ARG! I'm not worried though.
UM Ranked 16th in BCS
I'm sorry, but a 10-2 Michigan team SHOULD NOT be ranked 16th. We actually dropped a spot after our win.
Wisconsin was right on our heels going into the weekend. Like it or not, their victory over PSU was more impressive than ours over OSU according to the BCS formula.
Nothing to worry about though. We will jump the loser of MSU/Wisconsin and we'll also jump Georgia after they get their ass handed to them by LSU. If Okie State beats the Sooners, we'll also likely jump Oklahoma.
I don't know that jumping MSU (if they lose the BTCG) is a given.
drops them below us in both polls.
Why wouldn't we? They'll have 3 losses, and we would have 2. Plus they will have done the cardinal sin or rankings in losing closer to when the final rankings come out.
Face it the only way sparty is going to a BCS game is if they beat WI. I doubt they will and after they lose, they will be below us in the BCS poll. Because 8-2 is better than 8-3! I know we will see a bunch of angry and whining sparties once this occur!
Fewer losses? MSU isn't that far ahead of us.
I was watching the BCS show and Herbi said if MSU loses and given MSU-UM head to head record it Will probably hurt Michigan's chance of Jumping MSU. It's a pretty big gap from #13MSU to #16Michigan, so if you want us to get in BCS, our best shot is MSU beats Wisconsin and Wisconsin drops.
P.S, Georgia has to lose or/and OK has to lose
It's a mathematical formula, it is the most efficient and even way to do these things. Wisconsin beat a RANKED PSU team, Michigan eased by an unranked OSU team. The BCS is the best system that has been proposed and will eventually work itself out. The rankings don't matter until the last week of the year.
Just because it's a computer doesn't make it right. For example, Jeff Sagarin's BCS rankings right now are ridiculous (for how they're overrating the Big 12). That's not because of a problem with Jeff Sagarin's computer - it's because of a problem with the algorithm written by Jeff Sagarin.
Be fair to Sagarin. He's forced to use those flawed rankings.
Honestly, I think his non-BCS ratings are even worse than his BCS ratings. Here are his overall ratings for Big 12 teams:
Oklahoma State #3
Kansas State #11
Texas A&M #12
Iowa State #29
Texas Tech #44
Need so things to fall our way...
I'm really starting to worry
I DO NOT want to have to root for MSU...FREAK! How the hell did we go down????
We want LSU to win, we want Sparty to win.
Correction: We want LSU to win, we want Oklahoma State to win, and we want Wisconsin to win big. 2/3 will work.
If Wisconsin wins by one point, we'll jump State. No worries unless LSU lays an egg...which I highly doubt.
That said, I hope State gets throttled by the Badgers.
that you cannot control. Let the games next week play themselves out.
How in the world is a 2 loss Kansas State team ranked 11th?!?!?!?
Computers LOVE K-State (and the Big 12 in general). They are ranked like 5th in the computers.
If there was, then OSU would whip KSU! I don't think it matters. Next week when Michigan moves up to 14 or 13 in the BCS, we will get a BCS game.
WI or MSU loss, guaranteed.
I hope OSU beats OU.
LSU will throttle Georgia.
The computers have the BIG12 way overrated.
LSU will beat georgia.
What the fucking fuck is fucking going the fuck on?!!!!
you sound just like my wife every single day.
Georgia loses to LSU Oklahoma loses to OSU we are good to go
I doubt we care that much about a BCS bowl after THE win.
One of Wisky or State will lose. That team will fall below us (even MSU). Then we just have to see LSU beat Georgia-- I don't see Georgia winning that one.
That happens and we are in.
I don't think MSU falls below us unless its a blowout
I am not saying it is right or wrong, but voters care less about head to head than they do late season losses.
In the end, it does not bother me too much. 10-2, beat OSU. Anything else is just gravy.
MSU will have 3 losses, we will have 2. Just because you beat a team does not mean that you perpetually stay ahead of them no matter your overall record. Also, we beat ND, they lost to ND.
and we beat nebraska and they lost to nebraska.
and we lost to Iowa. And they beat us.
But I agree whoever loses the BTCG game drops below us. It's just the way it works
I hear this all the time from OU fans who say well we beat #5 FSU and #4 UT but that was then and look at where these teams are now!
At this point in the season Michigan can take MSU. What happened a couple months ago is water way under the bridge!
There is no way that MSU stays ahead of UM if they lose. There is no way an three loss team can be ranked ahead of a two loss Michigan team.
People need to stop freaking out. Losses by Wisk/MSU and Jowlgia will get UM into the top 14.
This is assuming that the BCS makes any sort of logical sense. Which it doesn't.
We'll be there!
Sidenote: Mark Schlabach-ESPN project Ohio (formerly tOSU) to play Ohio in the Little Caesars Bowl!
A reporter has to ask Hoke, what two teams are playing in this bowl, just to hear his response!
