FSU Primer (Snack Version)
I just thought I'd put together some content for the board while sitting here doing nothing. Florida State is a 9-3 team, but what do we really know about them? I know I don't know much so I started searching around for some information. So they are the #9 team according to S&P+, with the offense #6, defense #18, and special teams #85. For comparable teams statistically, think a slightly upgraded Ohio State offense (12), a slightly downgraded Iowa defense (12), and special teams like Indiana (98).
Digging deeper into the defensive stats, they defend the run and pass about the same - (31) and (25) respectively. Their big weakness is on passing downs (plays where the offense needs 8 or more yards) which they rank (50) at. They have 14 interceptions, 8 of those coming from Tavarus McFadden. Michigan had 12 interceptions this year FWIW. Pressure will come from Demarcus Walker who has recorded 15 sacks so far.
Their offense is very efficient, performing well on both rushing (6) and passing (21). Rushing is obvious because Dalvin Cook. Cook has recorded over 2000 yards from scrimmage between passing and rushing so far. Travis Rudolph is their leading reciever with 807 yards averaging 15.2 YPC. They have a lot of recievers who have recorded between 300-400 yards for the season. The QB, Deondre Francois is completing 60.6% of his passes averaging 8.4 yards while recording 18 TDs and 6 INTs.
So who have they beaten this year? Really their three best wins are Ole Miss the first game of the year, Florida the last game of the year, and Miami in the middle of the year. They beat Ole Miss by 11 points, Florida by 18, and Miami by 1. They also had a squeaker with NC State, but who didn't this year?
Who have they lost two this year? Louisville won by 43, North Carolina by 2, and Clemson by 3. Other than Louisville, they haven't been blown out in their losses. They are a couple plays away from having a much better record, so there is that.
Not exactly diary level material, just some information for the board.
December 5th, 2016 at 1:03 AM ^
"Pressure will come from Demarcus Walker who has recorded 15 sacks so far. "
I believe this is best in CFB this year.
December 5th, 2016 at 2:33 AM ^
Bet FSU will insert him across Kalis who is prone to whiff when DL cross across his face.
December 5th, 2016 at 1:20 AM ^
There is plenty of speed and athleticism on their defense, and our OL is hardly a position of dominance. Cook has the ability to break off big chunks if he gets a hole. Their OL has had its issues as well, so our DL has its own opportunities.
They're two close losses away from being in the playoffs, just like us.
December 5th, 2016 at 1:40 AM ^
leading to a Jimbo Fisher tirade that cost him $20,000. They could have beaten Clemson.
Similar situation to Harbaugh's fine and the OSU loss.
December 5th, 2016 at 6:47 AM ^
Twice as bad as Harbaugh's fine... Jimbo must have really lit up those refs!
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December 5th, 2016 at 7:56 AM ^
I'd say that Jimbo was at least twice as rough on the refs as Harbaugh. Check out approx. 2:12 to 4:20, and then just before the end.
Choice quotes include "it was all rah rah rah, zip boom bah" (in the 2:12 portion) and, at the end, something along the lines of (referencing the ref who threw an unsportsmanlike conduct flag at a sideline player after blowing a call) "well, I hope everyone told us his name on TV - everyone was there to see him, apparently".
I'll be curious how the officiating is in Miami:
December 5th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^
I watched the game, and saw the play/penalty that negated the big FSU run. Kimbo went OFF. I can't stand him most of the time, but he had a legit beef with the refs in this game. Shame too, becasue we could've used that Clemson loss. Oh well, time to beat FSU in the "Victims of Poor Officiating Bowl".
December 5th, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
"Victims of Poor Officiating Bowl"
VOPO Bowl.
Nice.
December 5th, 2016 at 1:18 AM ^
sides of the ball. Playmakers on the D-line and in the back end. On offense it's obviously all about Dalvin Cook. Francois has been erratic at times, but can also make plays.
Biggest weakness on this FSU team is their offensive line. Needless to say, that bodes well for us...
December 5th, 2016 at 2:32 AM ^
should feast on FSU OL. They are awful.
Biggest key is Dalvin Cook and he's the best RB in the country. His vision and acceleration is second to none. Michigan LBs must clean up or Dalvin will run away at the 3rd level.
