2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V6.0
tl;dr - below is a list of potential commits sorted by position, per 247's warm interest indicator. Just go to the charts if you hate prose.
I have not done one of these since late July as recruiting slows down during football season but we are now entering the late stretch in the 2016 recruiting class. This will be a shorter version than usual.
What is this?
A winnowing tool of realistic prospects utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. All caveats, warnings, and wag of the fingers about this methodology can be found in earlier versions.
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the V1.0 so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished.
New things
- I've added a section at bottom dedicated to "flips" since this is the season for them and UM has quite a few now out there they are chasing.
- I also added a "B" for the Buck position as UM is either not going after or didn't have success with a lot of pure WDEs this cycle (ala Josh King). Connor Murphy seems to be the only one of serious note we have a chance with; hence we are looking at good sized linebackers at the HS level ala Kemp.
OFFENSE
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | N/A | ||||||
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 88 | 13 | UM 36% / USC 27% | 11 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 116 | 19 | 84% MSU | 25 |
| WR | π Young | FL | 3 | 372 | 64 | 46% UM / 38% FSU | 13 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 928 | 139 | 79% Stanford / 14% UM | 14 |
| TE | Isaac Nauta | GA | 4 | 10 | 1 | 79% GA / 21% FSU | 38 |
| TE | Jacob Mathis | FL | 4 | 317 | 10 | 100% Florida | 3 |
| OT | Jean Delance | TX | 4 | 89 | 11 | Texas 53% / A&M 29% | 17 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 62 | 1 | UM 76% / Maryland 24% | 17 |
| OG | Johncarlo Valentin | PA | 3 | 379 | 14 | 20% Temple / 20% ASU | 5 |
DEFENSE
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 4 | 198 | 14 | UM 60% / ASU + Oregon 20% | 5 |
| DE / B | Levi Onwuzurike | TX | 4 | 273 | 20 | N/A | 0 |
| DE | Terrell Lucas | FL | 3 | 1228 | 73 | 83% UM | 6 |
| DT / DE | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | UM 60% / Bama 25% / Aub 10% | 40 |
| DT | Jordan Elliott | TX | 4 | 94 | 14 | Texas 69% / USC 23% | 13 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 159 | 17 | TCU 33% / Oklahoma 33% | 12 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 117 | 5 | Texas 69% / Bama 15% | 13 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 23 | 3 | Oklahoma 95% / UM 5% | 21 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 231 | 10 | FSU 65% / UM 27% | 26 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 417 | 32 | UM 74% / ND 22% | 23 |
| LB | Jeffrey McCulloch | TX | 4 | 73 | 5 | Texas 58% / A&M 42% | 12 |
| LB / B | Carlo Kemp | CO | 4 | 310 | 14 | UM 70% / ND 30% | 10 |
| CB | Mecole Hardman Jr | GA | 5 | 20 | 1 | 79% GA,/ 16% TX | 19 |
| CB | Shyhein Carter | LA | 5 | 52 | 6 | 52% GA / 22% AL | 27 |
| S | Jordan Fuller | NJ | 4 | 123 | 8 | 67% OSU | 13 |
| S | Lamar Jackson | CA | 4 | 95 | 5 | 100% USC | 4 |
FLIPS
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Committed | # Pred |
| RB | Kareem Walker | NJ | 4 | 31 | 1 | OSU (50% UM) | 12 |
| DT | Keyshon Camp | FL | 4 | 188 | 20 | USC (33% UM) | 3 |
| LB / B | Quayshon Alexander | NJ | 3 | 450 | 31 | Neb (0% UM) | 13 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 135 | 11 | PSU (73% UM) | 22 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 66 | 7 | Stanford (8% UM) | 12 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 1 | PSU (56% UM) | 18 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader, i.e. >50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
Please refer to mgoblog 16 'crootin board for other detail.
Quick comments
- Still amazing we are going to have a class that projects to have 0 guys from OH. Obviously not a long term plan but that is the way the cookie crumbled this year.
- Southern exposure is obviously huge vs Hoke's classes.
- The most variability these next few months will lay in the back 7 of the defense - which is also the potentially most urgent part of the class as we lose almost everyone in the 2 deep in the back 7 post 2016.
- Terrance Davis & Jonathan Jones are this year's recipients of "gonna commit any day now" long term near commits who probably don't end up in the class if history is any guide.
- Connor Murphy made the largest jump (about 100 spots) of anyone on this list since the July version.
October 28th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
no matter how big i make my screen your table overlaps with the side bar on chrome on these posts.
Nice job though, thanks
October 28th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
Yep this one has many columns and I don't know how the guys on the front page (read: Seth) make embedded columns that have a scrolling feature for excel tables. Maybe it is not possible in MGoBoard and only can be done on front page. I've asked a few times for instruction on how to do it. :D
October 28th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
Copy and pasting to word worked for me...
