Way Too Early Thoughts on 2015
Since we have a bye week, will throw this out there realizing there is a major unknown (coach). What are your expectations for 2015 football?
I will throw out 2 candidates just to see how much people think a HC will change everything in 1 season.
- Scenario 1: A Harbaugh is coaching UM
- Scenario 2: The name is not important, it's a generic non Harbaugh/Miles/Patterson/Mullen candidate. I'll throw out someone like Mark Stoops after leading Kentucky to a 8-4 season.
Backdrop:
Here is the schedule, it is not as easy as it looked 3 months ago
Away
- @Utah (currently 4-1, very well coached, and probably headed to a 8-4 type of season)
- @Maryland (~ Rutgers level of football)
- @Minnesota (currently 5-1, well coached if boring, and probably headed to a 8-4 type of season)
- @Indiana (typical no defense, all offense team, Tevin Coleman will be a senior)
- @Penn State (Hack will be a JR although probably PTSD by then, OL will move from horrid to probably bad, defense solid, tough environment)
Home
- Oregon State (currently 4-1 but has not played anyone, probably headed to 7-5 - will lose their best player to the NFL)
- BYU (was 4-0 but lost awesome dual threat QB Hill to broken leg, put up 41 pts on Charlie Strong's good Texas defense when Hill was healthy)
- Northwestern
- MSU (most likely Cook, Calhoun and Waynes will be early entry and their best offensive player Lippett will graduate but well coached)
- Rutgers (Gary Nova graduates but they get their RB back from ACL)
- OSU (JT Barrett or Braxton leading the charge)
Top 5 most difficult games, adjusted for locations (i.e. road games tougher)
- OSU
- MSU
- @Utah
- BYU
- @Maryland or @Minnesota or @PSU
Projected offense - main losses; Gardner / Funchess
- QB - Speight or Morris (danger)
- RB - Green / Isaac / Smith
- OL - same guys, 1 year older
- WR - Darboh #1, Chesson #2, Canteen, Ways, Norfleet, maybe Harris as 3 thru 6. (Funchess leaves early entry)
- TE - Butt, Bunting, Hill (probably will be the strength of the 2015 offense)
Projected defense - main losses; Ryan, Clark, Beyer, Taylor
- DL - Mario, Henry, Glasgow, Charlton (DEs will have a drop off due to Clark gone, DTs should be better with age, experience)
- LB - Morgan, Bolden (assuming Morgan gets RS at this point with hints Hoke is dropping, only listed 2 LBs since that seems to be our base set in 2014 - Ross III would be the third)
- CB - Peppers, Lewis with Blake as nickel (should be a very good set of starting CBs but could be hurt by lack of pass rush by DEs)
- S - Wilson, Hill or Thomas or Clark
My quick thoughts:
- Offense remains troublesome. You lose your top 2 playmakers in Devin and Devin. No game breaker WR remaning after back to back years of Gallon/Funchess. No game breaking RB but people will place a lot of hope on Isaac as they did on Green 2 years ago. OL has to improve marginally if for nothing else experience. 2 TE sets might be common as that is where the talent is. QB is scary - either a first time starter or a guy who has shown little leads you into Utah and v BYU early.
- Defense remains decent but not elite. Corners improvement offset by step back at DE. DT should be strength of defense. LBs are a bunch of solid guys but not elite playmakers. Safeties - who knows anymore.
- With QB being the most important position in the sport and no elite WRs it's going to be rough early in 2015, and you hope either Morris or Speight comes into his own by game 4-5 as JT Barrett has done. If not, it's going to be tough sledding whomever the coach is.
October 16th, 2014 at 7:50 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
This is what I am thinking. I have a difficult time comprehending both Brandon and Hoke being fired at the end of this season. I just dont see how the timing would work to fire Brandon after the season and then take the time to hire a new AD, even if the process has already begun, who then fires Hoke and then conducts a coaching search. We are way past signing day by then. I think that if the progression is to first fire Brandon, Schlissel will make sure the new AD does not also clean house in the football program. It would be too much chaos. Personally, I would rather see Brandon retained and Hoke fired, but its starting to seem like Brandon is gone - he and Schlissel have antithetical philosophies. To me, if Brandon goes first, that's bad news for our football program.
Unless, of course, Brandon is let go before the end of the season, a new AD is hired soon after, and then Hoke is fired right after the season. But letting them both go at the same time after the season means the timing gets really tricky.
