Iowatch! Week 4 - Yeah, About That…
Intro:
Welcome back to Iowatch!
Before we get into this week’s crash landing…just for funsies, let’s squint at Iowa’s 2022: Iowa’s opponents scored 173 points on the season, for an average of 13.3 PPG. The Hawkeyes’ 17.7 PPG was enough for 8 wins. Only Ohio State really blew Iowa out of the water; Michigan beat them resoundingly, but it didn’t appear on the scoreboard.
Guys, if (and it’s a big “if”) Iowa actually manages to average 25 PPG this season, they should be able to MARCH through the B1G West like a bunch of methed-up Germans blitzing through Ardennes and into France. They could be at Paris (Indianapolis) before we know it.
If you want to catch up on what we’re tracking, why, or how high a mountain Iowa has to climb, read Week 2, Week 3, and my PPG Forum Post (with a really bad math error in 1986 stats).
Week 4 Update
One-Sentence* Summary:
People don't think it be like it is, but it do.
A forum post yesterday revealed some Epic Fail stats.
Iowa lost to Penn State 31-0 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Old Frenemy Cade McNamara completed 5 of 14 passes for 42 yards, fumbled twice, and got hit so many times that Sean Clifford, who probably hasn’t left his ice bath since Penn State’s Rose Bowl win over Utah, undoubtedly winced in sympathy. Old Frenemy “Leading Receiver” Erick All caught 3 passes for 35 yards and fumbled away a drive. The team had 4 first downs in the entire game. The team had 4 fumbles lost (and 2 more they recovered) in the entire game. 76 total yards. FOR THE GAME.
If DC Phil Parker doesn’t murder “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz this week, I’ll consider it a minor miracle: Iowa’s defense was on the field MORE THAN 45 MINUTES, was obliged to notch 100 tackles, and STILL allowed less than 4 yards per rush and less than 5 yards per passing attempt. Iowa lost their #1 ranked SP+ defense yesterday (to Michigan!), but dammit they keep it in our hearts.
Saving Private Brian
You held onto it as long as you could, didn't you?
Futility Rate
7 of 10 drives this game went nowhere, and a couple that did…“nowhere” would have been an improvement…
RB Receptions are Moneyball, Dammit
For reference, as of Week 4, Donovan “Please Turn Into Saquon Barkley Dude…” Edwards has 100 yards on 11 receptions.
Sigh. Cade, let’s chat. You know how to do this dude. You were the QB who turned around Michigan’s RB receiving stats. Please find your RBs.
I honestly don’t know if he’s been holding onto the ball hoping for the big play to appear (this is my leading theory, and apparently Brian Ferentz agrees...which makes me nervous...), or if RBs are required to be full-time pass blockers on all dropbacks and aren’t an option. But Cade ain’t Cadeing.
One-Phase Football
After Week 4, Iowa’s SP+ Gap is WORSE than when I started this diary series. Iowa now has the largest gap in the nation between offense and defense rankings. If you’re curious about the prior teams in this section, Air Force has their gap down in a big way as their offense improves, Iowa State actually widened their gap but not as much as Iowa, and North Texas continues to have the worst defense in the country…but their offense actually got worse too so now the gap doesn’t seem so big. Lol. “Teams that are bad all around” are not as interesting.
Given the still-abysmal offense, a drop in defensive SP+ from 1 to 2 is actually a really bad thing. Anything worse than the absolute top defense in the nation probably spells doom for the Hawkeyes.
Who’s the new #1 SP+ defense? Michigan! Who’s the new #1 in total SP+? Michigan!
Finally Here: the “Hey, It Could Be Worse” section!
NORTHWESTERN, come on down! With an offense ranked 110th in SP+, Northwestern takes the prize in the “Hey, It Could Be Worse” section.
Whither Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska, you ask? Hanging out 14, 21 and 23 spots better than Iowa’s offense, respectively. Gonna be a minute before they join this section. IF they join this section.