December 5th, 2016 at 6:39 AM ^
Someone call the Lions...
December 5th, 2016 at 7:07 AM ^
This.
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December 6th, 2016 at 1:14 AM ^
is pretty good. Above average. Decker and Rieff are above average tackles with Decker getting better and better. Swanson has been one of the best C in the league this season. Glasgow has played well in limited duties.
December 5th, 2016 at 7:34 AM ^
not that concerned about him. Our defense has faced other good backs this season and no one has done much of anything, other than maybe Wadley. I'd be more concerned about Francois having a good game, although if he's under constant duress that seems less likely.
The real question is can we score. The FSU defense is pretty legit. We need Speight to show up healthy and in late season form and the o-line not to lay an egg, as they've been prone to doing in the past.
December 5th, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
had a huge game against Michigan as well. If there's a weakness, it's a high level runner. Cook is better than all of them and can make people miss in space.
December 5th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
Fair point. It will be crucial that Michigan commits to fundamentals and tackles/contains well in this game - something that they've struggled with at times this season. However, if they manage to stay disciplined and wrap-up, I expect them to be able to more or less shut Cook down - fancy stats and all.
December 5th, 2016 at 1:54 AM ^
faced. He's healthy?... this game could be excellent and close.
Not to mention invading some recruit rich HS. practice setting.
...
.....
......
Penn State should have gone. I don't care about being overlooked as much as I care about OSU getting the perfunctory pass. I hate both of those programs. This sucks.
I'm not over it.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:41 AM ^
Saquon Barkley says hi.
I would argue that Barkley is just as good as Cook, if not better and Michigan's defense dealt with him okay.
December 5th, 2016 at 2:00 AM ^
having a "bad team" since the days of Bobby Bowden. I don't follow them every season, but they seem like they compete perennially.
Feel like we have a slight edge if we play with OSU-intensity but the game is in their backyard...-ish
I also feel like someone is eventually going to try to repeatedly burn Don Brown's style with screen passes to counteract our blitzing. I hope there's a counter.
That Cook is one of the best RBs in cfb by yards says to me their OL run-blocks well. Not sure about pass blocking, it was mentioned as a potential "area for improvement".
I'd reckon Harbaugh is chomping at the bit right about now, to go lay waste to the next team on the schedule 8-)
December 5th, 2016 at 2:25 AM ^
Peppers is an All-American screen destroyer. The reason why we don't see many screens against us is because he is so good at sniffing out those plays.
December 5th, 2016 at 6:09 AM ^
Which makes the Iowa screen to Wadley at the end of the game so frustrating.
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December 5th, 2016 at 7:11 AM ^
That was on McCray. He got caught too close to the line. Since then, we haven't put the LBs that close to the line (faking blitz) when they have man coverage on the RB
December 5th, 2016 at 7:27 AM ^
Somebody this year screened all over us (Maryland?). Don Brown cleaned that up.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:55 AM ^
FSU had a bit of a down period at the end of Bowden's tenure. On the field they went 8-5. 7-6, 7-6, 9-4 and 7-6 in his last five years (2005-09). Later they vacated some of those games.
December 5th, 2016 at 2:47 AM ^
this year from merely a star rating basis. I imiagine injuries and inconsistent qb play have contributed to their ups and downs. When their qb is good, he is very very good and when he is not, so too goest their team. I am basing this oiff of only three games and Louisville was more the result of Lamar being Lamar and taking its toll on the entire FSU team. They were not out of position or nearly as fultile as the score would indicate. They just were steamrolled by a Barry Sanders like performance that particular game. They should be treated with the respect deserving of any team that has an equivalent level of blue chippers as does OSU.
I think our DL and Brown's blitz packages should be able to make Francois uncomfortable and hopefully leading to bad decisions. We will give up chunk yardage - Cook is just that good - but I'm certain the game plan will be to accept that and try to mitigate it as much as possible and force the qb to beat us. Lewis, Stribling, Peppers, et. al., will play maror roles in determining the winner.
