Men’s Hoops… how are they changing? Will they Dance?
This has been a dynamic season for the men’s hoops team. A number of perspectives have been shared in other threads. The conference season is winding down - the home finale is ,against Wisconsin this weekend, followed by two on the road at Illinois and Indiana.
They are fighting for BTT seeding, and the Dance.
The team has dealt with injuries and experience - with a fair amount of youth on the roster - but, certainly seems to have grown and developed.
Dug has stepped up his game in the last few weeks, and Reed’s emerging as well. Ball protection and turnovers seems to be improving - certainly with Dug.
Two bigs on the floor with Hunter and Reed seems to have better chemistry than Hunter and Moussa last year.
I’m hoping they continue to elevate their game - protect home court, and take a strong game on the road next week, and to Chicago for the BTT.
What do you think the biggest changes in the team are - and what the keys are for them to make the Dance?
February 24th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
I think if they win 2 of the last 3 they should atleast get a play in game. That would put them 12-8 in conference and 7-3 in their last 10 games.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Secret sauce. They're putting it on everything now!
February 24th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Sauce Costello!
February 24th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
I think it all comes down to @Indiana (after beating Wisc but losing to Illinois). I wouldn't put actual money on it, but I do think they can pull it out.
I don't know if you can point to anything that has "changed" - maybe just luck and sample size starting to go their way. Dylan on his podcast had an excellent point - if you spliced the end of the game shots (not the result) vs. Indiana and vs. MSU, which would look "better"?
I would like to see Juwann stop tinkering so much with the rotations. This is do or die time, and he should really be considering rolling out the Dickinson / Reed combo more often. We've seen now the past two games how successful it's been.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
"I would like to see Juwann [sic] stop tinkering so much with the rotations." So you want one of the reasons the team has started to finish games to stop?
Besides the fact that he's had to shift rotations for injuries (Jett and Terry), he's also started to find pretty good offense/defense combos with the second team rotation players. Clearly, Cheddar, Tarris, and Baker are the three guys to rotate in the game, with Terry hopefully returning to that 6th man role. Cheddar starting allows for Reed to come in and rotate the three "bigs."
Rotating combos of Tarris and Cheddar, Hunter and Tarris, or Hunter and Cheddar has given them their best rebounding and defense. Cheddar's inclusion in the lineup (besides showing in the plus/minus boxscore) adds a level of energy that has upped the team's going for 50/50 balls and hustling on D.
Dug and Kobe are growing in the backcourt, not pressing as much, not forcing shots--and not losing confidence when they miss. They're much more patient with taking turns trying to drive the lane or screen off the perimeter. Dug's showing the same kind of pick and pop game that was in his HS tape. He seems much more confident in how to get off his shot cleanly and unconsciously off the screens.
It helps to have a coach like Howard, who is a steady ship when it comes to understanding the ebb and flow. Him and the staff have kept the team confident despite their challenges this year.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
Cheddar was a -5 last night (the only other negative was Jace at -1). This is now multiple games where he's been in the negative +/- and yet he got 18 minutes to Tarris' 13 minutes. I guess when I say tinker - I should clarify that those two numbers should be flipped moving forward. Reed got the last 5 or so minutes last night, with Cheddar getting very little end of game time (twice in a row now) - why can't that happen earlier in the game?
February 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
I was watching the clock and 10 minutes into the game Reed still hadnt played. Howard seems to have a blind spot with Reed. Really without injuries he may still be a complete unknown. Im glad he played Reed at the end but he needs more minutes. I dont really understand Cheddar getting minutes. Joey Baker is a far better shooter and Reed does everything better outside of shooting.
Big Reed minutes and sharp shooting from Baker are the key to this team becoming dangerous.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Don't know that I agree with the Reed blind spot; it feels like the normal rotation for him at this point is to come in for Dickinson at the first Dickinson break (normally U12 media timeout), and then Howard will leave Reed in with Dickinson for a few minutes after Dickinson returns (normally U8 media timeout) and see how that goes. He does this in both halves.
The thing with Reed is that he can seem like a completely different player in each half (i.e. first half against MSU was nearly unplayable, was maybe the best player on the floor in 2nd half). Similarly here, I don't think he was terribly great in the first half, but had some huge defensive stops in the 2nd half.