September 25th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
It warms the cockles of my cold, dead heart that so many of you were looking forward to this Diary.
Whether it's schadenfreude or sheer morbid curiosity, dissecting Iowa football is a fascinating thing.
EDIT: a link was broken. Here's the forum post from yesterday
September 25th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
I am following along because the whole L'affaire Ferentz (pere et fils) is like watching one of the those complex family dynamic novels brought to life mixed in with my favorite team sport. Bearing Cade McNamara no animus because he was an important part of an amazing season.
Yet despite all of these obvious indicators of ineptitude the Hawkeyes could still salvage a good season because of the general what-are-they-doing nature of the Big Ten West (ex: Minnesota Northwestern). Outside of Wisconsin, any of the other West teams could easily slip on a banana peel and gift Iowa a game.
It will be interesting to see how the Spartans plan against them. MSU is playing to audition for their next job and/or team. Iowa is clinging to the hope that they can get an easy game to balance the ledger.
September 26th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
Looking at the schedule remaining, Iowa plays the following with their SP+ defense rankings next to the school
- MSU. (40th in SP+ in defense...somehow)
- Purdue (76th)
- @Wisconin (18th)
- Minnesota (22nd)
- Northwestern (71st)
- Rutgers (43rd)
- Illinois (30th)
- @Nebraska (28th)
While not a murderers row, that's 6 of their final 8 opponents who have top 50 defenses in SP+. Objects in the rearview mirror? Defensive SP+ rankings: Utah State is 118th in SP+, Iowa State is 11th, WMU is 128th, and PSU is 3rd. Iowa managed something close to 25 points or more against only Utah State and WMU who are both within striking distance of being the worst defense in college football. Against Iowa State they managed 13 offensive points and 0 against PSU.
September 26th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Hey, quick question: ESPN+ all of a sudden started denying me access to SP+ metrics yesterday. I have ESPN+ through my Disney+ package. Are you having any problems? Or do you have a different source?
September 27th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
Mine's working - not sure?
September 25th, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
If Kirk doesn't move the goalposts to keep Brian, I'll eat my hat*. I bet instead of 25 ppg, they get to say they scored 25 points in half the games. That's still a reach, but they just need to show a pulse against MSU, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern and Illinois or Nebraska and he's safe.
(*Hat eating as serious a promise as firing Brian Feretz)
September 25th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
I was on pins and needles for this, and I'm getting even angrier about the last minute TD against Western. Ferentz is definitely "offensive".
This has to be among the top 3, all-time, worst nepotism situations across all industries.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
The B1G West may end life with the ignominy of fielding the collectively worst conference offense in SP+ history. It is unwatchable football.
September 26th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I will admit a morbid curiosity had me watching and being somewhat entertained by the end of the Minn/NW game.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
I found it interesting to read a few "free" Iowa message boards to gauge the frustration of their fans.
Some takeaways:
1. Iowa has a large group of dedicated fans - far better than MSU - MSU didn't even sell out (or at least have butts in seats) for HC game against a B1G opponent. Even in the leanest of years (late Fry, early KF), Iowa fans still packed the place. Plus, they travel to bowl games, unlike Sparty in the Kraft Hunger Bowl.
2. Cade overestimated his own worth and that of All. Lachey was their offense and he is out for the year. I have no ill feelings toward the guy since he won 12 games and broke the streak vs. Ohio. But he's finding just how good he had it here after all. And how far behind he was vs. JJ.
3. Their fans have totally resigned themselves that BF is there as long as KF is there. Many even surmise that KF is running the offense through his sock puppet.
4. KF has the support of AD and Prez similar to Lloyd during the 2005 and start and end of 2007 seasons. He's the 4th winningest coach in B1G history (yes being somewhere 24 years helps a lot), behind only Stagg, Woody, and Bo. Just like a lot of people wanted Lloyd to leave after The Horror and Horror II (Oregon decimation), it's not going to happen.
