Enter the NBA or stay in School? What's the data...
[ed-S: bumped to diary]
Every year we see the "talent-drain" occur in college basketball where the best players make themselves eligible for the NBA draft. With the <grimace> thought that there is the possibility of losing Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, and McGary I did a search (albeit a quick one) of the data regarding entering the NBA after 1 or 2 seasons. Is it worth the risk? Well here's what I've come up with.
* The majority of this information comes from "Weakside Awareness" and "Basketball-Reference.com"
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
How many players are in the NBA? ~360-450 (max).
30 teams in the NBA. Each roster can have a maximum of 15 players with a usual minimum of 12 (teams are allowed to have as few as 8 players). So, at any given time there are between 360-450 players in the NBA.
How many players retire/go unsigned/or otherwise leave the NBA yearly?
Very difficult to identify, but math tells us it should be roughly equal to the number of draftees that are signed.
How many players enter the draft?
Roughly 60 players. Of course, a draft only gives a team the OPTION of signing that particular player. However, they still tryout for the team and may go UNsigned prior to the season starting if they don't make the grade. I could not find data to show me the average number of draftees who were NOT signed by their drafting franchise.
What is the average length of career for an NBA player? (Weakside did a great eval on this at http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/average-nba-career-length-for-players-details/)
If averaged from the start - 1947, it comes out to 4.86 seasons per player. However, in the last decade, this has increased (due in part to more positions due to expansion). Either way, it's not a long-term career.
Interestingly, Weakside broke this down by number of minutes played and height. Obviously, the more minutes you play, the longer you are kept around. The taller you are, the longer your career.
Minutes - < 12min a game: 2 seasons, > 30min a game: 10.88 seasons.
Height - > 7 feet: 5.78 season, < 6'2": 4.12 seasons.
What financial impact do we see?
(Good article from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/28/the-structure-of-nba-rookie-contracts/)
The initial term of an NBA rookie contract is 2 years with a 3rd year option. Agents don't have much leverage in negotiating a rookie's contract as the NBA has a "rookie salary scale." For players from the 2012 Draft, this scales from the #1 pick to the #30 pick as follows (Col 1:Draft pick, Col 2: 2012-13 Season, Col 3: 2013-14, Col 4: 2014-15):
| 1 | $4,286,900.00 | $4,479,800.00 | $4,672,700.00 |
| 30 | $850,800.00 | $889,100.00 | $927,400.00 |
The collective bargaining agreement states that a player may make between 80%-120% of this scaled salary amount based on their lottery pick. This variable is where the agent is important, particularly for the mid-range draft picks to get closer to the 120% rather than the 80%.
Despite this large up front amount, the data post-career is alarming. According to a report in 2008 from the NBA Player's Association, 60% of players are broke by 5 years post-retirement. This usually stems from having to pay for things you bought/made while you were still making the dough (ie houses, kids, divorces).
BOTTOM LINE
So, is it worth it? Does a college degree prevent the financial collapse? Is the upfront signing guarantee worth it? Does the answer even exist? Tim Duncan stuck around for 4 years, but would he have had the same longevity if he left after year 2?
I think a diary by the Mathlete is in order. Let's discuss!
April 10th, 2013 at 11:20 AM ^
April 10th, 2013 at 11:23 AM ^
"Is it better to be taller or shorter if you're a basketball player and are thinking about declaring for the draft?"
April 10th, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^
I think if you're going to be a top 15 pick, then yes, its probably worth it because you're getting that rookie contract with the guaranteed money that comes with it. But if you're in the bottom half of the first round, then no, its not worth it because you could easily slide into the second round and be out of the league quickly, no guaranteed money, and be left with a career floating around Europe.
Plus, if you go at the end of the 1st round, you can have a D. Morris situation where you go to a good team and sit on the bench with limited opportunities to crack the starting lineup. Stay in school, work on your game, and enter the league in a situation where you have a better shot of getting a lot of playing time to showcase yourself for that second contract.
He's actually had every opportunity to establish a role with the Lakers (injury to Nash, injuries to/horribleness of Blake and Duhon), but he's been pretty bad offensively in all the minutes he's gotten. Granted, part of that might be the system he's in, but he just hasn't looked like an NBA point guard, and I'm not sure that additional time in college would have changed that.
Darius's NBA stats:
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Career Season Averages
|
 |
| Year | Team | G | GS | MPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | OFF | DEF | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO | PF | PPG |
| 11-12 | LAL | 19 | 0 | 8.9 | 0.429 | 0.444 | 0.667 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 2.4 |
| 12-13 | LAL | 46 | 17 | 14.1 | 0.389 | 0.365 | 0.649 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 4.1 |
| Career | -- | 65 | 17 | 12.6 | 0.396 | 0.375 | 0.652 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 3.6 |
This year he's averaging <40% from the floor and about 4 PPG. Gotta wonder whether the Lakers will resign him.
