Over under set at 7.5 wins
If you used Sagarin numbers from last year (the most current available) agains the most current numbers from the opponents on this year's schedule, you could probably baseline the season at roughly 9-3 if you assumed for the moment that a positive projected margin of victory meant "win" regardless. Granted, if you actually calculate the projected margins this way (with 2013 numbers, mind you), not all wins are equally likely, but there is something to make you believe that last year's team plus additions and experience (plus maybe a revised scheme) could make 9-3 an achievable baseline.
I didn't totally understand that reference..."achievable baseline". In my mind baseline is the lowest possible likely record, no? And, achievable is more like what is possible within reason. So to me baseline is like 7 wins and achievable is more like 10. I certainly don't picture 9 wins as baseline. That would be pretty optimisitc IMO. I mean when is the last time they beat a ranked team on the road? That automatically gives you 3 losses right off the bat (ND, MSU, OSU). And, PSU and NW won't be gimmies. The fan in me tells me UM can win 3 of those games, but that doesn't mean they will. And, I'm sure they'll drop one game that no one expects them to because well...they always do.
Edit: wrong thread
Staee was at 9.5 and Ohio was at 10.5 FWIW. Those teams are pretty close IMO, State's out of conference trip to Oregon is why they are different.
Especially if the bowl game is included.
I'd set it at 8.5 and then see what people picked.
Any chance the downfall began with Appy State and WILL END with Appy State?
And then John Bacon can write a book about the uncanniness of the situation?
/WINK!
I'm tired of the excuses about how young we are, other coaches and programs have gotten it done, why shouldn't we?
I expect at least 9-3 but 10-2 or better is possible, Hoke and crew need to get it going, this is it.
Losing the three games against good teams plus another flub wins you money on the over? I'd bet 2015's PSD on that.
Anything less than 9 wins is unacceptable at this point, there must be progress. 8 wins and Hoke should be fired, period.
If just regular season and not bowl very plausible.
MgoEMOs have all 3 road games to rivals as losses so that really leaves only one "fuck up" game (lose to someone equal i.e. PSU ....or worse in a WTF game) as a margin of error to avoid a 7 win regular season. If this was the 2015 team I'd be way more bullish but right now without the bowl I have 7-5 with upside to 8-4 as UM almost always drops a "huh how did we lose that and to them?" game yearly.
But I'm EMO - ND or OSU are not great this year but our OL remains scary until proven otherwise. If we took a typical Lloyd Carr team down to South Bend or Columbus I think we'd win both. We are still a year away I am afraid due to OL.
This team could be 7-5 and still be improving a lot - a lot depends on how competitive they are at MSU and OSU more than the record IMO. Remember the OSU and ND games were home last year and right now Hoke's ability to win against even average opponents on road is in the "prove it to me" realm.
I expect an 8-win season. Playing at all 3 rivals on the road will be tough games. PSU and NW are not automatic wins by any means. The opportunities are there for wins, the talent is there, it seems like the coaches are doing the right things, Nuss seems like a good fit, and a lot of underclassman got a lot of experience last year. But, people have to develop and positive steps need to be taken before you can predict much more than 8 wins IMO.
I've said this before but the number of wins are not all that important this year. What is important is development and how the wins and losses occur. If the defense is aggressive, the offensive line and running game are improving, the team chemistry seems good, and there isn't negativity after every game then the record doesn't mean that much. If they lose 4-5 close games and do those things it's not a big deal. If they struggle all year, never show progress, and continue to have more questions than answers then the coaching seat starts to get hot. Either way Hoke gets another year to show what he can do with his guys in 2015 where he finally has some experience and seniority, but if the latter occurs next offseason will be a lot less fun.
Over 7.5 and Devin Gardner for the Heisman.
We have a Senior QB, 2 Solid Running Backs, The BEST LB's in the conference, and Peppers coming in to light a spark. Oh, and Funchess! 9-10 wins, and excitement.
to be completely honest, I see us as going 6-6 or even 5-7 next year. I think that there are 3 guaranteed losses next year (ND, MSU, and Ohio) and there are multiple toss up's (Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, NW, and Indiana). So given that we win half the toss-up's and the inevitable loss to a team we should beat, I don't feel that my predication is way out of bounds. I know most on this board will disagree, but I just honestly don't see us being any better a team that barely qualifies for a bowl.
I don't recall a single positive post from you. It's all whiny garbage.
Outside of the Nussmeier hire, can you name a single thing that has been good for the program or reflects that the ship is turning around? I know I certainly can't. I hope Hoke get's us back on track and that we return to the top, but forgive me I just don'[t see that happening
I am overly excited about our defense this year. Call me crazy but I see 10 wins. We will win 1 of 2 between EL and Cbus.
Then if the season goes awry, find a sparty and bet him that hoke will keep his job.
That would be bad. Won't keep his job I guess? Help!
Obviously the 3 rivals, and then I see us going 2-2 against NW, PSU, IU, and Minn. That plus the inevitable inexplicable loss to a team we should beat gets you the 6th.
SO YOU ARE SAYING THERE IS A CHANCE???????? *Dumb and Dumber reference*
I fell, based on Hoke's leadership, or lack thereof in terms of proper motivation, has been the missing ingredient throughout his limited tenure here, and it's scary to have to look at the schedule and say 8 wins based merely on the lack of strength of the opposition. Couple that with the fact that things like PSU have happened frequently, although not always resulting in losses, but games which should have been blow outs in our favor have, sometimes by nothing but pure luck, i.e., the Rountree catch vs. NW, have resulted in narrow wins which are just as effective in preventing a Michigan level of confidence to manifest, instead resulting in player's second guessing their capabilities when, based on their degree of talent should result in exactly the opposite. ^He has proven this does not have to be the case based on his three tries at OSU, the first two of which should have been won handily except for a never to be explained second half game plan that continuously saw us pick up 8 yds on first down and then pound it twice into the line and kick. The D held steadfast, allowing only 6, but because of this ridiculous play calling, instead of pulling a reverse on the Tressel/Carr situation, it has given Urban reason to believe they just might have our number when it comes to who makes the critical and correct decisions. ^No excuses this season. We have it in place, talent, coordinators with impeccable and irreproachable credentials. Motivation at about 85% of the level Bo brang to each game, which incidentally was built in increments beginning with the first practice, resulting in a confidence that close games to far lesser teams were an anomaly and not a trademark of our team. This is the missing ingredient and has to be resolved. If so, 10 wins should be an annual occurence, normally playing for the 11th or 12th come bowl time. We simply have too much talent from staff on down to second line players to conclude anything but the above.
10-2.
We didn't change OC's to repeat 7 or 8 wins...Nuss raises DG's game, wide receivers suprise and we have 1600 yards from the tailbacks. GMatt focuses the D from the middle and Peppers is, well, Peppers. This is a 10 win season if we avoid major injuries to DG, Green and MFJR.