"Well, you know, I only pay attention to Michigan. But those two teams play tremendously physically."
He already said he calls Ohio the Bobcats.
if he'll go watch the game, wear red, wear shorts, stay up the night before, and not eat the day of the game. /s
Don't worry as long as LSU beats Georgia we should be fine cause we will jump Georgia and the loser of the BTCG.
I don't foresee us jumping MSU if they lose, we really need State to win that game.
How often does a loss result in only a one place drop in the rankings? I don't understand...
Objectively baseless fear. Doesn't matter if it's an overtime one point loss, we jump either MSU or Wisco.
They'll have 3 losses and we'll have two. That will be enough, regardless of whether it should be, because voters are dumb.
We'll jump them. They will have 3 losses, we will have 2. We lost to them at their place in a close game. We beat ND who they lost to.
drop to 16th with even a 1 point loss. WI would drop to 18.
LSU will beat Georgia like a drumb...may be by 30 + points. Georgia will be in a free fall.
OU lost several of it's skilled offensive players. I don't see them keeping up with OSU.
We will be 12th or 13th in the BCS this time next Sunday.
Nothing the team control now. We just have to see how everything shakes out.
we can hope for LSU to blowout Georgia and for Wisco to blow out State.. That would put us at 14.
And for good measure we can root for Oklahoma State to put a hurt on Oklahoma.
we'll make it to 14
Wisconsin is already above us, so there is no jumping us. So we need 2 of Wisconsin, MSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, or K State to lose.
1 of those is guaranteed. Another is a virtual guarantee.
We are OK
Wisconsin is already ahead of us.
The 3 teams immediately in front of us:
Thats 2 all but guaranteed losses right in front of us. Plus if Georgia beats LSU we wouldn't get a bid even if we are in the top 14.
This week BCS rankings do not matter...Its next weeks that count! GO BLUE! Everything will fall in place!
What? 16th? This is Michigan Fergodsakes
One of MSU and Wisco will drop behind us next week, so essentially, we're 15th. As long as LSU beats Georgia, we're in the top 14. Okie St. beating OU and Houston losing also helps us. And if K-State loses to Iowa State, which is possible, we have an even better chance.
Add Texas over Baylor for good measure and good luck with this, but New Mexico over Boise.
All i know is wheverever it is and whoever it's against and whenever it's played....
I'll be there.
Does MSMoo stay ahead of us if they lose?
No, voters hate late season losses, and computers hate losses period. If LSU takes care of business and we don't somehow get jumped by Baylor, we'll be fine.
Is that BCS does not use the Sagarin "predictor" ratings -- which Sagarin himself says are the most accurate representation of what is likely to happen on the field. The "other" Sagarin ratings really hit Michigan, and seem to love the B12 this year. That said, if things play out as they should, we should catch 14th.
Here's what could very well happen and I would love it: Wiscy wins and goes to Rose Bowl. Then we get picked for a BCS at large spot over Sparty even though they finished higher than us because we are a sexier draw. Sparty's inferiority complex that even a head to head winning streak can't cure will grow even more. Dantonio will be walking around with an eye twitch next year.
Folks, 10wins now doesn't mean what it did in the 90s. Schedules are too watered down. I think there are what 15-16 10+win teams??
The Big Ten being seen as down based on last years bowls and the regular season doesn't help. If you look at our schedule we had 8 home games and only beat one ranked team. Nothing special.
If we get the sugar great, if not then thats fine. I would almost rather we go take care of business vs a top tier SEC team then play houston. Sugar or not. Its all about respect, and you get it by beating good teams. Lets just let the polls do their thing and take care of business on teh field,
Aside from the "BCS label", the quality of opponent in the Capital One Bowl will be better than 12-0 but unknown Houston.
Yeah, Michigan - Georgia in the Cap One bowl on New Years Day would be a pretty compelling matchup. And we play pretty good there.
Plenty of room to jump ahead, plus we don't even have the slightest fear of losing another game. I think we'll be fine
Michigan will be ahead of whoever loses the B1G championship game and will be ahead of Georgia if they lose to LSU.
When has a loss (to the 14th or 15th ranked team no less) ever resulted in only a one place drop in the rankings? We are virtually guarenteed to be ahead of MSU or Wisconsin come next week.
Kansas State got hulk hands and we got a 100% rawhide wallet? You know what? That's bullshit.
and 3 Big Twelves in his office and just one B1G (guess who).
So we need LSU and MSU to win?
LSU won't be too hard to cheer for, but it's gonna be really hard to pull for State...
Why would we need MSU to win? That is silly. We should rank higher than the loser of the B1G championship whoever it ends up being.
We'd be in for sure if LSU and MSU won, but there's still a chance, however small it is, that State could stay ahead of us if they lose.
If State can lose, and we can still go to the BCS, then On Wisconsin.
