About Last Week

Oh man, you almost got away. [Barron]

The Road Ahead

Hawaii (0-2, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Vanderbilt, 63-10; Lost to Western Kentucky, 49-17

Recap: The Timmy Chang Era started well, with the Rainbow Warriors scoring a touchdown on their first drive.

Since then, things have gone less well.

This team is as frightening as: An esquilax. Fear Level = 1.2

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Hawai’i is in the midst of a system transition and a complete culture overhaul, and they’re doing so without a shred of talent. They’re gonna have a bad time.

Michigan should worry about: The stock market is getting hammered over the last couple of weeks. It seems to be based on concerns that the Fed is going to raise interest rates, but, I mean, the reason the Fed feels like they can raise rates is because of a string of pretty good economic news over the last few weeks, so we’re in this weird spot where the better the economic indicators, the more the market tanks. Seems perverse to me, but what do I know.

Anyway Hawai’i is really bad.

When they play Michigan: They’re going to put this on television. Children are going to watch this.

HAWAII @ MICHIGAN pic.twitter.com/CUVU6o1RQU

— parker (@statsowar) September 6, 2022

Next game: @ Michigan, 8:00 p.m., BTN (Hawai’i +51)

UConn (1-1)

Last week: Lost at Utah State, 31-20; Beat Central Connecticut, 28-3

Recap: In one of the most surprising appearances of a heartbeat since they thawed Steve Rogers out of that glacier, UConn SHOWED UP against Utah State. Despite being a 24-point underdog, they jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and looked energized. And when Utah State scored 24 points in the second quarter and it looked like they might pull away and turn this into a regular ol’ UConn game, the Huskies managed to pull it together and stay within shouting distance for the rest of the afternoon.

It was a costly moral victory, though. Starting quarterback TaQuan Roberson tore his ACL, and leading returning receiver Keelan Marion broke his collarbone. This is on the heels of losing their anticipated #1 receiver, Cam Ross, to a foot injury in camp. As a result, UConn was unable to do much of anything through the air, but they rushed for 6.3 yards per carry, nearly double their 3.2 yards per carry from last year.

Their Week 1 performance didn’t add much in the way of confidence, as they only led Central Connecticut 14-3 into the 4th quarter before pulling away. Still, you can make a very good argument for UConn as NOT being one of the ten worst teams in the country right now.

Sad, but obligatory

This team is as frightening as: When you’re expecting to fight a toddler, then you find out the toddler is surprisingly big for his age, but also that the toddler has a torn ACL and a broken collarbone. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Running back Nathan Carter is legit. He’s a little dude, but he shows great balance and patience. He rushed for 190 yards on 20 carries against Utah State and 123 yards on 23 carries against Central Connecticut.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: UConn hasn’t beaten a Top-125 FBS team since 2017. Michigan is probably a Top-125 team.

When they play Michigan: Thump.

Next week: vs. Syracuse, 7:00 p.m., CBSSN (UConn +22.5)

 

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Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Buffalo, 31-10

Recap: We learned nothing about Maryland last week. Buffalo is bad.

We will learn nothing this week. Charlotte ⁠— who has already lost 43-13 to FAU and 41-24 to FCS William & Mary ⁠— is even worse.

NEXT week, though, Maryland plays SMU, which should actually provide some interesting feedback.

This team is as frightening as: Outlook hazy ask again later. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Maryland is literally Michigan’s only opponent who was not in at least moderate danger of losing a game in Week 1.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This says way, way more about the rest of the schedule than it does about Maryland.

When they play Michigan: Hey, neat, we get to learn something about the corners.

Next week: @ Charlotte, 3:30 p.m. (Maryland -27; Charlotte REAL bad)

 

Iowa (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat South Dakota State, 7-3

Recap: I have been writing this column for more than a decade. I have been watching Big Ten football for more than three decades. I thought I had seen everything. Hell, I chronicled 2016 Rutgers. You CANNOT surprise me with football incompetence. But I… have never seen this. It was like watching a cross between a Jordan Peele movie and an even-lower-budget remake of 2003 Tommy Wiseau movie The Room. It was boring and poorly executed but terrifyingly disquieting. In short:

I don’t know what to do with this. So I’m just gonna say some stuff that happened.