My guess with Cheese is that he's got a better idea for the flow of the offense than Reed given the extra year there, he theoretically has an outside shot, and most of the practice time with the team is not spent with the 2-big lineup, so it doesn't make sense to play Reed as much as you would a "normal" 4. Especially last night, T-Will is coming back from an injury and Jett is out, so your hand is kind of forced with having to play some players that probably aren't ideal (i.e. Cheese).
Regardless, I really loved how aggressive Joey was last night; I know they didn't go in at a great rate, but that guy just needs to shoot the ball. If we win one of two next week, I have a feeling it's cause he goes 3/6 or 4/7 from three.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
Honestly, Williams plays better coming off the bench too. I think given the injury to Jett, last night's rotations were pretty perfect. I wouldnt mind Jett seeing a little less PT moving forward in favor of a few stretches with Hunter/Tarris/Williams all on the floor. Jett's defense has been abysmal all year, while Tarris has been a difference maker on D and Williams has shown decent defense and good energy when he's coming off the bench.
I know that takes some shooters off the floor, but for a few stretches run the offense through Hunter in the high post/top of key. He's shown he can knock down threes if they try to go zone or heavy help against this size lineup.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Who is Terry? Excited to watch this guy play.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Terrance Williams III
Twill to most...
February 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Terry BROADNAX Jr.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
I think the concern with the two-big lineup is that we have no third big. If Reed gets in foul trouble (which happens often) then we’ve got problems. So Juwan waits to the home stretch to roll it out.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
They were always 2 or 3 bone-headed mistakes away from winning those single digit games they lost.
They stopped making those bone-headed mistakes.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Do I dare say that these kids are being coached effectively and collectively improving their games?
You know what's funny - go back and read the Rutgers (or MSU) game threads where multiple posters declare our season and program dead within the first 5 minutes of the game. This team has been frustratingly inconsistent (which I blame almost entirely on youth at core positions), but they have shown resiliency and growth.
Go Blue.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
you mean the same morons who declare the season dead every year after 15 seconds of the opening exhibition game. I exaggerate but yes there are morons and they know who they are. People treat basketball season like football season and i dont think they understand how the 2 sports work differently. But every season since 2010 we go through the same thing over and over
February 24th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
The same who tweet and post here during football season and cry the season is over when the team punts on the first drive of games against teams like Hawaii or Connecticut.
I don't get why anyone would watch a sport when they're so manically pessimistic.
February 24th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
The problem is they don’t know who they are, and they do it all the time. They think they're just being realistic and everyone else is "pie in the sky." They get a kick out of pessimism and being able to say they called it when we lose, then are pleasantly surprised if we win but everyone is happy so nobody calls them out.
February 24th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Or the people who unironically call for Juwan Howard's job at the drop of a hat. They clearly don't remember some of Michigan's teams under Beilein which started off okay, slumped in the middle, then caught fire in Feb/Mar and went on deep psot-season runs.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
This hasn't been a sparkling coaching run by Howard by any means; their defensive lapses and rebounding issues have persisted even last night for stretches. But absolutely they're getting better and I generally just tune out the people around here who go super-negative because it has to be miserable watching college kids play a sport and be mad throughout. I have notices that a couple of the usual suspects have been quieter recently, and are probably a bit lucky this site lacks a reasonable way to search old posts for some genuine Cold Takes Exposed discussion.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
• "yes there are morons and they know who they are" (RXwolverine)
• "why anyone would watch a sport when they're so manically pessimistic." (Breakneck Blue)
• "it has to be miserable watching college kids play a sport and be mad throughout" (BronxBlue)
It seems to me that the morons do NOT know who they are, and that they don't consider themselves miserable or pessimistic.
Instead their comments suggest they consider themselves smarter than the rest of us. To call someone an asshole or downvote out of habit buttresses a sense of superiority. So they're probably happy in their bubble of smug condescension and bile.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Rhymes with TheTube
February 24th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
Rhymes better with Pube
February 24th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Naked Bootlegger: "being coached effectively and collectively improving their games" and "they they have shown resiliency and growth."
Yes!
