Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs UConn
I THINK I MIGHT BE EXCITED THIS IS 9000 WORDS
NEW! So I've finally decided I'm going to try to hand out +/- for run blocking, which has been a sore spot when it comes to numbers since UFR started. With Michigan running 75% of the time against UConn, I can't just go by gut feel anymore. I've got enough of a handle on it to at least give it a try. I'm adopting the same sort of +/- format Genuinely Sarcastic uses, because that seems like a good idea, and hope he continues doing his version since different eyes will see different things.
Also, Denard Robinson demands some changes to the way UFR does passing. I'm adding a new SCR indicator for a scramble that is clearly a good idea given Robinson's speed and the down and distance situation. A four yard run on third and fifteen is still a TA.
Formation note: UConn didn't seem to do much, if any substitution. By the end of the game it was clear that they essentially had two defenses, a one-high formation…
…and a two high formation…
…and that the only thing that changed other than that was the alignment of the linebackers based on the position of the WRs—when Michigan went to trips a linebacker lined up over the #2 WR. There was a slight variant of the one-high defense deployed when Michigan went to two TE sets that saw one of the linebackers drop down to the line and the others slide over; I called that "Base 5-3," FWIW. As always, nomenclature is an attempt to be clear about what I'm talking about, not a guarantee of fidelity.
Michigan didn't do anything too exciting except debut this formation I called "Shotgun H-back":
Here Martell Webb is lined up as a quasi fullback; usually he would pull to the backside and block the crashing DE, who always crashed on a… wait for it… scrape exchange.
Substitution note: Nothing you don't already know. No substitution on the OL except for Molk's momentary cramp. Robinson and Grady were rotating in at slot frequently even before Roundtree went out, with Robinson seemingly ahead of Grady when it came to PT. Koger and Webb rotated, with Webb more of a blocker and Koger a receiver. Jeremy Jackson got in some spot duty; Je'Ron Stokes did not see the field.
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M4 | 1 | 10 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Off tackle | Shaw | 6 | ||||||||
Basically an iso designed to go just outside the TE; Koger and Dorrestein double and drive back the playside DE, with Koger popping off on the linebacker scraping over the top. McColgan has the short side corner; all these blocks are very well done. Unfortunately Omameh(-1) is overpowered by the DT and lets him into the backfield, forcing Shaw to bounce it outside. This robs Koger of the angle on the MLB and he has a free shot at Shaw for about one; Shaw(+1) spins through the tackle and gets six. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Koger, Dorrestein, Shaw | RUN- | Omameh(2) | ||||||||||||||||
M10 | 2 | 4 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Rollout hitch | Stonum | 7 | ||||||||
UConn walks down the strong safety, so the corner on Stonum gives him an eight yard cushion. The quick hitch is open and Robinson hits him in the numbers. Pass was late and from the stands this looked a little dodgy--there will be a couple additional plays like this--but you can't ask for more when it comes to accuracy and velocity. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||||||||||
M17 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel 4-3 | Run? | Scramble | Robinson | 9 - 13 Pen | ||||||||
Michigan fakes a belly handoff to Shaw, doubling both DTs and hypothetically leaving Shaw one on one with the unblocked MLB. Not a convincing fake. it's supposed to go to a short bubble, but Robinson pulls it down and takes off, zipping by the MLB and scurrying around a safety, finally getting hacked down near the first down marker. Was the bubble open? Eh, probably, but not for 9 yards. Should Forcier have thrown this? Yes. Robinson? Run, jackrabbit, run. (SCR, --, protection NA) Omameh gets a personal foul for a hit well after the whistle. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Odoms, Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M13 | 2 | 14 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel 4-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 22 | ||||||||
UConn's nickel 4-3 is a 4-3 with one of the LBs lined up over the #2 WR outside. There are also two safeties about ten yards downfield. Molk(+1) and Schilling(+1) execute a classic scoop block, springing Schilling out on the the MLB, who he blocks out of hte play. Shaw(+1) takes out the other LB. Roundtree(+1) cuts a safety. Dorrestein(+1) gets a free release and has no one to block so he just runs downfield walling off the short side corner. A charging safety forces Robinson outside, where the corner manages to make a desperate lunging tackle, preventing an 85-yard touchdown. BWS picture-paged this play. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling, Molk, Roundtree, Shaw, Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M35 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly keeper | Robinson | 10 | ||||||||