5. Their fans also believe the D has lost more than they gained - three starters were drafted in the first 3 rounds plus they lost a key DL for online gambling (on an Iowa team but not football) for the season - another BS decision like JH's 4-game Hamburglar suspension.
6. Fans still believe it's all in at Wisconsin - win and go to B1G title game. Lose and get a NY day invite anyway since they bring fans in droves most years.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
But Lloyd did leave after the Horror. Also, with the way the West is...I'm not sure they're wrong about #6. Minus the NY6 invite.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
This has become one of the features of the week for me at MGoBlog.
anyhow, on the 25 ppg watch, Iowa has scored 85, meaning they are at -15 from the target.
In East-West terms...Rutgers and Wisconsin play in 2 weeks. If Rutgers wins in Camp Randall, it'll cement just how far gone the West is (and really also be a validation for Schiano, who took over a program that was one of the worst in all of FBS in 2019).
September 25th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
"Saving Private Brian"
HA! But in this movie Captain Miller loses half his team to marauding Spartans, only to run into a field of exploding Boilermakers. Then he and a couple stragglers make it to a village only to find it was overrun, and Badgers have been feasting. A bloody scrap of fabric that says "FEREN" is found.
SP+ Rankings
Gee, Iowa, you have a really big gap. Gee, Iowa, you have a really big gap.
September 25th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
This is just hilarious. It's just so damn obvious to anyone that the only thing holding Iowa back is the offense. Does Kirk really not care about making Iowa a competitor? Is he just content with muddling through and cashing a nice paycheck every month?
Go out and take a chance on an up and coming offensive mind. Go full spread/air raid/boom or bust offense. Your offense is going to come off the field quickly either way. You might as well put up some points in the process.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
Just for fun, in the last decade Iowa has 86 wins, that is 8.6 per year, they will stick with KF and even BF as it manages to win them enough to be talked about every year. Also just FYI, we have only 87 wins...let that sink in...for most of the past decade Iowa has been better than us. KF manages to win games even if they are zero fun to watch, the university will tolerate losses like the one they got on saturday as long as he continues to make Iowa relevant.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
it was not a great decade
September 25th, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^
The B1G West being a trash heap also helps inflate numbers if you're even reasonably competent.
September 25th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
Dear God. These stats are hard to look at. It almost feels like Iowa is trying to be bad.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Oscar Gamble always gets an upvote.
I think this is going to be like the old saw about going broke:
"How'd you lose all the money?"
"Two ways. Gradually, and then suddenly."
Sooner than we might think, Iowa's going to have its suddenly moment.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
It's all just sooooo remarkable. I didn't think it could get worse (better???) to read this throughout the season, and yet, here we are.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
A new weekly favorite!!!
Keep up the good work PopeLando!!!
September 25th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
Has a power conference program ever seen such a drastic difference in offense and defense as Iowa?
September 26th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
I'll address this more fully in the intro to the next Iowatch!...
But the answer to your question is YES. Once.
If Iowa in 2022 is the bar (#120 offense and #1 defense on a Points per Drive basis):
Exactly 1 time since 2007 has there been this kind of mismatch. In 2015, Boston College had the #127 offense and #5 defense on a Points Per Drive basis. Don Brown was DC.
Everyone else who met or exceeded that kind of gap was named "Navy". Texas Tech got close once.
September 26th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
I so enjoy this. It's a train wreck of futility, and I can't look away. It's even better given that two former members of the Michigan family crapped on us on their way out the door to Iowa City.
As I said in another thread, you made your bed, now you gotta sleep in it.
For decades, my feelings for Iowa were 90% positive (awww, look, Michigan Lite) and 10% frustration (how do these sumbitches keep beating us at Kinnick??)
Now, my feelings for Iowa are still mostly positive, but tinged moreso with morbid curiosity and fascination, like haha, Cade and Erick bailed to THIS? Let's see how far down it goes.....
September 27th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Brian Ferentz is no Skip Holtz......
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