About Last Week

Looks about how I remember things going [Barron]

The Road Ahead

UConn (1-2)

Last week: Lost to Syracuse, 48-14

Recap: This one was 17-0 before UConn picked up its first 1st down of the game. Syracuse scored on its first seven drives of the game (five touchdowns and two field goals). UConn finally forced a punt towards the end of the third quarter, which they promptly muffed and gave back to Syracuse. The Orange scored a 39-yard touchdown on the next play.

On the one hand, Syracuse might just be pretty good. On the other hand, remember UConn’s stronger-than-expected showing against defending Mountain West champions Utah State? Yeah, Utah State lost to Weber State 35-7 this week.

This team is as frightening as: Diet Coke breath. Fear Level = 1.7

Michigan can sleep soundly about: UConn can’t throw the ball at all. They are #120 in the country at 5.3 yards per attempt. And while Brian Ferentz might stare at that number like he’s Michael Keaton watching Vince Carter in the 2000 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, the rest of the world is unimpressed.

“He threw it HOW far???”

Michigan should worry about: They can’t be worse than Hawai’i. Like, mathematically, it is not possible for UConn to be worse. I have consulted the preeminent scholars in the field of sucky football, and I am assured that the limit has been reached.

When they play Michigan: Cheer for Cade McNamara you nincompoops.

This week: @ Michigan, noon, ABC (UConn +46)

 

Maryland (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Charlotte, 56-21

Recap: As noted last week, Charlotte is probably the worst team in the continental United States, and they looked like it. At least on defense. Taulia Tagovialoa threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs, and the Terps racked up 617 total yards. Their ten drives resulted in eight touchdowns, one interception, and one punt (on their last full possession) before kneel-down time.

Defensively, things were somewhat less apocalyptic. The… /quick Google search/… 49ers put up 388 total yards on nearly 4.9 yards per play. This wasn’t all garbage time, either, as Charlotte scored 14 first half points on two long touchdown drives. The Terps clamped down in the second and third quarters. Does that make the day good? Bad? Who knows.

Why is this turtle yelling at me

This team is as frightening as: A skilled button-masher in Street Fighter or Mortal Kombat. You can practice and practice and learn all of the nuances of all the different fighters, and then this dude shows up and is like “punch punch punch punch kick kick kick punch kick punch kick puuuuuuuuuunch” and have a not-unreasonable shot at winning. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: This will be a massive, massive step up in competition for Michigan. The offense is obviously better than the defense, but their athletes on defense will be in another class from the fine folks Michigan will have played up to that point.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan hasn’t beaten Maryland by fewer than 21 points since Jim Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor.

When they play Michigan: This one is getting the Big Noon Saturday treatment for some reason.

This week: vs. SMU, 7:30 p.m., FS1 (Maryland -3.5)

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Iowa (1-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa State, 10-7

Recap: What do you do when the system you built works perfectly, but doesn’t produce the thing it was supposed to produce? Like, if Ford spent years building, outfitting, and tooling a factory that would take various materials and prefabricated parts and assemble them into sensible midsized sedans, but when they turned on the machines and the assembly line and let everything run for a while a neon pink golf cart with World War I-style tank treads and a top speed of 4 miles an hour rolled off the ramp. Then another. Then another. And you checked all the various stops on the assembly line, and all of the machines and workers seemed to be doing what they were supposed to be doing.

Iowa got EXACTLY what Iowa Football has spent decades honing their program to do. They turned Iowa State over three times, including two in the end zone. They blocked two punts. Iowa State spotted them a 7-0 lead in the first three minutes on one of the blocked punts, and also handed them a free chance to tie the game with 20 yards of penalties with 9 seconds left in the game. Iowa State walked through the spooky Kinnick haunted house and poked every creature inside with a stick.

And Iowa State won. Because Iowa scored seven points.

The stats were as bad as you could imagine. 150 total yards at 2.9 yards per play. 11 first downs in 13 offensive drives. Spencer Petras completed 44.4% of his passes for 92 yards (3.4 YPA) and a pick. They averaged 2.3 yards per carry. Their longest play of the day was 14 yards. They attempted zero passes that traveled 20 yards in the air. They targeted one wide receiver ⁠— Arlan Bruce ⁠— all day. They targeted him 9 times. They completed 1 of those passes, for a total of 9 yards. It should have been a touchdown, but Bruce tripped over the 5-yard line. They fumbled two plays later.

I know we live in an overly policed, overly incarcerated, and overly litigious society. But goddammit someone needs to do something about this.

This team is as frightening as: No one will ever be more Rock. We may have to consider retiring the Rock after this season.

