Wisconsin vs MSU impressions and key play summary

Submitted by RealElonMusk on October 19th, 2022 at 11:50 AM

Key insights- these teams look about equal.  W has better O line but made a lot of errors in pass coverage.

  • MSU best pass rushes were delayed corner blitz & interior stunts
  • Wisconsin reminded me a lot of Michigan if you made every player less athletic
  • Michigan has a huge advantage in special teams-  MSU's punter can kick long but lots of room for a return (see image below).
  • Reed had 9 receptions for 117, 1 TD reception & 1 TD throw on a fake jet.  He needs to be double covered-  zone should help
  • Thorne was ok, had a couple of key scrambles. Had at least 2 tipped balls that could have been interceptions.
  • MSU will go for it a lot on 4th down-  would like to see Michigan play a bit conservative on these as MSU likes to go for a mid to long pass in these situations.
  • Despite it being MSU I predict a comfortable win for U of M

 

Key Plays-

First MSU series Wisconsin stops them with a 3 and out and sack with offensive holding in 3rd down.

 

Wisconsin scores on their first series with plays that are similar to Michigan’s.  Wisconsin’s skill players are a clear step slower and less athletic than Michigan’s players.  On an inside run their back picks up 20 yards and if it was Corum that same run is likely a touchdown.  Series ends with a TD.  Wisconsin 7  MSU 0

 

Wisconsin stop MSU on goal line and gets ball back on downs.  Then 2nd play from the 2 Mertz throws an interception at the 12 yard line.  Michigan State scores a touchdown 2 plays later on a delayed play action handoff inside the tackles.  Wisconsin 7  MSU 7

 

Next series Wisconsin’s back gets outside for a 40 yard gain- again with Corum very possibly a TD.  On 2nd Mertz scrambles to the 1 yard line an 18 yard gain.  Wisconsin scores a TD   WIsconin 14 MSU 7

 

Wisconsin has Michigan state at 3rd and 11 on their own 12-   WIsconsin rushes 4, gets no pressure and Thorne completes a 16 yard pass to Reed who picks up 13 after catch for 29 yards

 

Next series Wisconsin has a 3rd and 1 that they have blocked but their run play develops so slowly that 3 Michigan State defenders get off their blocks and make the stop.  Inexplicable play call-  Running back was lined up 3 yards behind the QB in shotgun so had 8 yards just to get to the line of scrimmage.

 

Next series Wisconsin stops 2 runs in a row for a loss and Michigan State doesn’t convert 3rd down.

 

2nd half Wisconsin starts with ball-  Wisconsin runs play action and Mertz has some time but he doesn’t see a delayed corner blitz (corner activates after it’s clearly a pass play) and Mertz is sacked for a loss of 8.   Ends up with a punt.

 

Next series-  Michigan State under center has slow developing run outside the tackles that is well blocked by State and picks up 12 yards.  State is stopped at 40.

 

Wisconsin has penalty after punt so has ball on own 7 and first and 20.  First down screen pass loses 4 yards.  Wisconsin ends up in 3 and 14 and Michigan State commits PI.  Wisconsin is stopped on 2 passes later in series and decides to punt on 4th & 6 from Michigan State’s 39-  seems like wrong decision-  Downed at 2   still W 14, Staae 7

 

State has 3 and 6 at Wisconsin’s 8 after the punt.  State’s RG moves early but is not called and State converts on a pass straight ahead that Wisconsin decided not to cover.  Easy conversion.  Next play is a play action 72 yard pass to tight end- ball.  They get him down on the 12.  MSU converts first down on a pass play to the 1, then scores TD on 1 yard run-    W 14  MSU 14

Next series W gets to their own 40 on short outlet pass that goes 20 yards.    On 2nd and 10 MSU rushes 5, inside stunt not picked up Mertz is sacked.  3rd and 16 Mertz has tons of time-  checks down to TE who picks up 2yds and is tackled immediately-   why you not throw the ball downfield?

 

Long W punt, Reed has tons of return room-  gets 1 yard return

 

MSU 3 and out-  2 runs for minimal game and W sacks Mertz on 3 and 8  W rushed four- sack comes from RT who is out Wide 9 like Okie

 

Next series W has 3rd and 5 after 2 runs, Mertz throws incomplete & should have been an interception.  Wisconsin has bad punt, MSU ball on their own 35

 

MSU’s Reed earns a PI, MSU is on W’ 44, goes for it on 4th and 4 Converts for 24 yards to Reed.  Reed ends up single covered and has inside leverage-   W safety nowhere near and they double covered the tight end to single cover Reed-  Why??   Next series MSU hits 29 yard TD pass to sideline where receiver (Keon Coleman)  is hit on outside shoulder-  W 14  MSU 31

 

Next series-  Wisconsin has 3rd and 19 from MSU’s 35  Wiscconsin’s RB - Bell, picks up 20 on a jet sweep- he’s untouched for 18 yards, picks up 8 after contact.  W at 7 yard line -  W runs for 0 yards, has bad pass play with 2 W receivers colliding in middle of endzone, 3rd run of 4 yards & then Mertz hits wide open receiver in deep end zone for TD.   W 21  MSU 21

 

MSU get ball to W 33, tries field goal but bad snap & holders pass attempt is intercepted (Wisconsin loses field position due to interception).

