Which scenario maximizes our chances of winning it all?
There have been a couple of threads on the likelihood of various CFP scenarios, but I thought it might be worthwhile to discuss which CFP scenario would maximize Michigan's chances of winning it all. Scroll down for the TL;DR.
My view is that we should hope and pray for the outcome that: 1) gives us the easiest first-round matchup, and 2) maximizes our chances of avoiding Georgia. With that in mind, here's my view on the various teams in contention:
Georgia - They've had such a tight grip on the top spot for so long that I don't see them dropping any lower than 3 even if they lose to 'Bama (barring perhaps a blowout by 'Bama, which I don't see happening).
Michigan - This goes without saying, but we need to beat Iowa to avoid a first round CFP matchup with Georgia (or worse, being dropped from the top four entirely).
Washington - One of Washington and Oregon will get in and the other will get bounced. On paper, Oregon looks like the better team (notwithstanding Washington's head-to-head win), and hence, that's the Pac-12 team we should want to avoid.
Florida State - Although they remain undefeated, they look even weaker than some of the one-loss teams after losing Jordan Travis (see, e.g., their offensive struggles against a terrible Florida team). They'll probably get in if they beat Louisville, but I wouldn't put it beyond the committee to drop them to number 4 behind a one-loss Oregon if Oregon beats Washington, especially since the committee has been known to cite injuries to key players as reasons for dropping teams.
Oregon - See Washington.
Ohio State - I honestly don't know what to say about the Buckeyes. On the one hand, emotionally, no Michigan fan really wants to see our hated rival fall ass-backwards into the playoff yet again despite not even playing in the B1G Championship Game (*giggles*). On the other hand, we are clearly in their heads to the point that we're a tough matchup for them, and we now know for a fact that they are a mentally weak team. So I'm not so sure OSU squeaking in would be such a bad thing, particularly since they've proven themselves capable of knocking off Georgia (albeit with a much better QB than they have this year).
Texas - Given the way they bullied 'Bama in the trenches with surprising ease earlier this season, this is the one-loss team that probably has the best chance of knocking off Georgia.
'Bama - They're the lowest-ranked one-loss team, but if they manage to beat Georgia, then the committee would undoubtedly vault them into the top four without eliminating Georgia. I don't want two SEC teams in the CFP.
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(TL;DR) So, all things considered, this is the outcome I would prefer:
1) Georgia - It's tempting to want Georgia to lose so we can claim the top spot, but I don't see the committee dropping them from the top 4 even if they lose to 'Bama. Both Texas and Ohio State are tougher first-round draws for them (and for us) than Oregon/Washington (also: see my comments on 'Bama above). And there's also the chance that the committee could drop them to 4, which would force us to face them in the first round.
2) Michigan
3) Washington - I would love to face a kneecapped Florida State instead of Washington, but there is no path for FSU to be bumped to number 3 while ensuring that Georgia faces its toughest first-round matchup.
4) Texas - See my comments on Texas above.
What does everyone think? What outcome do you think is most favorable to Michigan?
November 26th, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
I am rooting hard for FSU and a Rose Bowl match up with the Noles!
November 26th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
I’d like to think that if Alabama beats Georgia, Georgia falls behind Bama with the head to head loss, plus Texas who has the win over ‘Bama.
Washington, FSU both win to cap undefeated seasons, Texas #4 as ahead of both SEC teams.
1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. FSU
4. Texas
But yeah, no way ESPN lets this happen.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
If Alabama wins and the rest of the conference championships go chalk, how would this not be the outcome?
November 26th, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
I wouldn't be shocked if in this case they drop FSU to 5 (making the injured QB argument) with Texas and Bama at 3 and 4, respectively. It would be ridiculous, but are they really going to leave the SEC out of the playoffs? Who knows
November 26th, 2023 at 8:27 PM ^
This would be the only fair outcome. But we've seen better than most fanbases that the NCAA/B1G/ESPN/Etc don't give two shits about fair competition.
In fact, they hate it.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:31 PM ^
Uhh, it's not ESPN, it's ridiculous to think that a 1 loss sec champ (with its only loss to a top 7 texas) that just knocked off the #1 team (and back to back champs) would ever be left out of the top 4.
If that was even suggested for UM, everyone would be getting their pitch forks. And deservedly so.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:43 PM ^
So who are you leaving out in this scenario? The undefeated ACC Champion FSU? Or a one-loss Big 12 Champion Texas who... checks notes... beat Alabama head-to-head.