Fear Level = 5

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I’m genuinely not sure which of these stats I want to follow for “Iowa is the worst X since the year Y” purposes. As a non-exhaustive sampling, Iowa is averaging:

• 2.8 yards per offensive play (#131 of 131 teams nationally)
• 158 total yards per game (#131)
• 1 play of 20+ yards per game, and 4.5 plays of 10+ yards per game. (both #131)
• 3.9 yards per pass attempt, with a passer rating of 69 (both #130)
• 1.9 yards per carry (#126! Progress!)
• A 25% third down conversion rate (#123! Now we’re cooking!)
• 7 points per game, 5 offensive points per game, 0.5 touchdowns per game (#131 with a big ol’ bullet)

It’s also worth noting that Iowa is currently averaging fewer passing yards per game (100.5) than former Iowa receiver Charlie Jones is averaging as a receiver at Purdue (143.0). There are currently three FBS players averaging more yards from scrimmage than Iowa on the year (including Chase Brown and Evan Hull), and more than 100 quarterbacks averaging more passing yards per game than Iowa is averaging total yards per game.

Michigan should worry about: Iowa still has a really good defense that is surrendering less than 3.2 yards per play (2.3 yards per carry and 4.3 yards per pass). They’ve only allowed only 13 points through 2 games.

In terms of “well OUR side of the hull remains watertight, Captain Smith” arguments go, there are worse ones.

When they play Michigan: 17 points is almost certainly enough to beat this team. You want odds that Iowa is going to hold Michigan to fewer than 17 points?

This week: vs. Nevada, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Iowa -23)

 

Indiana (2-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Idaho, 35-22

Indiana

Recap: This could have been bad. Indiana trailed Idaho 10-0 at the half, but they scored touchdowns on all five of their second half drives to pull away comfortably-ish.

This team is as frightening as: Trying to open the packaging for a child’s toy. Yes, you will succeed, but why on earth do they have to make this so unnecessarily complicated? This should be easy. Yet here I am, time after time, trying to get the scissors into this little opening to cut the 73 plastic straps holding this extremely unbreakable piece of plastic in place. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: ***A WILD RUNNING GAME APPEARS***

Indiana (6.6 YPC) cracked 6 yards per carry for the first time since 2019, and for only the third time since Tevin Coleman left in 2014.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Connor Bazelak averaged 6.9 yards per attempt in 2019, 7.3 yards per attempt in 2020, 6.8 yards per attempt in 2021, and is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt in 2022. He may get better, but he is last on my list of “Potential Breakout Candidates Once Big Ten Play Starts.”

Okay, second-to-last.

When they play Michigan: I hear central Indiana is lovely this time of year.

This week: vs. Western Kentucky, noon, BTN (IU -6.5)

 

Penn State (2-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ohio, 46-10

Recap: As with most things Ohio, Ohio Football is bad.

On the plus side for Penn State, they exceeded 5 yards per carry for the first time since 2019, led by highly-touted freshman Nick Singleton’s 179 yards on 10 carries. Penn State still struggled more than expected on a down-to-down basis to move Ohio’s defense, but Singleton busted runs of 70, 48, and 44 yards. Those runs were aided by some… uh… tackling issues and questionable safety play, but Singleton showed the speed and balance you would want to see from a feature back to pay off those mistakes.

One other nugget was that Drew Allar statistically outperformed Sean Clifford. Just sayin’.

This team is as frightening as: Having done this for a decade or so, every year there is something surprising with every team. Every single one. Even if it’s something small. Penn State refuses to surprise me in any way. Penn State is Penn State, for better or worse. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: They’re fine.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They’re fine.

When they play Michigan: Don’t get me wrong. They’re not bad. They’re probably pretty good. James Franklin runs a solid Also Receiving Votes program, and those votes are deserved.

This week: @ Auburn, 3:30 p.m., CBS (PSU -3)

 

Michigan State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Akron, 52-0

All mascots should be kangaroos

Recap: We still don’t have much to take away from MSU’s first two games. This week, as with most of last week, the Mentos went into the Diet Coke, and the Diet Coke did what you would expect. There is only so much to be gleaned from measuring the height of the geyser.

If you want to try, the running game looked pretty good (though not super explosive), but Payton Thorne has not been outstanding. Through two games against modest competition, he has completed under 58% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His YPA is a respectable 8.6, but his passer rating of 143 is 24 points lower than his non-conference passer rating from last year. He is currently only barely above the PetrasPetras Line (i.e. double Spencer Petras’s passer rating of 70), and well under the PetrasPetras+ Line (i.e. 2.5 times Spencer Petras’s passer rating).

