9/23/2023 – Michigan 31, Rutgers 7 – 4-0, 1-0 Big Ten

On Saturday I looked at my watch halfway through the fourth quarter and said "what?" It was 2:50 PM. Michigan would strangle out the last seven minutes with a series of punishing Kalel Mullings runs and go home in an NFL time window. Which is nice, I guess, if the alternative is the networks finding a way to stick in another 10 minutes of commercials in there. It's also nice if you have to do a UFR. But it's not so nice if you're used to a certain amount of football and then there's far less of that.

Michigan's approach to the first third of the season has been to land some body blows and then get the heck out of dodge. This tweet is a week out of date now but that means it it overstates how many plays per minute Michigan is getting in after Michigan and Rutgers combined for 105 in 60 minutes, a play rate of 1.75:

Who plays fast and who plays slow in college football? Here's an updated look at the plays per minute data through Week 3:

1. Tennessee - 3.06
2. TCU - 2.82
3. South Florida - 2.81

131. Michigan - 1.91
132. Rice - 1.77
133. Air Force - 1.77https://t.co/Inp8DhJ7Mu

— Chris Hummer (@chris_hummer) September 21, 2023

The average FBS team is averaging 2.3 plays per minute, so the Rutgers game, in its entirety, was just the first three quarters of an average FBS game. It was barely more than half your average Tennessee game.

This fact combines with the second straight year of cupcake nonconference scheduling and Michigan's tendency to pull anyone with so much as a hangnail to lend the season an air of unreality. Michigan feels like they're simming this season until the Penn State game. We have not left yet the preseason portion of the schedule.

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Various members of the media have issued condescending little pieces about how the new clock rules aren't making a major impact and that commercial time hasn't increased. The argument appears to be that commercial breaks are only as intolerable as they were last year, when they were completely intolerable. Hooray?

The Alabama-Texas game officially lasted three hours and 24 minutes, of which approximately 45 minutes (not including halftime) were commercials. We compared that broadcast with three 2022 SEC games on ESPN. They followed the same format and averaged between 45 and 46 minutes. No noticeable change from last year.

This article then goes on to detail how the networks have eight commercial breaks per half of football, which is the same number of breaks an entire college basketball game has and eight more than any soccer game ever broadcast. Then were are expected to feel grateful, somehow, that there are the same number of commercial breaks being inserted into less football. I'm not sure why the authors of these pieces can't divide.

Meanwhile I've watched halftime shows in back-to-back weeks in which 1) BGSU brought their band for a full halftime and 2) Michigan had their extended homecoming halftime show; both of those events ended with 8 minutes on the halftime clock. If they wanted to cut time they could easily have adopted the same 15-minute halftime that the NFL does. But if a TV exec calls up a sports journalist these folks jump at the opportunity.

In Michigan's case, the way they play their games exacerbates the clock issues. Teams that have four-play scoring drives are seeing a bit of time roll off the clock before it stops for a touchdown or an incomplete pass or whatever. Michigan's tendency to go on long, grinding marches means there are more instances where the clock is running when it otherwise would have been stopped. This effect was even more pronounced in the Ohio State-Notre Dame game, which was largely bereft of explosive plays but featured a lot of first downs. Those teams racked up 129 plays, barely over two per minute. There were 39 first downs in that game; if 30 of them saw the clock run when it otherwise would not the new clock rules lopped the last five minutes off that game. Five minutes are reputed to be forever late in games, so while we're being told that the new rules aren't really doing anything, you could be forgiven for feeling like they're having an absolutely massive impact.

In Michigan's case this can be spun as a good thing since guys are less likely to get hurt… except apparently they're getting hurt in practice a bunch. If most of your hitting occurs when you're getting ready for the game, then the injury benefits of fewer plays are marginal. Personally, I'd like to see more things happen and fewer insurance commercials, but maybe someone who went to Medill can tell me why that's wrong.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

zing a zang zoop [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Sainristil. Jumped a tunnel screen(!) for an interception. Then flipped Junior Colson over his head, kept his balance, burst out of the pack, and ran for a 71-yard touchdown. He even switched the ball to the appropriate arm. Also had two QB hurries, bringing his pass rush win rate up to 36% this year. Took the blame for the Rutgers touchdown even though he was responsible for maybe 15 of those yards because he's a captain.

#2 JJ McCarthy. It says something about how distorted our expectations got after the first two weeks when I thought McCarthy had kind of a rough day and then the box score says he averaged 10 YPA and ran for 60 yards. After a couple hiccups early he was locked in.

#3 Junior Colson, Ernest Haussman, and Michael Barrett. Each of Michigan's linebackers came in for an eyepopping play; my favorite was Barrett shooting up into a free-releasing OL and then ripping him to the ground. Hausmann got to the sideline on an early lead stretch and blasted the RB back into Wimsatt; Colson was again ably tackling in space. Two points each.

Honorable mention: Quinten Johnson had a third-down stick and a PBU. Blake Corum was doing Blake Corum things. Max Bredeson continues to thump linebackers. Colston Loveland had a buttzone catch down the seam and several other catches besides. Semaj Morgan got a tunnel screen early and a back-shoulder TD late. Kris Jenkins blew up two short yardage conversions, though the first was called back for a false start.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

21: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers)
14: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
11: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers)
8: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
5: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers)
3: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), AJ Barner (HM BGSU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Sainristil's weaving pick-six closes the door on any reasonable chance of a Rutgers comeback.

Honorable mention: Colston Loveland grabs a seam route, demonstrating the Ups. Michigan stuffs a fourth down emphatically, even if it didn't count.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Rod Moore misses a tackle to stake Rutgers to an early lead.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy's first two passes are not real great, leading to momentary doubt. Marcus Freeman doesn't put 11 guys on the field.

OFFENSE

[Fuller]

They took Rutgers seriously. Congratulations, Rutgers. You're a real boy now. Unfortunately, this means that Michigan's bringing out their Tecmo Super Bowl reverse flea-flicker:

It also meant that JJ McCarthy keeps were on, much to the bafflement of a program that has come to rely upon the certainty that Michigan will not risk their QB against them. The first one:

 

A subsequent third and one saw the relevant DE check McCarthy, turning a 2-yard belly play into nine yards. Then they brought in Mullings after (another) bad spot saw Edwards ruled down short of the line to goal and McCarthy kept on the belly play for what would have been a big chunk if he didn't turn 90 degrees and get out of bounds after about ten yards.

Corum: back. Edwards: not. Blake Corum is doing all the Blake Corum things and appears to have knocked the rust off. Donovan Edwards not so much. Edwards had six carries, one of them a third and short dive on which you're not allowed to do anything except go straight forward. On three of his other five carries he left yards on the field. This was the most egregious:

Michigan's running power by pulling two tight ends, there's a huge lane up the middle, Bredeson gets a kickout, and Edwards runs right into the force player for a yard. Ironically, it was this game last year when Edwards seemed to have it click; he was patient and on play like this he'd set up a block and then burst.

 

[Barron]

Semaj, the little bad wolf. Semaj Morgan was the target on Michigan's first tunnel screen in living memory and then caught a back-shoulder fade whilst being interfered with:

Nice. Let's see the quote tweets:

Semaj Morgan on his first Michigan touchdown:

“No. 16 that was guarding me, he was a great DB. He was someone we were keying on all week. I'm glad I got to terrorize him.” — @1dubshow pic.twitter.com/fg01pLWYyj

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 24, 2023

Oh hell yes that's going in next year's season preview. Extremely good sign for Morgan that Michigan dusted off the obscure crannies of the playbook to find something to fit him and then told him to go be Jeremy Gallon for a quick sec.

Tackles: they're probably "mid." It's probably time to resign ourselves to the fact that the tackles are coming it at the bottom of reasonable expectations. This game saw Hinton and Henderson rotate again, with Henderson getting the second and fourth quarters. By this point in the year if you have three tackles you don't have two, and it looks like they're still searching for answers there. One third down near the redzone saw McCarthy sacked when both tackles got beat; the run blocking from the spot has been inconsistent at best.

Because this is 2023 Harbaugh, the bottom of reasonable expectations is still having two guys who are solid Big Ten players. I was still hoping for more.

[Fuller]

Team Mullings. I continue to be impressed with what Kalel Mullings is able to do on the ground. This run features Mullings picking through a hole, chopping his feet to avoid an ankle tackle, plowing through a tackle attempt, and then plowing through a second until a guy just gets him down by the ankles:

A couple of plays later he'd take a third and two carry and rugby scrum his way to six yards after contact.

The consistency with which he's been able to make extra yards bodes well for his prospects for next year. Both of his main competitors have been hurt on and off, so juries are out. I got my money on the jump pass guy.

