Is this Beilein's best team ever?
Here we are February 12 and Michigan has virtually locked up an NCAA bid. Great job by Beilein and his staff. Great job by the team, especially Novak and Douglas, who refuse to let this team give in under any circumstance. This team routinely imposes their will on teams.
At this point M is in contention for a BIG title (hard to believe), and as far as a NCAA bid, it is only a question of how high a seed they can get. A 4 seed is not out of the question.
Wins over NCAA tourney teams so far is 5:
Memphis
Iowa State
Indiana
Wisconsin
MSU
6 of 7 losses are against teams that will make the tourney and Iowa still might. Losses are:
Duke
Virginia
Arkansas
MSU
OSU
Indiana
That this team is 9-4 in the BIG in lieu of the shooting woes of Smot, Hardaway, and Vogrich, is a testament to the toughness of this team. An Elite 8 appearance is not out of the question, should they get there, this will undoubtedly go down as Beileins' best team ever. Beilien's WV team that made the Elite 8 went 24-11 on the season, 8-8 in the Big East and finished tied for 7th. Beilien's best conference finish in the Big East was a third place finish, which led to a Sweet Sixteen appearance in the NCAA
Let's get it done boys.
| 2004–2005 | West Virginia | 24–11 | 8–8 | T-7th | NCAA Elite Eight |
| 2005–2006 | West Virginia | 22–11 | 11–5 | 3rd | NCAA Sweet Sixtee |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Beilein
EDIT: fixed spelling failure of Beilein. I don't think I have ever spelled his name correct until now.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:02 PM ^
Good post. I was thinking along the same lines after the game and wondering exactly how deep into the tourny this team needs to go for the season to exceeded expectations. As of right now i see sweet 16 and a tough loss in that game but you just never know. Obviously a defeat in either of the first two games would be a significant downer but in a "one and done" tourny fouls and a hot player can spell upset.
And just think that it's NEXT year is when the basketball calvary really arrives. That team could be amazing.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:05 PM ^
http://www.grammarist.com/usage/calvary-cavalry/
Calvary is the hill of skulls on which Jesus was crucified.
/pedantic semantics
February 12th, 2012 at 6:44 PM ^
Thank you but the word i used was accurate. Next year's recruits are so bad-ass our team will render the rest of the B1G a hill of skulls
s/
(looking at shoes hoping other posters buy my explanation.......)
February 12th, 2012 at 5:05 PM ^
but it's "Beilein." I wouldn't say anything, but you misspell it like 6 times.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:08 PM ^
February 12th, 2012 at 5:10 PM ^
Downie, though Tide is nice as well. Congrats, Google, on filling my side-ad with Tide acti-lift cold water.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:13 PM ^
I need to add Beilein to my dictionary.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:36 PM ^
But given that the spelling is "Beilein," I always wondered why the pronounciation isn't "By-line," instead of "Bee-line."
Bernstein. Einstein. Frankenstein. Steinway.
When Beilein first arrived here, I know that I misspelled it a couple of times, based on the nonstandard pronounciation.
There's probably some good Germanic versus Romance Languages explanation...
February 12th, 2012 at 8:35 PM ^
"I" before "E", except when your coach is a Beilein
February 12th, 2012 at 5:07 PM ^
I just hope that the loss of Stu and Novak next year doesnt resemble the loss of lee and merritt
February 12th, 2012 at 5:16 PM ^
We'll miss them, I'm sure, but having Burke back will be big. PG is the most important position on the court and we didn't have one during that underachieving year.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:49 PM ^
Don't think we will suffer the same fate. Obviously they will be missed but this time I think the torch is being passed to real leadership...mainly Burke but I'm also beting on TH and Smot stepping up.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:44 AM ^
Let's hope Burke doesn't fall into the sophomore slump that Evan and Tim have. While I agree that all 3 of them have shown signs of leadership, Burke the most, the Wolverines are really going to miss Stu and Zack's defense. You can't replace their smarts, experience and communication easily. Stu especially doesn't get enough credit for the defense he plays, without typically getting into foul trouble, or the directions he gives.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:13 PM ^
Additions of Horford and Mitch, along with Burke a year older, and odds are THJ staying another year, means that losing Novak and Douglass won't be as painful.
February 12th, 2012 at 11:25 PM ^
we will be replacing 2 guys (Novak & Douglass) with 6 guys (Robinson, Stauskas, McGary, Bielfeldt, Brundidge and Horford). We lose an awful lot with Stu and Zack, but maybe we will make up for it in sheer numbers.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:14 PM ^
Could be. If Horford were healthy, I'd definitely say yes. Lack of depth in the middle still worries me a little. I feel better about our PG depth, OTOH, with Douglass is stepping up there lately.
