OT: Sweden’s economy grows in first quarter
There have been many controversial threads about Sweden’s policy of “lite lockdown” and the excess of death they have had compared to their Scandinavian neighbors.
Despite predictions that Sweden’s economy would suffer just the same, that actually did not transpire this far
Sweden’s economy actually grew 0.1% in the first quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html
By comparison, Norway’s economy contracted by 1.9% in Q1
Finland contracted 0.9%
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/statistics_finland_economy_is_officially_in_recession/11375177
Denmark contracted 1.9%
Obviously, still way too early in the game to draw long term conclusions, but found it interesting given that many US states are about to go the route of Sweden whether they admit it or not.
Don’t apologize, it’s an informative post.
It's not informative. I can't believe I've gotten this far in the thread and no one has mentioned there wasn't a pandemic in Europe or really even outside of China for most of the first quarter. It exploded in China in late January. I was in Italy in late February and nothing was closed. It hit Sweden even later. The 2nd quarter will be way the one that's informative.
I had to scroll a long way to finally see a post on how Q1 barely included the pandemic response in Sweden. Thank you.
That was really my thought, and an additional thought would be, how did Jan and Feb fare for Sweden? Or even through Mar 15? I would have to think much was biz as usual.
Q2 will be more interesting.
The differences between Norway and Sweden are interesting for Q1, but I wonder how often they track together in general? Maybe within 3% of each other is common, or do you think it closer to 2%? Geographical culture seems somewhat similar, but have to think more variables in play if Sweden has a larger economy.
Don't apologize. Rather read this than some recruit from 2023 narrowing down his choices
Point well taken. Appreciate your cordial response.
Well, there have been other sweden posts on here
Most of them posted by you. But you seem to have a hard time describing the Swedish situation truthfully.
In your prior posts you kept insisting that Sweden had done "nothing" when in fact they've passed a number of restrictions, they just haven't required most businesses to close.
Now you're making an absurd comparison. No sane person would argue that a country that shut down its economy would experience an economic the same growth during the shutdown as a country that did not. The argument is that they would ultimately be better off (like in 2021-22).
Why is it so difficult for you to handle this objectively?
Just for shits and giggles, let's check in on South Korea...
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-52845015?__twitter_impression=true
This tells me the lockdown was a mistake....the minute you open up, the cases will shoot up again and round and round you go. We can't do a national shutdown for 3 months for every month of open economic activity, it's suicide. This is an interesting interview from Johan Giesecke who is very well known epidemiologist from Sweden asking the Australians how they plan on managing the opening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SdUmsMLW0o
Per the CDC, IFR is 0.26% when you include the asymptomatic. This is just not as bad as everyone believes.
" This is just not as bad as everyone believes."
Except...100,000+ dead.
and yet also....~328,100,000 not dead.
If the way that you think of things is that 100,000 dead in three months is not that big of a deal, then sure, you would conclude that its not that bad.
But I do think that 100,000 dead is a big deal.
And, if you could go back to early March ask people if they thought 100,000 would die from coronavirus by Memorial Day, not very many would say, 'so what? no big deal.'
So...is it possible the reason I was for the lockdown before was to protect deaths with all good intentions and reason I don't care now about deaths is because I'm weary of this whole thing and bored at home?
Fair enough. Caught red-handed.
It's a very big deal that 100K died in just two months -- when most of the country was on a lockdown. First consider that, absent the lockdown, the number of dead would have been anywhere between 1 and 2 million. Which would have absolutely demolished our hospitals, thereby leading to even greater and faster spread. Not to mention the fact that 100K understates the actual number of deaths because that figure includes only diagnosed deaths and doesn't include the god knows how many people who died at home or before testing was (relatively) more widespread. Virtually no epidemiology experts dispute any of the above. But somehow amateur "experts" on sports boards think they know better. How about maybe trust the experts rather than your favorite shock-jock.
There's a massive confidence interval around that because health, genetics, strain of virus, viral load and exposure play a massive role. As do things like access to health care and new treatments for the virus that may or may not be available to you. So it's a massive band and it may be quite low in some communities and quite high in others.
Did you intentionally omit age from the list of confidence interval variables or was that supposed to be implied by "genetics" maybe? Because when 42% of deaths come from 0.6% of the population - specifically those above age 80, that would seem like a significant factor.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#606827a474cd
And I think the 42% is probably 10-15% too low given NY claiming 19% from nursing homes when almost everyone else of similar size and geography is at 50% or more and Canada is at 81% of deaths from LTCs.
Regardless of what you think of their approach, you have to hand it to the Koreans for being incredibly organized in their actions. Again, not commenting on if it is right or wrong, but the coordination, tracking, discipline, all seem other worldly.
They were on it and prepared. Almost like they had been through this recently.
Just say it. South Korea got it right.
No need to hedge on whether they got it right or wrong. They got it right.
Q1 means very little wrt this issue. Q2 through Q4 will be more enlightening.
And I don't remember anyone claiming that Sweden's Q1 economy would be as bad as those that shut down. That's comparing 12 weeks of economic activity (Sweden) with 9-10 weeks (Norway/Denmark/Finland).
I am more and more convinced we should have just done the Sweden model, because we're basically doing the herd immunity strategy anyway, we just also decided to wreck the economy by shutting down too late and opening too early for the lockdown to have any effect.
We're going to end up with the same loss of life we would have had staying open but with all the same economic loss of countries that saved thousands more than we did. We managed to have the worst of both worlds. Only in America, Baybee
Respectfully, your MAGA hat wearing head is stuck way up your own ass if you believe deaths would be the same (or eventually the same) if we had just stayed open. The only reason major hotspots didn't run out of ER space and ICU beds was b/c of the shutdown and even then for a few weeks, it was close. Hospitals at over-capacity for the past 8 weeks would have resulted in 1000s and 1000s of more deaths and not just Covid related ones.
Respectfully, you don't know jack shit about his political beliefs
"Respectfully" - you have a funny way of using that term.
To quote Ricky Bobby, “with all due respect...”
Just because you said 'with all due respect ' doesn't mean you can say whatever you want
It sure as hell does!
Respectfully, I'm commie scum.
Our president dilly dallied until shutting down was pointless and most states have stretched the term "essential worker" to such absurd lengths that too many people have been out and about spreading the disease for the shutdown to work. I see little evidence we've mitigated anything, only that some states have gotten pretty good at classifying Covid deaths as pneumonia.
@KBLOW - It was never close....please stop insulting people if you yourself don't have facts to back up your claims: https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients
Just a few stories from areas where hospitals struggled to keep up
New Orleans
In New Orleans, where most Louisiana cases are concentrated, doctors and nurses think a breakdown might come sooner than that. “Systemic collapse is a true concern,” said Kenneth, a New Orleans emergency physician. “It's not Lord of the Flies today, but our supplies—face masks, personal protective equipment [PPE], gowns, beds and ventilators—are dwindling, and everyone’s getting nervous.”
Kenneth and other emergency department nurses and doctors said their hospitals are at or close to capacity. Because health care infrastructure is sized to meet the population—393,000 people live in Orleans Parish—New Orleans’ soaring caseload could easily overwhelm an already strained system. Right now, doctors are sending home patients who should be in the hospital.
"The hospitalist service has not wanted to admit 'stable' patients with [both COVID-19 and comorbidities like] diabetes," said Michael. "Normally, I'd be screaming that they should be admitted. But the people I admitted [with COVID-19] were sicker.”
Albany, Georgia -
ALBANY, Ga. (WALB) - Phoebe officials said critical patients who come into the Emergency Center in Albany are being transferred to other hospitals.
Phoebe Putney Health System has transferred more than 160 new patients to more than 20 hospitals in the past two weeks, including to hospitals in Atlanta, Columbus, Macon, Tifton, and Valdosta.
Phoebe CEO Scott Steiner said that as of Thursday, the five Intensive Care Units at Phoebe Main are full.
As of Thursday morning, there were 49 patients in the four ICUs that are only treating COVID-19 patients.
When a new patient comes into the Emergency Center at Phoebe, Steiner said they are stabilized, then transferred to a nearby hospital.
He said finding more staffing to serve more beds continues to be an obstacle.
Prince Georges County, MD
Prince George’s County hospitals have been inundated with critically ill coronavirus patients and are sendin some to facilities outside the county when they run out of beds, hospital officials warned Tuesday.
These are just a few of the stories a cursory search turned up.
Cannot wait for Anyone Who Disagrees With Me Is Automatically A MAGA Hat Wearer guy to disappear soon. So tiresome.
Respectfully you are a typical liberal socialist dumbass
I think you missed his point. May want to carefully re-read.
