Can Michigan Expect Another Major Improvement on Offense in 2010?

...especially the fact that UCONN...

Teams fitting this profile for a potential second year of strong offensive progress in 2010 along with Michigan include Kentucky, UConn, Wake Forest and Mississippi St.

...shares Michigan's scoring progression profile. Two teams looking to make big strides in 2010 meeting on the historic day when Michigan Stadium is rededicated. Should be epic.

Tate should be much healthier.
Denard should be much better.
The O-line should be much more solid (Molk) and settled.
The tight ends are the same or better.
The wideouts have a lot more experience and a year's growth behind them (as well as an expanded and more internally competitive group).
The "running back position" can't be any worse than last year (due to unfortunate strings of injuries to guys like Minor and Brown who worked their butts off but were hobbled much of theyear).
One more year of overall team development with RR and Magee.

How can all of that not translate into "improvement"?

I haven't been following your posts closely, but how do your offensive ratings deal with the Delaware St. game? How does your analysis change if Baby Seal U is removed from Michigan's statistics?

My math shows that Michigan averages over 3 fewer points per game if you remove this game from the schedule.

I know you were looking for more diary topics. Another similar one that you could do would be defensive efficiency from year one to year two in a system. You could also look at efficiency vs. returning starters. It would be interesting to see what to expect out of our defense next year and it would go hand-in-hand with MCaliber's diary where he speculates the number of wins based on the offensive and defensive YPG.

This analysis is just awesome. Are you planning on doing a similar analysis of the defense (perhaps an analysis that makes us all a bit les scared about the defense this season)?

I may be in the minority here but I don't think any kind of statistical analysis of 2008/2009 is relevant for 2010.

2008 is a complete throw away year. We all know that QB play is 90% of RR's system and 2008's two QBs are no longer on the Michigan roster. Therefore 2008 stats are completely meaningless and there is almost no carry-over from that season to 2010 except for a few OL and a WR or two.

2009 has some relevancy for 2010 but the way things are going (Tate not improving apparently and DR improving greatly) I just don't think 2009 is all that relevant to what we should see this fall.

If anything year 3 should improve over the past from an intangibles standpoint. Returning players understand the system better, coaches have a better understanding of what works against which defenses, etc.

Your statistical analysis is great and relevant generally but I think in this case it's not a useful prediction tool for 2010's offensive success.

I was thinking about the loss of Brown and Minor the other day and wanted to get a sense of what we had coming back in the ground game and then got carried away and looked up the numbers for every phase of the offense. So here are the rough totals for what we have returning as far as career stats go:

Rushing: 1,400+ yards and 15 TD
Receiving: 2,500+ yards and 18 TD
Passing: 2,200+ yards and 15 TD

You can also throw in two return game touchdowns from Stonum/Odoms.

Seems like a decent amount of production but I wonder where it would fall nationally and if that means anything as a predictor of future success. The best part going forward is that none of that production graduates this year except for Moundros and Webb, so barring early departures the 2011 offense should be loaded with returning talent/production.

I expect us to jump up in the top 25 for total offense this year. I just feel we have the talent for that to happen.

The conventional wisdom in college football is that teams regress, not to the mean, but to their historical norm—whatever that is.

If Northwestern leads the Big Ten in offense next year, it’s an improvement far less likely to be sustained than if Michigan does it, simply because Northwestern is historically below average, and Michigan is not.

One could give endless examples. Florida State and Michigan State were both mediocre last year. If you had to bet on a team getting better next year, you’d pick the Seminoles, because FSU has a long history of sustained excellence (albeit not the last few seasons), and the Spartans do not.

So it would be interesting to see the patterns when you compare teams, not to the NCAA Mean, but their own mean. An average year for Michigan and an average year for Michigan State are very different things.

I'm not sure if it'll be a major improvement but I'd like to think there will be a pretty nice improvement.

UM's offense was much better in the non-conference games in 2009 then in 2008 even when you exclude Baby Seal U. However, in 2009 UM ranked in the lower half of the big 10, if not very close to the bottom of the big 10, in just about all offensive statistical catagories. I'd like to think that UM's offense will be improved enough so that UM's offense will statistical be in the top half of some offensive catagories in 2010, and not close to the bottom in any.

will help too.

National Rankings (Michigan offense):
2009 - 41st and 29.5 ppg
2008 - 101st and 20.25 ppg

National Rankings (Michigan defense)
2009 - 72nd and 27.5 ppg
2008 - 84th and 28.92 ppg in 2008

The defense was actually slightly better from a points allowed standpoint in 2009. That was not what I expected. But before you get too excited...

Big Ten Rankings (Michigan offense):
2009 - 9th and 22.1 ppg (-7.4 ppg from total 2009)
2008 - DFL (11th) and 20.2 ppg

Big Ten Rankings (Michigan defense):
2009 - DFL and 33.2 ppg
2008 - 10th and 28.9 ppg

I put more stock in the Big 11 numbers just because it is closer to an apples-to-apples comparison year over year. By that measure, from a scoring/stats perspective, 2009 was really no better than 2008 if you believe that "better" means not in the bottom 3 in the league in both offense and defense. Of course, we also had 2 B11 wins in 2008 versus only 1 in 2009.

In terms of expectations, it is very hard to believe that we could go from essentially last in the conference two years running (in total) to anything higher than 6th or 7th in 2010.

...may be an optimist, but I don't even think he foresees another 57-spot jump in the rankings from our 50th place finish last year.

With the eye of Sauron, (NCAA) firmly on RR and Michigan, my only concern is how much extra practice time we're gonna miss from last year!

Just sayin...

Great analysis. Keep up the great work.

Michigan is still a very young team on both sides of the ball. By year 3 of the new football program, offensive system, workout regimen, practice regimen, etc., one would expect a much more smooth offensive showing.  Their were bright moments last fall, but it was still choppy with injuries and inconsistent play.  I would expect things should be more consistent, sure and smooth in 2010 at QB, WR and OL.  Michigan is going to continue to run the ball well, I think.  But godamn, Michigan remains one of the youngest teams in the country.

another huge reason why huge improvement is possible - turnovers.  If these guys can stop killing drives by not hanging onto the ball, they should improve by a few points a game on average.

Having a player with talent who is running the system for the second year will provide the biggest lift. I'm worried as hell about the D, but I expect the offense to be closer to the six points better this year.

RR hasn't been here 3 years

Some comments.

UM 2008 offense was historically awful. No matter what is said about attrition and talent level, there was enough there NOT to lead the nation in 3 and outs. Choosing Sheridan and McGuffie to lead the offense and putting the square peg Threet into the round hold offense was...uh...stupid. But that's over.

Now, in 2009, we did improve. If you look a little closer, against teams we played that had a pulse (ie big ten conference), we actually scored  about the same number of PPG. Thank Delaware HS for beefing up the stats.

In 2010, I expect a "real" improvement on offense. We've consistently outrecruited every team in the big ten (sans OSU, and it's close) and have plenty of returning players. This will be an exciting team to watch for sure.