• The scoring drives in this game combined for 7 total offensive yards: a 5 yard Iowa field goal drive, an 11 yard SDSU field goal drive, and two safeties totaling -9 yards.
• Spencer Petras (“Petras” from the Latin “petra” meaning “rock,” and “Spencer” from the 1990’s Mall “Spencer’s” meaning “Shitty Gag Gift That Makes Everyone Uncomfortable”) averaged 3.3 yards per dropback. But the worst part is that he was the only Iowa quarterback with a pass attempt. Because Kirk Ferentz said afterward that he never really considered going to the backup, and that he doesn’t anticipate making a QB change going forward. For reference, in his last 9 games, Petras has completed 51% of his passes for 5.9 YPA with 1 TD and 8 INTs.
• Iowa’s offense put up 2.7 yards per play against an FCS opponent.
• Even after you factor out sacks, Iowa managed 1.7 yards per carry on 34 rushes. One third of their carries went for zero or negative yards.
• The teams combined to go 7 of 33 on 3rd down. They ran one (1) play in the red zone; it was a fumble. They combined for 286 yards of offense and 936 yards of punting. They punted 21 times and gained 16 first downs.

I can’t make these into a narrative. Analogy fails me. Hyperbole seems insufficient. I’m sorry. I can’t. I just can’t. I have to sit down.

This team is as frightening as: Reunited and it feels so good.

Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Iowa’s defense was fantastic. SDSU is a pretty good FCS team, and Iowa held them to 120 yards and 2.1 yards per play, outscoring the Iowa offense in the process.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: You know how “let’s have a baby to save the marriage” is typically a bad idea? Turns out, “let’s have a baby, raise him, coach him for four years, get him a job with the Patriots, hire him, and rapidly promote him until he’s running one half of our team to save the program” is a worse idea.

When they play Michigan: Iowa needs to get healthy in a big damn hurry, as they are basically out of dudes on offense. They only had six scholarship receivers on the roster entering the year, and only TWO dressed on Saturday. Three players – Leshon Williams, Arlan Bruce, and Sam LaPorta, got 45 of the 54 intended touches (carries + targets). Unless Keegan Johnson gets healthy, this could get ugly. Uglier? Is that possible?

Next week: ¡El Assico! vs. Iowa State, 4:00 p.m., BTN (Iowa -3.5)

 

Indiana (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Illinois, 23-20

Recap: Indiana surpassed their 2021 conference win total by infinity percent with a 12 play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the last two minutes to steal one from the Illini. Connor Bazelak threw for 330 yards (though he needed 52 attempts to get there), with Cam Camper and D.J. Matthews combining for 265 receiving yards on a whopping 28 targets.

This team is as frightening as: I dunno… moderate heartburn?  Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Connor Bazelak appears to be better than the Jack Tuttle/Donaven McCulley/Grant Gremel fusion cuisine Indiana was running out there post-Penix last year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois hadn’t held a Big Ten team to 1.2 yards per carry this millennium. Now they have. That’s not ideal.

When they play Michigan: Once more into the #CHAOS mines.

Next week: vs. Idaho, 8:00 p.m., BTN

 

Penn State (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Purdue, 35-31

Recap: The bad news is that we didn’t learn anything new about Penn State. The good news is that we didn’t learn anything new about Penn State. Because Penn State hasn’t changed.

Sean Clifford was good until he got banged around, then he was fine. Their line sucked. They couldn’t run the ball against a Purdue front that wasn’t particularly good last year. Their corners were big and super physical. Their receivers are talented. Meet the new Penn State. Same as the old Penn State.

A win is a win, and a conference road win against a team with a pulse is always going to have some value. But we’ll need to see a lot more before we declare them anything else.

This team is as frightening as: A package of hot dog buns. Their season comes in packages of 12, and we’re supposed to ignore the fact that they’re gonna waste 4 of them because they do their job in the other 8. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Clifford had an entire offseason to get healthy, and by the end of Week 1 he was walking like someone who was old enough to watch original first-run episodes of the Six Million Dollar Man. He ain’t gonna last through the season.

