POST SPRING GAME Overreaction W-L Prediction Thread
Other than few hijinks in Italy we are about to go full submarine for many months. So based on what you drank today, have at it...
Last year I went into the fall saying it was a 3 game season - @MSU, @Iowa, @OSU. Overestimated MSU and underestimated Wiscy and Colorado. The difficulty of big road games still weight over this program even as Harbaugh has ascended.
This year, I say it's a 4 game season - FL (neutral site), @PSU, @WI, OSU. MSU will always be tough as we are their everything but with about 39 scholarship players looking like they will be available for that game the way things are going, I'm going to mark that down as a win, esp in AA.
Cincy, Air Force (tricky offense), @Purdue, @Debord (no longer chaos), Rutgers, Row The Boat (tm), @Durkin are the 7 other games. The chance for a slipup @MD as a trap game is possible right ahead of 2 monster games to end the season but I'm calling that 7-0 because this is Michigan fergodsakes. Add in Mork's Red Lockster, and I give it 8-0.
So what say you on the final 4 games now that Peters has been installed the 2:1 favorite for Heisman. Based on WHEN the game happens (UM SHOULD improve dramatically AS THE SEASON goes on, barring a key injury to a thin area due to expansive youth), I'd rank the games in this difficulty based on opponent, location and timing.
- OSU - because always OSU [if not Fickell]. At home but OSU is going to be top 5 most likely and possibly 1 loss-ish (trap games @Iowa, @Nebraska - I guess. They get PSU at home) , and their youngish team only adds 11 games of experience.
- @PSU (mid Oct) - chaos offense with stud RB, in very difficult environment
- @UW (right before OSU) - I don't know enough about what Wisconsin returns on offense but they should have a very good defense in a raucous environment. It's a slugest team built to matchup with what UM does.
- UF (neutral, very early but a team with many questions) - 2 youngish teams, should be a defensive slugfest. First one to 14 wins. 4 months of offensive planning by Harbaugh and Pep >>>> 400 months of planning by Nussmeier. Wildcard is if Zaire shows up on UF campus.
Discuss! (man)
I didn't see today's scrimmage but the constant here seems to be that Speight isn't the guy. I know it's the internet and everyone has a hot take but didn't Harbaugh say Speight belonged in the Heisman conversation last year prior to the injury?
Heart says 11-1 with a loss at Penn State, finally getting over the Buckeye hump and winning a close one against the Badgers (who I think we match up well against stylistically).
Mind says 9-3 with another brutally close loss to OSU, but an impressive bowl showing to ascend to 10-3 and have people hyped for 2018.
Either way: @PSU is harder than vs. OSU at home this year.
Football is a strange game, and football seasons are strange animals. Funny things happen, like random punt blocks and bad ref calls. Teams are much worse (hello 3-9) or much better (Colorado, dude) than they are expected to be.
As attractive as breaking the season down to just those four games might be, I think we lose at least one game that we aren't expecting to lose or perhaps even be competitive. Funny stuff happens. A freshman WR bounces a pass into the arms of an LB or a sophomore DB blows a coverage or one mismatch exploits a serious flaw we don't even know about yet.
This team is talented but extraordinarily young, even on the scale of young teams. We look at OSU last season, but they were still in better shape then than we are now, and we have a particular weakness in the OL which could torpedo the entire program.
So I anticipate a totally unexpected, board-meltdown type loss. My guess is that we beat Florida (I usually don't like big games the first game of the season, but this gives us a chance to play them before any gaping flaws are discovered that might be exploited later) and that we beat MSU. One out of the two road trips seems reasonable. I wouldn't be surprised to see us go into the OSU game at 8-3.
And then it's four hours of terror.
Honestly it could be worse if the OL and/or the defensive backfield don't come together, or we get a kneecapping injury. 10-2 would be about the best I could hope for even if everything goes right, and after over 30 years of rooting for Michigan I know that "everything goes right" keeps company with Santa and the Easter Bunny.
I've been following Michigan football for a long time. Unexpected losses are far more common than a lot of people on this board would like to admit. As you say, weird stuff happens, and it happens even more often when you have a shaky Oline and uncertain quarterbacking. Even if you are a 95% favorite in every game (which we won't even be close to), your chances of going 12-0 are only about 50-50.
April 16th, 2017 at 12:23 PM ^
Peters on offense and Hudson on defense were the top performers, but it's hard not to have Bush the top 'dude' on defense. Maybe I just had more questions on whether Hudson could play viper that were answered than Bush in the middle. Both were answered today, imo.
PI call on Thomas wasn't PI imo. St Juste had a pretty good day. Most seem to be saying Black owned him. Black is awesomeness but thought St Juste had some pretty good coverage.
But back to Peters ... He's going to be AWESOME! He scrambling ability almost makes him a dual threat. lol He's quick/elusive.
Edit... we are NOT going to lose to PSU.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
do you come up with that? would be great, but i'm not seeing it.
