FORMATION NOTES: MSU was still very MSU in this game, alternating between shotgun and single-back formations from under center. They frequently looked like crack-sweep era Harbaugh, although no crack sweeps came out:

Michigan is in a four man front with Barrett (23) lined up as a SAM; this was their most common look but they used their usual  array of three man fronts with a lot of weird stuff that doesn't work very well. Safety count and depth varied wildly. You'll note that on the above snap Michigan's deepest player is at seven yards.

For much of the second half they were two-high and shot someone down; cover two safeties getting over the top of routes at the sideline did not happen.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: On the DL, Paye and Hutchinson were almost omnipresent. Vilain and Upshaw got avfew snaps each. Ojabo also got in but as a SAM. DT rotated between Kemp, Jeter, Hinton, and Welschof with Kemp by far the most used.

VanSumeren got 15 snaps as the 3-3-5 SAM; as mentioned Ojabo was out there as a SAM but only on passing downs.

At LB, Ross and McGrone ominpresent until McGrone went out, and then Shibley was in for McGrone the whole way. Similar situation at viper, where Barrett got almost every snap until going out late; Solomon got the last few drives.

In the secondary, Hill, Green, and Hawkins got every snap. Gray got replaced by Perry in the third Q. Paige got a dozen or so snaps as a fifth DB.

[After THE JUMP: I have no expectation you will click, it's okay]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Duo	Kemp	2
Kemp(+0.5) and Hinton(+0.5) are both able to stick at the LOS, more or less, and McGrone(+0.5) comes up to finish unmolested.
O27	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Hill	3
Hill(+1) sent off the corner and has a long way to go to get to this but does, tackling from behind at about the LOS. Hutch(+0.5) also there to help tackle. Jeter(+0.5) drove his guy back to force it into this gap but I wonder if he went the wrong way because this gives Hill more distance to cover. No support because 3-3-5 and McGrone gets a G unmolested but this is a passing down so ok.
O30	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Dime even	Press two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Green	Inc
Green(+2, cover +2) dominates the obvious hitch at sticks and PBUs. Ball out too fast to sack but McGrone(+1, pressure +2) comes clean around the edge. Hutch(+1) blasted the RT and drew the RB so no one left for McGrone.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O29	1	10	Ace tight	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	N/A	7
RPS here as Gray(+0.5) turns it in at the numbers and Hawkins(+0.5) fires down from ten yards, engages, and gets off a block to tackle. Both these guys played it solidly but still a good gain. RPS -1.
O36	2	3	Pistol 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	4	Dumpoff	Hutchinson	6
Just bad luck here as Hutchinson(+0.5) and Paye(+0.5) almost get there but not quite; QB flushes and dumps an inaccurate pass to his RB at the LOS that stops him; McGrone(-1, tackling -1) is flowing out like this pass is going to be on point but the stop means RB can stumble past him to convert. Pressure +1.
O42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	BVS	28
MSU checks into this as they see BVS threatening blitz on the left side of the line. Everyone points at him. BVS(-2) fires, OL ejects him. He’s supposed to pick off the C but he just blows through everything and doesn’t slow that guy up, so Jeter’s suddenly getting a block from his right as he moves to the right. He can’t hold up on this, understandably, and now there’s a giant gap directly up the gut. There is no second level, likely because Barrett(-2) is in man on the TE and gets completely lost when he ducks inside. Hill(+1) and Green(+0.5) are able to track the RB down but if those guys aren’t fast this is a TD. RPS -1. Why is the converted fullback playing?
M30	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press zero	Pass	4	Fade	Green	30
Tempo, Michigan screws this up incredibly. There is no deep safety. Before Lombardi turns around after a playfake every Michigan player is within seven yards of the LOS. Lombardi misses his slot guy wide open for a TD but he’s just chucking this as soon as he turns around. Green… eh? He’s out of phase. There’s a lot of separation, but when a well thrown ball gets there his hand is on it. He is too far away to get any force on that. -1, cover -1, I guess? RPS –2.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 10 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	30 nickel slide	Half press one high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	BVS	2
Split flow here as an H-back heads backside, which might be a two for one since Barrett is clearly in man on him and runs himself out of the play as a result. HB blows it. BVS comes off the edge; HB hits engaged DL on backside of play. Paye(+0.5) and Jeter(+0.5) do a good job stringing the ball out at forcing a cutback. Big gap as Hutch(-1) got significantly hung up and is mostly reached until the HB hits him. BVS(+0.5) tracks and tackles. On the one hand, MSU missed assignment may be because of 3-3-5 late move. On the other, without the MA this is productive.  RPS+1.
O27	2	8	Pistol 2TE tight	3-3-5	3-3 slide	Half press two high	Pass	3	Corner	Green	Inc (Pen +15)
McGrone sent, picked up, Paye drops off in some sort of screen spy. Lombardi clean(pressure -1) and throws an accurate corner route at Green. Green(-2, cover -1) is in OK position but very grabby and once he yanks back WR’s shoulder this flag is always coming out.
O42	1	10	Pistol offset 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press one high	Pass	4	PA fly	Green	Inc
M has no one deeper than 7 yards here and Barrett flips a flat responsibility to Hawkins and then bites on PA so there is no safety at all. M fortunate this isn’t a post. Green(-1, cover -1) is in pretty good position until he turns his head back too early and that opens up a step of space. He is not in phase enough to do this. Ball a hair too long.
O42	2	10	Shotgun trips	4-2-5	Dime even	Press two high	Run	N/A	QB draw	Paye	6
Two deep safeties; McGrone exits the box on flare motion from the back. M -1 in box. Paye(-1) flies upfield and is gone. Welschof and Kemp are stunting, no way to cover that ground. S comes up after initial bracket on outside WR. QB slides. RPS -1.
O48	3	4	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	NIckel over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Lead stretch	Barrett	-4
MSU lets Hutch(+1) through as he darts inside at and a G deals with Kemp. TE tries to make up for it but gets swum through immediately. Barrett(+2) is running to get over the slot on the snap and just jets past the slot WR; He gets into the T, knocks him back a bit, and then disengages to TFL. A little fortunate that M was scrambling against tempo so he started this play running to the LOS. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O8	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	4	Stop and go	Gray	Inc (Pen +10)
Okay this penalty is tenuous. QB gets immediate pressure(+2) as McGrone(+1) gets through the LT after lining up on the LOS and coming and Hutch(+1) rips around the TE; QB is really just booting this OOB. Gray(-1, cover -1) reaches out and grabs the WR a bit. You could get away with this as the WR doesn’t really seem affected. But also Gray damn near falls over and this WR is going to have a bunch of separation.
O18	1	10	Shotgun 2TE tight	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Pass	4	Hitch	Kemp	Inc
This looks like the worst pass pro in the world as Kemp(+2, pressure +2) initially stems outside like he’s on a stunt and then redirects inside. LG stumbles back and doesn’t get a hand on Kemp after the redirect. Lombardi is looking for a Hitch that Green(+0.5, cover +1) is in solid coverage on and wings it dangerously wide.
O18	2	10	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Paye	5
Hutch(+1) drives the RT to close a gap while Kemp(-1) gets moved out by a double. Cutback. Paye slides inside to duck inside the TE but there’s no immediate edge. Ross moved out over the slot just before the snap and can’t come down quickly enough to prevent a solid gain. Anti-RPO tactic. Kind of feel like if Paye is going to slide down like this McGrone should be ripping over the top. He gets there but only after the cutback. Down and distance means I’m punting on a minus.
O23	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	NIckel even SAM	Press two high	Penalty	N/A	Disc Signals	N/A	5
M tries the MOVE gambit and gets flagged. RPS -1.
O28	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Split zone	Kemp	0
Kemp(+2) gets a single block and fires it back a long way, then disconnects to tackle in the backfield. McGrone(+2) ran through a stumbling C to meet Kemp there. Hinton(-2) goes straight upfield and gets reached so danger time without these plays.
O28	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	4	Slot fade	Hill	Inc
Paye(+1, pressure +1) able to get around enough to get a bump on the QB a fraction after the ball is gone. Hill on Reed on the dreaded slot fade. Nowhere near as Reed appears to run more of an out than a slot fade. Hill’s coverage (-1, cover -1) worrisome here as he cuts out with Reed and then stumbles as Reed turns it vertical.
O28	3	10	Shotgun trips bunch	3-3-5	Exotic	Press one high	Pass	4	Fade	Gray	Inc (Pen +15)
Comically bad from Gray(-2, cover -2), who has a shoulder pad hold for a while and then deploys a two-hand yank on the WR when that’s not enough. Hutch(+1, pressure +1) around at eight and any delay here is bad news for MSU. McGrone(+0.5) also chucked a RB into the QB, but quick fades are quick. I mean.
O43	1	10	Ace TTE	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Off one high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Hutchinson	2
M firing off hard at the attempted doubles. McGrone(+1) fires into a guy in the backfield and gets a lot of depth to wipe out frontside gaps. Kemp(-1) is put definitively on one side of a block and is in the same gap McGrone is, but Hutch(+2) has a TE who he whips and tackles solo.
O45	2	8	Pistol 3-wide	3-3-5	5-1 split	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	0
McGrone(+1) again blasts into an OL to drive him back and remove a double on Jeter. Hutch(+0.5) controls his guy and flows; Jeter(+1) able to get a little depth and then find the ball, coming off his block to tackle at the LOS.
O45	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Penalty	N/A	Offsides	Hutchinson	5
Hutchinson(-1) jumps well across the line on a hand clap; both DTs also jump but might stay out of the neutral zone.
50	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Hutchinson	3 (Pen -12)
This is a stop if not for Hutchinson(-2) seeming to bust; he goes upfield hard for two steps and then suddenly changes direction to dive inside; Barrett has blitzed off the edge and is in the same space until the change of direction. Rest of DL is slanting hard and gets shoved along as MSU tries to hit the big gap in the line; there is a cutback there. Kemp(-1) got blown down the line and McGrone(+1) has to deal with an OL coming at him; he stands the guy up and hits RB but needs help and doesn’t get it in time. Hinton(+1) was able to drive a guy and get off to make contact short of the sticks; not enough. M gets bailed out by a questionable blindside block call(refs +3)
O38	3	15	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Paye	1
Paye(+1) and Welschof(+1) both extend to shed OL and meet at the RB on a give up and punt. FWIW M did bracket over Gray here so the punt and pray was probably not an option.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O32	1	10	Ace trips bunch tight	4-2-5	4-4 over SAM	Press one high	Pass	4	Fly	Gray	53
Paye(+1, pressure +1) is coming around to force a throw if one actually needed to be forced. Gray(-3, cover -3) is beaten by three yards and has no play on the ball despite a throw that forces the WR to slow down. He turns his head and slows down for reasons that are unfathomable.
M15	1	10	Ace tight	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Off two high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Hill	8
Hill(-1) is at eight yards but is backing out at the snap and reacts late to this. Green(+1) actually does a good job to turn this in at the hash but Hill’s approach angle is wide, not trusting his force, and he almost overruns the play, leaking a few more yards. RPS -1.
M7	2	2	Ace trips tight bunch	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	McGrone	3
Ross sent on a blitz to erase the interior gaps. He shoots through as Kemp(+0.5) is able to stick at the LOS against a double for a moment. McGrone(-1) has the angle to get there and needs to be the guy in this gap but doesn’t react quickly enough and can’t shut it down. Hutch(+0.5) almost came around his kickout.
M4	1	G	Pistol offset 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Kemp	2
DT twist from M is mostly picked up. Kemp(+0.5) pushes his guy a gap across the formation and is a yard in the backfield so frontside is gone. Hutch(+0.5) able to fend off a TE and get down to tackle; no second level help until Jeter(+0.5) is able to shed and get back to the gap after reading the play. Why does M have a S sitting in the endzone away from the strength of the formation from the four?
M2	2	G	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	Goal line	Press zero	Pass	5	PA waggle drag	Hill	Inc
M covers(+2) all of this and Paye(+1, pressure +1) is able to fly up on the edge to force a throw at Hill(+0.5), who’s in the back pocket of his guy. Throw nowhere near.
M2	3	G	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	5	Dumpoff	Ross	2
Ross(-2, cover -2) in man on Heyward and straight up loses on an RB out where he has no contest. Michigan spends a guy on playing S from the two. Paye(+0.5, pressure +1) again coming around for all it matters.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O15	1	10	Shotgun trips tight bunch	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	6
I mean Jeter(-1) does get ejected here but M has him head up on the C and Paye in a wide 9 with the LBs shifted away from this; they blitz, Jeter gets a play long double, and M can’t make it up. Hutch(+1) runs over the RG; Paye(+0.5) fights back to tackle; Ross(-1) is sticking back against RPOs maybe but this doesn’t work if someone doesn’t pop up here. RPS -1.
O21	2	4	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	3-3 slide	Press two high	Pass	N/A	Flash screen	N/A	Inc
Tempo, quick screen dropped. This had a high chance of success if caught with just Green in the area and a TE blocker, RPS -1.
O21	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Pass	4	Drag	Hutchinson	Inc
Lucky here as mesh catches man coverage and Green(-1, cover -1) bites outside and loses; he’ll have a diving tackle attempt to keep this at the sticks otherwise this is a big gain. Hutch(+2, pressure +2) stunts inside, knocks the RG off balance, and rips up the middle to force an awkward throw that’s high. RPS -1, man vs mesh on third and four.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	4	Screen	Ross	20 (Pen -10)
Ross(-2) gets put on his ass by a WR; WR gets a possibly valid but absolutely ridiculous blindside block call(refs +3). Gray(-2) is so intent on maybe covering someone that he doesn’t crack replace at all. Nobody blocks him; he is unable to affect the play at all. McGrone(+0.5) is doomed but does a good job to come through guys. RB steps OOB by himself after a major gain, M gets lucky it’s reversed. RPS -1. McGrone leaves for the duration.
O15	1	20	Shotgun trips	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Barrett	3
MSU runs against an exotic blitz where Barrett(+1) fires hard at the right moment and slips by the LT; Kemp(+1) fired his guy back and awkward cutback for back ends with Hutch(+0.5) coming off a block and tackling.
