I did not make this headline up
- Member for
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|16 weeks 2 days ago||It occurred to me||
The coaching tenure of these guys is so short, almost nobody gets long enough to see it. I mean, this was Hoke's first year with All His Players. The trend should still be there, if you can truly "coach-up" your players, the performance improvement should be there from the start. That's the idea - you have a known quantity, in this case the recruiting rankings of the players, and can compare them between coaches.
I also figured that with a top-5 recruiting class, the odds would be in your favor of getting some talented freshmen on the field (like Peppers, except for his knee).
|16 weeks 2 days ago||Synopsis||
It's a combination of two other advanced metrics, FEI and S&P+.
FEI: A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
S&P+ takes into account success rate, equivalent points per play, drive efficiency, and adjusts for opponent quality.
I chose it as a way to measure relative success/failure of a team, without using simpler stats like yardage, record, or points. All these advanced stats take those factors and create a ranking from them. I specifically chose F+ since it's a combination of two other advanced stats (like I used 247's aggregate recruiting rankings).
|16 weeks 3 days ago||Add one more relevant data point - wins||
Seth, can you add a line for wins on the graph, so we can see how experience tends to equate with wins? I see 2011 sticking out there, and hopefully that will correlate to exceeding expectations next year.
|20 weeks 2 days ago||Never mind Brian,||
where's the Mathlete been? Did he look at our numbers and jump out a (hopefully 1st story) window?
|40 weeks 3 days ago||Prince Ali, wonderful he, Ali-ababa...||
Yes, the Pep Band needs to play the theme from Alladin if he ever makes it to Ann Arbor.
The KU student government has a good point. If the Michigan student section is around 20,000 seats, at $300 each, that's $6 million in revenue to the AD. The AD has an annual budget of $137.5 million, so giving student tickets away for free would only impact them by less than 5%. Heck, cutting season student ticket prices to $100 for the season would still raise $2 million, impacting budget by less than 2%.
|1 year 8 weeks ago||Beilein Teams Don't Foul||
Hypothesis: winning percentage correlates with low foul rates. I'd expect that giving fewer intentional fouls at the end of the game would lead to lower foul rates for good teams.
For example, Saturday's game had 16 fouls for Michigan, 22 for State. Eight of those 22 came in the last two minutes.
How to verify this, I have no idea.
|1 year 28 weeks ago||A thought for future analysis (maybe)||
Have you ever looked at using other statistical categories for qualification?
I mean, would using median instead of mean (average) influence ranking at all? That would throw out the outlier plays, possibly at the expense of penalizing quick-strike teams.
In a similar vein, would standard deviation serve a similar function to categorize offensive/defensive efficiency? I realize that would reward "grind-it-out" offenses and "bend-but-don't-break" defenses, but categorizing Getting Torched/Homerun play frequency might be interesting.
|1 year 33 weeks ago||You're secretly using hex, aren't you?||
B1G would be the Big 17, if G was a valid hex code.
WHO WILL BE THE 17th TEAM IN THE BIG TEN???
|1 year 35 weeks ago||And that's why Braylon's #1 scholarship is dumb||
Why does Braylon get to say who gets AC's #1?
|1 year 37 weeks ago||As someone who was at that Rose Bowl,||
I don't remember needing a jacket.
Wunderground says a high of 71 for January 1, 1998.
|1 year 48 weeks ago||Thanks!||
I guess I didn't expect such a random distrubution of TDs for given yardage. If kicking 40 yards gives a 10% chance of TD, and 50+ is only 25%, then kicking deep doesn't seem like a negative.
|1 year 49 weeks ago||If you're looking for something to do,||
it's not very exciting, but I'm curious about the concept of "outkicking the coverage." Specifically, do longer punts give more variance and more chance of a long return? Is there an optimal length of punt to maximize distance and minimize return?
It seems to me that kicking, say, 35 yards and forcing a fair catch is a safer play than punting 50+ and having a potential return for TD. But I'd be curious if the data shows that longer punts are more likely to give up a longer return.
|2 years 7 weeks ago||Nothing about Kiffin and USC?||
Nothing about Kiffin and USC? Oh, I see...
|2 years 9 weeks ago||Or, make it connect-the-dots||
Travel around, randomly tweeting locations. Make those locations spell the name/logo of your school of choice.
|2 years 18 weeks ago||I say screw it||
This makes the B1G Championship game a formality, and opens the door for promotion/relegation.
|2 years 24 weeks ago||Wow, I have a fan||
There's a number of reasons I quit doing the UGotW.
