Michigan Football Confessions: I Was Wrong

Submitted by jaydubya on

So, I need to come clean.

Before the season began, I was extremely optimistic - and in hindsight, delusionally so - about Michigan football this year.  In particular, there was a thread in which Michigan's record going into the Michigan State game was discussed.  Looking at the schedule, as well as Michigan's talent, I was adamant that Michigan would be 6-1, at worst, going into this week.  

I was so adamant, in fact, that I ripped on a few pessimistic posters who had the audacity to suggest that Michigan could be 3-4.  In my mind, their negativity regarding the state of the program was appalling.  I mean, seriously, 3-4 ... with that schedule!?

Well ... obviously, I was wrong - so very, very wrong.  My optimism was misguided.  And for that, I would like to come clean to the other MGoPosters here, particularly those who suffered my delusional denigrations.  You were right, and your skepticism was justified.

Friends again?

 

NorthSideBlueFan

October 20th, 2014 at 8:41 PM ^

God bless the optimism, but I dare to say if they do win it would be one of the biggest upsets in program history as I can't remember many times in the last 50 or so years where they beat a team being more than a two td dog.

Bo vs osu being the obvious outlier that comes to mind.

Lucky Socks

October 20th, 2014 at 3:41 PM ^

Don't apologize for being optimistic.  What happened, happened.  While everyone else was already miserable during August, you were pretty happy.  Now we all accept the reality.

The reality that we're going to pull off an upset on Saturday and things will go back to pre-2006 normal!

Go Blue.

maize-blue

October 20th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^

I predicted 6-1 or 7-0 going into the MSU game and overall 10-2 with worst case scenario 9-3. I thought the passing game was going to be lights out. I was pretty sure that 2013 was a down and/or building year and this season we'd see everything turn around. Instead, everything got worse.

Vengeful Barbarian

October 20th, 2014 at 6:25 PM ^

The problem is you can't judge a schedule before the season is played. What looks like an easy opponent before the season begins might actually be a pretty darn tough opponent by the end of the season. I'm sure none of us thought Minnesota or Utah would be very tough but they are 6-1 and 5-1 so far and headed to a much better season than what most of us thought. 

late night BTB

October 21st, 2014 at 9:57 AM ^

I want to live in your world. How could a bad O line that loses 2 NFL tackles, one a top 15 pick and the other a 3rd rounder, get better?

Predicted 5 wins. Looks about right, if not a bit lofty.

This reminds me of people telling me that Mike Hart would be an NFL 1st rounder and a star. Get real. 

DMill2782

October 20th, 2014 at 3:45 PM ^

I predicted Michigan to go 7-5 this year. I thought that was pessimistic, but I had major concerns with the o-line as well as concerns with the secondary. Turns out I was being optimistic with guessing a winning record.

alum96

October 20th, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^

I dont think anyone imagned the season being over in week 5.  I am a lot more EMO than most around here and even I thought 8-4 with the OL getting better in the 2nd half of the year.  3 losses to the rivals and then 1 head scratching loss elsewhere was my view - even the good 90s teams often had 3-4 losses so I was unclear why people thought this was a 10-2 team or better.

With all the ND suspensions, I did think that looked winnable however as we got close to the game but thought it was 50/50.   I did however say all winter the Utah game would go a long way to determining the course of the season as the difference between 3-1 and 2-2 is huge and it was the type of team most fans would overlook but is good enough to beat ok teams on the road.  Any team that beat Stanford on any field - road or home - is one that UM might not match up with.  Never expected to lose to Minnesota though preseason.

My biggest caveat outside of the OL coming into the year was a lack of progression seen by Devin in the spring game, and then the scrimmage.  He looked like the same guy as last year.  Unfortunately he has even regressed more to the point we are completely missing a few of those Vince Young Jr games he had in 2013 (OSU, ND, Indiana).  I did not expect that, i thought he'd be a major variance player who has some big games and some bad ones like last year but his trend would be a bit better.   Its the most important position in the sport and on a team with 3/4 upperclassmen starting Devin needed to be very good - like JT Barrett good.  Great heart with Devin but you need your 5th year senior to be a stud.  I also thought we'd have a competent backup in Shane if Devin did not improve - not a world beater but a guy who could be like the 6th best QB in a bad league of QBs....  it's almost amazing to see how bad Shane and Russ B are when a guy like Appleby shows up at Purdue and is outplaying them by miles.