October 28th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^
Can confirm; using two monitors at work, and still the same (the blue margins just expand). But at least the tables are visible rather than being weirdly entwined.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
A "damn cool" final 8 to this class (assuming we have 8 spots) that is somewhat realistic would be:
- Gary
- Walker
- Crawford
- π
- Bush Jr
- Kemp
- Hill
- Long
Still would need a safety somewhere. And find a spot for Nordin if possible.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^
Are Metellus and Gil not projected at safety in college?
October 28th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
No they are but I have a suspicion one or both are grayshirts and may or may not end up in the class based on how Harbaugh did things at Stanford. These are both guys either at the edge or completely outside 247's top 1000 players.
Pure speculation on my part.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
I see. Would that effect Bush Jr's decision? Weren't they supposed to be one of the "packaged" deals?
October 28th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
I am not a big believer in "packages"
Those 2 have been committed for many months so if Bush Jr was deciding based mostly on that he would have committed months ago.
Corley and Hill supposedly want to be a package but one commited to PSU and might flip to UM and most think Corley is going to MSU.
Crawford was going to be a package with KJ Costello but they seem to be headed in diff directions etc.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
a greyshirt offer.
Sam Webb said on the day of Metellus' commitment, that he may become a greyshirt. Obviously that will depend on how the class finishes, but they make the need for a safety less. Webb also said Lamar Jackson was told they're looking at him as a possible CB. He seems to be the only safety prospect still on the board. Perhaps that's the most likely destination for Enis.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
Enis is interesting as he puts up video game #s in HS so you hope that translates to college (dont know if his calibar of competition is any good in Indiana). But he seems like a guy who could play on either side of the ball for sure.
I also though Cole might become a S in the '15 class but they seem intent on having him be a receiver. Whatever the case we are in dire need of safeties post 2016 - Kinnel is really the only one that seems like a sure thing and many speculate that he is going to be more of a Peppers role at nickel in a 4-2-5. Assuming two guys ranked 1000 or worse can be our starting safeties or "primary backup" as rs fr in 2017 - well it would be interesting if that happened.
These next few months determine a ton about the viability of our back 7 in 2017 as a lot of these kids will be starters or "1 injury away from starter" within a year of getting to campus.
October 28th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
He plays in a division for small schools. We're going to have a lot of recruits coming in who can play multiple positions. That adds a lot of flexibility in filling out recruiting classes. It sure doesn't look like we're making safety a priority to finish this class. Whatever the rankings say, I'll assume the coaches like what they see from the current commits.
Kinnel isn't going to start off in Peppers' role. He should contend for a starting job next season.
October 28th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
Mesmerizing, disturbing and I love it
October 28th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
What about under flips the kicker Quinn Nordin?
October 28th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
Would this have been better as a diary post? The tables formatting looks weird since, for me at least, it is blocked partially by an ad and it also covers some of the links on the right bar (whether posts or board threads). I think that there is a lot of valuable recruiting content in this thread, but it feels like it is not displayed the best it could, given board limitations.
With regards to specific players, I really want Connor Murphy, more than some on the board have expressed. I love the idea of having a 6-7 guy on the line that can be disruptive to opposing passing games with his length. Also, there's pedigree. I guess Connor Murphy is my "guy" in this round of recruiting.
October 28th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^
Thought this would be about fullback recruiting. I am disappoint.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
is from FL. He was a teammate of Reuben Jones.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
Another change: it's Shyheim Carter not Shymein Carter
Edit: and according to 247 at least, Shyheim is from Louisiana not Georgia.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^
Thx fixed.
I typod his name and the state was because I copied and pasted Hardman's row in Excel and neglected to change the state.
October 29th, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^
Still wrong :/ now it says Shyhein instead of Shyheim
October 28th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
I thought we had a chance at Nauta? If he's 80/20 to UGA or FSU, that, uh... hmm...
October 28th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^
Meh those are crystal ballz and they won't update immediately. Until 10 days ago we didn't really seem to be in the picture.
He is a GA kid who most everyone nationally thinks is going to GA. Webb thinks we have a fighting chance but it will probably take more to convince others to change their pick. GA is the "no brainer" safe pick.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
Jordan Elliot has to have some % for Michigan since he practically named us a leader not many days ago.
Sam Webb's comments this a.m. seemed to indicate Michigan's chances with Caleb Kelly to be more than 5%.
Same thing with Lamar Jackson and David Long. Webb seemed to think Michigan has some decent chance with both, but probably more with Long.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
If Player A has a 60% chance to go to School X and 40% chance to go to School Y, everyone who makes a prediction should put School X. The CBs could show 100% School X, 30 predictions, but that doesn't mean everyone else is out of it. The percentages do not show the chances that people think a recruit ends up at a school, but rather the percentage of analysts that think there is a 51+% chance that the recruit ends up at a school.