1. I started to feel bad about picking on EMU every week.
2. I have a whole lot less time to preview/review the games, between a new job and a little future Wolverine
3. The amount of content really picked up, so I felt like there wasn't a big need for one more diary.
4. I wanted to do the Pick Six review, but never heard back from the guy who took all the votes.
5. I can't think of #5.
If there's really a subculture of people who read it (besides me, you and Seth), I will think about bringing it back.
|2 years 26 weeks ago||Also, your author page is messed up||
is only showing stuff from May/June.
does work, though.
It just feels like the whole of sbnation is yelling at me.
|2 years 28 weeks ago||How ridiculous is Denard's EV last week?||
Have you ever had a +20 EV, let alone almost +0.5 per play?
|2 years 32 weeks ago||Once this is done||
somebody needs to build these rosters in NCAA '13, build playbooks and let them fight it out.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Drupal Module?||
Their demo site
seems like it would do the trick. No idea how well it would scale, but it's an option.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||Conference Champs||
I think the deck is getting stacked to avoid LSU v. Alabama III. Having said that, I do think that the committee will prefer a 4th conference champ over the runner-up from another one, simply for the money going to that conference. And I think that makes it harder for the independants/mid-majors to make it in. I just expect it to be Big-10, SEC, Pac-12, Big-12 more or less every year.
In 2011, the Big 10 would have been shut out of a large pile of money. But I think we'll see a lot of situations like 2010, where I predict that Wisconsin gets in over Stanford, simply because the Pac-10 already has a team in the playoff. Or 2008, where it could very well be Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Penn State just to spread the teams around.
Once the mid-majors combine into a big enough conference to raise enough of a stink is when we'll see the next change (to 6 or 8 teams, or a play-in game or something).
|2 years 45 weeks ago||300m hurdles||
Only because I'm a former hurdler. Anything above high school runs 400m hurdles outdoors. That's why that record has stood for 20+ years - no one runs it in professional competition.
But that's still a pretty good time.
|2 years 47 weeks ago||Context||
"Raping their fanbase" is probably not appropriate when discussing Penn State.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Trafalmadore||
I would have thought it sounds much more like the Marketing Division of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||Average?||
Personally, Seth's looks the best to me, but if you average them together you get:
|3 years 4 weeks ago||As someone married to a Kansas grad,||
I can confirm this statement is true.
But I don't think Michigan v. ND UTL should count as Random Michigan game, but point taken.
|3 years 6 weeks ago||Offensive Goals||
I agree that the "staying ahead of the chains" adage is like "establish the ground game", "win between the tackles", or any number of meaningless announcer-isms. Staying ahead of the chains is only meaningful based on your offensive strategy. If you're playing Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust, then you're expecting 3 plays of 3 or so yards to move the ball. If you're playing Mike Leach's Air Raid, you're expecting 1 play of 10 yards. West Coast/Spread/Run and Shoot fall in between, say, 2 plays of 5 yards to keep moving. I guess it's a way to try and quantify offensive efficiency, but not much else.
Imagine an offense where all you do is throw Hail Mary's. Your success rate would be terrible, but your effectiveness would probably be reasonable (complete 2 or 3 a game, and you've got a shot).
Looking forward to some numbers.
|3 years 9 weeks ago||He may have good backpedal,||
but how are his hips?
|3 years 10 weeks ago||Sheed's Jingle Bells||
I always wondered what a Biz Markee and Wesley Willis duet would sound like. Now I know.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||I think #2 is the best solution||
I don't know what happens with baseball/hockey players once they are drafted, aside from the pro team keeping the rights to the player. Do they get a stipend from their team?
But I do think that it does make the college game a noticeable step down from pro games, since the best players are in the pros as soon as they're capable. Compare that to college basketball/football and the skill-level doesn't seem to drop off as much.
I think a position that give some power to the players is best for them. You get a guarenteed 4 or 5 years unless you are ruled ineligible, and are free to leave after any season. I don't know what to do directly about the problem of agents, but maybe this would decrease their demand.