Totally agree wished all did and betting history will feel same way esp when take into account trillions of dollars printed and fact upwards of million in India could die starvation.
Yes let’s try the Swedish approach without the social safety nets that the Swedish enjoy! That should work really well for us here where most of the population is broke after one paycheck expires.
Murica.
TheCube nailed it. This is such a huge distinction between Sweden and the U.S. The hidden cost of employees having inadequate or no health coverage or little to no sick pay is immense amidst a pandemic. As is the dire state of our current unemployment system.
The advent of HSA plans make this point even more pertinent. You're looking at plans that have upwards of $2,000 deductibles w/ $4,000 out of pocket maximums all while not covering for medication expenses unlike their PPO counterparts.
Something tells me most Americans don't have a maxed out HSA account, so...
It's a disaster.
Hell, I have a decent PPO "family" plan that's about $850 /mth and still has a $4k deductible (can't recall what my max out of pocket is, I believe it was $8k), and that's at a very large multi-national corporation that otherwise pays very well. The system is so jacked. I'm not sure how to begin fixing it exactly, but something needs to change.
I'm in almost that exact same boat, although my premiums are a little lower.
$1,500 deductible, per person, before they pay anything, especially for mental health services. And yet I can only put $2,700 in my HSA account each year. That money is gone by April or May, if I'm lucky.
Something like 20% of my total income goes to healthcare each year, and I do fairly well. It's a massive drag on the economy.
But what I'm saying is that we basically did copy 85% of Sweden and locked down just enough to fuck the economy up and accomplish little else. Of course the complete shit show that is USA healthcare meant we were always going to be screwed. Nobody has shown me any evidence that a mishmash of chaotic lockdowns where most states have these huge "essential worker" loop holes and half the states are re-opening months too soon has saved any significant number of lives.
This has basically turned into TSA security theater but with the side bonus of giving every Wall Street company a bailout and an excuse to layoff their workforces and pump more profits up the corporate ladder.
I feel like Sweden has been debated ad nauseum here, but I will leave one comment:
I have my CoronaVirus tracker spreadsheet. I am a data guy by nature, so of course I have a spreadsheet. :-)
If you look at all ~ 200 countries in the world, and their daily case count and the shape of the curve, which countries do you think the United States numbers are most correlated with?
The top 4: (1) Romania, (2) Canada, (3) Sweden, (4) UK.
Canada makes sense, they are our neighbor. The UK make sense too, slow to get testing ramped up and not nearly the same rate of decline as their Western European peers.
Then there is Sweden. The take-away that I get from that: our lockdown actually is more like Sweden's lockdown than the rest of Europe. No, our restaurants and schools weren't open (like Sweden), but from a social interaction POV we really haven't been that much different.
As for Romania - I have no idea why they are #1, but they are. :-)
Gypsies man ...
kidding, I am ignorant as fuck re: Romania
To be fair, there are a lot of gypsies. The real problem is the vampires, though.
Yup. Its Dracula's fault.
It is Count von Count's fault.
That demonic (how else do you explain his ability to produce lightning at will?) vampire with a hand up his butt is probably enjoying counting Coronavirus cases.
I agree. And further, we are basically adopting their model completely by opening up.
18 months from now when this is still happening the 2.5 month lockdown at beginning going be considered mistake
I agree with the exception of heavily infected metro areas.
I’m generally in favor of opening up now with a step-wise process, and I disagree that the initial lockdowns were a mistake. Cases were exploding, we didn’t have adequate testing, hospitals weren’t prepared to treat it and lacked PPE, etc. I think the initial lockdown allowed hospitals to take the initial surge, recover and start to develop better protocols to protect themselves and to treat patients. Additionally, PPE issues have been improved for medical and the public (not solved), and testing capacity is way up now.
So while I would still criticize national, state and local officials for not actually using the science and data to enact more tailored policies, and I don’t think they used the time afforded by the lockdown completely effectively to reopen now, I do think that “tactical retreat” to buy time and knowledge was important.
one caveat is that this view probably greatly depends on where you live.
I’m with you, I don’t really understand the Sweden comparison. They have roughly the same population as Michigan with double the square miles. I also don’t understand the point of the thread. Sweden reopened their economy so it went up....? Isn’t that what usually happens? It’s like putting gas in your car and being surprised when the needle goes up on the gauge.
More surprising to me from the OP is how little Norway and Finland's economies shrank, given they they had formal government policies of closed businesses and WFH, etc.