 

First Overtime-

 

MSU- first down hand off to Reed with Reed throwing for endzone, ball hangs up a bit and should have been intercepted or at least PBUd.  Coleman catches for  TD MSU    W 21, MSU 28

 

W- Mertz passes to no W player in endzone and somehow 2 MSU players manage not to intercept.  2nd down Mertz overthrows TE-  would have picked up at least 5, possible 1st down if good throw.  Mertz hits touchdown pass on 3 & 10 with deep crossing route.  W 28   MSU 28

 

2nd Overtime

W running back fumbles on 1st down, recovered by MSU

 

MSU at 3rd & 12 after 3 yd run, false start penalty and 2 yard reception by Reed.  27 yard TD pass to Reed outside shoulder-  no safety help  Ball Game  MSU 34  W 28

 

 

 

 

Don

October 19th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^

Department of random unimportant stats:

Going back as far as 1922, this is the first time in the Michigan-MSU series that both teams have a bye before the game.

*Edit—after I posted this I reviewed all the seasons prior to 1922, and it still stands—this is the first time in the entire series history that both teams have a bye before playing each other.

98xj

October 19th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^

Yost and Crisler wanted the MAC/MSC/MSU game to be our season opener, and played in mid-September in Ann Arbor--every year. This caused plenty of grief in EL, as their semesters started later, and contributed to the animosity.

GoBlue96

October 19th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^

Thorne is deadly on those sideline fades and back shoulder throws to the pylon.  Hope we are prepared to defend that somehow.  I think on D they will blitz the run and force JJ to beat them which he will.  

MNWolverine2

October 19th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^

It's a very simple throw to make if you practice it often.  The back shoulder fade is obviously something MSU practices often, which makes sense given the ball skills of Reed and Coleman.  It's very hard to defend - the CB can be in great position, but hard to get head around and get back to the ball.

Actually wish Michigan would more throws like this - just give the WR a chance.

CLord

October 19th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^

1,000% accurate.  If you rewatch the PSU game, you'll notice constant, bewilderingly light boxes by PSU.  MSU will bring the opposite.  They'll put 8-9 in the box, blitz a ton, count on UM burning downs trying to establish the run as Harbaugh always does, against their stacked boxes, and take their chances with a rushed JJ airing it out, counting on mishaps and turn overs.  Weiss & co. prepping for this will decide the game.

On offense, MSU will have their standard UM packages, prepped over 365 as only a big brother obsessed little brother would, and will find some success given they do have talent at QB and WR.

This game will not be a blow out.  I might take MSU to cover.

The Homie J

October 19th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^

Michigan State's defense is bad, but they're also amazing at 1 particular thing: goalline & short yardage situations.  Their front 7 isn't as stout as it has been in the past, but I think vs Wisconsin, with some guys getting healthy and a few personnel tweaks, they've found a more reliable front to stop the run.  Jacob Slade returning is massive, as is Xavier Henderson.  Both are massive boons to their run stoppage ability, as is moving Jacoby Windman back to his more natural linebacker position, which also boots one of their biggest weaknesses (the regular linebackers) off the field.

And like you said, MSU constantly bum rushes us and BEGS to get beaten through the air.  The times we've really stomped them (2016 & 2019), we had a big day in the air.  Hell, Cade had his best day numbers wise in East Lansing, but was banged up towards the end and we simply ran out of gas during the comeback attempt.

So it'll be close, but if we let JJ rip them apart with his arm and legs, it should be comfortable at least

gruden

October 19th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^

This game could be a blow out, it just depends.

It does seem very likely MSU will do everything possible to stop the run, hoping that JJ will play hero ball and make some mistakes they can capitalize on.  I also expect they will jam the box and rush every gap.

Fortunately we do have a QB that can scramble and throw accurately on the run, which is a great equalizer.  Maybe PSU feared it too much, but there is good reason for that.  If they can hit a deep pass or two, that may change everything. 

