- Member for
- 7 years 14 weeks
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|1 week 3 days ago||As long as it it's not||
|7 weeks 3 days ago||What, no sliding field goal hold gif?||
Brian, I am dissapoint.
|8 weeks 7 hours ago||Will Likely||
I don't understand why Maryland doesn't line up Likely in the slot and at least run some fakes off him. It's not like they've got anything else going on offense. Do they just have Norfleet-itis?
|9 weeks 4 days ago||Kansas v Rutgers?||
I'd consider bringing the Ugly Game of the Week out of retirement for that. Holy moly.
|16 weeks 3 days ago||I was partial to||
"Drink as much milk as your little belly can hold. At all times"
|51 weeks 3 days ago||It occurred to me||
The coaching tenure of these guys is so short, almost nobody gets long enough to see it. I mean, this was Hoke's first year with All His Players. The trend should still be there, if you can truly "coach-up" your players, the performance improvement should be there from the start. That's the idea - you have a known quantity, in this case the recruiting rankings of the players, and can compare them between coaches.
I also figured that with a top-5 recruiting class, the odds would be in your favor of getting some talented freshmen on the field (like Peppers, except for his knee).
|51 weeks 3 days ago||Synopsis||
It's a combination of two other advanced metrics, FEI and S&P+.
FEI: A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
S&P+ takes into account success rate, equivalent points per play, drive efficiency, and adjusts for opponent quality.
I chose it as a way to measure relative success/failure of a team, without using simpler stats like yardage, record, or points. All these advanced stats take those factors and create a ranking from them. I specifically chose F+ since it's a combination of two other advanced stats (like I used 247's aggregate recruiting rankings).
|51 weeks 4 days ago||Add one more relevant data point - wins||
Seth, can you add a line for wins on the graph, so we can see how experience tends to equate with wins? I see 2011 sticking out there, and hopefully that will correlate to exceeding expectations next year.
|1 year 3 weeks ago||Never mind Brian,||
where's the Mathlete been? Did he look at our numbers and jump out a (hopefully 1st story) window?
|1 year 23 weeks ago||Prince Ali, wonderful he, Ali-ababa...||
Yes, the Pep Band needs to play the theme from Alladin if he ever makes it to Ann Arbor.
The KU student government has a good point. If the Michigan student section is around 20,000 seats, at $300 each, that's $6 million in revenue to the AD. The AD has an annual budget of $137.5 million, so giving student tickets away for free would only impact them by less than 5%. Heck, cutting season student ticket prices to $100 for the season would still raise $2 million, impacting budget by less than 2%.
|1 year 43 weeks ago||Beilein Teams Don't Foul||
Hypothesis: winning percentage correlates with low foul rates. I'd expect that giving fewer intentional fouls at the end of the game would lead to lower foul rates for good teams.
For example, Saturday's game had 16 fouls for Michigan, 22 for State. Eight of those 22 came in the last two minutes.
How to verify this, I have no idea.
|2 years 11 weeks ago||A thought for future analysis (maybe)||
Have you ever looked at using other statistical categories for qualification?
I mean, would using median instead of mean (average) influence ranking at all? That would throw out the outlier plays, possibly at the expense of penalizing quick-strike teams.
In a similar vein, would standard deviation serve a similar function to categorize offensive/defensive efficiency? I realize that would reward "grind-it-out" offenses and "bend-but-don't-break" defenses, but categorizing Getting Torched/Homerun play frequency might be interesting.
|2 years 16 weeks ago||You're secretly using hex, aren't you?||
B1G would be the Big 17, if G was a valid hex code.
WHO WILL BE THE 17th TEAM IN THE BIG TEN???
|2 years 18 weeks ago||And that's why Braylon's #1 scholarship is dumb||
Why does Braylon get to say who gets AC's #1?
|2 years 20 weeks ago||As someone who was at that Rose Bowl,||
I don't remember needing a jacket.
Wunderground says a high of 71 for January 1, 1998.
|2 years 31 weeks ago||Thanks!||
I guess I didn't expect such a random distrubution of TDs for given yardage. If kicking 40 yards gives a 10% chance of TD, and 50+ is only 25%, then kicking deep doesn't seem like a negative.
|2 years 32 weeks ago||If you're looking for something to do,||
it's not very exciting, but I'm curious about the concept of "outkicking the coverage." Specifically, do longer punts give more variance and more chance of a long return? Is there an optimal length of punt to maximize distance and minimize return?
It seems to me that kicking, say, 35 yards and forcing a fair catch is a safer play than punting 50+ and having a potential return for TD. But I'd be curious if the data shows that longer punts are more likely to give up a longer return.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Nothing about Kiffin and USC?||
Nothing about Kiffin and USC? Oh, I see...
|2 years 44 weeks ago||Or, make it connect-the-dots||
Travel around, randomly tweeting locations. Make those locations spell the name/logo of your school of choice.
|3 years 1 week ago||I say screw it||
This makes the B1G Championship game a formality, and opens the door for promotion/relegation.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Wow, I have a fan||
There's a number of reasons I quit doing the UGotW.
1. I started to feel bad about picking on EMU every week.
2. I have a whole lot less time to preview/review the games, between a new job and a little future Wolverine
3. The amount of content really picked up, so I felt like there wasn't a big need for one more diary.
4. I wanted to do the Pick Six review, but never heard back from the guy who took all the votes.
5. I can't think of #5.
If there's really a subculture of people who read it (besides me, you and Seth), I will think about bringing it back.
|3 years 9 weeks ago||Also, your author page is messed up||
is only showing stuff from May/June.
does work, though.
It just feels like the whole of sbnation is yelling at me.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||How ridiculous is Denard's EV last week?||
Have you ever had a +20 EV, let alone almost +0.5 per play?
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Once this is done||
somebody needs to build these rosters in NCAA '13, build playbooks and let them fight it out.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Drupal Module?||
Their demo site
seems like it would do the trick. No idea how well it would scale, but it's an option.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||Conference Champs||
I think the deck is getting stacked to avoid LSU v. Alabama III. Having said that, I do think that the committee will prefer a 4th conference champ over the runner-up from another one, simply for the money going to that conference. And I think that makes it harder for the independants/mid-majors to make it in. I just expect it to be Big-10, SEC, Pac-12, Big-12 more or less every year.
In 2011, the Big 10 would have been shut out of a large pile of money. But I think we'll see a lot of situations like 2010, where I predict that Wisconsin gets in over Stanford, simply because the Pac-10 already has a team in the playoff. Or 2008, where it could very well be Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Penn State just to spread the teams around.
Once the mid-majors combine into a big enough conference to raise enough of a stink is when we'll see the next change (to 6 or 8 teams, or a play-in game or something).
|3 years 28 weeks ago||300m hurdles||
Only because I'm a former hurdler. Anything above high school runs 400m hurdles outdoors. That's why that record has stood for 20+ years - no one runs it in professional competition.
But that's still a pretty good time.
|3 years 30 weeks ago||Context||
"Raping their fanbase" is probably not appropriate when discussing Penn State.
|3 years 33 weeks ago||Trafalmadore||
I would have thought it sounds much more like the Marketing Division of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||Average?||
Personally, Seth's looks the best to me, but if you average them together you get: