I don’t think this game impacts Penix’s draft status one way or the other. He’s a first round pick unless he has some abominable stat line line like 15/38 for 200 yards, no TDs and 3 picks. Which is highly unlikely. Maybe some teams shy away from him because he’s older and they feel they won’t get as much time out of him, but he’s a first round pick regardless.
As for JJ, I don’t know. If he balls out in this game and wins, my money says he leaves. He’ll have lost only one game as a starter in his whole career at Michigan, he’d have three Big Ten titles, a national title, and 3-0 over OSU. Unless he just wants to improve his draft stock, there’d be nothing left to prove. And I’m not sure he is in an offensive system that would allow him to take that overall command of the offense that would significantly elevate his draft status.
I’d say he’s 50/50 right now, but as Brian said on the podcast this week, JJ is the kind of guy who’d say “just get me some NIL money and let’s run this back next year.”
January 5th, 2024 at 6:27 PM ^
JJ will probably look to Harbaugh's decision, too. Those two have a special connection and I don't see JJ hanging around if Jim wins it all on Monday evening and then decides to wrestle with his Super Bowl demons. Who knows, Harbaugh may be in a position to continue coaching JJ at the next level. All of us want to see both of them in Ann Arbor next year, but almost everyone can agree with their decisions if they choose the NFL after winning next week.
January 5th, 2024 at 8:33 PM ^
The problem with that is he might not know if Harbaugh is leaving by the time he has to declare (I believe the deadline is January 15).
January 5th, 2024 at 7:51 PM ^
The biggest issue with Penix is his durability issue and medical check. He's a fringe 1st rounder, but most likely 2nd rounder because of durability and medical check. He has been hurt every single season at Indiana. The NFL worries about him holding up in the next level.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:14 PM ^
Don’t get me wrong, I love Penix, I mean who doesn’t? But I hope Penix gets absolutely crushed on Monday.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:40 PM ^
No no not crushed. Gently but firmly beaten.
January 5th, 2024 at 10:40 PM ^
Mel Tucker burner account???
January 5th, 2024 at 6:29 PM ^
JJ should return. Still shows jitters. Still cannot routinely throw passes that need a soft touch, like Penix does. Brady made major improvements in his last year, 1999. JJ can also, and he needs it.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:33 PM ^
Well JJ can't really get it done on this level, no good QB only throws 8 times in a game, so I doubt he has an NFL future.
This is sarcasm by the way, based off our opponents' comments on Michigan.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:34 PM ^
I think McCarthy needs at least 4-5 more years. In fact, he should just Van Wilder it.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:43 PM ^
I doubt JJ comes back, especially if Michigan defeats WA! Harbaugh will try to leave but I'm not sure if he is the top candidate on coaching vacancies in the NFL but I bet he will try.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:10 PM ^
As a Washington fan I thought the new owners might target him, but it looks like they are going young and possible our old friend Mike McDonald
January 5th, 2024 at 10:07 PM ^
Crazy to think how quickly McDonald has moved up the ranks, from a quality control assistant or something at Baltimore in 2020 to dc in college in 21 to now an nfl head coach candidate a couple years later.
January 5th, 2024 at 6:54 PM ^
While I hope he doesn't go, best case for JJ at next level is to go someplace where he gets a "Mahomes" year. Hold the clip board, hit the gym, watch and learn, then kick ass down the road. I think he's going to be tremendous at next level. I'd take him today over the "expert" picks.
Winner, pro coaching, leader, multi-year starter whose played and won on the highest level and biggest stages.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:08 PM ^
2 lines of thought here imo. He could leave this year and fall to a decent team that might view him as their franchise QB in a year or two. Or come back and be a top 10 pick next year for a pretty bad team for a lot more money.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:17 PM ^
I think that the headline misses the point. There's no way this game significantly affects the draft stock of either player, win or lose, 400 passing yards and 6 touchdowns or 4 INTs and a pick 6 or two They're pretty well baked in. Penix will be pick 4-5 among the QBs this draft, however he plays and even an amazing game from JJ wouldn't move him higher if he goes pro now. I'd prefer he stay another year, but not my call.
January 5th, 2024 at 7:30 PM ^
Much prefer he ball out on Monday and cement himself as a Day 1 pick than get him back for a second year if those are the only choices. (They're not.)
January 5th, 2024 at 7:51 PM ^
Happy 30 th birthday Michael Pennix …
January 5th, 2024 at 7:53 PM ^
The “jj could still benefit” take is weirdly incomplete. The chances that a Natty-level year is followed by an even BETTER one are slim, historically. He could be a better player with worse results, with long-term negative consequences. He could get injured.
There may be some upside for JJ staying but his market value is likely not to improve. He could get better next year in the NFL as well. Internet dudes reported making this claim need to take a course in probabilities and decision trees
January 5th, 2024 at 8:22 PM ^
I actually think JJ will set down with JH and with his family and will decide a few weeks after the championship game. Probably well before 15th deadline.
January 5th, 2024 at 9:03 PM ^
I would say Penix' play, along with Miller Moss looking as amazing as he looked in the bowl win over Louisville, has done serious damage to Caleb Williams' draft stock.
January 5th, 2024 at 9:23 PM ^
I think JJ is ready to go. My heart as a fan would love him to stay but I believe he’s best served to go. In my opinion he is top 3 out of the group and will be drafted top 5. If Jim says he’s ready, he knows better than most. He doesn’t just make statements I don’t feel like.