April 16th, 2017 at 10:01 AM ^
Now I'm reasonably confident that Hudson's stats will be better than Peppers which some might use in a post season argument.
But i think that doesn't account for opposing teams that literally had to game-plan around Peppers.
Regardless, it's a wonderful luxury to have these conversations.
This team is no where near as good as last year, but I think it can have better results. and win the B1G title. A) all three losses were toss-up games last year, close-game luck should revert to the mean. B) OSU is going to be better than us, but this year is in AA which should take it to close-to a toss-up. C) I'm still not sold that Penn State is actually good.
April 15th, 2017 at 11:02 PM ^
April 15th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
No way we lose to Florida....We just have to beat MSU/OSU at home split against Wiscy/PSU n were in championship game....But I don't see Wiscy being as good as last year, they lost all their defense....This team reminds me of last year's OSU team, QB coming back and alot of players getting drafted.... We'll be absolutely fine.....PSU has a pretty tough schedule too they better hope those 2 good players stay healthy...GoBlue!
April 15th, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^
Penn State's schedule 'pretty tough'?
Looks a lot easier than Michigan's schedule. Non-conference schedule is easier. Big Ten schedule also easier. They don't play Wisconsin.
Well they do have to play @Iowa, which for us is basically a death sentence.
...M has to play at Wisconsin. Wisconsin (pre-season no. 10) is a lot harder than playing at Iowa (pre-season no. 39).
I was mostly making a joke about our notorious struggles against Ferentz.
Overall, though, I'd say Penn State and Michigan have fairly even schedules (and probably two of the harder ones within the conference).
We have a harder non-conference, as I think Florida is slightly better than Pitt plus we get them at a neutral site instead of at home. Air Force/Cincy are also a better duo of minor non-conference foes than Akron/Georgia State, but that's the least significant part of the schedule.
In terms of the Big Ten schedule, I think the Nittany Lions have us beat by a modest amount to even things out overall, for two main reasons.
First, are our respective cross-divisional matchups with the Big Ten West. I view the West as a three tiered division.
Tier 1 (Teams that consistently compete for the division title and have hostile stadiums to visit):
- Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
Tier 2 (Middle of the pack: these teams haven't won a divisional title/seriously been in the conversation, yet they typically knock off one or two of the top tier a season and are not easy outs, despite lacking fearsome home stadiums):
- Minnesota, Northwestern
Tier 3 (The bottom dwellers; these teams are easy outs for the vast majority of the Big Ten, and home vs. away makes little difference in terms of competitiveness; small, consistently empty stadiums):
- Illinois, Purdue
In 2017, Michigan draws one matchup from each tier playing @Purdue, vs. Minnesota and @Wisconsin. While it's not an "easy" crossover slate by any means, it's about as middle of the road as you can expect (particularly in an odd numbered year with two Big Ten West road games).
On the other hand, Penn State draws two of the top tier (@Iowa, vs. Nebraska), plus a road game against a middle tier team (@Northwestern). (Keep in mind, Northwestern is the only Big Ten team besides Michigan that James Franklin has played multiple times and never beaten.)
Secondly, the ordering of Penn State's schedule makes it more challenging.
- Opening: Penn State opens Big Ten play on the road at Iowa, in what probably will be a night game. Meanwhile, a young Michigan team will have the opportunity to ease into the season. Our Big Ten opener is against lowly Purdue, followed by a bye week before hosting the rival Spartans (coming off a scandal and 3-9 season) in The Big House. Even after that, we have another road game against Indiana before having our first true challenge.
- Pacing: If there's one thing you could say about Michigan's schedule, it's pretty well paced. Our first three games are all fairly easy before a tough one at Penn State; afterwards, we have another easy three games (vs. Rutgers, vs. Minnesota, @Maryland) in a row before a tough final two at Wisconsin and vs. Ohio State. Penn State, on the other hand, has a brutal stretch of vs. Michigan, @Ohio State, @Michigan State three weeks in a row in the middle of the season.
- Ending: We admittedly have a harder ending to the season with the Badgers and Buckeyes back to back. PSU does host Nebraska the week we play Wisconsin, but their finale (@Maryland) is nothing compared to ours.
you lay out an extensive case. So I upvote you for the thorough analysis...
But...
1. I still think playing Wisconsin is harder than playing Iowa and Nebraska. Nebraska always underperforms. Wisconsin seems to almost always overperform. I would argue at this poiint there are actually 4 tiers in the Big 10 West--with Wisconsin alone in tier 1 by a good margin, and Nebraska and Iowa in tier 2.
2. Pacing. I agree that the pacing issue works well for Michigan (except for Florida in week 1). With such a young 2 deep, playing the better conference teams in November is ideal. OTOH pacing is not at issue for Penn State, as they do not have an unusually young 2 deep.
3. Not sure there is any real difference between NW/Minn/Purdue crossover. No way to know how good/bad these teams will be in 2017.