This is a variant on the zone read but I'm not entirely sure what it's supposed to be yet or who Robinson reads. I think it's the WLB, actually, as Koger kicks out the DE and all the linemen get blocked. Here Huyge(-1) and Schilling(-1) get split by an active DT and Shaw would be dead but Denard(ZR +1) pulls it out. He's now past the slanting DT and Schilling has released downfield along with Molk. Molk(+1) clocks Lloyd. Omameh(+1) controls the other DT and drives him two yards downfield, allowing Robinson to cut back behind when the LB avoid Schilling and Shaw. Dorrestein is again walling off a guy downfield; Robinson cuts behind; Stonum(+1) nails a corner, giving Robinson room to the sideline. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Molk, Stonum, Robinson(2) | RUN- | Schilling, Dorrestein | ||||||||||||||||
M45 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone stretch | Shaw | 5 | ||||||||
Michigan blocking the backside DE; they are going to be reading LBs all game. With the WLB crashing down on the stretch, this is a missed read by Denard(ZR-1). Still hypothetically has a shot at succeeding but Omameh's guy has gotten a bit of push and is set up in the B gap; he absorbs Smith's block. Shaw(+1) has nowhere to go and cuts behind blocks into the wide open gap Denard should have taken, managing to fall forward after barely avoiding the guy Schilling was blocking. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Shaw, Schilling | RUN- | Omameh, Robinson | ||||||||||||||||
50 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 4 | ||||||||
Double the playside DT and contain him, run right at the MLB, with Shaw getting a decent block; Robinson runs decisively, taking a hit from said MLB as he bounces off Shaw's block. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | NA | RUN- | NA | ||||||||||||||||
O46 | 3 | 1 | I-Form Big | 2 | 2 | 1 | Bear 5-3 | Run | Iso | Shaw | 2 | ||||||||
Do isos just go in a gap or can that change based on the D? Because UConn slants into this gap, leaving a big hole between Schilling and Omameh that has two linebackers, Molk, and could have McColgan if they went there. Instead it's just straight ahead at because Omameh(-1) and Dorrstein(-1) have lost out on blocks there are two tacklers and nowhere for Shaw to go; Shaw(+1) manages to fall forward for the first. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Shaw | RUN- | Omameh, Dorrestein | ||||||||||||||||
O44 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly handoff | Shaw | 4 | ||||||||
Not sure if this is the right read or not; DE is sliding down the line but maintaining some contain; definitely a handoff if Forcier, but Robinson? Benefit of the doubt since the DE did hesitate on Robinson. ZR+1. Omameh(-1) blocks down on the DT from an advantageous position and sees his block spun off of, forcing a cut outside where the backside DE is; the delay allows him to tackle. Crashing safety also there, but one-on-one that could have been a play. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson | RUN- | Omameh | ||||||||||||||||
O40 | 2 | 6 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | PA TE cross | Koger | 16 | ||||||||
Zone stretch fake with Schilling pulling around to provide pass protection on the unblocked backside DE. Linebackers suck up like whoah (RPS+2), leaving Koger wide open as the guy who should be covering the zone he's entering is actually trying to tackle Robinson. Dart hits him between the numbers 15 yards downfield, caught, first down. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||||||||||
O24 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Nickel 4-3 | Run | Zone stretch | Shaw | -1 | ||||||||
Frustrating, as UConn has six in the box and literally not enough guys to tackle if they run another draw. This is a stretch, and Robison makes the correct handoff decision (ZR+1) since the WLB is charging right at him. Omameh's(-1) DT does get a little penetration and closes off the frontside B gap, forcing Shaw to cut back; Molk(-1) and Schilling double team the NT and eventually pancake him but don't block anyone else. Blitzing WLB makes the play. (RPS-1) Run minus: Omameh, Schilling. | |||||||||||||||||||
O25 | 2 | 11 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 10 | ||||||||
This is just too easy, as UConn does the exact same thing. With two deep safeties and six in the box they literally have no one to tackle the QB. WLB runs into a frontside crease, leaving no one for Shaw to even block until he's ten yards downfield. Molk(+1) controlled and pancaked the playside DT; Robinson and Shaw banged a safety, leaving the slot LB to come from behind and tackle. RPS+2. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Molk | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O15 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Nickel 4-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 3 | ||||||||
SIX GUYS IN BOX ON THIRD AND ONE AT THE 15. Edsall derp. A slightly short yardage variation as Molk and Schilling double and crush the playside DT. Weakside LB reacts quickly and defeats Smith's block but has no chance to keep this under three yards, let alone one. RPS+1. Millen's praising Lloyd, and praising him correctly, and this had no chance. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | NA | RUN- | NA | ||||||||||||||||
O12 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 12 | ||||||||