October 16th, 2014 at 7:56 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^
I have myself convinced there will be a reasonable amount of attrition if Hoke is let go and they don't bring someone in that has some kind of relationship with Hoke or someone else on the staff.
Hoke and departing staff would most definitely encourage players to stay at Michigan but I can't see them vouching for a coach and staff that he or they don't have some type of established relationship with. I think that's important in the attrition conversation. Michigan can't afford to alienate the players with a coaching change.
There is a lot of young talent on the roster that will need to be retained to have any reasonable chance at a quick turnaround.
October 16th, 2014 at 8:12 AM ^
I would be upset if Hoke is the coach next year. I don't see where this team has shown improvement in any facet of the game. I like the guy, he's just not head coach of Michigan worthy. This day in age you have to have a football coach that's x's and o's and not rah rah.
October 16th, 2014 at 8:17 AM ^
I remember the excitement that we all witnessed after the hiring of Hoke. I am really looking forward to that excitement once again this winter. Sometimes anticipation is refreshing and I really believe it is going to be a big time hire -- so I am already getting all tingly...
To add -- with this new coaching hire it may shock your aforementioned returning position analysis. I would foresee a couple Michigan hats being lifted at the high school all-star games. Big time recruits will see this as a fairly loaded team, great potential and plenty of spotlight with the new big name coach.
October 16th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
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October 16th, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^
Maybe it was also tied to RR going out the door, but saying "I don't remember many people being excited..." must mean you weren't paying attention, weren't around or choose to ignore.
Please go back to the posts at that time, look at the immediate uptick in season ticket holders, positive charge over Mattison hire and so forth. Hell we spent posts defending the hire against the 11W sarcastic comments (which we now copy and use).
I don't disagree that there were people questioning his resume, but this was well overshadowed by the simple act of getting a new head coach. Then when we beat ND UTL -- it exploded.
October 16th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^
Wow -- please refrain from calling fellow fans douchebags. Also referring to Brian cracks me up -- like "my dad is bigger than your dad".
And it sounds like you work for the ticket office so I will leave you with your superior knowledge. I guess the person I spoke with to rework my tickets about two days after the hire was a mental midget and had no basis for their comments to me.
Also at that point in time, almost any change was necessary because it wasn't going to work. Per Sam!
Now there -- who has the biggest daddy?
October 16th, 2014 at 9:36 AM ^
People got excited based on Hoke's own excitement. Not really before then.
October 16th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^
Plus, Wilton Speight is supposedly pretty good and could be the next Ben Roethlisberger (hopefully without the off the field issues).
Bellomy can only get better, and as a third stringer, all he needs to be able to do is hand the ball of and throw a slant. So he definitely needs work.
Then you have Alex Malzone. He comes in and redshirts and you have quality depth at the QB position for years to come.
October 16th, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
Since the Utah game, my one-word prediction for the next two seasons has been "dogshit". Here's why:
2015 with the current staff - "Wellllllll, see, we're breaking in a new QB and he's only in his third year. As we've established in our time here, a new starter is a valid excuse for a complete dumpster fire at that position, especially if the replacement is not a fifth-year senior. But we've had some great competing-ness in practice and our goal is always to win the Big Ten Championship, so...have I said everything the donors need to hear? Oh yeah, one more: physicalness."
2015 with new staff - "Hey, I'm trying to install my scheme here. And have you seen this clusterfuck of a QB situation they left me?"
2016 with any staff - "Well, you know, OSU and MSU on the road. Tough road games automatically written off is the expectation now at Michigan, so, yeah, 2017!"
October 16th, 2014 at 9:29 AM ^
At the same time, I won't say I don't hold out hope that it can be like the part in BoB when Easy finally gets a competent CO...
October 16th, 2014 at 9:28 AM ^
Although I expect the OL to continue to improve next year, I don't think it will be great. Compunding this is I have not been impressed with Morris or Bellomy at QB. So unless the QBs make major strides, or Speight turns out to be fantastic, I think the offense will really struggle next year. So no matter who the coach is I don't have high expectations for next year. And if we end up with a new coach that wants to go spread-read option, it will be another really rough transition.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:03 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
I may be a fairly new poster but i've been a member since 09 so i've been here a while. But I keep reading these posts saying Hoke should be retained and such and i'd like to ask a question of the people who want or see him being retained.