I think overlooked in the Hoke focus is we might have some of the worst position coaches in the Big 10 - I know they have defenders here but Funk, Jackson and Mallory - the latter of which is never spoken about, are below average IMO.  Mallory coached the entire secondary last year and it was horrid.  This year he is doing the safeties and they are the worst unit by a long shot.  Yet everyone focuses on Manning who at least is developing Lewis.  

My opinion is position coaching is the most overlooked part of a team and we are severely lacking in multiple spots.   Even if the HC is a CEO type who is disengaged excellent position coaching can make up for it to a degree.

doughboy

October 20th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^

Unless we run the table and win a Bowl game I owe my father-in-law $5.00.  He said Michigan would be lucky to win 7 games - I responded with at least 9 W's and thus the gauntlet was thrown down.

WolverineHistorian

October 20th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^

This board was scared to death after seeing how awful the offensive line looked in that night scrimmage in August and then everyone was jacked after we beat App State. I think 95% of the posters here predicted us to win big in South Bend.

Don't be so hard on yourself. You're certainly not the only guilty party in this area.

carlos spicywiener

October 20th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^

i was predicting either 9 or 10 wins. What has transpired this season is utterly pathetic, and the blame lies squarely with the coaching staff. This team is way too talented to have a losing record.

MaximusBlue

October 20th, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^

My optimism was so sky high going into the season that I thought we would be undefeated heading into this week. I realized I was terribly wrong in the second quarter of the ND game.

Real Tackles Wear 77

October 20th, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^

I think the only ones who would have predicted us to be 3-4 right now are those who were being irrationally pessimistic. With the talent and depth on that roster, we SHOULD be much better than that. It hasn't all panned out, and there have been coaching issues, injuries and many other factors...so here we are. Let's hope it gets way better.

bigfan2959

October 20th, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^

No, 3-4 was actually fairly easy to see, I only missed that we lost to Minnesota and I thought we would lose to Penn St. Only exceptionally optimistic fans would see our poor offensive line and think we could lose a 1st round left tackle but we would be better, and what about Hoke’s record would make anyone think he could go on the road and win at Rutgers, much less Notre Dame.  Utah beat Stanford and plays in a better conference then us so I figured that was a loss. 

After the train wreck that was the bowl, a true pounding at the hands of a mediocre team, I had no faith that the OSU game was anything more than the one great game aberration that happens most years in college football. Every team has one great game per season in them where they play over their heads.  You never know when your team is going to have it, but it’s often in rivalry games against a much better opponent.

 

MonkeyMan

October 20th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

Hello Jaydubya- welcome to the meeting.

Please sit down.

I think one ofthe first things we have to recognize is that we are all recovering here- so confessions are a natural place to begin.

It is part of our sickness that we think we should win all the time. This sickness leads to some real stinkin' thinkin' about how we control the world when actually it is the addiction of winning which controls us. 

In time, through meetings like this, we learn that there is a greater power which we all have to learn to trust.....

would anybody care to share their recent experience?

ThadMattasagoblin

October 20th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

I'm optimistic every off season and I'm not apologizing. Sometimes being optimistic is being realistic. Eventually all of those people who say Michigan won't be good will become non realistic and pessimistic. Granted I've been non realistic for 7 years now besides 2011.

Muttley

October 20th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^

(50% if it was Morris).

Holy hell, these depths were unfathomable.  My non-Apocalypse worst case was a return to last year's approximate level, losing to ND/MSU/OSU and maybe dropping one or two frustrating heartbreakers against middle-of-the-pack teams.

But getting smoked by Minny at home?  ESPN has us ranked as the 11th of 14 in ESPN's B1G  teams.

I did not see this coming.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/109380/big-ten-power-rankings-…

 

westwardwolverine

October 20th, 2014 at 4:06 PM ^

I was an 8-4 floor to 11-1 ceiling guy. 

I thought our defense would be awesome. Right up there with MSU from last year. 

I was worried about the OLine, but thought if they could just be a little better than last year (and they have been as a whole), the offense's skill players would take over. Not to mention going from Borges to Nussmeier seemed like a huge upgrade. Also, I thought Devin would be more Ohio State 2013 and less UConn 2013 this year. 

And then of course, Notre Dame loses a bunch of guys and Braxton Miller gets hurt and suddenly it seemed like two of the three rivals were vulnerable...I mean, there were genuine reasons to be optimistic. 

But Brady Hoke and staff (+Devin Gardner just losing the plot almost completely) took little time in destroying that. 

So here we are.