Michigan Monday Northwestern Edition is up
Michigan Monday is up but there's not a lot of insightful commentary. I thought this quote summed his take up pretty well:
"I realize there’s not a lot of effort or insight being put into this week’s Michigan Monday, but what the hell am I supposed to say. This game wasn’t pointless, but it was close. It was the game that had to be played before Michigan could begin the most important stretch of its season. It was a means to an end.
Besides, if Jim Harbaugh’s not going to go all out for Northwestern, why should I?"
https://buckeyescoop.com/michigan-monday-the-fun-and-games-are-over/
October 26th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
There's some meat for those that want to continue to gnaw on the Cade v JJ bone, but really, he did phone it in this week, as he acknowledges. Notably, he staying true to form and strikes a more serious than pandering tone.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
His "but this won't win The Game" should be troubling him more than he lets on. It isn't The Game. That's the point. We've played every game the way we needed to.
And, I'm pretty sure that this year has been ALL about The Game for us.
We have all these non-read reads that we're running. As if there are going to be reads eventually.
JJ has been getting work, sometimes odd work, as if he's prepping for something intentional.
We're trying to win the games, but we're not putting anything more than necessary on film. The one thing we're doing a much better job of in this regard is in-game adjustments that take advantage of what's being given without throwing in anything crazy.
Now, lil' brother is important. But I don't think we have to break much out for them. And if we can get our guards back, I think we can pave them. But if not, we might see actual reads appear. Or more JJ in split zone. Or less split zone with Cade.
But to this point, it feels like a team that is doing a dang good job winning, while practicing schemes for something else. And if I were "something else," I'd be a lot more concerned than Genderman. Especially if my team had NOT won all its games and has to worry now about winning in such a way as to sway voters. They should be afraid of the team that just has to win and seems a lot more in control.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
Absolutely. What gets me every week is the line of thought "this run game alone won't win The Game or [insert tough game]". Shouldn't it concern teams that we've made it through 7 games without a high profile passing offense and still run over every team but 1 basically? I know we haven't played a murderer's row or anything, but Ohio State fans are getting absolutely excited because they're torching terrible teams with their aerial offense. But do they ever stop and say "but can this offense hold up against a better defense?" Because it didn't versus the 1 "legit" team they faced (going by their own measure of what a legit team is).
I'm starting to wonder if we might actually beat MSU and Penn State with a simple pass offense and our dominant run game. Hell, we already played the toughest defense on the schedule, still ripped off 100 yards on the ground and torched them on the scoreboard with well timed pass plays (flea flicker ftw!). Obviously this week is a major test, but I think it's time to consider if it actually is possible to beat some of the best teams with a ball control, smash mouth run game and a defense that bends but doesn't break and now occasionally ball hawks from time to time. I mean, going 11-1 on the back of a strong ass ground game is actually kinda impressive in this day and age, right? I know the common retort is "but you won't beat Ohio State or win a game in the CFP" and I'm like, we were supposed to struggle to be bowl eligible this year. Who in the preseason had us pegged for 10-2 being a disappointment based on our expectations before the season started?
I think, as the you said, this team simply knows how to win and that means a lot, no matter how they choose to get it done.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
""but can this offense hold up against a better defense?" Because it didn't versus the 1 "legit" team they faced (going by their own measure of what a legit team is)."
Umm... they put up 600+ yards of offense on Oregon. The offense held up JUST FINE.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Yards vs Points. Yards are cute and all, but points is what matters. I don't care how many yards my defense gives up if they keep a team to field goals. Oregon played bend but don't break and and ran it down that defense's throat (seems familiar) and look how that played out. And if 600 yards is impressive, Oregon ran for over 250 yards on them, and had over 500 yards total. And we know how good (or not) Oregon seems to be.
If our defense can keep them out of the endzone (even if the offense moves up and down the field), you can still win.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
And scored 28 points. And lost. At home. They are scary as hell, but that's just the facts ..