BTW, someone's got to find a better photo of Beilein for his wikipedia page.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:24 PM ^
He doesn't even have his sleeves rolled up and his tie loose with the top botton unbuttoned. It is preposterous.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^
Time will tell...
Vague, but true. Depends on what happens down the stretch and in the tournaments. But it is certainly possible.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:15 PM ^
February 12th, 2012 at 5:19 PM ^
How great a team is, is defined on what they do in March.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:29 PM ^
Exactly. It's too early to tell how good this team will be. They could dominate from here on out or falter down the stretch. The team will be judged on how they do in the tournaments in March.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:37 PM ^
I would be surprised to see this team falter down the stretch. They play too hard, too smart and too together for that to likely happen. Backed by great coaching and fantastic senior leadership this team will battle to the end. Plus it seems to me, Beilein's teams improve as the season goes on, and usually play their best ball at the end of the season.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:00 PM ^
I would too, but I was just saying it's a possibility. This certainly seems like Beilein's most talented team, but it remains to be seen whether it will be his best team. And, frankly, there's a long way to go before we can claim we're better than an elite 8 team.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^
I don't think that's necessarily the case. If this team goes 11-7 or 12-6 in B1G play, then I think they're better than last year's team regardless of if they're upset in March.
February 12th, 2012 at 11:29 PM ^
That cannot be answered until the season is over (or at least until we make the sweet 16).
February 13th, 2012 at 1:15 AM ^
If the question was is this Belien's best season ever then we would have to wait till after the NCAA tournament to decide. Since it's merely asking if it's his best team, I think we can determine that after the regular season is over. That's why I laid out a couple of hypotheticals as the answer to the question. The NCAA tournament is exciting and all, but I think a team that goes 12-6 in the best conference in the country is still better than a team that gets hot at the end and goes .500 in conference(his elite 8 squad).
February 12th, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^
....and a very timely post. Thanks, Gordie.
If they keep up this pace, considering that they are 19-7 now, they could potentially finish the season just short of the B1G Tournament in the neighborhood of 23-8 (again, if they keep a 0.730 winning percentage). That's excellent really.
It's hard to tell what will happen in the B1G Tournament and in the NCAA Tournament, of course, but I don't see any reason why, if they play like they did today minus a foul here and there, they couldn't go far into the B1G tournament and perhaps make a run at the Sweet Sixteen barring unforeseen upset earlier.
It was great to see Hardaway, Vogrich and Smot start to emerge from slumps at precisely the right time - before the Ohio game. We will need at least a repeat of today's performance.
Is this his best team ever? It could very well be up there at least, and such a thought makes next year sound outright fantastic.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:40 PM ^
You say that a 4-seed isn't out of the question. Honestly, if Selection Sunday were today, I think they'd get a 4-seed. If they get hot and somehow win the Big Ten Tournament, I don't think a 2-seed is out of the question (at all).
February 12th, 2012 at 5:44 PM ^
and I think that's probably right. Lack of road wins probably keeps them from getting above a 4 I would think.
Also, fans give more weight to conference tournaments than the Committee ever seems to. Every year people are shocked when some team that caught fire in a conference tourney didn't move up more on the S-Curve.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:23 PM ^
We were the 2nd-highest-rated 5-seed when it was last updated. Since then (2/8), the following teams have lost:
- the 1st-rated 5-seed (St. Mary's)
- the 4th-rated 4-seed (Florida State)
- the 2nd-rated 4-seed (Creighton)
- the 3rd-rated 3-seed (Florida)
- the 2nd-rated 3-seed (Georgetown)
At worst, we'd be a 4-seed if it were updated through today.
As for your conference tournament point, that isn't my memory of it, but I'd have to look back at the recent history.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:32 PM ^
The Blue Jays' losses certainly help our cause. Mid-majors need to win voraciously to keep their seed prospects intact. 3 recent losses, including to mediocre Evansville and Northern Iowa teams, really hurts Creighton. Wichita State may now enter top-25 territory after defeating Creighton, but shouldn't be a direct threat to our tourney seeding.
February 12th, 2012 at 11:33 PM ^
and another 2,3,4 losses is quite possible. Today's win was the first time we have won 2 in a row in about a month.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:25 AM ^
Schedule strength cuts both ways and that goes for us as well as all the teams we're compared to. We could drop, but we're as likely to rise.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:51 PM ^
(I'm leaving the h-stutter in to show my excitement.)