"Ridiculous"? Not hardly. It's both entirely plausible to make an argument to not have the one-loss SEC Champ in for this scenario and extremely difficult to imagine a world where the SEC Champ doesn't make the 4 team CFP.
Do I think it'll happen? Doubtful. But definitely not "ridiculous".
November 26th, 2023 at 9:00 PM ^
Yes, fsu. Who is their best win? Both beat lsu. Louisville vs UGA? What about #2. Duke vs ole miss? Both struggled some against bad teams, but seems obvious that a 1 loss b1g or sec team would be in in almost any circumstance. I get the head to head, though. But Texas loss is worse, too.
But let me clarify, there are circumstances (rare, like this year) where it's not completely ridiculous. It is ridiculous to state that "ESPN wouldn't let it happen". I'm never one for conspiracy bullshit.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:47 PM ^
I don’t think it’s ridiculous, in this hypothetical, precisely because Texas has already beaten Alabama.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:29 PM ^
I don’t think this is crazy. The committee has said that they reward conference champions, so if Alabama beats Georgia, I would imagine the committee would put Alabama ahead of Georgia. Then you have Texas with the head to head went over Alabama, so I would imagine if they win their conference championship as well, then they would stay ahead of Alabama. Then it is just a question of what do you do with an undefeated FSU? I would probably put Texas #3 and FSU #4 in that scenario, but #2-7 would all be super close.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
But the acc isn't very good, and bama would have the best win of anyone. And then add in fsu is down their qb. Plus, it's bama, not mizzou or miss state. Look, I'm not stan-ing for bama, much rather face fsu. But look at SOS and SOR (once adding in UGA) will all slant to bama.
If UM lost to Texas next year and win the b1g woth no more losses, we'd all be beside ourselves to be left out.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:28 PM ^
I agree. That’s why I think the committee would bump Texas up to #3, then it’s a slugfest for that #4 spot. You can easily make a case for undefeated FSU, or a 1 loss Bama or OSU or Georgia. FSU is almost certainly the weakest of those teams, but it would be hard to leave out and undefeated conference champ.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:38 PM ^
Fair points. Can make a case for anyone of those (well, maybe not osu lol). UGA passes the eye test and #1 to #5+ is a big blow. Bama would be a conference champion that just beat UGA. So it's really bama vs fsu in my mind. Probably oversold it with being ridiculous, I just think either is deserving but fsu has looked like shit most of the year and has no marquee wins.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
Beat Iowa
November 26th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
Go, Blue. Beat Iowa.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
Beating Iowa and then winning the next two games is the scenario that works best.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
Committee will have whatever sells most tickets. Michigan vs PAC12 in Rose, Georgia vs Texas/FSU in Sugar
November 26th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
Someone starts a firm to track bagmen.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
I'd rather face UW than UO and FSU than UT and Bama than UGA.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:37 PM ^
Bama beats Georgia and the committee does the right thing by putting Texas in after they beat Bama head to head. FSU wins their game and Wash/Oregon can play out either way, but preferably Wash. We get Texas in the first round.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
So you’re saying Georgia gets in over bama? No way. They will both get in. They’ll take fsu out if they have to
November 26th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
He's saying no SEC team in it. Which would be glorious. But won't happen.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
It won't happen...BUT they're not going to leave out undefeated power 5 teams...so if UM, FSU, UW are all 12-0, and Texas wins, you have to go with Texas...right? Texas beat Bama which beat Georgia (in this scenario). I get the "worst loss" argument, but you literally have a head-to-head win which should count more, IMO.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^
The narrative will be Bama is greatly improved since losing to Texas, and they will pretend Auburn was a great win for them because Auburn also gave UGA a game. This is the logic of the committee.
this is also why the 12 team playoff is so greatly needed
November 26th, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
It's only not going to happen because UGA won't lose to Bama. However, if they did, and Michigan, Washington and FSU win out....the Committee won't really have another choice. UGA wouldn't be a conference champ and Bama lost head-to-head with Texas. Texas has to be in. I can't imagine that they'd leave an undefeated FSU team out.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
No, no SEC team. I think if FSU is undefeated and beats a ranked team without their starter, you have to keep them in the top 4. Georgia should be behind Alabama if they lose (how could you not treat that as an elimination game?). The only issue in my scenario is if Oregon beats Washington. Would Alabama jump Oregon?
November 26th, 2023 at 7:38 PM ^
It doesn’t really matter. We all wanted tcu last year and look how that turned out. Play whoever it is and beat them all up. We’re the best team so all the other teams should be having this discussion, not us
November 26th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
Hey, Cryin Day gave tcu our signs!
