Not to undermine Butterfield (LINK) who's numbers appear both impeccable and comforting but some hack named Nate Silver published an article for the New York Times (tumblr site?) giving Michigan a somewhat, err, dimished likelihood of winning the NCAA tournament. Via UMHoops (LINK):
Michigan (up to 3.8 percent from 2.5 percent) Michigan could easily enough have been a No. 1 seed had it played better down the stretch, and it was probably underseeded as a No. 4 even with the losses that it took. In general, however, we’ve found that late-season performance doesn’t tell you that much more than early-season performance when it comes to tournament play – and Michigan’s slump has not extended into the postseason. It was a break for the Wolverines to play in Auburn Hills, Mich., but their domination of a tough Virginia Commonwealth team on Saturday was nevertheless impressive, and they should be thought of as the equivalent of a strong No. 2 seed right now.
It is worth noting that if the 3.8% continues to increase it will someday reach 81.45% and all will be right with the world.