Clifford was in good spirits in his postgame press conference

Michigan should worry about: In a veeeeeeeery small sample size, backup true freshman Drew Allar looked better than Clifford. As a bonus, he hasn’t been playing behind that offensive line for very long, so his internal organs are still in their original locations.

When they play Michigan: If Michigan’s defensive line can get pressure on Penn State’s offensive line, they can win this game by a lot. Early returns on both sides of that clash are promising.

Next week: vs. Ohio, noon, ABC (PSU -26)

 

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Michigan, 35-13

Recap: The final score looked good, but this game was surprisingly close in the second half. Western even reached midfield on a 4th quarter drive with a chance to tie the game, but it stalled and MSU scored two more touchdowns to ice the game. That said, even when the outcome was in doubt, the game probably wasn’t as close as the score suggested. MSU outplayed the Broncos handily, and led 21-3 at halftime before playing with their food a bit to open the second half.

This team is as frightening as: When your auto mechanic comes back with a list of a dozen things that need fixing. You’re pretty sure several of the issues are fake or vastly overstated, but you know that regardless you’re going to pay dearly and that this is gonna suck. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: UNLV transfer Jacoby Windmon recorded four sacks en route to being named National Player of the Week. Sure, most of them were against a MAC-level converted guard, but he showed a lot of get-off and a whole lot of bend.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State’s offensive line does not appear to have made significant strides from last year’s porous unit, and while Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard looked good, neither appears to be Kenneth Walker III.

When they play Michigan: There are rumors of a night game, which… oh god.

Next week: vs. Akron, 4:00 p.m., BTN (MSU -34)

 

Rutgers (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Boston College, 22-21

Recap: A nice win for Rutgers. And more importantly, they managed to win while still retaining a bit of that Rutgers flair.

Rutgers uses three quarterbacks on the first three plays ... and here comes Adam Korsak to punt.

— Steve Politi (@StevePoliti) September 3, 2022

And then what had happened was…

THIS is the Rutgers we want to see: moderately competitive, with just a soupçon of dumbassery.

Rutgers sealed the win with a 12 play, 96-yard drive that featured 11 runs and one incomplete pass. They still can't throw the ball for anything, but they may have enough of a run game to challenge for bowl eligibility.

This team is as frightening as: Armadillos in your yard. Goofy looking and mostly a threat on the ground, but they’re deceptively hard to catch and can cause a surprising amount of damage. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Between Gavin Wimsatt and Al-Shadee Salaam, Rutgers may have found a way to generate explosive plays in the running game; Rutgers had 10 total runs of 20+ yards last year, and they had 4 on Saturday.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The one thing that could have taken Rutgers from mediocre to mediocre-plus was freshman Wimsatt coming along in the passing game. He got significant playing time with Noah Vedral out with an injury, but it doesn’t appear that Wimsatt has made The Leap yet.

When they play Michigan: Rutgers might throw seven passes the entire game.

Next week: vs. Wagner, 4:00 p.m., BTN

 

Nebraska (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Northwestern, 31-28; Beat North Dakota 38-17

Recap: I know, I know. I can’t just post the BoJack clip every week. You demand more. But… BoJack, man. BoJack.

I’m sure you know this by now, but Nebraska, having just taken an 11-point lead in the season opener, attempted a surprise onside kick. It failed, because Nebraska. Northwestern scored on the short field and went on to win.

To be clear, Nebraska didn’t lose because of that onside kick. They lost because they didn’t score on any of their last six offensive drives. They lost because the allowed RYAN HILINSKI to go off in the first half, and Northwestern’s running game to go off in the second half. They lost because they couldn’t tackle. They lost because their linebackers were lost and their defensive tackles were ragdolled. They lost because they couldn’t run the ball or pick up a blitz or catch the football. They lost for the same reason they’ve lost so many games in the last few years: they suck at so many of the fundamental, teachable aspects of football. They have talented football players, but they can’t make those football players play football well. They’re inland Maryland.

But.

While Scott Frost’s tenure didn’t end with 9:09 left in the 3rd quarter of the season opener, that moment sure as hell demonstrated why the Frost Era is going to come to a merciful end sooner rather than later. Because the entire premise of Scott Frost’s return was, “Nebraska will be fine if they can just avoid the bullshit.” They had to show that they can just play a regular-ass football game, and that cutting out the bullshit is sufficient to get them back on track. And what are you doing with 36 minutes into the season? When things are actually going well? ACTIVELY COURTING BULLSHIT.

