The coaches thought Quentin Johnson was essentially near on-par with the other 2 safeties and a level above Keon Sabb. Johnson got more snaps than Paige against Alabama. Johnson took all of Sabb's snaps against Ohio State
We are talking about one of the best pass defenses in college football history, and QJ was a starter-equivalent on it.
I've been reading MGoBlog since my senior year of high school (2003-04), met Brian way back when in 2004 or so when I was a freshman living in South Quad, and recently returned to Ann Arbor. I have now read MGoBlog every day for 2+ decades, yet overall it has been a pretty dark 20 years of football. But Blake brought us home!
The status quo is that men’s football subsidizes non-revenue sports. This is effectively a redistribution of value from football players (generally less well off) to non-revenue athletes (generally more well off). Most theories of justice would call this status quo unfair.
This is a smart take. SP+ and FEI are great since they are tempo adjusted but, in truth, the change in win probability is a better proxy for the real outcome of interest (i.e., winning) than adjusted points per play or per drive.
I am not convinced this OSU scheme explains the lack of JJ runs. As Brian often argues, I think you need to establish at least 1 keep early in the game. Moreover, they clearly were okay with Orji running the ball. Sam Webb's explanation of a JJ injury is more persuasive to me. In general, I think our offense was pretty predictable.
JJ is either hurt or the coaches are insane. The OSU linebackers and edges were able to key in run vs pass all day. They were not put in conflict and did not respect JJ keep reads. For now though we must celebrate this stupendous victory and defer the quibbles!
If there is evidence that OSU is connected to the private investigation, I think this would be a story as juicy as Connor Stalions-gate because it would potentially destabilize the future of the Big Ten. You can already see how angry the regents are by the tweet from Jordan Acker as well as Sarah Hubbard. So this is why I'm confused the media haven't been able to figure it out.
What is truly extraordinary is that we are a month into this saga and there still is no publicly released evidence about who financed and implemented this private investigation. Given the constant leaks in every other aspect of this story... I just don't understand. What is going on?!
[T]here are no known connections between Ohio State head coach Ryan Day or his family and the conference's investigation into Michigan.
What is left unsaid here?
What does known connections mean? What has been done to investigate this link?
Are there connections between Ohio State and the private investigator that do not involve Ryan Day?
Is it plausible that Ohio State is not involved if insiders knew about this weeks ahead of the NCAA?
Thamel's article is bad because, like everything else he has written, he simply reports whatever he is leaked from OSU/NCAA without any further engagement. What he is doing is closer to PR than journalism.
Many posters and Brian have argued that, if there is a unilateral Big Ten suspension, then U-M should take it's ball and go home -- to the SEC.
Of course, this would never happen for so many historical, financial, and institutional reasons.
Howeva, you have to wonder if a suspension would be the catalyst in U-M playing hardball with the Big Ten in future contract negotiations. Why should U-M continue to agree to equal TV payouts when it is one of the big rainmakers?
The Big Ten has more power than the NCAA because of TV money. But ultimately, the Big Ten has TV money because of U-M (and OSU). U-M has the upper hand.
Football players now have market power to search for better wages. This is how a functioning labor market is supposed to work in a free-market society. College football programs are really no different than any other profit-seeking firm and we need to remember this.
1. Craig is correct that non-insiders lack complete information and should really hold back the hot takes.
2. Brian wanted to fire Harbaugh after the COVID year. Thus, Brian lacks credibility in his criticism of Warde Manuel renegotiating Harbaugh's contract at that time.
This is not the right way to think about any type of scoring system. The purpose of such systems is to provide predictive information for a given outcome. In medical research (which I do), this means predicting a clinical event like a heart attack. In college football, this means predicting when plays will have net positive benefits (i.e. yards gained which is itself predictive of scoring points which is predictive of winning games). MGoBlog's scoring is clearly a better tool than PFF at predicting the relevant outcome.
I bicycle to work in a large Midwestern City. When I turn or cross an intersection, I have to make eye contact with drivers to make sure they see me. I see multiple drivers texting and not looking up each day. It is extremely dangerous and I think our society needs to hold these drivers accountable just like with DWIs.
I suspect that in the future, we will look back on this era and wonder how we ever tolerated drivers to text -- just like now we look back at the past and wonder how we condoned drinking and driving.
At the same time, would be interested to do a SportsVU-style sophisticated analysis to see how open U-M's opponents have been on their shots. I would guess it would show that this streak is just bad luck.
There will be regression to the mean. Along with death and taxes, the law of large numbers always prevails.
It's not just HBS and the athletic facilities. The medical school (and most affiliated hospitals), dental school, public health school, and much of the new engineering school are all in Boston too.
The NBA highly values youth because they believe they can develop players better than college teams.
That is to say, a third year of school likely would have brought down GRIII's stock. Just like a second year did. There is opportunity cost in staying in school.
I know it's in your interest as a U-M fan to have players like GRIII stay, but try to take a more rational approach to the risks and benefits that players like him confront.
Why? So you could benefit from watching him play for free?
This line of logic is so old and weak.
The truth is that, all things being equal, young players tend to develop better in the NBA than in college. They also get to their second contract quicker. So, if anything, GRIII should have gone after his freshman year.
As a former Michigan Daily columnist and current national political pundit who often discusses Michigan football, I'm not sure how OT anything by Jon Chait is but in any case I thought this would be of interest.
I agree with Dr. Explosion that if this team is winning, all of the offenses of the Brandon regime are tolerated. That doesn't mean that we minimize the offenses; it just means that winning is an overpowering elixir.
You should make a quick chart a la UMHoops of all the freshman point guards with KenPom ORtg and %Poss on the two axes. That would be the single best way to compare Waltons performance. I would include only those with minimum, say, 25% of minutes.
I like how you make fun of people who misuse statistics then do the exact same thing yourself:
"Through 20 games Burke has shown he can't shoot, is not a good defender, and is injury prone, but I'm not willing to sell him down the river just yet."
All three of these statements are incorrect or easily contestable.
1. "Through 20 games" -> He's played 8 games, not 20.
2. "Can't shoot" -> Burke has shot 40% on 100 field goals, 40 of which are 3FGA (and shooting it at 42%). His eFG% is 47%.
3. "Injury prone" -> Burke has had 1 injury and missed 12 games. Hardly enough to already call him injury prone.
Think a little more next time.
This is not quite an "I'd let him date my daughter" quote, but I assume that's because his coach only has sons.
Hey, careful with the assumptions. You never know, perhaps one day we'll hear a high school football coach say something like: "I'd let this young man date my son."
Get off your high horse a bit. I don't think the purported "academic superiority" actually makes that much of a difference in the end, especially as most kids -- even at U-M -- major in the sports disciplines.
Love the old recruiting board. Glad you're bringing it back, Brian. I think you had it in the Blogspot phase, no? Many ppl will not know the long, illustrious history of the board.
I think Darius's decision was actually a smart one. Please don't disparage him by calling him not an "actual NBA prospect" when he's been in the league for 2 years now. He's already proven he was an NBA prospect. Keep in mind that Darius Morris made about $1,000,000 over the past 2 years.
I hate that this thread exists. There is no question that he deserves his number retired. He's the best MIchigan player in 20 years.
Geesh, the effrontery to suggest that he has to stay four years to "earn" such an honor is pretty mind-blowing. He was an awesome player and an awesome representative of the program. Now he's going to get paid. Good for him.
Only need to look at the Manny Harris model to see how important it is to develop your skills before you get to the bigs.
Sorry dude, people say this a lot and it's pretty ignorant.
Actually, Manny's decision did work out pretty well for him. He got the chance to audition for multiple seasons in the NBA, made NBA-money for 2 years, and got the chance to work on his game for a full year when he would have had to invest time in classes.
Just because he didn't make an NBA roster for 10 years doesn't mean his decision was a bad one.
I too worship at the throne of KenPom, but Florida simply does not pass the sanity check for me of a dominant #1 overall seed. Vegas appears to agree with me to an extent and gives Michigan 2.5-3 points compared to KenPom's 5. In terms of probabilities, Vegas thus gives us something like a 40% chance of winning.
Not tempting KenPom deity, but, in the end, it's just a model!
No doubt the dude's got game and would get minutes even in our backcourt.
HOWEVA, I was surprised how little lift he had on his jumper. The key will be stopping him from getting his shots off; if he does, he can obviously fill it.
Also, will he guard Burke? No chance in hell he can stay in front of him.
Recent Comments
Have some respect dude.
The coaches thought Quentin Johnson was essentially near on-par with the other 2 safeties and a level above Keon Sabb. Johnson got more snaps than Paige against Alabama. Johnson took all of Sabb's snaps against Ohio State
We are talking about one of the best pass defenses in college football history, and QJ was a starter-equivalent on it.
Can anyone fill me in on the latest with Quinten Johnson?
I had thought he had declared and was gone for good. Apparently not the case?
I couldn't find any news searching around the blog or the Google.
An…
"Bring us home, Blake."
An epic summation of that moment.
I've been reading MGoBlog since my senior year of high school (2003-04), met Brian way back when in 2004 or so when I was a freshman living in South Quad, and recently returned to Ann Arbor. I have now read MGoBlog every day for 2+ decades, yet overall it has been a pretty dark 20 years of football. But Blake brought us home!
May I ask what about this comment offends you?
The status quo is that men’s football subsidizes non-revenue sports. This is effectively a redistribution of value from football players (generally less well off) to non-revenue athletes (generally more well off). Most theories of justice would call this status quo unfair.
This is a smart take. SP+ and FEI are great since they are tempo adjusted but, in truth, the change in win probability is a better proxy for the real outcome of interest (i.e., winning) than adjusted points per play or per drive.
100% agree with this take of the Orji cat on the final set of downs.
I am not convinced this OSU scheme explains the lack of JJ runs. As Brian often argues, I think you need to establish at least 1 keep early in the game. Moreover, they clearly were okay with Orji running the ball. Sam Webb's explanation of a JJ injury is more persuasive to me. In general, I think our offense was pretty predictable.
I don’t think it’s ridiculous, in this hypothetical, precisely because Texas has already beaten Alabama.
No, we want UGA to lose and the SEC to get no bids
If Alabama wins and the rest of the conference championships go chalk, how would this not be the outcome?
JJ is either hurt or the coaches are insane. The OSU linebackers and edges were able to key in run vs pass all day. They were not put in conflict and did not respect JJ keep reads. For now though we must celebrate this stupendous victory and defer the quibbles!
Wanted to thank Raj here. I have a generally similar professional and fandom trajectory and it is funny reading you describe it so well.
If there is evidence that OSU is connected to the private investigation, I think this would be a story as juicy as Connor Stalions-gate because it would potentially destabilize the future of the Big Ten. You can already see how angry the regents are by the tweet from Jordan Acker as well as Sarah Hubbard. So this is why I'm confused the media haven't been able to figure it out.
What is truly extraordinary is that we are a month into this saga and there still is no publicly released evidence about who financed and implemented this private investigation. Given the constant leaks in every other aspect of this story... I just don't understand. What is going on?!
This is not correct. Per Thamel:
What is left unsaid here?
Thamel's article is bad because, like everything else he has written, he simply reports whatever he is leaked from OSU/NCAA without any further engagement. What he is doing is closer to PR than journalism.
Many posters and Brian have argued that, if there is a unilateral Big Ten suspension, then U-M should take it's ball and go home -- to the SEC.
Of course, this would never happen for so many historical, financial, and institutional reasons.
Howeva, you have to wonder if a suspension would be the catalyst in U-M playing hardball with the Big Ten in future contract negotiations. Why should U-M continue to agree to equal TV payouts when it is one of the big rainmakers?
The Big Ten has more power than the NCAA because of TV money. But ultimately, the Big Ten has TV money because of U-M (and OSU). U-M has the upper hand.
Wait until Brian learns that NFL halftimes are only 12 minutes (!!!)
Football players now have market power to search for better wages. This is how a functioning labor market is supposed to work in a free-market society. College football programs are really no different than any other profit-seeking firm and we need to remember this.
Jenkins was probably a top 100 pick this year. I’m sure he has his sights on first or second round.
This is an example of a hot take premised on incomplete data.
Also, I am not wrong about Brian's comments on Harbaugh after the COVID season:
https://mgoblog.com/content/please-clap
https://twitter.com/mgoblog/status/1596652893645701120?s=20&t=NqA8Jtrnla3acAxZiLTmew
1. Craig is…
Two points:
1. Craig is correct that non-insiders lack complete information and should really hold back the hot takes.
2. Brian wanted to fire Harbaugh after the COVID year. Thus, Brian lacks credibility in his criticism of Warde Manuel renegotiating Harbaugh's contract at that time.
This is not the right way to think about any type of scoring system. The purpose of such systems is to provide predictive information for a given outcome. In medical research (which I do), this means predicting a clinical event like a heart attack. In college football, this means predicting when plays will have net positive benefits (i.e. yards gained which is itself predictive of scoring points which is predictive of winning games). MGoBlog's scoring is clearly a better tool than PFF at predicting the relevant outcome.
I bicycle to work in a large Midwestern City. When I turn or cross an intersection, I have to make eye contact with drivers to make sure they see me. I see multiple drivers texting and not looking up each day. It is extremely dangerous and I think our society needs to hold these drivers accountable just like with DWIs.
I suspect that in the future, we will look back on this era and wonder how we ever tolerated drivers to text -- just like now we look back at the past and wonder how we condoned drinking and driving.
At the same
This is correct.