Almost all Smith. Schilling(-1) gets driven back and thrown almost into the path of Smith; he ends up with his back to the DT looking at him. On the frontside, Molk and Omameh just manage to wall off the playside DT; Omameh pops off on the charging SLB. Smith manages to slip through this mess into a totally unblocked safety, who misses, at which point he can cut behind Roundtree(+1) and get into the endzone. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Smith(3), Roundtree | RUN- | Schilling | ||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 7 min 1st Q. 108 yard drive with two passes. Bo, man. Bo. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
M23 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly handoff | Shaw | 4 | ||||||||
This is on Denard because the unblocked DE was hauling ass after the RB and he needs to pull it out (ZR -1). If he does he has Webb as a lead blocker, Huyge on Lloyd, and the slot LB between him and the safeties--first down probably, touchdown maybe. As it is Shaw(+1) does well to hop around the DE and pick up a few yards. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Shaw | RUN- | Robinson | ||||||||||||||||
M27 | 2 | 6 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | Pass | Hitch | Stonum | 5 | ||||||||
Watching Rice-Texas instead of this play, come back just as Stonum's catching a zinger from Denard. (CA, 3, ?) | |||||||||||||||||||
M32 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 3 | ||||||||
Corner rolled down into the box as a WLB, allowing the LBs to slide over. This lets them send two guys into the hole the draw has gone into already, forcing Robinson behind the ineffective Molk/Schilling double and into the path of the backside DT, who has shucked Omameh; SLB comes up unblocked to fill but not before Robinson's quickness picks up the first. (RPS -1) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson | RUN- | Omameh | ||||||||||||||||
M35 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly lead keeper | Robinson | 12 | ||||||||
Same play as the first snap on this drive and Denard has learned (or just been told to pull the damn ball, getting a ZR+1). He yoinks the ball out as the DE against crashes down and finds himself in plenty of space with Webb as a lead blocker. Huyge(+2) gets a great pancake block on MLB Lloyd and Robinson jets past the first down; would like to see him try to set up the safety inside and hop outside in an effort to get a touchdown. Also Odoms does a great, if ultimately irrelevant, job on the outside. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Huyge(2), Odoms | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M47 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Flare screen | Shaw | 16 | ||||||||
Seven guys in the box now and UConn sends a safety-type player on a blitz. Four men are in a deep umbrella, leaving just two guys underneath, and they don't know where to go because Michigan is sending two OL each way. Michigan hits the flare. Odoms and Dorrestein get cuts downfield; Grady gets a decent block that springs Shaw through, leaving him one on one with a safety for six. Off balance, he can't put a move on and gets tackled. (CA,3, screen, RPS +1) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Odoms, Dorrestein | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O37 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Shaw | 5 | ||||||||
Essentially an identical play to the first one on the drive, where DE hauls ass after Shaw, Denard makes a bad read (ZR-1), Shaw(+1) evades the DE and hits the backside of the play. This time Denard actually gets out to block, Webb totally walls off the slot LB, Huyge gets another good block on Lloyd, and it's still six yards. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Shaw, Webb, Huyge | RUN- | Robinson | ||||||||||||||||
O32 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 32 | ||||||||
You cannot draw up a scoop block better than this. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) drive the playside DT back and then Omameh pops out on the MLB. A pulling Webb(+1) wipes Lloyd out, Shaw(+1) takes out the weakside safety type thing and Millen drops "that's six" as Robinson crosses the LOS. He really is a fantastic broadcaster. Replay. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Molk, Omameh(2), Smith, Robinson, Webb | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 1 min 1st Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
O44 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Off tackle | Shaw | 15 | ||||||||
Variant on the belly series from the last drive. On this one Webb pulls to clock the backside DE and Omameh(+1) blocks down on the playside DT; both linebackers have sucked to the backside because they're worried about Denard and not expecting this to go so far off tackle the other way since Shaw is lined up in the belly spot behind his QB. Ton of space; Shaw just runs by the SLB until he's forced inside by the corner. SLB tackles. RPS+1. Don't think this is a read, think this a called play, so no ZR. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Dorrestein | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O29 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | -3 | ||||||||
UConn adjusting to this by slanting the DE into the gap instead of letting the OT kick him out. This creates a mess. Denard slows up and tries to cut back, but Omameh(-1) has been driven back and he still tries to go around, eventually getting tackled for a loss. Should have just cut it outside. The evolution of dance here is for Tebow-style play-action fakes that consist of a single step forward. RPS-1. Run Minus: Omameh, Robinson | |||||||||||||||||||
