Michigan Now -21.5 Pt Favorites v Sparty
Found it interesting that line moved from -25 early in the week down to -21.5 now. This despite the good news on Dax Hill midweek.
My guess is the big recent $ based on the historical rivalry, w assumption that despite having a shitty team - Sparty always gives Big Brother its strongest effort, and should be able to cover 3 TDs. Am I missing anything regarding other pregame news?
I am not gambling on this one - betting on the Wolverines has not been kind to me in past. But I hope we stick it up their asses and blow this line right out of the water.
Fuck Sparty - Go Blue!!!
October 30th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Mel Tucker made an effort to feign inherent disdain with the ‘school down the road’ or whatever.
Dantonio absolutely hated us. I respected that about him. That’s the only thing that I respect about him.
I see Mel Tucker being their Rich Rod w this rivalry
October 30th, 2020 at 6:02 PM ^
I’ll never respect a man that put the safety of young women at risk just so he could beat rich rod and hoke
October 30th, 2020 at 7:20 PM ^
He did say he "only" respected the fact that Dantonio hated Michigan (implying an inferiority complex on Dantonio's part). So I think you're on the same page.
October 30th, 2020 at 9:34 PM ^
Fair enough
October 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
Until the last two years, MSU had covered the spread against us every year (!) under Dantonio, and I think they did under John L. Smith a couple of times, too. So if you're a gambler who is into historical trends, you're probably thinking that spread was too high.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
By that logic, isn’t every spread too high?
October 30th, 2020 at 7:35 PM ^
Not your mom’s spread
October 30th, 2020 at 9:09 PM ^
He said too high, not too wide.
October 30th, 2020 at 7:54 PM ^
In the tradition of John LLLLLL...Smith, tomorrow begins a new one as we change Mel Tucker's first name to "MeLL", and by the end of the season it should stretch out at least to "MeLLLLLL"
October 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
Give me Michigan and the points. Eff this slow start talk. We're gonna hang 50, at least, on them.
Go Blue
October 31st, 2020 at 6:55 PM ^
Man the crystal balls on this site are so clear
October 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
On, no! Panic everyone!
Oh. Wait. Never mind.
October 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
agree on not betting on Michigan.
back when Lloyd's friend Debord took the CMU job Michigan opened up against them with something like a 38 point spread. I thought there was no way Carr would run it up on his good friend. So I decided to take the points, and of course Michigan won by 40+. That was a miserable game to watch and I have never bet for/against Michigan ever again.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:23 PM ^
I don't bet much, but I recall Lloyd rarely covering the spread. His playcalling was not conducive to humongous blowouts.
October 30th, 2020 at 7:35 PM ^
I actually think Carr had a winning record against the spread. I’ve tried to google it but can’t find any data that doesn’t take more work than it’s worth. Also if you google Lloyd Carr vs the spread too Many painful memories appear in the results.
October 31st, 2020 at 6:39 AM ^
I'm guessing that if you split Lloyd's career in half, his against the spread record would be much better in the first half of his career, just like his record against OSU and top 10/20 teams was much better in the first half.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
Was that the game that got postponed for weather for like 1.5 hours? I got way too drunk during those 5 hours.
October 30th, 2020 at 8:05 PM ^
I don't think we ever had a weather delay in the Carr era. I think the first was Brady Hoke's first game, against WMU?
October 30th, 2020 at 9:01 PM ^
2006 vs. CMU was a weather delay. I was one of the few crazy assholes who never left his seat.
October 30th, 2020 at 5:43 PM ^
I'm expecting a blowout. That team sucks as Dumbtonio just drove that program into the ground the last few years. They might be the worst team in the B1G. God, I hate that team
October 30th, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^
There was good news on Dax? I totally missed it. So he is well and will be starting Saturday?
October 30th, 2020 at 6:01 PM ^
Last I heard, harbaugh expected a "mid-week" return for him, i.e. last Wednesday.
October 30th, 2020 at 5:47 PM ^
I think, much like this blog’s brain trust, people realized MSU is just bad vs. horribly bad and that 7 turnovers is not likely to happen again.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
Even still, MSU was not as bad last year and Michigan probably not as good and M won by, what, 34 points? This was such a large swing (2 points just today) that I got this sinking feeling that there's some inside info sharps are betting on like they were when they knew what Minnesota was dealing with.