We'll be ahead of the loser of the B1G championship game.
Baylor is 17 and they play Texas at home, could jump us with a win
Yep. I would actually say that this is pretty likely. Especially with the RGIII factor on the human voters.
What about the Denard Robinson factor?
What are the chances Houston loses to Southern Miss and they fall below us?
If the worst case scenario is the B1G gets more favorable bowl matchups and we go to the Capital One Bowl to face an SEC team, I'm a happy man. Hoke uber alles.
Are we sure that a Baylor win over Texas doesn't jump them over us?? I really think that if Baylor beats Texas this weekend we might be in trouble.
RG3 is broken. I think we'll be ok.
He's probable for this weekend...he's playing. UT offense is horrible, Baylor wins on their home field
FWIW, Brad Edwards predicts we still go to the Sugar Bowl against Houston.
If Baylor beats a ranked Texas, they will jump us. So we need two of three following:
1. Texas beats Baylor
2. LSU beats Georgia
3, OK State beats Ok
One of MSU/Wisco will drop beneath us. I feel good about LSU, the other two are toss-ups. So fingers crossed...
LSU beats Georgia is most important as it is possible LSU stays at #2 with a loss and SEC gets 3 BCS bids. This would be a double whammy as not only would Georgia stay in front of us, there might be one less at large BCS spot.
I'd also add Iowa State beating K State as another possibility.
These seem less likely to be beneficial as they are not likely to happen or it may not mean the loser falling behind Michigan, but Oregon losing to UCLA, Houston or Boise losing to their respective tomatoe cans would also be beneficial.
Baylor is already 2 ahead of us in the computers. Even with a win won't go up that much more in other polls. Key game is LSU, rest will take care of itself.
I'm hoping for a Houston loss, then we can play in Sugar Bowl against a much better opponent. Thus better ratings and more national attention.
We've got a bunch of CS majors here right? Someone just gather up all the data the comptuters are using, run some regressions on it, and figure out what their formulas are so we can figure out our ranking in different scenarios. Just make sure you do it in the next week, because after that we'll have no use for the numbers.
At least we have a better computer ranking than both MSU and Wisconsin(15 vs 16 and 19 respectively), so whoever loses will drop even further in the computer rankings and least a few in the human rankings. I can't see the loser of that game staying ranked ahead of us. No worries here, still rooting for Wisconsin to roll.
This is about what I expected. Presuming MSU loses next week along with Georgia, UM should jump ahead. And for all the fretting about Baylor, the bowls have the right to pick around the rankings a bit if they want.
Not if Baylor jumps UM and takes the 14th spot in the BCS rankings.
its allllll good..as long as LSU beats Ga..were good..the loser of the Wisc/Msu game and Ga jump us up two anything else like Okla losing is gravy...LSU is NOT going to lose to GA
It would be bad if Clemson beats VT because they probably won't drop enough in the polls. So I'll be cheering for LSU, Ok State, VT, So Miss and Wisconsin.
I know we all want Sugar Bowl but Capitol One Bowl just tweeted this.... "VERY interesting to see Michigan drop one spot. Wolverines need to be at 14 for at-large berth to BCS." seems like we would for sure be there if we don't make sugar
As much as I would like to see Blue in the Sugar, I would love for us to mop the floor with a SEC team so it will shut up all these SEC nut swingers I am surrounded by down here.
BTW A win over Bama' next year would help us big time in the polls next year coming down the stretch.
I'm about 98% sure we pass the loser of the BTCG, but I'm a little less positive about us passing Georgia...we know how the pollsters have been reluctant to drop teams that lose to LSU...I'm really hoping for a Houston loss and a KSU loss just to make it 100% that we get in.
... thinking about the Capitol 1 Bowl. Arghhhhh.... why didn't we beat Sparty!!!!
this is tremendous
If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.
My confidence level that UM will be ranked at least 14th in the final BCS poll. So don't worry. And if something strange happens where we don't make it to the 14th spot, then the Capital One Bowl will be a great bowl game. This team surpassed my expectation this season with 10 wins.
Though it would be sweet to blow out Houston in the Sugar Bowl. That game could give us a lot of national exposure and help us grab some big recruits in 2012 and 2013!
I'm sure everyone here knows that Baylor fans are having similar discussions on their less-impressive blogs. If they beat Texas handily, they should move up, as well. Since Michigan is off, Baylor could conceivably leapfrog us.
While this interpretation does not follow computer algorithms, Michigan's drop in the rankings may have something to do with not covering the betting spread, which was 8.5 - 9.5 points. So Michigan won, but not convincingly and OSU appeared stronger than Nebraska, which Michigan beat handily the previous week.
I wonder how many judge pundits use a method involving cover - not cover record, instead of win- loss ratio. I would have to go back to records to compare MIchigan record, but they have had some close games. If nothing else, our punter needs some practice catching snaps.