ESPN FPI Predicts 8.3 Wins for 2017 Season
ESPN's FPI Predicts 8.3 wins for 2017 season
"...Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."
1. OSU 11.8-1.0
2. Bama 10.6-1.9
3. Oklahoma 11.0-1.9
4. FSU 10.4-2.2
.
8. PSU 9.9-2.2
.
10. Wisc 10.6-2.2
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17. Michigan 8.3-3.7
" If you’re wondering why the totals don’t add up to whole numbers – that’s because it factors in the odds of each team reaching and winning/losing the Big Ten title game." (collegespun)
April 18th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
Is going to feel like a loss...
April 18th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
Getting a win against Florida will help get us to 10. I get the schedule; hard for me to see a JH team in Year 3 drop 8 regular season games. After Florida, this schedule sets up well for a young team, with some relatively easy B10 games to start (yes, Spaty, I am looking at you).
April 18th, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
EIGHT regular season games?? It's hard for any somewhat medicore team to drop 8 games.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
the annual rite of a thread with a prediction on a college football message board devolving into many posters being outraged at said prediction, and questioning the prediction's methodology.
One thing I've learned about college football --- teams (and their internal chemistry, a very under-rated intangible) tend to vary WILDLY from year-to-year, even if they have a bunch of returning starters.
It's very hard to fit a statistical model that leverages last year's results to predict this year's results. The "error bars" tend to be rather large.
19 weeks and 4 days to go until we get some actual, empirical results.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
I get that PSU recovered amazingly well and had a great year. That's to Franklin's credit and the rest of the team. But Michigan fans saw the obliteration in Ann Arbor last year, and through that lens saw a pretty lucky outing against Ohio State. Few in this fanbase are going to be as optimistic on PSU as the national pundits until we see a little more data, and rightfully against Michigan.
This is a "good team, on the road in a very hostile environment" thing for me. Might be hard for a young team to win there if things go poorly early. But it's not at all a "#8 team in the country, they're going to be excellent and very hard to beat" thing.
when it comes to PSU. We were very familiar with our destruction of them and are weighing that too greatly in our perception of their quality compared to all the other data points last year that suggested they were a very good team.
plus that one LB who was unfairly ejected over the stupid ass helmet to helmet rule. It shouldn't be surprising that Michigan offense was able to dominate against a 2nd string defense.
I felt that PSU got away from using Saquon Barkley where they should just feed him the damn ball 80% of the time.
A healthy PSU team would make for a far different game, but it's moot point because Michigan dominated as they should against an undermanned PSU team. PSU beat OSU, Wisconsin and nearly beat USC. They're a good team who deserved to win the B1G.
I got tired of hearing about our total destruction of PSU last year at the end of the season discussions about bowl berths, etc. They had none of their starting LBs against Michigan. The unfairly ejected guy was a walk-on. (They were good enough to be conference champs in anything but a huge fluke, but they weren't generally the team Michigan had the fortune to meet.)
So what was that worth? 3 touchdowns? Generous, that's a lot in football.
Michigan still won by more than 3 scores. It was over by halftime. Franklin was kicking field goals to avoid a shutout in the 3rd quarter. It could have easily been Miami of Ohio or Kent State or any other bodybag school that showed up that day.
It's an outlier on their schedule, but it's a cricitally important data point.
And their offense wasn't riddled with injuries.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^
April 18th, 2017 at 11:41 AM ^
I have 9-3 as our floor. If we beat Florida, then I have us undefeated until we go to unHappy Valley.
This team is still very raw and Florida has a lot of talent. Losing to them would be a disappointment but not a shock. We also have enough question marks on offense and even on defense to gack up one or two games from the group of Indiana, MSU, Minnesota, Maryland, and maybe even Purdue because it's on the road.
That said I think our ceiling is around 11-1. We're depending heavily on guys who didn't play much or at all last year, but for the most part they shouldn't have expected to play much because the guys in front of them were so good. Most likely, some will be as good as or better than the guys they replaced, and some won't be good enough to start for Purdue. If we get mostly the former, we could see 10 or 11 wins. Mostly the latter, 6 or 7. I think this team has more uncertainty than almost any other team in the country.
Name one Michigan starter who isn't good enough to start on Purdue.
that's a, wait for it.....Big House.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
Over. I don't buy PSU. I think we can take down OSU. It won't be an undefeated season but 8 wins would be a tragedy.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
Penn State either, at least not the way the natioanl media is convinced that they will be a top 10 team.
At the same time they will still probably be a top 20 team.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
Penn State has been figured out, as USC did in the 4th quarter of the Rose Bowl.
Just put a DB on the 20 on the right sideline of the field and wait for McSorely's arm punt. That's his only big play.
beat every team on its schedule this year. I believe it.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:45 AM ^
"That's not enough"!
Since I am not a pessimist, I've got the toss ups as being osu and @ psu. Therefore, 10 wins with 12 likely but in the interest of not being a kool aid drinker I'll say 12 is not guaranteed. But likely. With 13,14 and 15 probable as well. Even likely. Probably.
April 18th, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
April 18th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
April 18th, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
losing to no one, not Wisconsin, not PSU. No one.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
Just watched the highlights vs PSU again to make sure im not forgetting something.
Nope, PSU just sucked and ended the season massively overrated. Not buying the hype. Good teams don't lose to anyone by 39
April 18th, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^
But . . .but . . . their starting linebackers were out.
So you have to spot them a touchdown.
Or maybe two touchdowns.
Or maybe three touchdowns.
Or maybe four touchdowns.
Or maybe . . . nope, still not enough.
You are right, Penn State was overrated.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
Their starting linebackers being out allow their quarterback to get pressured and sacked
or give Barkley nowhere to go most of the game
or decide kick a field goal late in the game inside the 10.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^
Predicting a 1.5 game dropoff after losing the number of guys we just lost doesn't seem bad.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
Not totally unreasonable. The Florida game is a push, IMHO, and we've got to play at Wisconsin and at Penn State.
I'm in the camp of "I'll believe Franklin can beat Harbaugh when he actually beats him," but I guarantee that game will be a night game, so it's going to be tough. Playing at Camp Randall is going to suck, and then OSU is OSU. Not completely unreasonable to think we lose 2-3 of those games.
Lot of talent on this team, but its young and inexperienced. I think 2017 is a slight transition year, going anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2, and then 2018 is where things really start taking off. That's when you've got Harbaugh's top 10 classes starting to grow into being experienced upperclassmen.
By the time fall's kickoff happens with the Gators, this team is going to be very dangerous.
I mean sure its the mark, but I'm not holding my breath on it this year. Just too much to replace. Too many guys with no experience.
I'm thinking this will be a team that takes a few games at the beginning of the year to get their feet wet, and then really starts to hit their stride by November, finishes strong, and paves the way for CFP contention in 2018.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^
April 18th, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^
I mean...okay. Simulations are only as good as the data they have to use, and while I get the value in taking returning production and throwing it into a blender, this feels a bit loose. At the same time, 8-9 wins wouldn't be crazy.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
so that's at least 9 right there.
April 18th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
April 18th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
The W/L record will read like this:
WWWWWWWWWWWW
Go Blue
Because Michigan is not deep at some areas, I will go with 10+ wins if there are little to no lasting injuries in those areas. Possibly a couple more losses if lasting injuries take a toll...
If they were just looking at returning starters or even returning production we would probably be projected around 6-6. I think they're accounting for recruiting rankings of young, unproven players.
We probably lose once vs. Florida or Wisconsin. Season as usual comes down to Ohio State. Penn State not a problem and Sparty party is history. Soul cleansing time when MSU comes to Big House. If you're a Sparty it won't be pretty.
I'm not sure why people are thinking PSU is a given. Yes, we beat them mercilessly to a pulp last Fall, but that was at home against a discombobulated team still trying to figure out what the hell it was doing on offense. This is almost definitely going to be a white out AND a night game at Happy Valley. After watching PSU beat OSU last year, it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if they finally broke through and beat us.
Then we have to play at Camp Randall, which is never easy. Florida is a push, and OSU is OSU. While I don't think this will happen, I wouldn't be surprised if we lost all four of those games.
I'm simply shocked at your prediction. Shocked I say.
14 and 0 bitches and fuck ESPN...people are dumping their ass in droves
For whatever reason, Beaver Stadium is not the "Bermuda Triangle" for us like Kinnick Stadium, where we show up in Michigan uniforms and then play like we're Rutgers. We played very well at Penn State two years ago; and then of course embarrassed them last year in our House; and clearly we're in their heads now, in the same way OSU is in ours (ugh!).
PSU will be out for revenge this year, but emotion can only take them so far. I'll take our team, our preparation, and our coaches over their's any day.