O32 | 2 | 13 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel 4-3 | Run | Jailbreak screen | Grady | 3 | ||||||||
Fake the flare screen to Shawn and come back with the jailbreak on the other side of the field. This has sucked a lot of people out of position, leaving three blockers and three defenders before Grady is jetting for the endzone. Koger(+1) picks off the slot LB. Molk(+1) blocks MLB Lloyd. Schilling(-1) totally overruns the safety, who tackles unmolested. (CA, 3, protection NA) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Molk, Koger | RUN- | Schilling(2) | ||||||||||||||||
O29 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | TE cross | Koger | 4 | ||||||||
Not sure how restricted Robinson's read is here, but M is hoping for man and gets zone so Koger gets nailed as soon as he catches it. (CA, 2, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42), 14-0, 13 min 2nd Q. Shankapotamus punt sets M up with good field position on the next drive. | |||||||||||||||||||
O38 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4- | Run | Reverse | Grady | -3 | ||||||||
PEDANTRY NOTE: Since the action of the play goes one way with what looks like a QB sweep and then has a pitch to the WR, I'm calling this a reverse instead of an end around. The play: Michigan runs QB sweep action and pitches it to Grady as Koger takes out the backside DE. Problem: this 4-4 has a weakside alley defender like a Kovacs and no one is doing the thing where they run with Stonum on a fly route for 20 yards. This guy bites but is so far to the backside that he can easily recover in time to hit Grady. Grady, for his part, just runs right into the guy when he could have cut it inside and gotten some yards, possibly lots, and then he fumbles. Not a great play for Grady. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Koger | RUN- | Grady(3) | ||||||||||||||||
O41 | 2 | 13 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4- | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 6 | ||||||||
Best block of the day for Omameh, who gets under the DT and pushes him back a couple yards. LB is flowing downhill at this very fast so Robinson decides to cut back rather than chance a pileup with that guy and Webb at the LOS. Omameh's guy pops off to try to tackle but falls over backwards thanks to Omameh and Denard runs through it; MLB ate Molk(+1) and Denard can fall forward, stiffarming as he falls. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Molk | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O35 | 3 | 7 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Nickel | Pass | Slant | Odoms | 16 | ||||||||
Smith runs the flare screen route, Roundtree heads straight downfield, and Odoms slants inside. Denard throws what looks like a dangerous pass, but the safety coming down isn't even looking at Odoms, he's trying to get out for the screen, only realizing his error as the ball arrives. Odoms catches and quicks his way past the safety, picking up the first down and considerably more. With Odoms coming to a stop and a guy in Denard's face he can't wait any longer to make this throw; it is on rhythm. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Omameh -1) | |||||||||||||||||||
O19 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Inside zone | Smith | 4 | ||||||||
Backside blitzer makes this a correct read (ZR+1) Omameh and Schilling(+1 each) successfully crease the DTs, leaving Molk one on one with SLB, who beats him(-1). Smith is tackled by that guy. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling, Omameh | RUN- | Molk | ||||||||||||||||
O15 | 2 | 6 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4- | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | -2 | ||||||||
This one also appears designed to go right up the middle, but Omameh(-1) is beaten by the slanting DT and there's nothing. Robinson has a chance to hop outside and maybe beat the backside DE but slips and is tackled for a loss. RPS -1; this slant killed the play. Run minus: Omameh, Dorrestein | |||||||||||||||||||
O17 | 3 | 8 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 10 | ||||||||
UConn stunting, which takes the playside DE inside. He's walled off by Huyge(+1); Schilling(+1) absolutely blasts the playside DT, erasing him; Smith shifts outside the DE when he sees the way the play is developing; Smith and Roundtree get blocks downfield and it's first and goal. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling(2), Huyge, Smith, Roundtree | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O7 | 1 | G | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside zone | Shaw | 3 | ||||||||
Correct read with a backside blitz. Schilling kicks out his DT; Molk plows the MLB; Omameh cannot handle his DT, who comes off him to make a play a few yards downfield. Not minus-worthy but I was thinking about it. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O4 | 2 | G | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Goal line | Run | Inside zone | Shaw | 4 | ||||||||
Basically the same play; Schilling(+1) again does a great job of kicking out the DT; Molk(+1) gets out on the MLB, and Omameh does enough on the other guy, falling to the ground but getting in the way of him. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling, Molk | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-0, 9 min 2nd Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
