CFP thoughts
If the final four lands the way many are saying, and assuming it stays that way through conference championships, at #2 Michigan would play a #3 TCU. But which team do you all think we match up against better?
I'd prefer TCU, so I'm curious who would rather exercise some demons of Rose Bowls past and dispatch USC. I was personally at Bo's last game and it was truly painful to see him go out that way.
Any thoughts?
November 27th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Rob f and LSA have some work to do.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
Nah, we're havin' fun!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Exactly.
I've only deleted a couple threads since yesterday afternoon because right now EVERYTHING IS GOOD (everything within reason, that is).
November 27th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
I like to think I'm a reasonable person...
November 27th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
You are the sheriff , I’ll defer to your wisdom
November 27th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Rob was 42-27 percent smarter than me, but now it’s like 45-23 percent smarter. IDK anymore
November 27th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
I guess we will get another data point next week, but TCU does not look that impressive. SC does, although their defense is not great, and maybe not even good. ND has struggled this year on offense, and seemed to be able to move it around pretty well last night.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
The lack of defense in the Big 12 is what I was thinking... They don't have it, and aren't used to playing against it.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
The power ratings I've seen show that TCU's defense, while not great, is much better than USC's. For example SP+ (not including yesterday's games) has TCU defense #36 and USC #64. Overall TCU is #7 and USC #14. Similarly PiRatings has TCU #12 overall and USC #20. These are both teams that betting lines do not like as much as their record.
I think it would be cool to play USC as a true Rose Bowl type matchup in a semifinal. I also think that with their marshmallowy defense it will be easy to control the game. We could just run Corum/Edwards and stay on schedule and possess the ball for several minutes at a time, giving our defense rest for when they have to chase Caleb Williams.
Edit: updated PiRatings have TCU #7 and USC #16
November 27th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
I should also note that I am seeing TCU/Kansas St as a pick em, and Utah as a slim favorite over USC so ... these seedings are *far* from a formality. TCU might still make it with a close loss, but USC probably can't afford one.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
SC offense looks good, that secondary was straight trash last night
November 27th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
I think TCU is a better matchup for Michigan. But I think we could also take USC too.
Georgia still scares me but I think we have a better shot against them this year, particularly if Corum and Edwards are 100% by then, which they should be
November 27th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
I think what JJ showed yesterday changes the equation. If Michigan has a legit downfield passing threat, they are right there with Georgia for best team in the country
November 27th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Exactly. We just beat the piss out of the #2 team, on their home field, by 22 points. We just might be the best team in the world right now.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
After hearing about Michigan's soft schedule all year, we are the only team with 2 wins over top 10 teams. According to FPI, have the second best strength of record behind TCU (who has lived dangerously all year) and ahead of Georgia. Our game control is #2 behind only Georgia. There is an argument that UM should be ranked #1 but it won't happen.
To the OP's question, I don't care who we play in the first round so long as it is not Georgia. I like our defense to shut down anyone we play (especially in the second half) with the possible exception of Georgia. FPI has TCU's defense at #24 and USC at #65. We should be able to move the ball on either of these teams.
Beat Purdue, beat whoever we have in the first round, and then get our revenge on Georgia!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
Just saw the cheap shot on Michigan's OOC schedule again in a Yahoo Sports! article.
As opposed to Georgia, who played powerhouses like Kent State and Samford.
Nope, no media bias there.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Alabama managed to beat Utah State, Austin Peay, and UL-Monroe this season, teams I'm sure we were too afraid to schedule (according to the national media).
November 27th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Does anyone else think Bama scheduling Austin Peay the second to the last week of the season is... Sorta... Weak?
November 27th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
SEC consistently does this. They also pepper them throughout the year to avoid having to play two big games in a row.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
But haven't you heard that EVERY game in the SEC is a big game? Austin Peay, because they are playing at an SEC venue against an SEC team, is a big game.
November 27th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
That's fine that the SEC tries to work the OOC scheduling to their maximum advantage, there are no rules or penalties against it under the current NCAA rules for FBS and FCS teams.
My issue is when most of the national sports media sits there and pretends SEC teams are playing a, "tough," OOC schedule when they have FCS teams on the bill.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Georgia also played Oregon.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
Georgia also only plays 8 conference games.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
Only way Mich is moved to #1 is if the committee wants to shoehorn Bama in, which they might.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Does anyone know how they decide home/away teams? Is the higher seed always home?