October 26th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
Practicing the wrong thing all the time and expecting it to work when you want it is a recipe for disaster. I very much doubt that's the plan and am more convinced that he's just not making the reads or made up his mind before the snap, especially considering his passing.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
Wow, seven years and still you believe that there's somehow this greater plan? The team has shown time and again that they aren't holding something back. This is it. I hope I'm wrong and bring on the negs but I worry this year lines up like the previous.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
I came away with the same impression. The idea that halfway through a season they have gone full vanilla and saved some amazing playbook for later is a tale every fan tries to use to justify ho-hum performances. I have done it in the past. But there are 2 things wrong with this logic that I have found:
1. When you are in way-too-close games against inferior competition, the coaches would call any play at their disposal to try and win. They aren't thinking about November when in September/October you are battling to the end of the game with the likes of Rutgers and Nebraska.
2. Josh Gattis has been at the helm for a while now, the offense has always had deficiencies one way or the other...but now all of a sudden come November these kids are going to come out with a different playbook and be able to execute at a high level? That ends in disaster more often than not.
Are there specific plays they might not have put on tape? Sure....everyone keeps something back. But those plays are not an entire half of a playbook that all of a sudden is going to transform the offense into something it hasn't been all year. Ascending teams at the end of the year get there from incremental improvement, small tweaks to shore up issues, and kids executing. They don't get there because they are like, "Ok, time to open up this new playbook!"
October 26th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Two things.
1. Things are almost undeniably different this year, but deny away.
2. There are literally things that we do every week that have another piece attached that we're just not using.
This isn't just analysis by hopefulness. Maybe I'm not the one stuck in a response rut.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:39 PM ^
1. Yes things are different this year. But read through analysis and this website and you will see the concerns still persist. You are basically saying that Harbaugh is going to do something he has never done in his tenure at Michigan and pull a "FOOLED YOU!".
2. Your second point lines up with what I'm saying....incremental improvement. The way successful college football teams bring new wrinkles in is incremental. They do it in practice, it works, everyone does their job well. Then they implement it into a game, and if it works it becomes part of the playbook, if it doesn't it's tossed aside.
You are mistaken on what I'm saying. I'm not saying Michigan isn't different this year. I'm not even saying they are going to be the same offense in a month that they were a month ago...I'm saying Michigan isn't going to win these marquee games because they have some brand new shiny playbook they are going to whip out and magically morph the offense into something it's not.
I also think too much has been made on this site about the McNamara downfield passing. Yeah he's not lighting it up, but he isn't making mistakes. And so far they are having him do what he has to so they walk away with a W. These next few weeks are going to clear up what his limits are. If the offense gets down by a couple of scores, run the ball and eat clock won't cut it....that's when we see if Cade has it, if the WR group has it, and then more conclusions can be drawn.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
He's been flubbing open, well-schemed passing opportunities that could have led to points. It's like if the O-line opened up massive cutback lanes for Corum, more than once, and he missed them, turning sure twenty-five yard runs (and maybe touchdowns, provided successful jukes of the safety) into three yard gains. Corum actually has missed a cutback or two, particularly against Rutgers, but (way) more often than not he's making great plays. So that's the big deal with Cade's downfield woes --- sure points not taken.
The team's winning when he is in there though, so I guess there's not much to do. I'd prefer McCarthy at this point, but if Cade's in there, I hope he starts hitting those deep posts. We're going to need those points.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:15 PM ^
I see your point, but I think its also just the way JH coaches. This is sometimes to his detriment as well and I wish he wouldn't do it, but he obviously isn't going to change. I don't think its about "saving things" as much as it is, "this is what we need to do to win this game". If he thinks he can win by running the ball 99% of the time up the middle, that is what he is going to do. In his mind, that is working, so why even do anything else. I think he thinks that way more than, "this is working, so no need to run our super secret plays we are going to deploy against.....". Its sort of the same thing, but not really.,
October 26th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
There'd better be a lot more stuff in the playback because when we play the 3 land grant colleges remaining on our schedule and they pack the box to force us to throw downfield, what we're doing now ain't gonna cut it.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
The one game where we needed to throw and match the other team (NEB), we did. Cade also threw one pick but he definitely delivered on key throws. So, opening it up and throwing more is in the books but they are not going to do it unless needed. I understand concerns about live practice and repetition, but for some reason we take what is given to us. It may be a NFL strategy, but it is what it is. I sure hope Cade can deliver when needed, but I am convinced there will be more passing plays that we haven't seen, based on NEB game. How well we will execute? Let us hope Cade turns into Rudock of the second half.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^
There were two games in which we needed to throw: Wisconsin and Nebraska and we were successful both times.
I don't think people realize that we're taking what the defense gives us for the most part. If we can run it down their throats, why not? If they stack the box to stop that, we can throw (the exception was the Rutgers second half but that might have been a concussion-type thing cuz Cade lit them up in the first half).
October 26th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
I keep thinking that I must be reading it wrong, but every time I look at the Illinois vs Penn State box score, it says that Illinois passed for 38 yards and ran for 395 yards. Do you think they were holding back the pack the box strategy so that they could surprise us with it?
October 26th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
This actually made me laugh out loud.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
ToledoBlue, did you even consider that Harbaugh has been holding back and sticking conservative offensive game plans for the past 6 years just to mess with eventual coach Ryan Day's head? Has it crossed your mind that maybe he has been playing the long game and waiting to unleash a downfield passing attack, the likes of which has never been seen, in order to win The Game in year 7?
Seriously though, and despite the Rutgers game, the current coaching staff seems better prepared than previous iterations. I am tempted to hope that they have considered drawing up a useful game plan for the last regular season game of the year.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:15 PM ^
Thank you!!! I'm glad someone had the balls to say it. Every year I keep hearing this same narrative, "they are holding back the QB read for when they play OSU." Then it never materializes. I'd rather have a QB doing it all year and comfortable with it than have it be a "surprise" during one game, but I don't have to worry about that if history holds true. Harbaugh has no intention of running his QB and therefore the read option is useless for us.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^
I love this comment so much. I'd +100 if I could. As it be, +1 and a BIG LET'S GO BLUE!
This is the year.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
But to this point, it feels like a team that is doing a dang good job winning, while practicing schemes for something else.
The idea that Michigan is secretly planning some dramatic package of stuff that they'll suddenly unveil against Ohio State is an entertaining bit of fantasy that I've heard from Michigan fans for 50 years. It's never happened.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
But this time it's different! Where have I heard that one before?
October 26th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
I mean, it happened in 2013. That offense was night and day from what it had been throughout the season. Clearest example I've seen in 20 years (other than 2017) of the team looking wildly different (or at least better) than they did all season
October 26th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
I like Michigan Monday and find Gerdeman's analysis interesting and fun to read, but it is hilariously obvious how much more defensive and dismissive he becomes of Michigan when the team is actually doing well.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
So true. Evolution of Gerdeman during a good Michigan season:
Games 1-2: Hey, a strong Michigan is great for the buckeyes!
Games 3-4: Yup, doing great, keep it up
Games 5-7: Sure, they're winning, but they have a few issues they need to fix before facing off with osu.
Games 8-the end: Sure, they're winning, but they're a deeply flawed team. Their coaches are flawed, their QB is flawed, their defense if flawed. They're too flawed to win The Game.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
this isn't too different from how many in our fanbase approach the season.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
You forgot "But they haven't played anyone yet."
I guess he used a variation of that with the "most important part of the schedule" coming.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^
Unfortunately the scores of the UM-OSU games have shown his analysis was correct
October 26th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
DAMN! The truth cuts deep sometimes.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
Do you really think he is worried about Michigan? Really? Come on. I live in Ohio and NOBODY is worried about Michigan. And guess what, they shouldn't be. Untill wins actually start happening, which it won't this year, they have no reason to be concerned
October 26th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
I thought jersey sales in Ohio were the indicator of success
October 26th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
You are correct, Mr. Medication. Nobody saw it coming.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
I live here as well, and concur. Most are more worried about bookings for Dec 4th in Indy than any team left on their schedule.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
I've been telling myself that the MSU game is when we open up the passing game. I hope I'm not giving the coaching staff too much credit there.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
That can come back to bite us in the butt. If Cade isn't making accurate throws, the passing game will kill us. I would love to see well-timed play calls for the passing game, that was set up by the running game. I thought the staff did a great job of this against Wisconsin and thankfully Cade was on that day.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Yep, this game will be over quick if "UM opens up the passing game" and throws it all over the place to no success in the beginning. They will turtle back to the run game immediately and MSU can stack the box hard. They need the passing game to be efficient enough to back off the safeties and LBs a bit. If they can do that, they should win with HH and BC. If they can't complete open passes or even some contested ones, the running game is in trouble.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
I think the have opened up as much as they can. Cade's physical limitations cut out a lot what you probably want to do and they obviously don't trust JJ to handle the whole thing mentally yet.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
I dont know how much more Open they can get? If anything Cade is now reading the plays and progressing as a passer. The accuracy should come along as well as he gets more confident in his throws. The more mid range attacks he hits (by checking down) the more the long range passes should open up. He has shown he can hit guys in stride, its just taking that next step.
JJ is a wildcard and a dynamic playmaker. His ceiling is much higher, but right now his floor is lower. I say that only because his playmaking can backfire fast. He's got "it" and I think with more time and training he will be the best QB we have ever had.
I base my views on MMQB with Sam and DG and what I see.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
That's the way I felt about Saturday. A free pass to the rest of the season. I had no expectations entering this season, but having watched MSU early on, I told my MSU-grad wife that when these two schools meet on Halloween weekend, they would both likely be undefeated, but in particular, the Sparties because their season just lined up for an unblemished record after they knocked off Miami in Coral Gables.
Against Northwestern, I just felt Michigan put in solid effort but the gameplan seemed vanilla at best, few attempts to get downfield in chunk plays, attack the perimeter or go over the top. Perhaps it was by design or perhaps it was just the way things went. In either case, it seemed to me Michigan was withholding by choice for its meeting with its in-state rival. We shall see. Go blue!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
yeah, but it was the perfect tune up game for a big game. We had what felt like 2 big games in a row, irrespective of records (@Wisky and @Neb)... we needed the bye to settle and a NU or Maryland type game to get bodies moving again.
I like NU even more ahead because they play a similar style to MSU in terms of how physical and mauling they tend to be... MSU finishes tackles 3 minutes after the play. Our guys better be ready for that physical nature to the game. They will probably have at least 2-3 plays we consider dirty and given that its @msu, expect them not to get targeting.
Keep Cade protected and run them over. Zinter - nows the time!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We all know UM is a good, albeit not elite team because they lack an explosive passing game and don't have great corners. They will be favored in all their remaining games minus maybe PSU which is a toss up game, but will still get killed by OSU and other elite teams like Bama & UGA because they can't score enough points to stay in it and no one shuts down those offenses. That's who we are. We got it. We'll happily take our 10 wins, our OSU beating, and call it a rebuilding year with hope for the future with another new highly recruited QB. But, at some point JH has to figure out a way to get competitive with OSU again or live with the constant frustrations of the fanbase & media pundits not doing so.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
My take exactly. We are rebuilding with a Freshman QB and years of being consistently beaten on the recruiting trail.
But with 10 wins this year, if McCarthy can help us stretch the field next year and our offense can take the next step, it should help us take our recruiting to another level.
I like the reboot and new trajectory of the football program.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
If we get killed by OSU, we aren’t playing Georgia or Bama. There’s a decent chance this team goes 11-2. That’s not a rebuilding year.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
FWIW they've noticed us. I think like a lot of fans right here on this very site though they are waiting to see what happens Saturday before deciding if they should actually start to worry a little bit.
If we, sorry. WHEN we win this Saturday watch the tone of "Michigan Monday" start to really shift. To date the one thing they've struggled with, stopping the run, is the one thing we absolutely kick ass at doing. And they know it.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
Osu is tough to predict right now for me because since the Oregon game they have not played a team with a winning record until they play penn state Saturday night.
Against Penn states defense we will get an idea of what they are capable of. However, with pj mustipher out it is clear he will be missed in run defense. Illinois took advantage and crapped all over them.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
I agree with this take. No doubt OSU looks like a strong team but they have not yet beat a strong team (schedule mostly not their fault). However, being up 28-0 to a weak team at the end of the first quarter is also a byproduct of their game plan and style of offense which is much different than ours. Not downplaying OSU by any means - it is just still tough to tell how good they are. But we know they’re good.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
So the tone is going to shift to concern?
Last time for that was 2016.
UM should beat MSU consistently based on the talent differential, yet......
This coaching staff is not instilling fear in our opposition.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
That changes the more we win
October 26th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
MSU can have the worst record or worst talent, but I can assure you that this game will always be an unknown. You are not going to instill fear in a rivalry game.