December 5th, 2016 at 3:43 AM ^
Florida State's offensive line is 84th in adjusted sack rate on standard downs and 92nd on passing downs. Francois gon' die.
December 5th, 2016 at 7:43 AM ^
It's all about exploitable matchups. Their biggest weaknesses are among our biggest strengths. They struggle to protect the QB on offfense, and on defense they can't cover. Our DL and blitzing is among the best in the country, and Harbaugh's passing scheme is tailor-made to confuse an overmatched secondary.
Conversely, their strengths don't exploit our biggest weaknesses. They have the bset RB in the country, but we have been strong aganist the run. They get a lot of sacks, but our much-maligned OL has actually been pretty good in pass-pro. They'll get some successful plays, but it won't be enough.
If our team is healthy and their heads are in the game, we should win it cleanly.
December 5th, 2016 at 2:48 AM ^
Anybody who thinks FSU is gonna get "the Rutgers treatment" either doesn't follow football outside UM, or is vastly overrating us. Florida State isn't a pushover, they've been basically top-20 for Fisher's entire career, including an undefeated season bookended by a 1-loss and 2-loss seasons.
Outside of that one bowl game where Oregon thrashed them, they've been competitive in every single bowl they've played. They're not going to give up, like Florida clearly did last year.
That's not to say we can't win, and I think we will, but I think this is gonna be a pretty close game
December 5th, 2016 at 7:39 AM ^
Last year's bowl game that they played against Houston wasn't that close, but I see your overall point.
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December 5th, 2016 at 7:41 AM ^
Their heads were not in that game. They will be for a game agaist Michigan.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:41 AM ^
Reading all of the people here talking about how we're just going to destroy them is a little disconcerting. FSU is a good team, and they match up fairly well with us. I'm a bit worried. I think we're clearly the better team, but football is weird. You would think people would recognize that by now, but fanboys gonna fanboy.
December 5th, 2016 at 9:03 AM ^
Yeah, this is the kind of game that very well could be a playoff game in a couple of years and might have sounded like one in the preseason. Hardly a pushover. I think we are very evenly matched. Honestly very excited for this.
December 5th, 2016 at 9:06 AM ^
Agreed. I think they're clearly better than Iowa, who obviously gave us a bit of trouble. Combine that with the game being in FSU's back yard... I'm a little nervous about it.
December 5th, 2016 at 3:06 AM ^
2016 - 2nd in country
2015 - 3rd
2014 - 4th
2013 - 11th
2012 - 3rd
2011 - 2nd
December 5th, 2016 at 5:57 AM ^
Jimbo has more in common with Lloyd Carr than I realized.
December 5th, 2016 at 7:15 AM ^
Brady Hoke is befuddled.
December 5th, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^
According to Scout, here are rankings and star averages for four teams of interest:
FSU
2012 11 3.95
2013 16 3.41
2014 3 3.61
2015 11 3.86
2016 4 3.76
Michigan
2012 4 3.64
2013 2 3.81
2014 35 3.56
2015 23 3.50
2016 29 3.59
Washington
2012 23 2.96
2013 14 3.26
2014 35 3.00
2015 23 3.21
2016 29 3.33
Clemson
2012 17 3.40
2013 12 3.35
2014 28 3.37
2015 15 3.38
2016 16 3.68
I haven't looked in depth to know how many members of those FSU and Michigan classes have panned out, but looking purely at the star averages, FSU is as talented as Michigan is.
December 5th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^
Dabo's done a better job than I thought. I assumed they were in the top 10 every year
December 5th, 2016 at 7:08 AM ^
We should be able to handle their offense. They've got playmakers - I've always thought Cook was the best rb in the country when healthy, which hasn't been often - but nobody that we can't handle. We can shut down any run game and they don't have a receiver JD & Crew can't cover. We will get to Francois - this will be one of the greatest matchup disparities in Offense vs. Defense adjusted sack rates in any bowl game.
On offense it will be about scoring enough. We have plenty of guys on both sides of the ball with one last game, against top-end competition, to improve their draft stock. I think our seniors help us pull away in this one.
31-17 Michigan
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December 5th, 2016 at 7:38 AM ^
Totally agree with this. It will be hard but if UM can shut down that run game and put them in longer passing downs I think UM can have a party in the backfield.