I felt foolish, naive earlier in the season commenting that I looked forward to the development of this young team.
To be fair, I expected most of the development to pay off next year, rather than this year.
But, wow, a first-year big who's valuable?! A first-year point guard with only few turnovers in 2 games against teams touting their defense and take-aways?!
Yes!
February 24th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
they need to win 2 of the next 4 games either 2 regular season or 1 regular season and 1 BTT game and they should be in.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
No way that is enough.
They need to get to 19 wins minimum just to make a playin game. 20 wins to be safely in the actual tournament.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
They made it last season with only 17 wins
February 24th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Last year we had a win over Purdue and no losses as bad as CMU. This year we’ll need 19 wins.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
The conference and its strength, depth, etc. change from year to year. As does Michigan. Michigan also had nowhere close to as bad a win on its resume last year as it does this year with CMU.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Yeah, one of these last three will not do it. If that is the case they need to win the BTT.
The BIG was better last year and they did not have an anchor loss.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Seems like the biggest difference to me is they're playing reasonable defense (besides pick and roll with Hunter which is still a problem). Dug, Kobe and Tarris especially have been great.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
It still amazes me (honestly it shouldn't at this point) how often Dickinson gets beat off the dribble and lets guys he has about 8-12 inches on get layups up on him.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^
The 2nd half defensive effort was tremendous last night. The energy level was definitely elevated. You could feel their defensive attitude.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
I think we need to win 3 more games, no matter how that happens. We win the next 3 and I think we get in no matter the results in the BTT. We would likely have 5-6 quad 1 wins at that point which should be enough to at least get us in the play in game. If we go 2-1 to close out, I think we need to win our first game in the BTT, likely against a team like Wisconsin/Iowa/Illinois. If we go 1-2 to close out, we are more than likely in the 8/9 match and would need to win that, and then have a date with Purdue to potentially punch our ticket.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
Win the next 3 and they're probably going to be in second place in the B1G. Tied with 3 teams, 2 of which they still play and we're including wins over them. That puts them below us. Then you have Maryland who is also tied. They could run the table as well but tough games against NW and @PSU. NW is the wildcard. They're a game ahead of us. We'd need them to win @Maryland and then lose to PSU or @Rutgers. I don't think this is out of the question. But, we need to take care of business. Like you say, win out and they're in.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
They have to be able to stop the in-game bleeding when a team goes on a run. They also have to work harder to get Hunter and Bufkin shots in those situations and end of game clutch situations.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
Sadly, that CMU loss and the B1G being in a down year may be too much to overcome.
One possible bright side of making the NIT, they could make a deep run and get much more practice/experience than a 1 and done in the NCAA.
Just trying to see the glass half full.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
The CMU loss is bad but also that's pretty standard for teams fighting to make the tournament. If you look at the other common 4 seeds per Bracket Matrix (WVU, Ok St, Memphis, Wisconsin, USC, and Miss St.) they all have huge dents in their resumes.
- WVU is only 8-12 in Quad 1 & 2 games (UM is 8-11).
- Ok St has lost 3 in a row and are 7-11 in Quad 1 & 2 games, and played a really weak OOC schedule and are 7-8 in conference.
- Miss. St. is 6-9 in those top quad games, are 6-9 in a mediocre SEC and played a super-easy OOC slate.
- USC is 2-5 vs. Q1 teams (and 6-1 vs. Q2) but also have a Q3 AND Q4 loss. They have also played a ton of mediocre teams, with 12 of their 20 wins coming from Q3 and Q4 games (UM, by comparison, only has 8 out of 9 opportunities).
- Wisconsin is so very Wisconsin; 8-9 in conference and a perfect 10-10 in Q1 and Q2 games. They've got a chance to pick up a huge win vs. Purdue but they also have a closing game @Minnesota so there's a non-zero chance they could slip up.
- Memphis is 9-6 in Q1&2 games and played a tough OOC slate and probably have the best argument to be off the line.