O18	2	17	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Off two high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Ross	2
Dangerous for a second as Paye(-1) gets way upfield. Shibley(+1) fires hard and takes on a G trying to release off a double and an unfettered guy. He loses but took two guys for the play as a LB. Ross(+1) sheds a WR and comes up on the edge; misses the tackle but sets it up for Hill and Hutch to finish.
O20	3	15	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	5-1 fold	Half press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Paye	1
Give up and punt. Paye(+0.5) and Hutch(+0.5) save M some field position.
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14, 2 min 2nd Q. Next drive starts with 40 seconds.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Paye	Inc
Paye(+2, pressure +2) around at eight and affects a quick throw; hard to do. Ball sails OOB.
O20	2	10	Shotgun trips	4-2-5	Exotic	Press one high	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Shibley	-4
Give up and halftime.
Drive Notes: EOH,10-14.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Off two high	Pass	4	Stop and go	Gray	50
Gray(-3, cover -3) bites on a double move and is again beaten by three yards. Max pro against a four man rush so no pressure (-2); wonder what Hawkins is doing here?
M12	1	10	??	??	??	??	Pass	??	Fade	Green	Inc
Cut to this play in progress. Some sort of PA into a throw at Green(+0.5, cover +1), who is over the top of an attempted fade that’s way off.
M12	2	10	Pistol twins	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Ross	2
Hutch(+0.5) is getting doubles now; he takes one and sticks at the LOS. Shibley(+0.5) is checking frontside gaps and when there aren’t any he comes to the back; Ross(+1) took on an OL and shed to tackle w/ him.
M10	3	8	Shotgun trips TE	4-2-5	Nickel under SAM	Press two high	Pass	4	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Coverage(+3) excellent, with mesh defeated by a switch underneath, the slot guy bracketed, and Green over the top of a fade. Welschof(+0.5) and Hutch(+0.5) come through in a reasonable amount of time. QB boots it OOB in the vague direction of a WR. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: FG(29), 10-17, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O21	1	10	Ace tight	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press three high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Green	3
Barrett(+0.5) deep at eight yards as part of a three S look; he’s able to come down quickly. Green(+0.5) sets the edge and forces it back inside after Nailor tries the edge. Shibley(+0.5) over unblocked to help tackle.
O24	2	7	Pistol 2TE tight	3-3-5	3-3 SAM	Off two high	Pass	4	Waggle cross	Ross	15
Ross(-2, cover -2) is directly under this route until he inexplicably stops. Paye(+0.5) was chasing this down and this is a throwaway otherwise.
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	5-2 fold	Off two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Kemp	0
Kemp(+1) gets a single block and drives through it. Shibley(+1) on the LOS; he gets the H-back coming through and is able to shed and tackle at the LOS; Barrett coming down to clean up if necessary, but it’s not.
O39	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	5-2 fold	Press one high	Pass	5	Slot fade	Hill	Inc
Hill(+0.5, cover +1) in Reed’s back pocket on this; ball way long. Pressure(-1) doesn’t get through on a five man rush, but this is a quick throw.
O39	3	10	Shotgun trips bunch	4-2-5	Nickel over	Press two high	Pass	4	Deep in	Green	19
M CB issues bleeding into other aspects of defense. Paige is in and really concentrated on helping Gray over the top; that’s a hitch. Instead MSU breaks the outside WR from the bunch in. Green(-1, cover -1) gets beat clean from outside leverage; Paige(-1, tackling -1) is late getting over and misses a tackle. Pressure(-1) not getting through as M twists both sides of the line; Hutch may have a weak case for a hold.
M42	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press one high	Pass	4	Slot fade	Hill	Inc
Upshaw in as Paye is dinged. Hutch(+1, pressure +1) dips around the corner and has a better case for a hold here but it’s immaterial since the ball is coming out on read 1. That’s a slot fade at Hill(+1, cover +1), who provides no window. Ball is over him and caught but well OOB. Hill bumps the WR OOB in the air, actually.
M42	2	10	Shotgun trips	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press two high	Run	N/A	QB draw	Hutchinson	4
Hutch(+1) bails M out here as the flare motion takes both Ross and Shibley(-2) out of the box, leaving this 4 v 5. MSU running at a huge gap in the line with no LB support. Hutch is stunting inside and is able to track this down, impressively. RPS +1, if there is another LB here this is likely a nothing gain due to the stunt.
M38	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	5-1 fold	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Welschof	4
M a little light in the box but this is a weird playcall. Welschof(-1) does not stunt around Kemp even after taking a step; Kemp goes straight upfield and gets crunched by a double but that’s what happens on these calls. Hawkins(+1, tackling +1) reacts quickly from depth and gets a stick on the RB after three yards; pile lurches another. RPS +1, unblocked S hitting at three yards.
Drive Notes: FG(51), 20-17, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O2	1	10	Ace trips tight bunch	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Kemp	1
Kemp(+2) fires through the C, dumping him two yards in the backfield and forcing an awkward cutback; RB takes contact from his own OL. BVS(+0.5) is on the LB level here, unblocked, and is able to find the ball to tackle at the LOS. Green and others help rally.
O3	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	30 nickel slide	Half press two high	Pass	5	Stop and go	Gray	40
Pocket okay but Shibley(+1, pressure +1) is able to blitz from depth and runs through an OL to get into QB’s face. Too late because first read is always the right read. Gray(-1, cover -1) doesn’t bite on a bad double move and still does not get in phase here despite a material hold. This ball requires a lay-out from the WR and there’s no play on the ball but Gray still got outrun despite a cushion and not biting on a double move.
O43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5	???	Off three high	Pass	4	Flash screen	Gray	5
Tempo, come to this late. TE on the edge so tough for Gray(-1) but he gets pancaked into the sideline. Barrett(+0.5) reacts reasonably quickly but without a little more support from the CB this is going to succeed.
O48	2	5	Pistol 2TE tight	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	5	Corner	Perry	Inc (Pen +10)
Perry in for Gray. MSU goes right after him. Perry(-1, cover -1) grabs the guy the whole play and yanks him back so that the two players legs are tangled up. Pocket comfortable (pressure -1) as Hutch gets heavily chipped by a TE; first read is always right.
M42	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press two high	Pass	6	Throwaway	Paye	Inc