LIke you, I"m interested in the offensive scoring and how the offense looks. Obiviously, the vets will be here still to play (butt, darbough, etc) but Harbaugh also seems like he likes to get the young guys who will be next years stars in and going in bowl games. I'm curious and hopeful if we see guys like mcdoom and evans really play huge part in this game.
December 5th, 2016 at 7:32 AM ^
Anyone else concerned both team just lay eggs and UM looks like they did in the Iowa game? FSU is probably somewhat likely to do that seems if they are not "in the hunt" they play pretty unispried ball ball Jimbo. I'm hopeful Harbaugh, being the coach he is, has UM ready to rock.
I was impressed how UM came out last year against UF and hopeful we see that again. A lot of these guys are also fighting for draft spots on the defensive side so would think they'd be ready to ball.
December 5th, 2016 at 7:46 AM ^
Much different situation than Iowa.
Harbaugh has a month to prepare and motivate. Speight has a month to get healthy.
This is not some kind of "trap" game. There is a long time off untill the game, and nothing after it.
It will be two-thiirds of our team's last game in a Michigan uniform.
They will be focused.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:02 AM ^
No doubt I agree. I just mean historically you see some teams that are "just out" look a little uninspired in bowl games. Heck when you see the UM guys from the '06 team interviewed it feels like that was part of the issue against USC (amongst others...ie a home game for usc, going cross country, that usc team being pretty damn good, etc). I don't have as much concern because of how competitive Harbaugh is.
I ask because my neighbor is a FSU grad and that is the first thing he said about FSU. Literally "the verdict on Jimbo is he can't get his teams up if they are not still in the hunt". Of course Harbaugh > Jimbo by a country mile so there is that.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:52 AM ^
Apparently FSU is on a vision quest to get another 10-win season, but we are disappointed to miss the playoff and won't care about improving our record from the year before. That analysis is worth what I paid for it.
December 5th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
I agree re ESPN in general, but the same thought crossed my mind. I'm worried about a bit of a letdown.
December 5th, 2016 at 5:25 PM ^
Where the fuck did this meme come from that Harbaugh can't motivate team? He clearly knows how to push the right buttons on every level where he has coached.
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December 5th, 2016 at 7:48 AM ^
Can anyone else just not bring themselves to care about this game yet? I'll get there eventually big emotionally can't just yet.
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December 5th, 2016 at 8:04 AM ^
I'm with you on that. On ESPN they interviewed the players and they seemed a little down too which is expected. This all just happened and it's going to be a couple weeks until I am really amped up for one.
Once I see some more positive recruiting news it will get me more excited as UM will have the chance to beat big name FSU, finish 11-2 in front a hugely watched audience and really put a stamp on this year.
Right now though...I'm with ya buddy!
December 5th, 2016 at 8:23 AM ^
I'm pretty charged up. It's a major bowl game against a very good opponent. It's also an opponent that I don't like for many reasons:
- I think Bobby Bowden was and is a fraud (although it was funny watching him nudge the NCAA toward vacating the JoePa [KNEW!] wins).
- I don't like the school's tendency to turn its collective head when a star football player allegedly commits a heinous crime.
- I don't like Tallahassee's tendency to ignore crimes when allegedly commited by FSU star athletes.
- I don't like their apologist fans, who seem to think that even raising the above two points is heresy. (After they look up "heresy".)
- I don't like the fact that there is a Bobby Bowden Boulevard in Tallahassee which, IIRC, was named for Bowden while he was still a coach. Never, ever name a road after a living person!
- I don't like their "war chant", which I recall being described as "the only one that a fan could be expected to remember with a .200 BAC".
- To avoid being political, let's just say I don't like their mascot.
- I don't like their "scalping" of a field when they beat an away team. Politics aside, it's pretty bush league.
- I don't like that in 1991 that we grew our turf pretty damn high, and FSU still beat Michigan handily (51-31). (The theory being that the overgrown turf would slow FSU down - it didn't.)
I am hoping Michigan goes in and absolutely destroys FSU. I am charged up for this game.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:56 AM ^
Green Bay then.....