November 26th, 2023 at 7:38 PM ^
Beat Iowa. The committee will give us the toughest row to hoe, and that is out of our control.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
The one where we win our next 2 games
November 26th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
I would argue it’s the one where we win our next three games
November 26th, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
Next 3 please. Beat Iowa!
November 26th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
OSU isn't getting in. This isn't like last year. To many undefeated/one loss teams that will be conference champs
November 26th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
We want UGA, UW, and FSU to win out so that we get Washington and don’t open the door to Bama or Texas
November 26th, 2023 at 8:04 PM ^
No, we want UGA to lose and the SEC to get no bids
November 26th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^
I want what you're having.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
Not playing Oregon. They're scary
November 26th, 2023 at 8:00 PM ^
They are, but they also sort of remind me of Penn State defensively, which sometimes aggression can work against you. I would trust Jim to dial up an intelligent offense against them.
Stopping the efficiency of Bo Nix is another story.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
Be tha man gotta beat the man.
We need to beat UGA in the championship game.
Gonna go thru UW or FSU to get there.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:43 PM ^
If Georgia loses and FSU wins, Michigan goes to #1 with a first round game against #4 FSU. (I think an undefeated FSU will be seeded according to their relative perceived weakness at #4 no matter what, but their exclusion from the playoff is off the table should they win on Saturday.)
If Georgia wins, then I think Washington is the weakest of the remaining likely foes. I agree that in this scenario, I hope Georgia faces Texas (requiring an FSU loss).
Since the B12 CCG is at Noon, the SEC at 4pm, and the ACC at 8pm, we'll know whether to root for or against FSU by their game time.
But playing the perceived TCU weakling didn't work out so well last year.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:05 PM ^
I think we need assume their won’t be 2 pick sixes and 2 utter failures at the goal line.
That was a season’s worth of in game disasters all in one game
November 26th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
We're gonna have to beat two of the three other teams no matter what. Just win.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
I want to play Georgia for the National Championship. The players have some unfinished business with them. Nobody will stop us from getting there.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:32 PM ^
Michigan did institute a "Beat Georgia" portion to their practice, no?
November 26th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
There honestly seem to be some nightmare scenarios for the committee, and despite some of the drawbacks I am looking forward to the 12-team next year.
If Bama beats Georgia, Texas beats OK State, and FSU wins, how do they justify putting Texas in over Bama (with H2H victory)? Does the SEC get left out? Does undefeated FSU get left out?
If chalk plays out, you get Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, FSU (I think). And that would be a tough matchup in the Rose Bowl against Oregon.
For your question, most favorable, I think the only way to play FSU is if Bama beats Georgia, MIchigan takes the top spot, and FSU finishes #4.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
dude, if we would lose to Iowa, (which ain't gonna happen), we would definitely be out
November 26th, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
We'd definitely be behind the SEC champ (one loss max) and the Pac12 Champ (one loss max)
Rooting interests should that horror occur:
- FSU to lose (ahead of one-loss FSU & two-loss champ Louisville)
- Tex to lose (ahead of two-loss Tex & two-loss champ OklaSt)
- Bama to lose (ahead of two loss Bama--GA takes the SEC Champ spot)
- Oregon to lose (ahead of two loss Oregon--Wash takes the Pac12 Champ spot)
November 26th, 2023 at 7:47 PM ^
Best scenario?
- Bama defeats GA.
- Washington defeats Oregon
- FSU wins
-Texas wins
In this situation Oregon is certainly eliminated. GA might not get into the CFP. OSU certainly wouldnt get into the CFP. UM would be the #1 seed and either face Texas or FSU in the semi-final, both teams UM can definitely defeat. Then UM would face either UW or Bama for the NC, also two teams UM can defeat.
Really, any scenario which guarantees GA and Oregon do not make the CFP is UM's best-case scenario.
#GoBlue
#Bet
November 26th, 2023 at 7:47 PM ^
I can't fucking believe we lost to TCU last year
Like WTF
November 26th, 2023 at 7:49 PM ^
"but there is no path for FSU to be bumped to number 3 while ensuring that Georgia faces its toughest matchup"
FSU winning the ACC and Oregon winning the PAC12 I think gives us 1.UGA 2. UM 3. FSU 4. Oregon
I know everyone is gonna say things like that they will make sure UGA gets the easy game/UM gets the tough one, or that they'll make it UM/PAC in the Rose Bowl, but I dont think that's how itll play out. I think they will go undefeateds 1-3 and then Oregon. And if you want a conspiracy, then its because they want Kirby vs Lanning in the semi's