Attempted fly route at Perry(+0.5, cover +1), who looks to be step for step. Lombardi has a slot wide open in the middle of the field as Shibley(-2, cover -2) blitzes right next to Barrett; Paye(+1, pressure +1) rips through the guard and flushes QB, who boots OOB.
M42	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel pinch	Press two high	Run	N/A	Zone read keep	Paye	0
Pull as Paye(+1) appears to be firing down on the RB; Paye’s able to grab and slow the QB anyway. Welschof(+0.5) able to come off a block and shut this down; Paige also firing down to clean up if necessary.
M42	3	10	Shotgun trips bunch	3-3-5	Exotic	Press one high	Penalty	N/A	Offsides	Ojabo	5
Ojabo -1 but three guys jump for the second time in this game.
M37	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Exotic	Press one high	Pass	4	Slant	Perry	6
Perry(-1, cover -1) beat clean and no play on the ball. With the penalty that’s a conversion.
M31	1	10	Ace	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press one high	Pass	4	Flea flicker	Green	Inc
Hawkins stays deep so the guy on a post is bracketed; QB throws the corner. Green(+1, cover +1) is step for step; WR goes down, Green starts stumbling, ball hits him but he can’t bring it in. Grading pressure on a flea flicker is silly but Kemp(+1) powered through an OL to get some; Shibley also coming.
M31	2	10	Shotgun trips	3-3-5	3-3 stack	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	2
Jeter(+1) and Paye(+1) both win blocks, with Paye dipping inside to take on the G and prevent a double. Must bounce, bounce. Ross(-0.5, tackling -1) has an opportunity to get a big back in space and gets stiffarmed; he’s able to trip RB up but guy stumbles for an extra 2-3 yards.
M29	3	8	Shotgun trips	3-3-5	Okie	Press two high	Run	N/A	QB draw	Ross	6
DT twist and DEs upfield so big gaps for Ross(+0.5), the only LB, to cover. He has to respect both sides of the interior line and is able to track the QB into Barrett short of the sticks.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(40), 20-17, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
O8	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5	Nickel over	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Jeter	5
Jeter(-1) gets blown out by a double that can last the whole play because line is shifted to run strength and nobody is helping fill this gap. Ross(-1) sits and doesn’t react until late. Paye(+0.5) is able to narrow the gap down and help tackle. RPS -1.
O13	2	5	Ace tight	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Hawkins	2
Hawkins(+1, tackling +1) at eight yards and coming on the snap; Ross(+0.5) able to save a YAC by getting off a block and finishing the tackle Hawkins started. RPS +1.
O15	3	3	Ace trips tight bunch	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press two high	Pass	5	Corner	Green	18
Green has outside position and a bracket from Hawkins; Reed is able to break back outside him and force him to flip around. Green does this well and gets in a yank that he gets away with to force a tough diving completion that is maybe made and maybe not. No review on critical play. Way to go, replay. (Refs -2) Push coverage for Green. Hutch(+1) and Paye(+0.5) drove to the QB and forced this throw, pressure +2.
O33	1	10	Pistol trips tight bunch	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press two high	Pass	4	PA fly	Green	Inc
Green(+1, cover +1) has this nearly on the sideline and is more or less in phase until he gets his head around, Nailor starts falling over at the same time he gets a hair of separation. This ball would have to be perfect; it is not.
O33	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Kemp	3
Hutch(+0.5) fires the tight end inside; Kemp(+1) swims through the RG’s block to pop up in the backfield and force a bounce. Hawkins is out there to clean up; he leaks a yard or two after contact.
O36	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	4	Hitch	Perry	15
Tempo, M still lining up on snap. Perry (-1, cover -1) in no position to contest on a hitch at the sticks, and then he misses a tackle (-0.5, tackling -1) to tack on five yards. Hill cleans up. Ball out too fast for pressure to do anything, but pocket was clean(pressure -1).
M49	1	10	Pistol 4-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Half press one high	Pass	4	Waggle cross	Hill	8
Man shown as SAM follows TE across formation; he then zips across to cover the flat on the waggle. M does have a switch on for the deeper route as Hill(-1, cover -1) activates and comes up but his angle is way wide and not focused on the other TE, so he’s open.
M41	2	2	Shotgun 4-wide	4-2-5	4-3 under	Off two high	Pass	N/A	Flash screen	N/A	7
Tempo, M misaligns with one guy over two to the field. Easy yards, RPS -2.
M34	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Pass	4	Fly	Perry	31
Mmm. Tempo, go at a corner. This ball is badly underthrown and should see Perry intercepting it unless the WR can play D. Perry… falls over. And knocks it into the WR’s hands. -3, cover -3.
M3	1	G	Pistol 3-wide	4-2-5	4-3 over	Press zero	Run	N/A	Zone stretch	Ross	0 (Pen -15)
Ross(+1) shoots a gap and is able to force the RB all the way to the sideline. Without this it’s a TD as the DTs twist and end up in a heap, but I guess the blitz makes up for that possibility. Solomon(+1) able to come up on the edge and get off a block to tackle at the LOS. MSU gets a ludicrous clipping penalty(refs +3)
M18	1	G	Ace TTE	4-2-5	Nickel over SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Hutchinson	5
Coming under the jet fake. Hutch(+1) drives a TE and forces a cutback. Solomon(-1) gets washed down the line to open up a cutback, but that has limited upside because a bunch of guys are now rallying after the jet fake ended.
M13	2	G	Shotgun 3-wide	4-2-5	Nickel even	Press two high	Pass	5	Screen	N/A	13
M sends the MLB and no spy at all from the DL, all those guys are gone. Hutch is able to recover and could tackle from behind if there’s a slowdown; there is not. Perry(-1) in tough against an OL but instead of diving or doing anything else that might disrupt the timing he gets blasted into the sideline. RPS -2.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-27, 5 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Pack	Front	Cover look	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yards
M44	1	10	Ace tight	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	Kemp	1
Kemp(+1) able to extend off a single block and initiate a tackle at the LOS. Ross(+0.5) gets over fast to help hold it down.
M43	2	9	Ace TTE	4-2-5	4-3 even SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	Inside zone	N/A	3
Another jet fake with a cutback for the back. M clogs up the line and gets this down relatively fast but it’s still three yards. A push.
M40	3	6	Ace tight	4-2-5	4-3 even	Press one high	Run	N/A	Jet sweep	Hill	4
M in trouble here as Perry points Hawkins(-1) over on the jet but he doesn’t go, and he’s aligned way far away from it to start with. There’s no safety as a result; Hill(+1) is able to flank quickly and force it in at the other hash and Paye(+1) barely runs this down. RPS -2.
M36	4	2	Ace	4-2-5	4-3 over SAM	Press two high	Run	N/A	QB sneak	Hinton	3
Hinton is a yard off the LOS, indicating a DT twist, MSU runs a sneak right at the vacated spot and gets it. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: EOG, 27-24.