So yeah, Michigan is basically 2 wins away from being a 10 seed right now (flip CMU and Iowa to wins and Torvik had them as a fringe 10/11 seed) but they have a solid resume and if they can close with a 2-1 run they absolutely will be on the bubble heading to the BTT.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
Too early to talk about the NIT. We have a legit shot at the tourney still. Beat Wisconsin, steal one of Illinois/Indiana, and win a game in the BTT and I think we get in. That’s not a simple task, but who expected us to win in Columbus last year without Hunter?
February 24th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
it's worth noting that MattEM's post earlier this week detailed the plays that the team is running. i have a whole new respect for juwan and what he's trying to do. his 'playbook' is just fine, the kids have to get it in gear and start running it. they are much less complicated than football plays and much less numerous, so it's on the kids to get them down and run them. i'd say that is now happening.
add reed getting more time, dug hitting his shots, tiny improvement by baker and maybe t-will, and maybe we have something. if hunter can get his head consistently in the game we should be a pretty tough out.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I think it was more expectations that were misplaced as opposed to the performance of the team. They lost their entire starting lineup from last year except for Hunter and nearly all of their bench production as well. I don't think the preseason expectations for the team were particularly reasonable, myself included.
I think they are going to make the tournament, barely. They will probably be in the First Four. The only potential issue I see is it taking a while to reintegrate Jett into the lineup. I would very much like to see him play against Wisconsin. It will be difficult for the team to adjust if he comes back only for the last road stretch.
I also think this is a team that could win the BTT, so that is a wildcard as well.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
We’re on the radar now at Bubble Watch where pre Rutgers we weren’t. Need to just go 1-0 every day like the team is preaching. Beat Wisconsin will get more views and think we would be close to First Four Out status. Then we need to do what we can do in the final week of the season on the road.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Every year Juwan's teams are playing their best ball at the end of the season. That seems like an obvious thing but every year we see teams that crush early then fall apart as the season continues whereas Juwan's teams are frantically up & down early in the year but build to their best by the end of the season.
My uneducated theory is that Juwan comes from NBA asst coaching where the role is to be that day to day teacher helping players incrementally improve so that they are their best by the playoffs. It seems to me that this is what happens each season on a larger level as head coach
February 24th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
I agree, but he really needs to focus on rotations. He seems to be a really good teacher, these teams are developing, but his rotations have lost 2 or 3 games alone this season. This team did not have to be on the bubble.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
I think it’s more that he runs a fairly complicated NBA-style system and it takes time for players to acclimate themselves to it. That’s an issue when you have a lot of roster turnover, like we have the last two years. But there is a payoff in the end - we run better sets than most other teams and when our guys know what to do out there, the game gets a lot easier for them.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Biggest change is guys are more experienced. They've played. The staff can coach them up in practice but it takes live-fire ball to learn how to play. Still plenty of room to grow, but it's encouraging to see more light bulbs going on.
Keep improving, keep up the effort level, get a few breaks and this team -- though flawed -- can still go places.
February 24th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Unfortunately I think they come up short. Losses at UI and IU is my prediction. Win one and then lose one in the BTT and we are done.
Loved the development of Dug and Kobe along with Reed. Hunter and Jett can bolt if they want, hope Kobe stays one more year. Not the year anyone wanted and man does that CMU loss sting along with the collapse against IU. Oh well, get better next year.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Addition by subtraction. I think Jett's absence is helping the team. There has been a decided shift to defense since his injury.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
I would like to add that for all the talk about the Big 10 being down, they're second to Sagarin and Nolan/NET and 3rd per RealTimeRPI. The Big 12 is far-and-away the best conference but after that it's basically a dog-fight between the Big 10 and the SEC for second so the conference getting 8-9 teams in isn't crazy. And if UM does finish 11-9/12-8 it would be hard to see them at least not be in the conversation especially if other teams fighting for bids are .500 or worse in worse conferences.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
I don’t think much has changed. They had a good win vs Northwestern, who I think is a favorable matchup. They beat bad OSU and Nebraska and a Rutgers team that is struggling recently. MSU was a good win but they are not a great team. I hope they win out, but there is definitely some recency bias over the last two games. Remember they had a bad loss to Wisconsin a week ago. I don’t think they played particularly well last night and it would have been a close game if Rutgers didn’t shoot an unbelievably low FT%. It is possible there has been some drastic change the last two games, but I think it is more a byproduct of the competition.