April 15th, 2017 at 11:02 PM ^
I gave my thoughts on the season W-L below. That aside, I think this linebacking crew could be the best we've had at Michigan in a long time. Bush and McCray? Wow. Eat your heart out, rest of the nation.
And the future at DB looks extremely good. St. Juste showed a ton of potential. Ambry Thomas could very well be Jourdan Lewis part deux.
Hudson, Kinnell, Washington, Gary, Kemp, Winovich, Glasgow.... The D is locked and loaded for years to come. The talent is raw right now but it's the spring. They'll bring it together and get better. I saw a bunch of big, rangy, athletic bodies out there. Physically speaking, they looked good. Add some real game experience and they'll be right where we expect them to be in short time. Michigan may not be a playoff team this season but expect it next season and many thereafter.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^
Early loss to Florida and late loss to Wisconsin on the road in some ridiculous weather. Who schedules Wisconsin in November? Beat PSU on the road and OSU at home. Go to the Big 10 title game and win it to make a NY6 bowl game but not the playoffs due to the 2 losses.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^
April 15th, 2017 at 11:11 PM ^
@iowa @northwestern @osu @msu vs Michigan.....That could be 5 losses ghost of fritz
April 15th, 2017 at 11:32 PM ^
I could see losing to UF, WI, PSU, OSU and one team we were suppose to beat. That could be as many as 5 losses. On the other hand I could see this team beating everyone on their schedule if they get the right bounces and calls in games. My bet is we split the PSU and WI road games, we beat Sparty and the buckeyes at home, so I think we will finish with 2 or 3 losses. We can really build momentum if we beat UF in the opener.
April 16th, 2017 at 12:24 AM ^
Must win game against Florida....This isn't FSU....All the pundits will call for coaches head if we lose to Florida...I love the direction of this program we don't need breaks to go our way...Play to our potential limit turnovers n dumb 4th down penalties...I'm really excited we have both sparty n bucks at home ...Side note NFL fans better hope peppers doesn't go to pats or Steelers ...Idiot draft analysts don't know how to use him, most dynamic all around player in draft....But they'll get hype for some wr that runs 4.25, plz these are the same peeps that wanted leaf over Peyton
April 16th, 2017 at 12:56 AM ^
April 16th, 2017 at 12:56 AM ^
So we beat Florida...Next we go @purdue (MSU) then @indy @psu (2weeks later) @mary @wiscy.
I like how we have cupcakes the first week of the away-away
I don't know about the rest of you, but I have booked my plane tickets to Atlanta for January 3, 2018, return January 10, 2018. Should be a fun time whether Michigan wins or loses, but you KNOW we are due for a win in a championship game.
9 wins as the floor but dissappointing.
I predict 10-11 wins during regular season. Fuck OSU.
I really think Harbaugh has to get it done against OSU this year. It should be the focus of the whole season.
April 16th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
The thing to watch is improvement in the young team through the season. I hope this team is a lot better by the end of the season, baring major injuries. Even if we go 7- 5, I will be very optimistic for 2018 and future seasons. I think Harbaugh will have a very good chance winning a national championship in 2019. I just hope people don't freak out if we do go 7-5. I think we will play our toughest games later in the season, so I'm hoping more for an 9-3 regular season record with may be a major upset at home against OSU at the end of the season. Though it probably will not be enough to win the BIG this season.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
When Im realistic people call me a pessimist. THIS is pessimism. I will guarantee this team will not have 5 loses. 4 loses is the floor with this team. The ceiling is 1 loss. even with the amount of young players this defense has they are more talented than the players Brown had at BC and he still had top 10 defenses there. Plus what barely anyone is taking into account is that the players who will start have a year in his system. Last year our starters were in their first year in a very specific system and we saw issues from that in the Colorado game and a few others. I think inexperiece iin the secondary will bring what you saw Saturday, still close coverage but some added pass interference penalties due to not turning around.
April 16th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
April 16th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
Early loss (either to UF or Air Force).
Long win streak, including upset of PSU.
End season with losses to Wisconsin and OSU.
Go on to win bowl game.
Sets up monster 2018 season.
of losing the odd game to an inferior team . . . Air Force?
I'm just not seeing that.
April 16th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
I also don't think it's unimaginable. Weird offense no one is built to stop + early season kinks yet to be ironed out (esp on OL) could create problems that are sorted by midseason.
UF seems like a more likely problem for us, given when in the season it occurs.
Did Kingston Davis dress? Was hoping he'd play.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
Hes transferring
April 17th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
April 17th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
Im going to mostly agree with you except I think that we will lose 2 and I dont think we lose our last 2 games. My prediction would be that we lose @PSU (prob a night game in a whiteout), and Either Wisc, or OSU. Florida has no QB with experience and we will blitz whoever starts until they start huddling over before the pocket collapses (see 4th quarter of last year Wisconsin game)