DEFENSE

[Barron]

It's pretty good. In the course of revising this I realized this section is a lot of crabbing for a game in which the opposition scored zero net points. Let's stop and survey the carnage via the lens of SP+, which has Michigan #1 this week on the strength of their also-#1 defense:

Ain't played nobody, sure, but this accounts for ain't played nobody. Also of note is a reason that SP+ is down on Michigan's offense relative to other efficiency metrics:

Maybe the most interesting thing here is that both Notre Dame and Ohio State dropped quite a bit after Saturday night's gripping rock fight. Both teams were hurt by the increased weight of opponent adjustments, and since both teams' offensive ratings were driven by impressive explosiveness numbers heading into Week 4, a complete lack of explosiveness -- the 17-14 Ohio State win saw just three combined gains of more than 25 yards -- dragged the teams' offensive ratings down more than their defensive ratings rose.

Michigan has not been explosive this year and SP+ will privilege explosives over pure efficiency. FEI, which is a pure efficiency metric, has Michigan's offense ninth.

oops [Fuller]

The bad event. Three bits to this:

One is that Sainristil slips as he's trying to mirror Dremel. Two is that Braiden McGregor, who's dropping into this area specifically to nerf a slant, appears to get moved by Wimsatt looking at the outside guy first. That gives Wimsatt just enough window; the ball goes about three inches over McGregor's hand. Then Rod Moore completely airballs a tackle on his first action of the year. The latter is the very bad part, as it takes a ten yard completion to sixty. We've seen enough of Moore to believe that this is an outlier for a player who was getting his first snaps of the year.

The other things that got yards. One: Wimsatt ran a bit and Michigan didn't do a great job of playing both sides of a mesh point. They repeatedly crushed the running back and gave up smallish chunks. Two: irritatingly soft coverage when Michigan DBs lined up nine yards deep would backpedal on the snap, dropping to a deep third and opening up easy hitches:

I can't really explain this defensive approach against a team that doesn't have a lot of athleticism at WR.

Three: a brief period on one second-half drive were Wimsatt was possessed with the spirit of Trevor Siemian and became an unstoppable-throw God, nailing several shots on the sideline before reverting to pumpkin status.

Not seeing it with Stewart. Josiah Stewart was part of the second team DL most of the day; he didn't generate pressures and he continues to make some serious mistakes on the ground. It seems like 80% of all events where Michigan doesn't set an edge are traceable back to him:

DE #5 to bottom

He got bailed out a seriously weak holding call; the OT was controlling him and did not take an excessive amount of time to release him. Aidan Hutchinson, who could wave around his own arm after it had been ripped from its socket and not get a call, probably ate a parrot after seeing that flag come out.

Anyway. PFF has him with just two pressures on 32 pass-rush snaps against mostly G5 guys; this isn't a guy who is struggling with a step up in competition, it's someone not playing anywhere near their established level.

Also! That's also a pretty rough crack replace from Johnson on the previous play. Obviously I do not know what the injury situation is but this will-he-or-won't-he for 3/4ths of the starters in the secondary has been about as irritating as anything can be during a series of huge blowouts over overmatched opponents.

Meanwhile the other WDE. [baby gronk voice] Is this the best pass rush of Jaylen Harrell's career?

DE #32 to bottom

Do you think Jaylen Harrell will lead Michigan to a National Championship? [/baby gronk voice]

It is probably unwise to take too much from this dataset, but FWIW Harrell is grading out as Michigan's best pass rusher at PFF with a 90(!) grade. When things get serious I will not be surprised to see Harrell out there pretty much all the time.

Show them the McGregor tape. Makari Paige blitzed into the backfield scot-free and ate the running back… who did not have the ball.

When you're doing this you need to form up. I probably do not need to tell anyone reading this that; it's 2023.

aaaah, snakes! [Fuller]

Lookit the big guy go. Can you imagine throwing a pick on a tunnel screen and then, moments later, being rudely greeted by Kenneth Grant?

DT #78 just above C

This is the DT equivalent of watching JJ McCarthy catch up to Blake Corum in the Big Ten championship game. That should not be so, but it is.

[Barron]

Coming along. Nice game for Quentin Johnson in relief of Moore. He had a third down stick and a PBU, with nothing in particular that looked like a Johnson problem. Might say something about the pecking order that Keon Sabb didn't play much despite Moore going in and out of the lineup.

SPECIAL TEAMS

I'm not sure what we're doing here with punt return. Surely it should be Tyler Morris's job at this point. Thaw was unable to field a punt when the opposing punter had rolled out and taken absolutely forever to get the ball out; he was in the area but should have had plenty of time to get to the sideline given the inevitable direction of a punt (to the right) on a rollout to the right. If Thaw's not the catches-all-the-punts guy what's the rationale for continuing to play him?