It's been 14 years since we were solidly in the dance at this stage. Both of Beilein's prior M-appearances required some down-the-stretch must wins...@ Minny three years ago & vs MSU & Illinois in the B1G Tourney last year.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:00 PM ^
Yeah, it was a very cool feeling when they put up the "Guess the Tourney Resumé" thing up on the screen and I knew we weren't going to be one of them . . . because we were already a sure thing.
February 12th, 2012 at 5:59 PM ^
Win out and it's ours.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:06 PM ^
February 12th, 2012 at 6:23 PM ^
Before those two graduate, let's make sure we know how their names are spelled: Zack Novak and Stu Douglass.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:21 PM ^
...and just imagine if the following ingredients had been in place all season long:
(1) A non-struggling Hardaway
(2) A non-existent stretch by Smot
(3) An injured Horford
(4) Darius Morris w/ junior eligibility
(5) Very little bench production.
I'm more and more amazed at what this team has accomplished with a true frosh PG and key players struggling offensively. If Hardaway and Smot have indeed turned the corner, and Vogrich contributes with a few key 3's here and there (boy, he reminds me of Pelinka's contributions during the early 90's), this team could make a sweet 16 run.
I love Burke's game. He's got a little Allen Iverson in him with his ability to get into the lane and get his shot off, plus a great mid- and outside game (but thankfully not the "practice?" attitude of Iverson). Maybe point #4 above isn't such a big deal. I think our offense runs more fluidly with Burke at the point. Morris was probably a better pure shot-creator, but Burke can put teammates in a good position to score.
BTW, I really liked Vogrich and Hardaway on the court at the same time today. I was initially worried about our team "D" with these two guys out simultaneously, but Vogrich scraps and hustles. If you sit them in a 1-3-1, this combo can be effective defensively.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:25 PM ^
You could throw in Ben Cronin at the 5 spot, too. Career-ending injuries are not common in college basketball. That was a significant blow.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:34 PM ^
Good point. I'm a card-carrying member of the #rememberBenCronin club.
Also Robin Benzing. Would've been a premiere recruit of JB's first (2nd?) class.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:22 PM ^
This is not his "best team ever," at least yet. I am guessing he is one Pittsnogle-type away, though. Maybe next year.
February 12th, 2012 at 6:32 PM ^
February 12th, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^
Could be, but they have to finish...
However, NEXT YEAR's team will be his most talented IMO. If we can find a #2 ball handler, there is no reason why we shouldn't be a favorite to be in the Sweet 16 next year.
February 12th, 2012 at 7:58 PM ^
I like that you can actually see a lot of players contributing. It's not like we just have one star that carries us through all of the games. Today we had four players above ten points in Hardaway, Burke, Smotrycz, and Novak (they scored 15-14-13-12 respectively). I 've enjoyed Vogrich in both of his last two starts, and he scored 8 today. They seem to be playing well together, they just need to kick it up a notch in March.
February 12th, 2012 at 8:01 PM ^
double "s" as well in the surname, if we're correcting things.
As far as your question, here's my take: if Hardaway, Smot and Vogrich start hitting a decent percentage from behind the arc (some good signs of late, no?) and if Stu, Zach and Trey stay the course, this team could go a long way both in the B10 tourney and the NCAA tourney. It's been a fun season regardless. I loved that they're still competitive while their "star" has struggled a bit. How great would it be for THJ to flick the switch? I was sad to see Darius go, but Trey continues to impress. Kid is fearless.
February 12th, 2012 at 8:22 PM ^
Last year's team was better but next years team will be better than that one.
February 12th, 2012 at 8:58 PM ^
Well, there are several ways to measure "best". In terms of the team's record, it's certainly the best any of his UM teams have performed. 19 wins is the most any of them ever had in the regular season. This team is certainly likely to surpass that, having already matched it with 5 games remaining.
By another definition, I would like to see how far they make it in the tournament. As mentioned by several their record should make the first few rounds much easier matchups than what we've seen before. His last two tournament teams both ran into guys in the 2nd round who were a few months away from being the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. Guess we need to avoid Kentucky then.
As mentioned in earlier posts, I would be far more confident in their tourney outlook if there was depth. If Brundidge had developed faster and Horford was healthy, it would make all the difference. As it is the team is basically 7 deep, and that doesn't bode well for a tourney run - especially if they run into foul trouble. You saw today how foul trouble kept Morgan off the court. Fortunately Smotz showed up for the game, but even he finished with 4 fouls as did Hardaway. McLimans has been pleasant at times, and Akunne was as well before his injury, but I think we can all agree we would only like to see Blake in the game during the tourney if the UM lead is 20 with 3 minutes to go.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:33 AM ^
The benches get shorter as the games grow tougher. I don't think depth is a problem for them, they had arguably less last year in terms of experience.