At the same time, would be interested to do a SportsVU-style sophisticated analysis to see how open U-M's opponents have been on their shots. I would guess it would show that this streak is just bad luck.
There will be regression to the mean. Along with death and taxes, the law of large numbers always prevails.
Agreed, would be a good follow-up question to clarify if he'd like Shane to redshirt.
It's not just HBS and the athletic facilities. The medical school (and most affiliated hospitals), dental school, public health school, and much of the new engineering school are all in Boston too.
I'm a huge fan of Trey, but this does seem a bit curious.
This coming year will be the make-or-break in terms of whether he gets a second NBA contract.
The NBA highly values youth because they believe they can develop players better than college teams.
That is to say, a third year of school likely would have brought down GRIII's stock. Just like a second year did. There is opportunity cost in staying in school.
I know it's in your interest as a U-M fan to have players like GRIII stay, but try to take a more rational approach to the risks and benefits that players like him confront.
Because talent is still hugely important, and there are only 150 starting spots in the NBA.
I don't really get your point.
I think this is speculation.
NBA teams routinely put players they want to keep and develop into the D-league, so I think that's pretty strong evidence against your point.
Why? So you could benefit from watching him play for free?
This line of logic is so old and weak.
The truth is that, all things being equal, young players tend to develop better in the NBA than in college. They also get to their second contract quicker. So, if anything, GRIII should have gone after his freshman year.
Epic dangling modifier to start out this post:
I agree with Dr. Explosion that if this team is winning, all of the offenses of the Brandon regime are tolerated. That doesn't mean that we minimize the offenses; it just means that winning is an overpowering elixir.
Incredibly high-quality content. Nice work, Ace.
What's wrong with celebrating a team that, statistically, had the best offense over the past 12 years?
You have a whopping 29 days of experience on MGoBlog, so I'll let this be my last response to you.
You should make a quick chart a la UMHoops of all the freshman point guards with KenPom ORtg and %Poss on the two axes. That would be the single best way to compare Waltons performance. I would include only those with minimum, say, 25% of minutes.
Just a thought. It would take like 5 minutes.
This is not quite an "I'd let him date my daughter" quote, but I assume that's because his coach only has sons.
Hey, careful with the assumptions. You never know, perhaps one day we'll hear a high school football coach say something like: "I'd let this young man date my son."
Anyone know if you can buy the small laptop sticker from the video with the block "M" on it? That was pretty tight.
Get off your high horse a bit. I don't think the purported "academic superiority" actually makes that much of a difference in the end, especially as most kids -- even at U-M -- major in the sports disciplines.
Love the old recruiting board. Glad you're bringing it back, Brian. I think you had it in the Blogspot phase, no? Many ppl will not know the long, illustrious history of the board.
Sad Josh is an oldie but a goodie.
I think Darius's decision was actually a smart one. Please don't disparage him by calling him not an "actual NBA prospect" when he's been in the league for 2 years now. He's already proven he was an NBA prospect. Keep in mind that Darius Morris made about $1,000,000 over the past 2 years.
I hate that this thread exists. There is no question that he deserves his number retired. He's the best MIchigan player in 20 years.
Geesh, the effrontery to suggest that he has to stay four years to "earn" such an honor is pretty mind-blowing. He was an awesome player and an awesome representative of the program. Now he's going to get paid. Good for him.
Sorry dude, people say this a lot and it's pretty ignorant.
Actually, Manny's decision did work out pretty well for him. He got the chance to audition for multiple seasons in the NBA, made NBA-money for 2 years, and got the chance to work on his game for a full year when he would have had to invest time in classes.
Just because he didn't make an NBA roster for 10 years doesn't mean his decision was a bad one.
I too worship at the throne of KenPom, but Florida simply does not pass the sanity check for me of a dominant #1 overall seed. Vegas appears to agree with me to an extent and gives Michigan 2.5-3 points compared to KenPom's 5. In terms of probabilities, Vegas thus gives us something like a 40% chance of winning.
Not tempting KenPom deity, but, in the end, it's just a model!
Should have been a flagrant
Should have been a flagrant 2, should have been ejected from the game. It was one of the most disgraceful things I've ever seen on a basketball court.
Basketball justice, too.
*
We kinda have 3 of the best shooters in the Big Ten. Not sure if asking for Glen Rice 2.0 is realistic...
No doubt the dude's got game and would get minutes even in our backcourt.
HOWEVA, I was surprised how little lift he had on his jumper. The key will be stopping him from getting his shots off; if he does, he can obviously fill it.
Also, will he guard Burke? No chance in hell he can stay in front of him.