Early '24 Michigan Football Vegas odds

The bluest skies you've ever seen in Seattle, and the hills the maizest maize in Seattle...

Washington loses their great QB, best RB, 1st round WR and possible 1st round OT, as well as their best player on a so-so defense. Michigan loses most of their offense but returns what should be an outstanding defense. There’s your spread.

For a similar reason, the TX game jumps out. If home field is 2.5 points they're saying TX is 5 points better on a neutral site. +2.5 in Ann Arbor is saying something.

You'd struggle too if you had just lost your Penix.

I'm not a fan of expansion, but I am so pleased with our schedule this year.  So many games I want to go see.  Struggled last year finding games to attend.  Ended up at OSU, road MSU and road Maryland (local) plus the playoffs.  Can't ask for a better end of year for sure, but Sept/Oct was not good.  This year we've got Texas, MSU, Oregon and USC all at home, plus I can't miss playing at Washington.  

In spite of the step up in competition with a team not quite as good, I much prefer this year's schedule.  It's a 12 team playoff.  Win the ones we should win and get one of Texas, Oregon or OSU and we're a lock.  Lose all three and we're borderline.  

We'll have exciting football to watch all year rather than snoozers in Sept/Oct.  Prove it on the field.  

I guess I just don't think the drop off on offense will be that great. We will probably lose a few because JJ isn't around to bail us out, but the offense as a whole has the pieces to remain very good in the areas that have gotten them to where they are now. Assuming the defense doesn't lose anymore major pieces, it should be able to carry the team. The success they have had has largely been on the back of the defense anyway, as the offense controls the game with a crushing ground attack and safe passing game - while playing clean and efficient.  Nothing about next year's offense makes me feel that isn't still achievable.  

I don't think they will be that bad. They probably won't be 15-0 again but it should be a very good team that could win the big ten if OSU is overrated again. 

Lot of teams have tough schedules next year. Perks of mega-conferences. Take Florida for example:

vs. #24 Miami
vs. Samford
vs. #25 Texas A&M
@ Miss State
vs. UCF
@ #16 Tennessee
vs. #23 Kentucky
vs. #1 Georgia
@ #4 Texas
vs. #12 LSU
vs. #6 Ole Miss
@ #15 Florida State

But don't overlook the likelihood that M will put 10+ in the 2025 draft as well.  

It will look different on offense, but the team should be pretty dang good.

We get better after Grant, Graham, Johnson, and both safeties go to the draft? Im not so sure. This team is built on defense especially the dline and secondary. The entire board is saying expect a down(ish) year which gives me lots of hope. Anytime the board is unison in anything youve got a fighting chance the opposite happens. 

Co-signed.

And I’m totally fine w that.  New HC, new staff, new QB, basically all new OL (albeit experienced) and thin at WR.  Plus an absolutely brutal schedule.

I’ll be wearing my national championship gear all season and know better days are right around the corner.

I think 8-9 wins seems like a great year next year.  We have a great defense, but hard to win more than 9 games without a solid QB.  Hopefully one rises to the occasion. 

Florida's schedule is crazy this coming season.  Wowsa!  Definitely a contender for toughest next year. 

What makes you think 2025 UM will make more waves than 2024 UM? 

I get it that the optimism for this team is not close to where it was last year, but why do we have to accept that we are going to for sure lose 3-4 games? I believe our defense will be better than last year.  There is not a game on our schedule that is a for sure loss at this point.  If we beat Texas at home, who knows what this team can accomplish.  I think it is time for Michigan fans to realize we have a program that reloads now instead of rebuilds.  Accept that!

I wouldn't go so far as to just accept a 4-loss season. Not with our returning defense. I'm thinking the regular-season floor is 3 losses and the likeliest scenario is 2. 

Big games: OSU, Texas, Oregon, USC, Wash. The last 2 are likely wins. The first 3 are very tough. But we just need to win 1 out of those 3, which seems reasonable.

And I think we land a starting QB, WR, and CB from the portal.

10-2. CFP.

Agreed.

I think 9-3 is BEST case scenario but 8-4 (and possibly 7-5) is actually more likely. UM's offense is probably going to suck donkey balls and the defense won't be as good as expected with the loss of every single defensive coach.

Texas, Oregon and OSU are basically auto-losses (even with Harbaugh back I think UM probably would have lost at least two of those) while USC and Washington (I can't believe UM is an 11 point favorite over Washington in Seattle...take the points and the Huskies) will be toss-ups.

I imagine this post will get heavily negged but I am pretty confident in my prediction of seeing UM struggle next season. I hope to be proven incorrect.

Texas also lost 90% of their receiving production, their 1k+ yard RB projected for the 2nd round, and, most importantly, their projected 1st round & 2nd round DTs. 

As much as they do replace a lot, I think you are understating how much leadership and experience they still bring back. They didn't just have one magical year. They have 3 years of playing for Championships, and learning how to win the big games.  Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Rod Moore, Donovan Edwards, Colston Loveland, Makari Paige and Kalel Mullings have all been big pieces of the last 3 years and provide a solid foundation. 

The rest of the team may be less "proven" but it's not like they will be 1st and 2nd year guys being thrown to the wolves. The O-line starters are all at minimum 3rd year players, and whoever the QB is will also be at minimum a 3rd year player - maybe even a 7th! 

They won't be as deep as the 23' team, but this is far from a total rebuild.