(Assuming we go—knock on wood—I’d like to buy tickets as soon as it’s announced, and I’d prefer to be on Michigan’s side of the field)
November 27th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Yes, the higher (better) seed is the home team.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Awesome, thanks! I guessed that was the case just from watching past games, but wasn’t sure if that was the rule.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
Never really gave it much thought, but last year we were the home team and Bama was the home team in both of their games.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
I'd much rather play USC or TCU than 2021 UGA. 2021 UGA was stacked on defense in a way I haven't seen for some time.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
They also won the national championship
November 27th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
I'd prefer TCU because they look far more beatable. USC feels like a typical OU/Riley team that'll score a ton of points but won't stop you consistently without turnovers. I just remain unimpressed by USC as a top-4 team; they're +24 in turnover margin (!) but still had to go 4-1 in 1-score games this year. That feels like a metric ton of positive luck to go right for a team.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
If I had the gumption I would look up USC's turnover margin stats in the last 40-ish years. Seems like every time I watch USC they are winning the turnover margin. This year is no exception.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
I'm terrified of USC. Caleb Williams is playing at such a high level right now, and while I don't think their defense is anything particularly special ...
Well, let's just say I'd much much much rather play TCU in the first round. Ideally here in Arizona, so I can go!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Despite the danger USC poses, i think we still need to root for them to win next week and make the playoff -- because the likely alternative would be OSU. And, Fuck Ohio.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
I was really hoping the only content after the jump was the word: discuss!
Georgia v usc and Michigan v tcu is how it's shaping up.
TCU seems least likely to advance, UGA v USC is harder to predict. Georgia only has 2 quality wins this year against Oregon and Tenn, and have largely gone on cruise control since, and their defense has taken a big step back since last year. USC can give them a game.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Actually, TCU, Georgia, and USC all have hard games left before the final standings are released. They'll certainly all be favored, but ... it's a bit early to predict the outcomes of the first round of the playoffs.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
Thank you for saying this ... in particular both TCU and USC will likely be *very* slim favorites this week, if not underdogs (USC in particular). TCU is playing a team (K St) that was blowing TCU out before losing their top *two* QBs to injury. USC is playing a team that already beat them.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
That was kind of the whole point of the thread, though.
November 27th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
They scrolled halfway down the thread before throwing up their hands and yelling "Enough with the speculation!" Really makes you think.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
I’ll take TCU but they won’t be a cakewalk. They like us are a second half time and seem to make adjustments. They’ve certainly come close to losing several times but would be a tough out though likely the best option of any of the remaining teams.
Of course beat Purdue.
November 27th, 2022 at 5:59 PM ^
I’ve watched a decent amount of TCU this year. They are a bit of a paper tiger. Best win was over K-State (9-3), followed by Texas (8-4). K-State was winning big, and TCU then knocked out their QB1 and QB2. Run defense against Texas looked legit good; Ewers could not hit the broad side of a barn. The rest of TCU’s opponents have anywhere from 1 to 7 wins, with most being 6-6 teams.
The team really is benefitting from the Big 12 being mediocre at all levels.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
If we beat Purdue, can see us beating TCU and playing USC for the Natty at SoFi. Win the game. Beat Purdue.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Like last year, I didnt dare to even consider possibilities of a post OSU win. Now that we’re here again, Im just like….could we win it all? Georgia is still the team to beat but doesnt look as earth destroying as last year. TCU and USC are absolutely beatable. Couple that with I think 2022 Michigan > 2021 Michigan and I’m like wow. We have a real shot all of a sudden
November 27th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
I'd rather USC and UGA soften each other up and we take on TCU in round 1. USC - UGA will be a fantastic matchup. I think USC has enough offensive firepower to overcome UGA's defense.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
USC's defense is going to let them down in the playoffs. They're a clone of Riley's OU teams - that high powered offense will hit a wall when it doesn't consistently get the big plays it requires against a playoff calibre defense. And the #65 defense in the country will not stop any team worthy of playoff consideration.
How well did OU ever fare in the playoffs under Riley?
November 27th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
Georgia has been shaky at times this year too. If we are the 1 seed, we get to choose where we play in the semifinals, right?
November 27th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
I want Michigan to beat TCU in the 2/3 game and USC to beat Georgia in the 1/4 because I'm old and remember the "good old days."
The idea of Michigan going to California to play USC in a big bowl game would be...almost perfect. Perfection will come when we BEAT USC and win the national championship. Go Blue!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Does anyone know how they assign the two semifinal locations? Does the #1 seed get to pick?
I’m debating buying tickets, and it’s much easier for me to travel to Arizona. Thanks in advance! Go blue!!
November 27th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
#1 seed picks their spot. Would guess either UM or UGA picks Atlanta, unless UM is the #1 seed and LSU sends UGA down to #4...
November 27th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
TCU has the toughest game left against KSU. I doubt both of KSU QBs will be injured in this game. If TCU goes down, then either OSU or Alabama would be the number 4 team. If it is Alabama, we will magically jump GA as the number 1 team, so 2 SEC teams will not play each other in the first round.