Prophetic Preseason Analytics
I read this article when it was originally published and thought, well, we have Harbaugh so I don't care what your numbers say about our team. Looking back now, these analytics have been proven somewhat prophetic.
I'm still disappointed the team hasn't played better and I expect more from our coaching staff, but at this point in the season, these numbers provide perspective.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigans-lineup-was-gutted-how-much-will-it-matter/
October 24th, 2017 at 10:59 AM ^
Michigan's top ranked classes were '16 and '17. Those guys are sophomores and freshmen now.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
Yes, but at the very top, the recruiting rankings are non-linear.
And OSU beats out UM handily every single year.
It may only look like "a few spots" nationally, but getting into the details, it's a massive difference in talent.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^
In the past 4 recruiting classes, the "average" Michigan recruit is a 90.00 on 24/7; OSU is 91.5. And some of that is due to Michigan's massive 30-person class two years ago and Michigan only getting 14- and 16-person classes prior to that. OSU is recruiting like gangbusters, but Michigan has a better average recruiting ranking these past couple years than basically anyone not named OSU, Alabama, and FSU. They're ahead of Clemson and Georgia, and a bit ahead of LSU.
It sucks to have a rival doing well, but OSU is not "handily" beat Michigan in recruiting.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
So then OSU is coaching its talent better? What would you like to attribute the differences in performance to?
If your premise is Michigan and OSU are getting equal talent and unequal results, what's U-M's issue?
October 24th, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
October 25th, 2017 at 1:43 AM ^
lmao you joined the blog like 5 days ago
October 24th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^
Pretty sure he's saying that is inequal talent.
Personally I feel Urban runs a much more college-friendly offense, but it might only be possible with that level of recruits. He also never had to deal with a 2 year recruting hole.
October 24th, 2017 at 8:38 PM ^
October 25th, 2017 at 1:41 AM ^
Maybe, but your QB pulled the lid off that platter.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
I'll disagree - but Bronxblue ably spelled out why in his reply to you. I'll add that OSU and Bama - and now Clemson - are rolling out replacments to departed draft picks that are already upper-classmen that have spent 2-3 yrs in the system as a backup. They know the schemes, have played them against the starters, and have (most likely) seen a fair amount of playing time. They are not running out inexperienced youth to play with other inexperienced youth - none of which have any experience in the system you're playing. That is what Michigan did this year on offense. Defensively, Michigan ran out youth with experience - and the results are vastly different.
You can't get to emulating Bama's rolling of experienced players until you get some players with experience.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
This is so true and why they reload every year. Bright side is we are getting there, especially with the start of the 2019 class. But continuing to take "diamonds in the rough" and "projects" like we have are important ways to ensure seasons like this rarely happen. Just hopefully there won't be the mass amount of those in the years to come.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
I would argue OSU got massively out-coached by Oklahoma this year.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^
I know we should be doing the same. JOK is every bit as good as Watson and Mayfield
October 24th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^
I mean... we just played a probable CFP team and lost by 29. OSU played one playoff team last year, and lost by 31.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
O-H-3I-O
October 24th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
They still beat our best senior squad since 2006 en route to that blow out. Doesn't look good for us Bob.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:05 PM ^
Valid, but I still feel like we'll look back on 2016 as Harbaugh's worst veteran team (and yes I believe he'll win multiple championships here).
October 24th, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^
And then Meyer went out and hired Kevin Wilson who has turbo-charged OSU's passing game. I REALLY hope Harbaugh makes a similar move on the offensive side of the ball this offseason for UM.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
Didn't OSU lose a similar amount of starters when they beat us last year (and played/ were destroyed in the CFB playoffs)?
October 24th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^
Since '14 each OSU class has been ranked 7th or better. Michigan '14 and '15 classes were 18th and 40th with '16 and '17 both 6th. OSU had 50 recruits between their '14 and '15 classes, Michigan had 30. The '14 and '15 recruits and Juniors and Seniors. Even with departures, I'd venture to guess OSU still has more and higher rated bodies around in the Junior and Senior classes. Sure, young talent is seeing the field at OSU, but it is mixed with experienced talent.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
And the officials in their back pocket.
I will go to my grave considering the 2016 version of The Game a win for UM. OSU did not beat UM, the refs did.