Kickoff shenanigans. Rutgers tried the pop-up; Joe Taylor did not fumble and Rutgers declined to give up the field position on kickoff #2. That one hit the ground and Semaj Morgan had to return it.

Meanwhile Rutgers called a fair catch, allowed the ball to hit at the two, and then had to frantically attempt to field the ball when it did not land in the endzone. They ended up with the ball at the five because once you call a fair catch anyone picking up the ball for your team means the ball is dead, and if it hits the ground you don't get the touchback.

I've noticed a few teams around college football try long squibs that are designed to get to the returner near the goal line, but in such a way that a fair catch touchback is impossible.

Field goals. Turner missed one from 42 and made one from 46; the one from 42 would have been good from 37, but a dubious delay of game penalty pushed it farther out. I'm relatively unconcerned about a miss that barely curved out.

Also unconcerned. Tommy Doman's first punt may have grazed a satellite. Got dang.

MISCELLANEOUS

The larger picture. Opponent adjusted EPA/play:

This does not have any priors, like SP+ does, FWIW. Interesting notes:

• Michigan's offense is actually more efficient than OSU's.
• Penn State's offense doesn't look super competitive right now.
• Ye gods, MSU, Iowa, and Indiana.
• Illinois == Colorado
• Wisconsin == Alabama?!

Spotting the ball is hard. Michigan got a number of horrendous spots in this game, none more so than the Loveland conversion that wasn't. You can easily piece together the fact that this lunge from Loveland…

…was in-bounds from the other camera angle:

Despite this the call stood and Michigan had to convert a fourth and one. Then in the ND-OSU game OSU got an ND fourth and one conversion overturned on far more ambiguous evidence. Some consistency would be nice.

Commercials! Michigan gets one point for preventing a commercial break in the last seven minutes of the game by griding that time off the clock without replay, injury, or timeout. God's work, gentleman. This week's indignity was a commercial-kickoff-commercial sequence.

HERE 

State of our Open Threads:

Let's take a look at one more - the normalized values for select words. This is usually a good measure of how we felt about a game:

That's more or less what you would expect - the first two games were easy on the eyes, then the final non-conference game passes with some uneasiness, then Rutgers, which we win, but now we're on edge with eight games left.

Best and Worst:

Best:  Tough Catches

A big reason last year’s game was competitive at halftime was because Michigan’s receives simply didn’t make McCarthy’s life easy on catchable balls.  While I think some of that was just due to McCarthy going through some growing pains as a first-time QB (it was in the middle of a stretch where McCarthy completed about 50% of his passes for a month), he was absolutely let down on a couple of throws that could have bailed him out.  By comparison, this game featured some tough catches made by his receivers to keep drives.  The highlight was the Semaj Morgan pulling in the eventual game-winning TD while being interfered with, and later on Loveland climbed the ladder to bring in a tough throw between defenders that led to another score.  And beyond those tough receptions, Michigan’s passing offense broke out some nifty plays like the an Edwards screen and a unique flea flicker to Loveland that further stretched an aggressive Rutgers front.  It felt unlike last year where Michigan took it almost as an offense if the opposition sold out to stop the run and spent downs imposing their will 2 yards at a time.  Instead, they knew the Scarlet Knights couldn’t match up with Michigan’s receivers and simply exploited those deficiencies, which then opened up running lanes later on.  It definitely felt like a more coherent offensive philosophy than last year’s matchup, and when combined with better receiver play the offense hummed along without really needing to rely on Rutgers just messing up.

Iowatch!

Iowa lost to Penn State 31-0 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Old Frenemy Cade McNamara completed 5 of 14 passes for 42 yards, fumbled twice, and got hit so many times that Sean Clifford, who probably hasn’t left his ice bath since Penn State’s Rose Bowl win over Utah, undoubtedly winced in sympathy. Old Frenemy “Leading Receiver” Erick All caught 3 passes for 35 yards and fumbled away a drive. The team had 4 first downs in the entire game. The team had 4 fumbles lost (and 2 more they recovered) in the entire game. 76 total yards. FOR THE GAME.

If DC Phil Parker doesn’t murder “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz this week, I’ll consider it a minor miracle: Iowa’s defense was on the field MORE THAN 45 MINUTES, was obliged to notch 100 tackles, and STILL allowed less than 4 yards per rush and less than 5 yards per passing attempt. Iowa lost their #1 ranked SP+ defense yesterday (to Michigan!), but dammit they keep it in our hearts.