October 28th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
So it's basically MetaCritic vs Rotten Tomatoes.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
Putting my prediction down along with the confidence interval (1-3). Note that there is NO scientific basis to this whatsoever, but I want to put it down somewhere so I can score myself:
Remaining 8 spots:
-Rashan Gary (3)
-Dylan Crawford (2)
-Pie Young (3)
-Jacob Mathis (1)
-Connor Murphy (2)
-Lavert Hill (2)
-Quinn Nordin (2)
-Offensive Lineman TBD (I don't think Davis or Valentin comes)
Flip picks always make me nervous. I think because we've been burned so often in the past couple years.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
You didn't say if 1 or 3 was your highest confidence.
Yes we seem to be slow playing Mathis with the idea Nauta is a real possibility. But considering Mathis has UF in is back pocket that's dangerous too.
We need Walker now because Falcon was our "speed" back and we are right back to not having a speed back yet again. Higdon /Drake are only 2 guys on roster and I am not clear Higdon is 'fast' but seems more quick and shifty. We need a better mix of power and speed. (Elliott) Walker is not a pure burner but compared to our roster of backs would be fast.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
Three means high confidence, one is low confidence. Can't edit it now, but yeah.
I didn't include Walker because I haven't seen anything since the initial media frenzy to suggest that he is leaving OSU. I agree that having another RB would be very good, but I don't see who it would be right now.
Some of the guys on my list could easily be replaced by "TBDs" -- i.e. guys that Harbaugh grabs out of nowhere, like he did with Benjamin St. Juste.
EDIT: FYI - Jonathon Jones has been getting some Michigan crystal balls over the last couple weeks, and Wiltfong is cloudy. Something might be brewing there.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
he sticks at RB, which is obviously not a sure thing.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
I'll throw my hat in the ring as well...I dunno, seems like a reasonable ending to the class, but I don't think we're done at LB at all. At least I hope we're not. Assuming the class goes to 28 and 1-2 de-commits, we have 9-10 spots left. From the remaining targets, it seems we're looking at 3-4 offensive spots and 6 or so defensive spots. 1-3 greyshirts could open up additional spots as well I suppose. 9 spots for 9 recruits you say?
-Eddie McDoom, WR (sounds like things with Corley aren't great, McDoom looks pretty athletic in and out of his routes and seems to be what we're missing, like him more than Pie and Crawford. Plus that name.)
- TE not named Nauta or Mathis (would love to see Nauta in the Maize and Blue, just both of these are going to be tough pulls).
- RASHAN, DL
- Connor Murphy, DL
- Devis Bush, LB
- J Jones, LB
- Lavert, CB (James Franklin could be in line for second helpings of snake oil if Nordin pulls the trigger too)
- DB...1 of David Long, L. Jackson, J. Fuller.
- Best Player Available: Terrance Davis/generic OL/Kareem Walker or other RB/Buck LB
Trying not to be too optimistic with the above as we all tend to get w/r/t our chances with top recruits, hence the low confidence in pulling Nauta or Mathis (or Kareem Walker or Jean Delance for that matter). I don't think that finish on defense is out of the question however. Insiders seem to be quite bullish on our chances with Murphy, Bush and Jones and we all know where things stand with Rashan and Lavert. No idea how the staff gets to 85 scholarships if they plan to get 28 'croots, but that's why Jimmy gets paid the big bucks. Feel free to tee off on the above if you disagree.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
So difficult to know the minds of these kids. Hopefully, we keep winning and they want to be a part of it. Great things are coming and I hope they want to be in Maize and Blue. If not, good luck to them. What's the line? We're gonna win with or without you!
October 28th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
Update: Jonathon Jones is now at 78% for Michigan. Another Ball this morning from a Notre Dame analyst. Hmmm.
October 28th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
He was at 100% UM for about 6 months fwiw.
This guy's process has been so long it will be a shock when he commits anywhere. Same for Davis!
October 28th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
I know, but based on the Balls, the analysts seem to think he's trending back toward us (the Notre Dame one intrigues me). That's unlike Davis, whose last Ball was nearly 3 months ago.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
If we finish strong, and other teams in the race for some of these guys implode (like we did the last two years), I can see some of the top guys falling to Michigan for a change. If we stumble, that takes some of the shine off the team, and it'll be like the last two years. So just win the next game, and then the next, and then . . .
October 28th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
I feel like I've seen this Rashan Gary movie before and already know how it ends.
October 28th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
October 28th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
I know how they used to end before we got Harbaugh.