And the point is that he was a great college PG. So take note, all you Kobe-wannabes: as good as you were in college, you might not make it in the pros.
April 10th, 2013 at 11:31 AM ^
April 10th, 2013 at 12:02 PM ^
April 10th, 2013 at 11:34 AM ^
I am interested in one particular piece you mentioned. Is there any correlation between time spent in college before turning pro and likelihood of 'going broke' at some point. Would be interesting to see.
April 10th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^
Sometimes stupid people are going to do stupid things. I'd argue that people who aren't smart are more likely to not enjoy college, therefore are more likely to leave early. The correlation probably exists but may not be meaningful.
Trey Burke - not stupid. If he goes pro early, or doesn't, I find it highly unlikely that his liklihood of going broke is affected.
/no bias
This had to be added because no UM fan thought C-Webb was stupid at the time.
And also because . . . We all have bias.
Cheater =/= stupid
April 10th, 2013 at 11:34 AM ^
28th of April
April 10th, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^
For most NBA-caliber kids it is financially the right call - those are prime earning years, you enter free agency sooner, and you are paid for more years of work - and you can always go back to school after your basketball career is complete as long as you are not stupid with money. However, there are some kids who are late first rounders that have a good chance of going into the lottery if they improve. Those kids have financial incentive to stick around since The contract structure is top heavy [ if you're a good enough player, there's no major difference in getting drafted 16th or 56th, there IS a significant benefit to going 4th instead of 16th.]
That's the financial perspective. The personal perspective varies - some kids love college life, don't mind class, are happy, etc. Others feel exploited, need to provide for families, don't enjoy the culture, etc. No way to quantify that personal side.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:11 PM ^
Jason King has U of M out of the top 25 next year. He thinks all four of Michigan's NBA prospects will leave. Meanwhile, he has MSU keeping everyone and ranked #3. Michigan State fan?
are all projected higher in the draft than any of the state players except maybe harris who from that summary seems like he and THJ are projected about the same. why would you jump to the NBA if you were a second round pick and still had eligibility? seems like more common sense than any sort of sparty homerism.
April 14th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^
If your ceiling is no higher than the 2nd round based on circumstances you can't change, why not leave? Ex: Deshaun Thomas.
Out of the 27 underclassmen who have already declared, 15 are expected to go in the 2nd round or be undrafted.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:12 PM ^
Considering that all professional athletes are broke within 10 years of retirement, though, I personally believe that free school is more of an investment than 5 years in the NBA. People say that higher education isn't going anywhere, but I say that the NBA isn't going anywhere either, and only one of them has a lifelong return investment. If a player is good enough to get drafted now, he will be good enough later. Plus, you only get to play in college once. After 10 years, NBA careers, and scandals, the Fab Five unites because of their college years, not because of what they did in their professional careers.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
If your Master's thesis involves stating that all professional athletes are broke within 10 years of retirement, I'd be more worried about you finishing your college career.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^
But I'm always that guy when it comes to Data.
Give me it, let me analize it, let me make my own conclusions.
P.S. I hope you're right and correct; I just wantz da data! /tryin' to be hip
Thank you for that catch. I meant to say over 50%. Now, this applies to athletes of the Big 4 sports, I won't speculate on smaller sports.
I thought this applied specifically to the NBA. Have the other leagues have released data like this?
April 10th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
April 10th, 2013 at 12:37 PM ^
Skipping out on a year of earning millions at the age of 20 is probably never the right call finacially. It will take the average college grad 10-30 years to earn the salary from the first year of a lottery pick's career.
If you have the ability to manage your money or hire someone else who can(IE not a childhood friend, most of the NBAs problems are the entourages of people they are supporting) then going pro as soon as you a lock to be a lottery pick is the right call.
LeBron James is probably going to come damn close to earning a billion with endorsements included by the time he leaves the league. There was no reason for him to go to college, and there is no reason for anyone who will be drafted in the top 15 to stay in college, unless they are happier in college than playing professionally. There is nothing left to prove.
I find faults in it, dawg.
First, you are more likely to be drafted if you play in the US because DURR (if you make the tourney, watch yo' draft stock go up, a la McGary)
Secondly, If you play in Europe, you are FARTHER away from your family.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:36 PM ^
Very nicely stated. I spent my entire life getting to my current job. But, it's still just a job. If the players were capped at 100k a year, would they still jump to the NBA after 1 or 2 years? Probably not. There are many things in life worth more than money, and your years in college are a great example.
Looking forward to a mega-diary entry by you on this topic somewhere down the road! Or at least point us to a link of your thesis or published work (if you're willing to sacrifice your anonymity).
laying, has to be part of our analysis here, right? Wonder how many kids do get injured. I also think that the opportunity to get their parents out of financial difficulty may loom very large for a certain percentage of kids but be extremely difficult to control for as a variable.