Yeah naw.

don't pout

It's not that, it just that I don't feel the need for a deep dive on what went wrong. I know what went wrong. Our cornerbacks are adapted for sea life and have limited mobility on land.

I spent hours doing this and you just… tweeted it out

Well?

I mean, yeah, usually this effort is clarifying for myself and hopefully other people as to why a particular thing happened. There's no clarification necessary here. You all saw it live. Michigan has one potentially decent corner, Gemon Green. The guys on the other side probably turned in the worst CB performance in the history of this blog between them. Yes, I am including those Rich Rod defenses in there. James Rogers is off the hook. Early JT Floyd, have a day. Boubacar Cissoko, go 1972 Dolphins up in here.

I clipped this stuff mostly for posterity, but here it is in case you like bleaching your eyeballs. MSU started out throwing at Green, who was targeted on four of MSU's first five attempts. This didn't go great for Michigan but there was resistance provided. Once they started going at Gray the walls caved in. His first involvement was a ticky-tack holding call; more importantly for Michigan Gray loses his balance:

This would be a theme. Also a theme: exceeding our limitations. Way back in the day a pile of makeshift Michigan corners took on certified hell-beast Michael Floyd. They survived, with one 26 yard catch and three penalties, one extremely dubious, on nine downfield targets. Sounds amazing! The process (apologies for the picture that didn't make it through nine years of internet):

JT Floyd and Courtney Avery had no illusions about where they stood in the cornerback pantheon in that game, and they defended Floyd—who finished the 2011 season with 100 catches for 1147 yards—on these plays. (Not so much on others, but on these.) If you're not real good your best policy on deep balls is to forget about getting your head around and focus on punching the ball out when the ball gets there.

Michigan has not impressed upon its corners that this is a triage situation.

This happened over and over. Green, the lone functional CB, did it. Gray did it repeatedly. Perry did it when he came in. It's hard to believe that Michigan went through a three-month camp with some super fast guys on the outside and didn't realize that their CB group needs to be humble first and foremost. But here we are.

What about off coverage? Zone?

You can try. Don Brown is a press man one high defensive coordinator who is gradually being beaten into doing other things often enough to not get his face crushed by high level passing games. Michigan's initial forays into off coverage in this game were no better than the press man stuff. Vastly wide open 50 yard pass #2 was a bite on a double move:

CB #4 to top

It's worth wondering what Hawkins is doing there since he ends up in no-man's land against no WR and is not needed against the run game because there are four DL on the field. But also this is off man with Gray getting torched by three yards.

The last time Gray got beat deep was both better and worse. Here he doesn't bite on a double move, gets a material hold—but a subtle, uncalled one—and still gets beat enough to give up a catch:

That's a –1 instead of a –3, but guys like Lewis, Long, and Lavert Hill run that route for the WR instead of getting meh coverage that gets beat by a good throw and a lay-out.

Michigan did got to many more two-high looks deeper into the game, which required the occasional adjustment for MSU but even there the hole at corner opened things up. Green has outside leverage against a guy in a bunch on this third and long conversion. If the WR breaks inside he's going to need help unless he's a superhero, which he is not. Help is late, because Paige is understandably focused on the possibility of a fly route:

S #7 to top

A later waggle looks like it should work. You've got the flat covered, you've got a safety running up, it's solid. But Dax Hill is nowhere near the intermediate route:

S #30

Asking Don Brown to run a primarily zone defense feels like asking RichRod to go under center. Yeah, I suppose he can do it. No, he's not going to be much good at it. With hypothetical zone expert Bob Shoop limited to zoom calls this looks like a route that absolutely should be pursued but has limited upside.

Is there any hope for Gray?

I don't want to write anyone off but I'm pretty skeptical here. My season preview take was based on a couple hundred snaps last year and mostly highlighted plays much like those above:

The grading around these parts was nowhere near as optimistic [as PFF's completions allowed stat] … He picked up a –6, with eight negatives [against Illinois] … against Notre Dame there were clear differences between Ambry Thomas and Gray's coverage on similar routes … I know this has been rather grim so far. The good news is that there's every reason to expect Gray will improve a lot.

That good news, such as it was, is no longer available.

I was struck by the screen MSU had called back. He's in man on a guy running mesh who knocks Josh Ross clean over and he keeps running for multiple steps before realizing the WR he's nominally covering is nowhere in the building:

CB #4 to top

To me that's a guy going ohshitohshitohshitohshit because he's just trying to stay in contact with someone. It's going to take a lot of work to get him past that, because he's not wrong to be thinking "oh shit" constantly. He might top out as a JT Floyd where a couple years down the road he's calm and decent because he knows what he can and cannot do. I'd be very surprised if this year is salvageable.

Okay: reinforcements? Perry?

Alas, Perry was no better. His first snap was a play-long hold with an arm briefly wrapped around the waist. This is always getting called:

He did look more promising on the next play, which is another fly route but one Lombardi decides not to throw:

CB #16 to top

Aaand then he deleted 10-20% of Michigan's win percentage by falling over of his own volition on a badly underthrown deep ball he should be intercepting and instead tips into the WR's hands:

CB #16 to bottom

That is a *chef's kiss* way to give up the winning points, more or less.

This was a three-month camp with two panic moves to corner. If there is any hope someone surges it's probably Darion Green-Warren or Andre Seldon having it click as a true freshman; maybe Faustin is able to come through. I doubt it.

