Prophetic Preseason Analytics

The linked article should be required reading for all Michigan fans.  The analytics there are pretty hard to refute.  Given how many starters we lost, what we are experiencing right now is not only expected, but probably not as bad as it would be if we didn't have a top flight coaching staff.  

And, while the article predicted some pretty serious regression, it made that prediction assuming that we would be returning our QB.  We did, and we didn't lose a single game with him.  But, losing the QB - when combined with all of the other starters who did not return from last year is just too much to paper over with HARBAUGH AND DON BROWN WILL MAKE US WIN.  It just doesn't work that way unless you have an OSU / Alabama roster.  We don't, and other than those to schools, nobody else does either. 

As a final note, the article posted doesn't take into account that our roster is devoid of upperclassmenm as a result of a coaching change a few years back.  While I can't find the post, I recall a few years back that someone on this blog did an awesome analysis of the value of returning upperclassmen, as opposed to younger players, and the conclusion was that having lots of seniors and juniors as starters makes a huge difference.

So, combine that analysis with the article linked by the OP, and I expect that we are actually well exceeding our expectations this season.  If we end up at 8-4, given our roster make-up, we should all be applauding our coaching staff and eagerly awaiting the future as these young players develop into seasoned, experienced starters.

Fire Drevno!

Unacceptable!

Don Brown's defense has been figured out!!!

OSU wins with freshmen at every position, why can't we?

Harbaugh is the 4th best coach in the division - pathetic...

 

Did I miss anything?

 

What has been troubling? We saw a spring game where Peters looked good, we didn't see the spring like the coaches did. It was an open competition for a long while and then narrows down to Speight and OK with Speight winning out.

At this point without question Speight is and was better, just not what we hoped he be, yet. So the coaches started the better player and now their doing the same or Peters is in the doghouse.

Either way what is arbitrary about that? My guess is your going to say your arbitrary analysis of Peters after seeing the spring game. Perhaps it was Peters best day by far at any point or perhaps he has regressed since. Just saying that I think we have seen the best playing and if they aren't they're is a reason.

I knew going into this season there would be a drop off. I did not think it would be this bad however. But looking at the competition, I thought we would beat MSU and Wisconsin. I know that sounds strange, but Wisconsin, I thougt, our defense had a real good shot at stopping them the most since they have a pretty simple offense. 

The main reason I thought we would only lose a few games and be really competitive was because of, get ready, Wilton Speight. 

say what you will about how he started this year. Wilton Speight is a huge upgrade over JOK. 

When you lose your starting QB, and with an already young WR core, losing Black hurt us pretty bad too. Beat Rutgers, Maryland and Sota, with an upset over OSU (doubtful as they are on fire and will probably beat Penn State) or Wisonsin, and I'll be a happy little wolverine!

Beat Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland to get to 8 wins.  Play close against Wisconsin and OSU.  Then hopefully win the bowl game to get to 9-4.  Then start prepping for the revenge tour of 2018 where we run roughshod over the big ten and notre dame on our way to a conference championship and playoff run.

Phil Steele basically said the same, and I wondered what made him the expert on this.  Well, he was basically right and if I recall had us down for three to four losses.  He did say that 2018 would be a better year.

 

We may return Speight next year, so that is good.  And i'm sure we will develop McAffrey/Peters in the process.

There is a whole lot of hindsight bias in this thread.

I felt 8-4 was spot on in preseason, but then we beat Florida and my expectations went up.
I figured PSU, OSU and Wisconsin would be tough.
I was worried about MSU because even though they were bad last year, they were in a lot of games until the 4th quarter.
You look at the last time Dantonio went 5-7 they lost a lot of close games and followed it up with a 10’win season.

Did anybody see Bill C's article this morning? Basically, makes the same exact point with a valid criticism leveled at Harbaugh's offenses since coming to Ann Arbor. 

The gist?

All the numbers said 8-4. Michigan is on track for 8-4. They had horrible turnover luck vs State and got blasted by the #2 team in the country on the road at night. They'll definitely be real good going forward.