Is MSU really that much different than Indiana, talent-wise?  I doubt it.  I expect it close in first half, M pulling away in second half.  Last year MSU had a great RB and an OK passing game, this year they only have the latter.  While I do expect Thorne to make a few of those passes, it will be harder to do consistently if that's the only dimension M's D really has to work to defend.

S.G. Rice

October 19th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^

The only takeaway I had from watching the game is that Graham Mertz is impressively terrible.  That's what a high 4 star looks like after multiple years as a starter?  Woof.

MH20

October 19th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^

Mertz had one impressive game as a RS freshman -- his very first start, against Illinois. He threw 5 TDs. It then took him nine more games to throw another 5 touchdowns. During that same nine-game span, he threw 11 interceptions.

In 27 career starts, he has 34 touchdown passes. 10 of those came against Illinois in 2020 and Northwestern two weeks ago (5 TDs & 0 INTs apiece). In his 25 other starts, he has 24 TD passes to go with 22 INTs.

In short, Graham Mertz absolutely sucks.

gruden

October 19th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^

I think Mertz' nemesis is in his own head.

I remember when M played them last year, in 2nd Q Mertz just seemed to turn on and looked like an NFL QB, making great decisions and laser sharp throws to get a score.  Then he went back to being plain old Mertz, making poor throws and decisions.

A great QB is in there somewhere, I'm sure Chryst saw what he was capable of and was tantalized by him right off a career cliff.  Most the time Mertz just seems to be in hibernation, a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

WolverineHistorian

October 19th, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^

You can actually go back to the live thread here where we watched that first game Mertz played.  95% of the posters here were completely fawning over him.  I was confused and asked why it’s so impressive to put up dominant stats against Illinois?  I think we’re jumping the boat here.

I think that covid season really messed with our brains because Michigan was such a disaster.  Mertz was considered Tom Brady’s equal after one start and then everyone here started a love affair with Tom Allen and claimed him one of the best coaches in football.  

TeslaRedVictorBlue

October 19th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^

Big 10 at its finest. Outside of UM, OSU, and Purdue, who else in this conference doesn't look like theyre trudging through mud just to cross the line of scrimmage. And it aint because there are all world defenses. Maybe Maryland is on their way. The rest? 

Iowa, NW, Indiana, Rutgers, Nebraska, MSU, PSU. Trash offenses against large slow defenses.

Amazinblu

October 19th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^

One stat that is important in every game is - the turnover ratio, which was in the Spartans favor against Wisconsin.  Ball Security.

Wisconsin fumbling the ball, when they were the first possession (in the second OT) favored the Spartans, too.

It also seems like the Spartans were more effective at defensive pressure than the Badgers were.  The Spartans recorded, 3 sacks, 9 TFLs, and 6 hurries.

The Homie J

October 19th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^

MSU's defense has to be stupidly aggressive, or else they'll get ripped apart.  They cannot cover receivers to save their lives, so it's all about pressure and stacking the box.  If they give the QB time to analyze the coverage, you get a career day from Tanner fuckin Morgan lol

They will absolutely bring the house for the most part when we play.  If we rely on JJ's arm and our speedy receivers, rather than ramming into their strength for 4 quarters, we'll be in great shape

GRBluefan

October 19th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^

Bottom line for this game is that they are going to play jump ball and take a ton of deep shots to Coleman and Reed.  If we can limit those, avoid PI and defensive holding penalties, and make them sustain drives, there is no realistic path to us losing.

goblu330

October 19th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^

I remember OSU running through gaping holes for long touchdowns.  I don't think they had a long touchdown pass, did they?  Gonzales had a goal line TD pass and they hit Ginn deep on third on long on the first series, but I don't think Michigan gave up any long passing TDs.

2018 they did but frankly our DBs were not close enough to interfere in that game.

King Tot

October 19th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^

MSU feels more confident in their defense after that game but it was the most points Wisconsin has put up against a non-Northwestern P5 team. 

I imagine this will look like the Indiana game on defense. They will sacrifice sell out to stop the run in the hope that they can put us into uncomfortable 3rd down distances. I doubt this will be successful because we can throw the ball, JJ can run, and they have not shut down the run this year yet and I doubt it starts with the best run game on their schedule. 

I think this will be a lot like the 2019 game but with more run success.  

Booted Blue in PA

October 19th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^

the infamous 'back shoulder throw'

I think 1/2 the time its actually an underthrown pass.... but saying it was a back shoulder throw is better (for the qb) than saying, "he underthrew that pass, but the receiver made a great play bailing him out"

FWIW

MH20

October 19th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^

Graham Mertz is absolutely terrible. Chryst would still be in Madison were Mertz even average.

EDIT: Then again, as pointed out, Chryst is likely the reason that Mertz is so awful.