It's likely that Gray and Perry are better than they showed in this game. It is unlikely they're not going to be a sore spot all season.

I notice you're not dumping on Green.

This may be a good spot for a table:

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Paye	14.5	2	12.5	Pressure can't get there on instant throws
Hutchinson	19	4	15	See above
Kemp	12.5	3	9.5	Got a lot of single blocking and consistently won.
Jeter	3.5	3	0.5	Second game hovering around zero.
Hinton	1.5	2	-0.5	See above.
Welschof	2	1	1
Upshaw				DNC
Ojabo		1	-1
Speight				DNP
Smith				DNP
TOTAL	53	16	+37	Just didn't matter.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Barrett	4	2	2	Quieter.
McGrone	8.5	2	6.5	Ran through a lot of OL. Rush minimized like DEs.
Ross	5	9.5	-4.5	Spent a lot of time not running to ball, inexplicable coverage stop
Solomon	1	1	0	Late injury replacement for Barrett.
BVS	1	2	-1	Main culprit on 28  yard run.
Shibley	4	4	0	Looked plausible.
Mohan				DNP
TOTAL	23.5	20.5	+3	Possible Ross minuses should migrate to RPS?
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	5	3	2	Slot fades covered.
Hawkins	3.5	1	2.5	Couple of sticks.
Gray	0.5	13	-12.5	Yikes.
Green	7	5	2	Had his issues, won his share.
Paige		1	-1	One missed tackle.
Perry	0.5	7.5	-7	No relief.
Turner				DNP
TOTAL	16.5	30.5	-14	skull emojis
Metrics
Pressure	21	7	+14	Still very good, not quite Minnesota level dominance, didn't matter.
Coverage	14	28	-14	aaaaaaaaaaaargh
Tackling	3	4	-1	meh
RPS	7	19	-12	RPO checks mostly outside scope of UFR.

Green isn't gangbusters but he performed much better overall. He was the lone Michigan DB to touch the football, getting a drive-ending PBU on MSU's first drive…

CB #22 to top

…and narrowly missing an interception after winning a route later:

CB #22 to top

In addition the one deep ball he got hit on wasn't horrible.

He stumbles transitioning out of his backpedal and there's a gap there but he's able to make most of it up and has a vague contest on a ball that barely slowed the WR up. I gave him a –1 because he was out of phase enough he didn't have a chance to look for the ball but when he was out of phase he knew it and went into triage mode unlike the other two CBs.

He got tested deep again and gave up some separation late when he looked back:

He's not great. He is okay. I have some hope he'll develop into an All Big Ten level corner over the next couple years.

Whoah whoah whoah: +37 for the DL? +14 on pressure? What?

One thing that did seem much different on a rewatch was Michigan's ability to get pressure. Paye, Hutchison, and others were constantly a step or two away from lighting up Lombardi. The initial hitch PBU had to come out because Hutchinson drew two guys and McGrone had a free run. Hutchinson was getting around at eight yards on a significant number of plays:

DE #97 to top

But when your first read is always right you can't get to the quarterback. Lombardi threw his first read on about 90% of snaps. He missed some blindingly wide open guys because MSU's equation was simple, and correct. Long bomb on Gray; Paye is around at seven(!) yards and will wipe Lombardi if there's any hesitation:

DE #19 to top

Paye around at eight to force an incompletion:

DE #19 to top

This was not as constant as it was against Minnesota but in a world where Lombardi has to come off his primary receiver more than… once(?) he's getting flushed or sacked most of the time.

On the rare occasions that Michigan was able to cover a read or two Lombardi's reaction was LOL NFW:

M coverage, also #96 DT coming around to pressure

I don't think Lombardi's very good at going through progressions but I also think that the combination of the MSU OL and the Michigan CBs gave MSU outs. They were not going to be able to do a lot more than they did; they didn't have to.

Combine that with run defense that allowed almost nothing unless its own coaches were deliberately sabotaging it and you get those kind of DL numbers.

Deliberate sabotage is kind of a big claim.

How else is one supposed to describe Michigan's insistence on running a 3-3-5 on standard downs?

There were 13 runs against Michigan's 3-3-5. Three were on clear passing downs (3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, 1st and 20). The other ten went for a total of 57 yards, 5.7 yards an attempt. The three passing down runs netted 3.3 YPA. The other 25 MSU rushes averaged 2.4 YPA.

You could say that the 28 yarder from Simmons distorts that but since the key item on that play was the converted fullback getting ejected from his lane…

LB #40 blitzing to left of C

…that's not a distortion, that's a consequence.

Things could have been worse on a couple runs that MSU screwed up mostly because they can't block. Here VanSumeren is able to track down a play from behind largely because the MSU TE makes an insane decision to go hit a mostly-reached Hutchinson:

MSU wing TE to bottom

He actually knocks Hutchinson back to the right side of that block! If BVS is cut off and Hutchinson doesn't get rescued this cutback could be another big chunk:

Meanwhile other 3-3-5 runs make very little sense just in terms of bodies. Presnap setup for a first and ten run:

That is a big gap between Paye, in a wide 9 technique to the bottom of the line, and Jeter, who's almost head up on the center. You'd think Michigan would be firing someone down to make up for it but Ross just sits as M blitzes two guys to the backside of the play:

LB #12, NT #95

I gave Jeter a minus but even if he plays that better he's likely to lose to a play-long double. This happened again later:

LB #12, NT #95

So that doesn't seem like a one-off issue with Ross not shooting down to help, it's just a giant gap on one side of the line that Michigan's supposed to rescue by having a midddling-at-best NT win against a pure double-team.

