Early '24 Michigan Football Vegas odds
Texas at Michigan +2.5
[Edited] Michigan -11.5 @Washington
Michigan +7 at OSU
O/U Total Wins 9.5 (OSU at 10.5 highest along with Oregon)
These lines seem fair. But, given that it's the second game of the season replacing basically entire starters on offense, maybe Texas spread is a bit low? Great early season measuring stick. If we win 10 games, we'll make the playoff and I'd be happy.
Thoughts?
February 20th, 2024 at 12:28 AM ^
We're going to be happy with an 8 win season.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:35 AM ^
Happy with 8? C'mon.
8 is our absolute floor. 10 is achievable, 11 being our ceiling.
If we win one of Texas, Oregon, or OSU, we can get to 10.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:30 AM ^
I've got us losing all three of those this year. I prefer realist expectation with pleasant surprises over the eternal-optimist-despite-evidence.
2024 has too many shades of Carr's departure, and not enough of you are picking up on that.
February 20th, 2024 at 4:26 AM ^
25 points in each game last year wouldve had us at 15-0.
We averaged 40 and took a half a season of 4th quarters off. We are for sure a different team on offense but if we are close to the same on defense you just need an offense capable of a mediocre 25+ points per game. If you can put up that many against all but Texas/OSU you are looking at 10 wins. A knockout defense should deliver those 10 wins for sure.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:35 AM ^
Although I am not about to make THIS ^^^ bet again... Just a -7 with all the questions at QB going into Ohio is very encouraging.
Vegas respects those champions who stay as of this date.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:01 AM ^
Michigan vs Washington should be a great game... two teams rebuilding, new HCs, new QBs, new WRs. First time we've played in Washington in who knows how many years... can't wait for football season. Only 6.5 months ;)
February 20th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
UM last played in Seattle in September of 2001.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:18 AM ^
I predict the Oregon game will be the deciding factor on whether we get to the playoff or not. 9.5 is the right O/U. Guessing we beat USC and UW, lose to Texas and Ohio State, and Oregon is a coin flip.
Beat Oregon, 10-2, in the playoff with a first round home game.
Lose to Oregon, 9-3 , probably out of the playoff, but maybe a 11 or 12 seed.
February 20th, 2024 at 5:58 AM ^
This looks right but I think that people are sleeping on PSU because we have owned them In recent years. They have a fairly stocked team. Yes, Frames seems to always find ways to lose to us, but with an entirely new (and largely unproven) coaching staff on our end, while I think our defense should be able to home them to few points, I am not taking a win against them for granted.
February 20th, 2024 at 7:13 AM ^
Michigan will not lose to Penn State during regular conference play in the ‘24 season. In fact, PSU won’t score against the maize & blue.
FWIW - conference expansion and schedule - Michigan doesn’t face PSU in regular conference play this year.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:31 AM ^
Sleeping on a team we don't play.
February 20th, 2024 at 5:58 AM ^
What’s the money line for the Osu game? That paid well in 21 and 22
February 21st, 2024 at 6:32 PM ^
I am very happy being an underdog to OSU, makes it better when we win
February 20th, 2024 at 6:15 AM ^
Beat osu amd msu and im happy.
February 20th, 2024 at 7:53 AM ^
Regarding the Texas line: Remember that U-M is a monster at home. They’ve played four one-score games in Ann Arbor in three years. (And of those, the only one they trailed in the fourth quarter was Illinois.)
February 20th, 2024 at 8:25 AM ^
10-2 makes the playoffs for sure, 9-3 gives us a shot with that schedule.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:40 AM ^
I think they're off. We're at home vs Texas, I would say pick em.
At Washington, 11.5 is alot in road. A TD.
at OSU... they have a new QB and OC. They're aren't a TD ahead. No fucking way. pick em
February 20th, 2024 at 8:59 AM ^
Really? I think 7 is being generous toward Michigan. The Game is in Columbus against arguably the most talented OSU team we have seen in decades.
It's honestly surprising Vegas and the Media have been showing Michigan the amount of respect they have been. We lose a ton, and if you aren't someone who really knows the team it definitely looks like they will take a pretty sizeable step back.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:22 AM ^
That's all true, but we have yet to lose to OSU in the 2020's. Got to factor that in.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:28 AM ^
That does not factor into handicapping. Past events do not influence future probability.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:38 AM ^
McCord is gone. Who knows how Howard performs under Kelly. I think its bold to give 7 points, especially with our D and recent history.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:06 AM ^
I agree if they have a weak spot it's the QB and probably the O-line as well, but their defense will be elite, and I expect the offense to better than last year.