October 30th, 2020 at 5:50 PM ^
I have no fear going into this game, but I do think that the season will prove Rutgers to be somewhat approaching competency, and Minnesota to have an atrocious D. With a week of tape on Joe Milton and the new look offense, I think MSU manages to keep this semi-reasonable and a least avoid a total route.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:36 PM ^
Disagree. I think the Sunday newspapers the Spartan alums deliver on their paper route will confirm it was a total rout.
;)
October 30th, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
I bet/hope that that week of tape doesn't help them much. I don't think we showed much yet.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^
Hmm that’s concerning... we must be missing a player or two
October 30th, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
Not a great sign - I saw it go down to 23.5 (below 24) and a grabbed it. Then it kept going haha. Still hoping we beat them by 30.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^
Actually the average is about 22 and some sites have it 22.5. The original spread was 21, it went as high as 23.5, and it’s down a point. Not a big change by any means.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:29 PM ^
Yesterday it was 25, and this morning I watched it tick down to 23.5 (and then kept going).
October 30th, 2020 at 6:59 PM ^
I doubt it was ever 21. From the first time I saw it on FanDuel it was at 25.5
October 30th, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
Yeah I saw the 25.5 on fanduel as well, gave my coworker 24 points. Thought I got over but I guess not.
Of course last week I thought we were going to lose to Minnesota, 1 good game and im back in full home mode...oh well.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^
Makes me wonder if Michigan will have some starters not playing.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:37 PM ^
Yep. All of them. By the end of the 1st quarter.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
This equates to a 90 or 95% win probability for UM. The better team usually wins and UM is the much better team. Talent, scheme and coaching are clearly in UM’s favor. Home field and good weather. It could be a 10-50 point win by UM so 21 is a reasonable dividing line.
October 31st, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^
Really? How'd that work out for you?
October 30th, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^
Yeah this seems right. I dont think its a massive blow out, but its a comfy three score win. Or is that considered a massive blowout?
I kinda see a type of game like last year....7-7 late in first, then that's enough of that.
35-14 MEEEECHIGAN
October 30th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
Obviously, I am very scarred over what’s happened before in this rivalry, so I can’t really see this this with clear vision. I trust Seth’s analysis way more than my own, but I didn’t think MSU was anywhere near as terrible as people are talking. I mean, losing to Rutgers by two scores and turning the ball over 7 times is embarrassing and they should feel shame. But I think this game is closer than the blowouts people are predicting.
I would love to be wrong and hope I am. I think Michigan wins, but I think it ends up as a game that’s uncomfortably close.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:33 PM ^
So we destroy a better Minnesota team on the road then you think we play a close game against this garbage team?
October 30th, 2020 at 6:57 PM ^
I see what you're saying, but can we please (for this year) throw out the home vs away distinction? There really is NONE (aside from travel, and in this case, that travel ain't very far).
October 30th, 2020 at 7:12 PM ^
Good point. I think the Minn defense is worse than MSUs from what I saw, but we could have put 65 up against them if we needed to.
Minn offense is superior to MSUs in every way and our D played well.
I guess my only rebuttal is a feelingsball “hope we don’t overlook them” kinda thing.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:34 PM ^
If you watched MSU at all last year (and against Rutgers) you know they're pretty bad. This is not just one bad game. MSU was a poor team last year and lost some of their best players, particularly on D (Willekes, the LBs, etc). Rutgers will be a bit improved this year, but they still have bad players and although some of those turnovers were fluke-y, Rutgers made them clearly uncomfortable and when they needed to buckle down in the second half, they couldn't do it.
Minnesota isn't going to the Super Bowl or anything, but their offense is way better than MSU at every position and we did a great job against them. I still like taking Michigan with that spread.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:11 PM ^
Looking forward to watching the Rocky Horror Picture Show tomorrow. Go get em, Hutch.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:13 PM ^
You all watched our win against Minnesota and their game loss against, and I can't stress this enough, RUTGERS, right? We will win by 30+.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
October 30th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
Maybe it's because Nordin isn't ready yet.
October 30th, 2020 at 6:37 PM ^
I assumed the line would move to 30+. This is shocking. I'm calling 55-0
October 30th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
That is found money.