Also--intelligence may not be the issue with a hasty or bad decision. The world is full of smart people who do idiot things.
April 11th, 2013 at 12:14 AM ^
i haz diary. i though it was getting a bit long, but i was between patients and watching my own patience (see what i did there?) on draft talk was wearing thin.
See:
Peter A. Groothuis, James Richard Hill, and Timothy J. Perri, “Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital, and Option Value,” Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, Vol. 8
According to SI:
• By the time they have been retired for two years, 78% of former NFL players have gone bankrupt or are under financial stress because of joblessness or divorce.
• Within five years of retirement, an estimated 60% of former NBA players are broke.
Stay in school!
Amen.
Trey listening?
about how to handle your finances. If you think that's what Trey has been doing the last two years, or that it can't be acquired from good counsel in the NBA (for example). . . My father-in-law teaches commercial real estate courses that sometimes feature NFL athletes; they last a week.
No, it assumes that being two to four years older will make you smarter about your finances, which I think is a fairly safe assumption. Also you will have that degree to fall back on, people always say 'you can always go back,' but how are you going to afford $30k a year for tuition if you're now broke? And my other point was that the only people who are financially worse off by not going pro at the earliest opportunity are the superstars with 10+ year careers, and at that point does it really matter if you have 600 million compared to 500 million? Isn't hedging your bets more important?
I think the bigger benefit to staying in school is that the player gets closer to graduation. Of course, he can come back later, but a lot of these guys aren't very academically-minded and the thought of making up all those courses can be daunting. Also, if they come back later they won't get the same kind of academic support they receive when they're on scholarship - and they'll have to pay to go to school.
April 11th, 2013 at 12:21 AM ^
In many projections, the lottery picks are all freshmen or sophomores. If a player is a consensus lottery pick as a freshman or sophomore, they almost have to go.
There are two main problems facing players in the draft. First of all, it's difficult to get a fully-accurate projection for all but maybe the top five or six players. This would seem to indicate that it's wiser to stay. However, players who stay past their sophomore years seem to be stigmatized, and fall into the second round if they are even drafted.
The sophomore year is beginning to look like the last year a certain first round NBA pick should stay in school. The snag is being able to figure out who is a "certain" pick, and who is getting lied to by GM's who want them to be available "just in case," or to bring in as a UFA.
Here is one problem of declaring early when not ready. The NBA is an 82 game season with 41 road games. That means a number of travel days. Good teams might play 10-20 more games in the playoffs. The way you get better is playing against your peers not sitting on the bench for 120 days.
A player like Burke is going to get minutes and he has been the focus of an offense. A player like Robinson III or McGary is not. They will sit and not get better unless a coach wishes to sacrifice his job to develop them at the sacrifice of winning. Both of these two in my opinion have a higher development curve in college because they will be the focus of next years offense and have an opportunity to test what they practice in real games. Even if their draft stock does not change much the opportunity of a longer career is greater because they have developed skills that can only happen under durress and reality.
The exception is a player who knows in their heart they do not have it. If they know their ceiling is low despite the appearances of atheletic potential, it is better to take the contract now. If your a Kwame Brown clone, you do not want the NBA to observe you after you have developed. You want to get in the NBA ASAP. Then you can make bigger money on potential before the NBA figures out you do not have game.
All college degrees are not created equal, especially for athletes across DI hoop programs.
Is that underwater basket weaving degree worth, how many NBA years? Not sure how you can account for the actual value of the different degrees as a variable.
There was a recent post on all the UM grads playing in Europe. Young, traveling, making good money. And with a degree.
Agents have little to lose by pushing players to declare. There are only the 60 guys who get drafted, the agent get better odds of having a client drafted if he gets 20 to jump than 10, and ten is better than five.
But if 120 declare, or 60, only 60 are getting drafted, so the risk is on the players' side, and the advice comes from the guy with no financial risk.
It is very difficult not to believe someone telling you how good you are, at something you have worked all your life to be good at.
The main value of the degree is that it's a degree. Many jobs literally aren't open to non-college graduates. This is true for virtually all coaching positions in college.
Also, don't assume that because a guy is playing basketball overseas that he's making "good money." Many are not.
All college degrees are not created equal, especially for athletes across DI hoop programs.
Is that underwater basket weaving degree worth, how many NBA years? Not sure how you can account for the actual value of the different degrees as a variable.
There was a recent post on all the UM grads playing in Europe. Young, traveling, making good money. And with a degree.
Agents have little to lose by pushing players to declare. There are only the 60 guys who get drafted, the agent get better odds of having a client drafted if he gets 20 to jump than 10, and ten is better than five.
But if 120 declare, or 60, only 60 are getting drafted, so the risk is on the players' side, and the advice comes from the guy with no financial risk.
It is very difficult not to believe someone telling you how good you are, at something you have worked all your life to be good at.
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