If you are unfamiliar, these are the traditional demarcations of quarterback competency in the Big Ten. The current PetrasPetras tiers:

• PetrasPetras+: McCarthy, O’Connell, Morgan, Stroud, Tagovialoa, Warren
• PetrasPetras: Mertz, Thompson, Clifford, Thorne, DeVito
• Sub-PetrasPetras: Hilinski, Bazelak, McNamara, Bowman
• Petras: Petras

Anyway, State has been fine. The offense has been fine. The defense has been fine. We’ll learn much more this week when they travel to the West Coast to take on mid-major power Washington and Michael Penix. Penix has over 600 career passing yards in two games against MSU, and is currently completing nearly 70% of his passes at 10.3 YPA for the Huskies.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of multiple Spencer Petrases. Like, for those familiar with the gray goo apocalypse, that, but with all biomass slowly morphing into Spencer Petras. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: MSU currently leads the nations with 6.0 sacks per game, and is averaging 10.0 TFLs per game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State has recovered a nation-leading 6 fumbles, and has recovered 75% of opponents’ fumbles. Surely that kind of fumble luck won’t continue. Surely.

When they play Michigan: Please keep Kevin Warren out of the replay booth.

This week: @ Washington, 7:30 p.m., ABC (MSU +3)

 

Rutgers (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wagner, 66-7

Recap: In an EGREGIOUS breach of Big Ten protocol, and for the first time since joining the conference, Rutgers did not punt. Not once. Nine touchdowns, a field goal, a missed field goal, and an interception. Rutgers’ refusal to use their best player seems ill-advised, but what do I know.

As far as the boring, perfunctory “offense and defense” portion of the game, Rutgers was a 50-point favorite to SP+ and won by 59, so… success!

This team is as frightening as: A Costco parking lot on a Saturday. No individual trip is likely to result in a crash, but the math says that eventually a crash is inevitable. Fear Level = 4

/’Taken’ voice/
“Good luck”

Michigan should worry about: Opponent caveats notwithstanding, they have only allowed 48 rushing yards through 2 games against Boston College and Wagner. Rutgers hadn’t held any single opponent to 48 rushing yards since their season opener against Norfolk State in 2015.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We probably can’t “notwithstand” the opponents. Virginia Tech held Boston College to 4 yards rushing, and Fordham held Wagner to 2.4 yards per carry. These teams probably just suck at running the ball.

When they play Michigan: Sherrone and Matt, if you find a binder labeled “2021 Rutgers offensive game plan,” do not open. It’s haunted.

This week: @ Temple, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+ (Rutgers -17.5) (Side note: If you ever wanted a sign from the Football Gods to not watch a certain game, “2:00 on ESPN+” is a pretty dang strong one)

 

Nebraska (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Georgia State, 45-42

You're free, Scott. Fly away. [Barron]

Recap: At no point did this look like it was working.

That doesn’t mean it COULDN’T have worked, of course. Everyone thought it was going to work, at least to some extent. The vast majority of predictions when Scott Frost was hired fell somewhere a the range between “complete return to past glory” and “competitive-ish in the Big Ten West.” NO ONE had Frost finishing 16-31 overall, 10-26 in Big Ten play, never making a bowl game, failing to reach .500 in any season, and never finishing higher than fifth in the Big Ten West.

The biggest glimmer of hope was a preseason #24 ranking in 2019, which they promptly lost by losing to Colorado. If you want to strain, you can say, "if they hadn't lost by 3 points to Iowa in the last week of 2019 that would have sent them to a bowl game, maybe that would have done it,” or "if they had just won a statistically plausible number of their one-score games, they may have made a bowl game in 2021 which could have jumpstarted things.” But, in reality, it only seemed like they might be getting closer because it felt like they eventually HAD to get there. 

I imagine this is what it was like to be a spectator watching an early attempt at powered flight. Not at Kitty Hawk, though. For the guys who tried before that and failed hilariously. I imagine watching a contraption bumping down some field or dirt road and expecting it to take to the air any moment. And I wouldn’t be *wrong* to expect it to take off. That was what these clever inventors told me would happen. They had blueprints and diagrams and everything. But after it crashed into a grove of trees over yonder ⁠— at ground level, of course ⁠— I can see myself looking back at what had apparently just been a bicycle with wings and realized that it had never been close. There was no mechanical adjustment to be made, no runway long enough, and no set of meteorological conditions favorable enough to get that thing in the air.

Scott Frost’s failure was as clean and uncomplicated as you’ll find. He wasn’t sunk because of off-field scandals. It wasn’t internal athletic department politics or shifting conference power dynamics. It wasn’t a locker room schism. It wasn’t catastrophic personnel decisions or losing the transfer portal wheel of fortune. It was football. His teams were just consistently bad at football. They lost a lot of games. They were going to continue to lose a lot of games.

Some fantastical machines are just not meant to fly.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Nebraska’s new plan is so good, they spent an extra $7.5 Million to get it started three weeks early. Imagine how good that plan must be.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska just allowed a record-for-an-opponent-in-Lincoln 642 yards of offense at 7.5 yards per play. They surrendered 35 first downs and allowed their opponent to convert 9 of 13 third downs. They allowed 409 yards passing and 7.8 yards per carry rushing. They allowed drives of 80, 77, 75, 75, 75, 75, 74, and 67 yards.