And not subtly courting it, either. Not a quick suggestive glance or sending an Edible Arrangement on Bullshit’s birthday. No, we’re talking about standing outside Bullshit’s house with a boom box over your head playing Thunderstruck. Texting Bullshit “u up” at 1:30 in the morning followed by an unsolicited picture of your corncob. BEGGING Bullshit to make an appearance.

Scott Frost strikes me as a man who doesn’t have a plan. He has ideas. He’s Entertainment 720 in a hoodie, and he refuses to listen to Ben or Roy or Detlef. Which is why he’s got a team that he ⁠— possibly correctly ⁠— didn’t trust to hold an 11 point lead against a Northwestern team that finished 3-9 last year and who would absolutely be willing to play things in a bullshit-free manner.

This team is as frightening as: A Michelin star chef with an Easy Bake Oven. At some point it doesn’t matter how good you could be if you’ve only got the tools to produce cupcakes. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Nebraska is still the 4th most talented roster in the Big Ten.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska’s weaknesses ⁠— interior defensive line and linebackers, interior offensive line, the ability to pick up a blitz, and a general refusal to tackle people when given the opportunity ⁠— line up perfectly to the stuff you have to do well to beat Michigan.

When they play Michigan: Maybe Interim Head Coach Mark Whipple will get things organized by the time they show up in Ann Arbor.

Next week: vs. Georgia Southern, 7:30 p.m., FS1 (Nebraska -23)

 

Illinois (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wyoming, 38-6; Lost at Indiana, 23-20

Recap: Illinois should be 2-0.

Even setting aside the fact that the Illini were robbed of a touchdown against Indiana, SP+ still had them with a 65% postgame win expectancy. They outgained Indiana in total yards and on a per-play basis. They held Indiana to 1.2 yards per carry. They were probably the better team.

This team is as frightening as: The Space Jam team. They’re reasonably well coached, and they have one good player, but they just don’t have the talent right now. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: As part of the influence of new Offensive Coordinator Barry Lunney Jr., Illinois is playing noticeably faster. They’re averaging 85.5 offensive plays per game thus far after averaging just 65.8 plays per game last season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois is the least talented team in the Big Ten. Surely, there’s no way BERT can turn that roster into something more threatening than Scott Frost’s squad… is there? Surely not. Surely.

When they play Michigan: There is a non-zero chance Illinois is going to wear Chase Brown into the ground before this game. He’s averaging 27.5 carries per game through two games, which would have led the nation in four of the last five years.

Next week: vs. Virginia, 4:00 p.m., ESPNU (Illinois -4.5)

 

Ohio State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Notre Dame, 21-10

Recap: Define “First World Problems”: asking whether a double-digit win over a Top 5 opponent in your season opener is a catastrophe or merely a disaster.

In a Craig Krenzel Bizarro World game, Ohio State’s defense was dominant, but the offense sputtered for much of the evening. The Buckeyes trailed at halftime, but when they finally Ron Swanson Eating A Banana’d their way to acknowledging that they had to run the dang ball they mashed through a couple of scores and won going away.

The defensive developments were more interesting. The Buckeye defense looked, for the first time in many years, modern. They showed different looks, they brought pressure from different places, and they generally looked organized and athletic. That said, Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buchner was making his first start, on the road, at night, at the Shoe, and looked like it. Still, an encouraging outing for the Ohio State defense.

This team is as frightening as: oh great Happy learned how to putt Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We all sort of took for granted that Ohio State was going to completely and instantly restock at receiver because they have Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka and OH MY GOD SO MANY RECEIVERS STOP IT BRIAN HARTLINE, but they did lose two top-11 NFL draft picks, and CJ Stroud happened to throw for the lowest YPA of his career. It could be a coincidence. Or…

Michigan should worry about: What do we think the odds are that Ohio State WON’T fix the offense in the next three months? One in twenty bazillion?

When they play Michigan: You can’t make me think about that yet.

Next week: vs. Arkansas State, noon, BTN (OSU -43.5)