They have stacked an absurd amount of experienced* talent, and it's in the shoe - against a Michigan team that is likely closer to the 21' ceiling than the 23'. I'm not saying we can't win, but OSU looks like heavy favorites right now.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:27 AM ^
7 points on the road with that difference in QB experience is actually kinda flattering to Michigan, sight unseen.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:53 AM ^
I agree, and 9-3 might even get them into the playoff depending on how things break.
February 20th, 2024 at 8:55 AM ^
As a confirmed pessimist I think this season will be 8-4. Losing JJ, Blake, the entire starting OL, Barner is obviously a lot to replace. The schedule doesn’t allow the new guys to ease into the season and gel.
"Defense will be great of course, but I can see losses to TX, Oregon,OSU and a random team.
February 20th, 2024 at 10:25 AM ^
Any trip to the West Coast is a potential horror show over my 41 years on Earth, but they are too physically developed to lose to anyone below the Texas/OSU/Oregon tier without MAJOR self-inflicted kicks in the sack.
February 20th, 2024 at 12:18 PM ^
Our last game on the West coast turned out pretty good 👍
February 20th, 2024 at 6:19 PM ^
Yeah well the previous umpteen did not
February 20th, 2024 at 8:56 AM ^
I'm really only concerned about our QB, if we get solid production there then 10+ wins is looking good. Our Defense will again be top 5-10 in the nation.
February 20th, 2024 at 9:39 AM ^
9.5 wins sounds reasonable. I'm hoping for another undefeated season - but, the schedule certainly has its share of challenges.
Really looking forward to the home slate of games.
Go Blue!
February 20th, 2024 at 10:23 AM ^
Texas has a ton to replace as well. Entire offensive skill group is gone, along with Sweat and Murphy, who covered up some weaknesses around the rest of the defense.
A 2.5 pt home dog sounds about right, and looks like a moneyline I may be interested in.
February 20th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
A lot of Michigan's success will be dependent on how well the new QB performs. I kind of wish we had gotten a good QB and a stud WR from the portal. If Orgi can improve his 10 to 20 yard passing game, I think he will be the starter. The floor will be 8 wins and it is possible to go undefeated. Odds are we win 9 or 10 games.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:25 PM ^
Before Tuttle I put Michigan’s floor as 7-5, even with a likely top five defense coming back as the offense would take a giant step back.
With Tuttle, who I believe can and will have at least a 21’ Cade type of year, if not better, I fully believe the floor is between 9-3 to 10-2, with a decent chance of being 11-1 or even 12-0 regular season.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:32 PM ^
I sure wish that Texas game was much later in the year when UM will have more time to be comfortable with the new coaches and the weather might be favorable to Mich players.
If UM makes that game competitive, we should be in good shape to have a great season.
February 20th, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^
Considering how insanely difficult Michigan's schedule is this season, if Michigan finishes 9-3, Michigan will make the 12 team playoff.
#GoBlue
February 20th, 2024 at 4:33 PM ^
Defense still wins championships, and I think we should be very good there again. On offense, it seems that every year someone emerges as a potential star, be it at receiver, RB, or QB. With Moore at the helm, I don't see our O-line going from great to suddenly terrible; one would expect he'd make sure the wheels don't come off the bus.
Seems to me it's more likely that we have one or two losses than three or four, unless our new QB turns out to be a turnover machine.
However, I'm not giving up on the 'win-'em-all' dream with this defense.
February 21st, 2024 at 6:34 PM ^
QB play will determine if we win 11 or 8 games this year. The schedule is a gauntlet of tough games, we need to be able to score some points to make it through
February 21st, 2024 at 2:29 AM ^
This team will be a running the ball a lot with a great defense. Much like the '97 team. We were ranked around number 15 in the preseason polls and everyone was predicting another 4 loss season for Carr. Most thought Brian was just an average B1G QB and most missed the fact we had an elite defense. So, if our starting QB can be an average B1G QB we could be in great shape. Back in '97 Colorado was number 8 in the country and the line was UM +6 at home and we whipped them 27-3. Everyone thought we would lose 3 of the next several games against ND, MSU, Iowa, WI, and OSU. So, I see a better chance this season making it to the playoffs than in 25.
February 21st, 2024 at 8:27 AM ^
I wonder if and/or when we'll have to deal with Peacock