Their unstoppable opponent? Georgia Southern, a Clay Helton team that finished 3-9 last year and was in their second game of a COMPLETELY new offense after moving away from the triple option.

Fire him again, guys.

When they play Michigan: Michigan/Nebraska will be played on the 52nd anniversary of the Exploding Whale of Florence, Oregon. A once-majestic but now very much dead sperm whale had washed up on shore, and overconfident local officials had the brilliant idea to clear it out using 1,000 pounds of dynamite to blast the mighty beast all to hell. If it worked, the entire whale problem would be gone, and everything would be back to normal in short order. But instead of vaporizing the whale, the dynamite yeeted giant whale chunks up to a quarter of a mile, threatening nearby humans and property, exposing the whale’s rotting innards to the world, and leaving a giant mess that would have to be painstakingly removed by traditional means over a long, smelly period.

There is no metaphor here. Just a cool story about dynamite.

This week: sigh. vs. Oklahoma, noon, FOX (Nebraska +13)

 

Illinois (2-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Virginia, 24-3

Recap:

It isn’t that Virginia is particularly great ⁠— SP+ has their defense as one of the worst in the Power 5 ⁠— but they are a decent offensive team, and Illinois completely shut them down. The Cavaliers only gained 222 yards at 3.4 yards per play. Offensively, Illinois continues to run the hell out of the ball, with Chase Brown rushing for 146 yards on 20 carries.

If they can just get a LITTLE more out of Danny Tommy DeVito and the passing game, they might have something here. But they’re only getting 6.4 yards per attempt, and only 9.5 yards per completion (#115 nationally). Through three games, they only have 2 passing plays of 30+ yards.

This team is as frightening as: The completely unnecessary extra dramatic plot twist at the end of a movie. Like in Speed where now the TRAIN can’t stop, or whatever the hell the end of the stupid Indiana Jones movie with the aliens. We’ve already calibrated our emotional response to the end of the season here, folks. You can’t just throw a Suddenly Dangerous Illinois in there. It’s dumb and unnecessary. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Chase Brown leads the nation at 168.0 yards per game. That isn’t solely a result of volume, either; he’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Juice Williams is out of eligibility.

When they play Michigan: This originally looked like a bit of a trap game. At this pace, the Nebraska game is going to be the trap game, with Michigan looking ahead to the real game against the #21 ranked Illini.

This week: Bye

 

Ohio State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Arkansas State, 45-12

Recap: The most relevant Ohio State information had very little to do with the events in Columbus, where Ohio State had a comfortable but kinda sleepy win over Arkansas State. No, the news came from across the way in South Bend, where Ohio State’s vanquished Top Five opponent dropped a big ol’ leprechaun egg against Marshall. Suddenly, Ohio State’s domination of Notre Dame looks like it was at least partly a “Notre Dame’s got quarterback issues and a lack of any playmaking receivers other than Michael Mayer” thing, and not so much a “Ohio State’s linebackers can now read minds and teleport” thing.

The offense, unfortunately but as expected, reverted to the form we'd expected, with CJ Stroud throwing for 351 yards and 4 TDs at 14.6 yards per attempt. 

This team is as frightening as: The Bolton Strid, the little creek in Yorkshire, England. Sure, it looks kinda dangerous, but that is deceiving; it is actually MURDEROUSLY dangerous and has killed everyone who has ever fallen in. Fear Level = 10

Fancy a swim?

Michigan should worry about: Even with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming out, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Egbuka combined for 11 catches for 302 yards and 4 TDs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: For as organizationally improved as the defense appears to be, they haven’t generated a single turnover through two weeks. They also didn’t dominate Arkansas State, allowing three first half scoring drives of 56, 50, and 58 yards (though they all ended in field goals).

When they play Michigan: Football Armageddon III: Armageddon.

This week: vs. Toledo, 7:00 p.m., FOX (OSU -31.5)

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (0-2, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Middle Tennessee State, 34-19

Recap: For context, MTSU lost 44-7 to James Madison in Week 1, in James Madison’s first ever game as an FCS team. So, while the Transitive Property of Football is not absolute, a 52-point transitive loss to a team that was in the FCS like 20 minutes ago is strongly suggestive.

If you want the good news, Clay Millen threw for 256 yards at 8.5 YPA and three touchdowns. The bad news is that he was sacked…

Maybe we hold off on the plans for the All-Michigan-EDGE-Player Heisman Ceremony for another week or two.

This week: @ Washington State, 5:00 p.m., PAC-12 Network (CSU +16.5)