What have you seen out of Hoke & Co since his time here or on his resume that indicates that he'll ever be successful here? Success IMO is only defined as competing EVERY year for the Big10 title and hopefully by doing so be in the conversation fro the CFB Playoffs. To do that he has to compete EVERY year with Urban and Dantonio who are clearly superior coaches and staffs. Hoke in reality isn't even in the top half of Big10 coaches. So do you really believe Hoke & Co can ever compete at a national level? Be truthful and you have to come to the conclusion that he can't. And just being a nice guy doesn't qualify.
October 16th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
I can't make predictions as of this moment. I thought we'd be pretty decent this year and see a team trending up, growing and improving, setting up a big 2015 season. I haven't seen anything close to that this season. It's possible that next year could be the building, improving year and 2016 is the breakout. At this point though, I just don't know. A lot will depend on the coach and AD situation.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:12 AM ^
improves, nothing will change.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
This is better suited for the diary section, methinks.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:23 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
the draft I think someone would draft him in one of the NFL's 7 rounds.
He shouldn't consider leaving if he isn't a 1st of high 2nd round pick
October 16th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^
His athleticism and potential are incredibly high. The better question is, "is he guaranteed to be drafted in the first two rounds?".
October 16th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
This seems to be internet urban legend that won't die. This is Brian's catch table on Funchess for the year:
| Player | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funchess | 1 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 7 | 1/2 | 5/7 | 18/18 |
So he's dropped two tough ones and only caught half of the circus catch balls thrown his way.
And is he going to be drafted? I wish I didn't even have to answer that. OF COURSE HE'S GOING TO BE DRAFTED. Someone is going to look at all the catchs he makes and the physical tools he has and he'll be off the board by the end of the 2nd round easily. Probably the 1st round
October 16th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
This Funchess dropping balls stuff is really dumb. If you have watched the games you would see that Gardner continually puts his receivers in rediculous positions to catch passes. They have to catch passes behind them or 5 feet over their head, setting them up perfectly to get nearly killed by the defense.
In addition, are you really that incentivized to run perfect routes if the ball is rarely where it is supposed to be?
October 16th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 10:30 AM ^
But I don't think Shane has what it takes to succeed at this level. I hope I (and a growing number of others here) am wrong. I think 2015 will be Speight's to lose after another offseason of conditioning. The only reason he hasn't been given a shot to this point is because of the whole redshirt thing.
October 16th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^
I would like to see Harbaugh take the Head Coaching Job. I think he would recruit some great players at all levels.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^
and developing the talent that is on the roster (provided the 4 and 5 stars were deserved) we could easily see a fast turnaround...10-2 perhaps.
October 16th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^
October 16th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^
I think he's awesome, but his stats are no where they need to be for him to go high in the NFL Draft. I think he comes back
October 16th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^
Need Canteen, Ways and hopefully Brian Cole to step in next season. Chesson and Darboh aren't fast enough.
October 16th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^
7-6. This program will be a mess as long as Hoke/Brandon and the mess stay. No players have developed into NFL type talent under Hoke, recruiting will take notice and the program will suffer the longer he is here. And as long as Brandon is running this ship, it's just re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Sorry, but it's the truth.
October 16th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^
It's really way early to start talking about next year. I am not convinced Hoke goes even at 5 - 7, but he probably will. I think if he claws to 6-6 he stays, which was my prediction at the start of the season. I actually think if Hoke stays were probably still 7 - 5. That is not an endorsement of Hoke, I just believe that the O-line has to improve with age and experience, and between 4 quarterbacks, one of Bellomy, Morris, Speight, and Malzone has to be a somewhat competant starter.
If we got Harbaugh, I am not sure he would be 10-2 or 11-1 right out of the gate. I think even with Harbaugh it’ll take until 2016 to really get rolling. To many weak links, too much of a complacent attitude. To many guys that have now grown accustomed to losing. Harbaugh’s or similar replacement is probably 9 -3.
I am not at all surprised to see Josh Furman excelling. I really expected big things out of him. He came in as an excellent athlete, supposedly was clocked at under 4.4 speed. I would say his was a tremendous waste of talent here at U of M.
October 16th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
As usual the defense projects to be good but not elite. Losing Clark, Ryan, Taylor, and Beyer hurts but we shouldn't have any real holes. The offense will likely have to be more run-oriented without a reliable QB, but the OL should stop being a weakness next year with everyone back.
Remember 2001? Solid defense and running game but a QB who wasn't quite ready? I think 2015 will be a lot like that.