#neverforget
October 24th, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
And the refs.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
It's often overlooked, but nobody recruits refs as well as OSU.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
Sure, but we had Speight, who was a RS Jr and starter for a season.
Also, our QB play hasn't been our only problem.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
Yes but I did notice something that was interesting for their team last year and that was what they were returning at key positions. JT at QB obviously, their best lineman from 2015, their best H-Back/RB from 2015 and that was just on offense.
Also, most of their inexperienced starters had at least 3 years in the program before playing.
Conversely, Michigan is relying more on 2nd-year players than OSU did. Obviously they have older guys on the line but their best lineman is playing out of his natural position and the other two couldn't get on the field at an earlier point in their career. It really just comes down to the lack of contributors from the 2014 and 2015 class.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
As I recall, somewhere on here there was mention of the very high correlation between returning pass catchers and overall offensive success. My hope was that talent among the FR would overcome the lack of experience, and there was some hope in the early season, but I think the loss of Black has been a big factor turrning a bad situation into a dire one.
From my amateur eye, not only are there too many drops and poor routes, but an inability to get separation that is making the QB and OL play look even worse.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^
Honestly curious what you all think: is the primary goal to win as many games as possible, or to win championships? Because if the goal is to win championships, which I happen to believe, wouldn't Harbaugh want to find out sooner, rather than later, what he has in Peters, in the hope of improving our odds of a championship next season? No matter how poorly he has performed in practice, there is always a chance he outperforms expectations on the field. Of course if the goal is to just win as many games as possible, then I agree you start the QB who you believe gives you the best chance in each game.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
will respond that Harbaugh is simply waiting until Peters reaches some arbitrary level or "readiness" before he plays, but the truth is that the handling of the QB situation since the spring game has been very puzzling and certainly does raise a number of questions about what to expect for the next few years, on a couple different fronts. I would not ask them here though. It does not go particularly well.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
That is a false dichotomy. Those choices are not mutually exclusive. You play the best players at the time to win the game. By winning games you build a championship caliber team.
Also I would think coach would lose the respect of the current seniors on the team (and perhaps more players) if he were to tell them he doesn't care about this season anymore and he is just building towards future seasons. Despite all the armchair quarterbacks we have in our fan base that are clamoring for this that is just not how running and motivating a team works.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
response also contains a false choice, at least if Brandon Peters is going to be a future QB here. Why would Brandon Peters playing simply be "playing for the future" instead of trying to win now? I think that JOK is giving maximum effort and doing everything he can personally do, but he has not thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks and cannot make any reads. If you believe that Peters cannot not play better than O'Korn is currently playing, do you really believe he is the quarterback of the future at Michigan?
October 24th, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^
I don't want to get into this again. I hope that either O'Korn or Peters or both do well this Saturday and that we win all the games.
October 24th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
Iverson.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
I respect your opinions, but I strongly disagree with your second paragraph. Just as some athletes shine in practice situations but fail to succeed in games, there are also athletes that underwhelm in practice but regularly succeed in games. Practice performance simply doesn't correlate perfectly with game performance.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
The Peters thing is getting very tiresome. I tend to be in the group that says Coach Harbaugh knows what he is doing. Peters may have the skill and abilities to be a great passer but his leadership is far below what is needed on the field. If you can't lead in practice there is no way you can lead in a real game. The offense is far more complex than a qb who can throw accurate passes. UMBig11 stated that many of us will eventually get our wish with seeing Peters but we will not be impressed. I know it will happen but i am not looking forward to that day. If you think our offense is going through growing pains now, just wait until Peters is thrown into the mix.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^
we defeat Rutgers this Saturday
October 24th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 11:21 AM ^
I don't know why this was neg'd, it's an insightful, dead-on article.
And it's not just reflective of us.
Look at what has happned to some elite teams from last year, like FSU and USC. Same thing that has happned to us.
Conversely, look at what has happened to these former "hot seat" programs as they have flipped the script and gotten older and healthier: Notre Dame, Penn State, even Arizona.
Yes, Alabama and Ohio can merrily skate by no matter what, but the rest of mere mortal CFB is impacted by youth and injuries.
In this era of scholarship limitations and every program getting exposure on TV, older/healthier players beat younger/injured players more often that not.
October 24th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
Yes, Sparty is a good example as well. They have gaps, but they have older and healthier palyers in some key positions and it shows.
We don't like them, but there were some legit reasons they had a losing season last year.