Don Brown's insistence on running the 3-3-5 with less disastrous DTs and Not Josh Uche is baffling. This, and a persistent inability to even get lined up against tempo, are the main sources of a giant RPS loss.

FIRE DON BROWN

Look, I'm in my palace of apathy. I believe that all of this is deck chairs on the Titanic. But if Michigan gives up 60+ to Ohio State again because Don Brown didn't recruit a single man coverage corner over the last four years I don't know how you don't fire the guy.

Okay but the penalties! We were robbed!

On review my twitter opinion mostly stands. You cannot expect to get away with the kinds of things Michigan CBs were doing. The first one on Green sees him reach out and grab the shoulder pad of the WR just before the ball whizzes past his outstretched arms:

He has already done a ton of yanking on that play but he just might get away with it if he stops at plausible deniability. That shoulder tug is in full view of the ref and obviously material.

The Gray arm yank is just… I mean

I will concede that one or two of the holding calls were tenuous. One might be classified as outright bad.

On the other hand, Michigan got three giant breaks when MSU got hit with dubious 15 yard penalties. Two were for blindside blocks that may be the current letter of the law but are very much against the spirit of football, as mentioned in the game column. A third was a clip called on the interior of the line. Clipping is diving low at someone from behind; that block was clearly from the side and is a garden-variety cut block on an unengaged player.

You can maybe make the case that the lack of review on the third-down corner route at Green may have swung the outcome. Michigan still had 60 yards of field to defend and gave up half of that when the third corner fell down on a ball he should have intercepted and helped deflect the ball to the MSU WR. Refereeing outrages are well down the list of reasons Michigan lost this game.

While I'm discussing penalties, here's another coaching issue that really irritated: offsides. Michigan had three different guys jump on two different occasions.

This would have set up a conversion if not for one of those blindside block calls; the second one turned third and ten into third and five and a six-yard slant converted. Meanwhile when MSU got an idea that Michigan was trying to draw them offside they called timeout and induced a false start from M by faking a jump: their LB shot towards the line but stopped short of the neutral zone, and an M OL came out of his stance to draw the nonexistent penalty.

This was the inverse of the first Harbaugh MSU game. In that game Michigan picked up all the blitzes and leveled a previously giant coaching gap; they were thwarted only by a legendarily ridiculous play. Here Mel Tucker, 5-7 Colorado coach, waltzed into Michigan Stadium and pantsed Jim Harbaugh. What do you do with that? You shift focus to sports in which there is the possibility of something nice happening.

Is there any… good news?

Some. For some reason MSU turned its attention to Dax Hill on a couple of attempted slot fades and Hill was up to the task. This one is not in the ballpark but Hill is in the guy's back pocket:

slot CB #30 on bottom hash

A second slot fade was actually caught but Hill forced the guy to the sideline to get his route in and bumps the guy OOB in the air:

slot CB #30 to bottom

Michigan's CBs couldn't put fly routes in the sideline when their guys started 50-80% closer to it.

If Hill was on Michigan's defense two or three years ago they would have been awesome. Instead he's on this one, largely being wasted because opponents can just throw at the other guys.

Also, Carlo Kemp came in with a big number. He was very good in this game when not exposed to double teams. MSU OGs could not handle him:

DT #2 to bottom

And the C got some business as well:

DT #2 over C

Now: Kemp had already established last year that he would turn in +7, +8 days against these kind of OLs. A +12 is a step forward if MSU's interior OL isn't' a disaster; it's probably a disaster.

I thought you said Aidan Hutchinson is an All-American.

He still played like it in this game. Hutchinson's standard of play in this game was just as high as it was in the opener. He was devastating against the run:

DE #97 to bottom

And from time to time he was able to affect the passing game despite the first read always being right. Michigan ran man coverage against mesh on third and four [ed: …] and MSU was going to convert until Hutchinson blasted through guys and spooked Lombardi into a high throw:

DE #97 to top of line

Like Hill, it was all for naught.

How did Adam Shibley look?

Shibley looked solid. He didn't stick out as a problem on any particular snap and was aggressive. Here he takes on two guys and is able to stick long enough to push Heyward wide:

MLB #45

He goes the wrong way there but he's a linebacker against two OL, even momentary wins against pure doubles are good. I dinged him for a coverage bust when he seemed to vacate a zone that needed to have someone in it; other than that he knew what he was doing and didn't seem out of place physically.

Heroes?

The defensive line with the exception of the NT. Dax Hill.

Maybe not so heroic?

I mean… corners not named Gemon Green. Josh Ross also had a rough day.

What does it mean for Indiana and the future?

This is both a huge negative outlier and game over. I don't expect that Gray and/or Perry will turn in days like this in the future if only because they're both on D1 football rosters. They will stay on their feet most of the time or they will be replaced… by folks who probably aren't real good either. Michigan's defense will be able to adjust and cope. So it's not the end of the world.

On the other hand: it's the end of the world. This program is based on having excellent man to man corners and this is what they're running out in year six.

Defensive ends: still awesome. Sorry it didn't matter guys.

Dax Hill slot fade theory: confirmed. Sorry it doesn't matter guys.

3-3-5: stop it! Stop. It. 6 YPC last week. 5.7 YPC this week. Years in which it gets gashed. Cut that out. (It will not be cut out.)

Carlo Kemp can beat up on one on one blocks by bad OL. I think we already knew this but the consistency with which he beat it in this game was an improvement.