O8 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Robinson | 8 | ||||||||
Robinson correctly reads the crash (ZR+1) and pulls it out, finding himself in open space. Huyge can't maintain his block on the outside but he's blocking the handoff so not his fault. Robinson jets for eight. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O16 | 2 | 2 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 6 | ||||||||
They do get the intended crease this time (no slant from the DE) but the MLB fills immediately, bashing Smith close to the LOS. Robinson(+1) darts around Molk and has the acceleration to dart up into the crease behind him before Omameh's guy can come off and grab him. He does manage to reach out an arm and spin him down. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Molk | RUN- | Smith | ||||||||||||||||
O22 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 0 | ||||||||
The read here should be keep but this might not actually be a read since he just ran twice. I have to assume it is, though, so: ZR-1. Smith has no hole because Omameh(-1) did not seal his man; that delay is enough for the backside DE to tackle for nothing. Run minus: Omameh, Robinson | |||||||||||||||||||
O22 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Pass | PA throwaway | Roundtree(?) | Inc | ||||||||
UConn blitzes right into this, getting an unblocked guy in Robinson's face before he even has a chance; a slanting player has slashed past the fake run blocks and is also in the backfield. Robinson avoids one guy, then the other guy, in a remarkable Houdini act. With another couple guys coming in to crush him he just chucks the ball hard, deep, and on a line well past Roundtree. Was he trying to complete this? Does he just throw everything like this and has no deep ball? I don't know, but the benefit of the doubt goes to the guy who just escaped two defenders and is chucking the ball away. (TA, 0, protection 0/2, team, RPS-1) | |||||||||||||||||||
O22 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Jailbreak screen | Stonum | 4 | ||||||||
UConn prepared for this, with the SLB in a position where there's no way anyone is going to be able to block him. Stonum(+1) does well to run through his tackle but he can't make the second guy miss. (CA, 3, screen) | |||||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-3, 1 min 2nd Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
M19 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | ZR Bubble | Roundtree | -1 | ||||||||
Denard pulls it out with the DE crashing (ZR+1) but Huyge(-1) and Webb(-1) both have ineffectual blocks so DR goes to his safety valve; Odoms(-1) can handle his guy and it's a loss. (CA, 3, screen) Run minus: Huyge, Webb, Odoms | |||||||||||||||||||
M18 | 2 | 11 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Quick out | Roundtree | Inc | ||||||||
This is a quick rollout with the two guys running an out and a fly to test the cornerback in a presumed zone; Denard throws the quick out before the play develops, allowing the corner to come up and crush Roundtree, separating him from the ball and knocking him out for the game. Another beat and he would have probably had Stonum, or the corner would have backed off Roundtree. (BR, 1, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||||||||||
M18 | 3 | 11 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Deep hitch | Grady | 16 | ||||||||
Great protection leaves Robinson all kinds of time, and there's a fifth guy spying. Robinson waits for Grady to clear the linebacker level and sit down in the hole in the zone, then zips one in a decent window right on the numbers for a first down. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||||||||||
M34 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 4 | ||||||||
Same as previous plays; Webb(-1) just runs by the backside DE; Omameh(-1) cannot contain his man, and both of these guys get arms on Smith at the LOS. He does a good job of running through those tackles and getting a decent gain anyway. Schilling got his guy sealed again. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling, Smith | RUN- | Omameh, Webb | ||||||||||||||||
M38 | 2 | 6 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB stretch | Robinson | 3 | ||||||||
Molk(+1) gets a seal on the stretch block against that DT Omameh's been struggling with as Omameh heads to the second level, where the LB heads outside of him; Dorrestein(+1) pancakes the DE. Robinson should cut it up in between the C and T but heads outside, where Smith manages to wall off the SLB Omameh had no angle on. This leaves an unblocked safety to fill. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Dorrestein, Molk | RUN- | Robinson | ||||||||||||||||
M41 | 3 | 3 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Slant | Odoms | 9 | ||||||||
Smith runs the flare again, drawing up the WLB and opening a window in which Robinson zings a first down completion. Slightly high, but ok. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||||||||||
M49 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 1 | ||||||||
Correct handoff with a S waiting for him and Webb going to block the crashing DE. Story is again the same: Omameh(-1), even with help from Dorrestein, cannot contain DT99, who forces himself over into the hole, leaving nothing for Smith to do except run up the back of his OL. If I was grading the UConn D he'd be en route to +10 or better. ZR+1. Run minus: Omameh | |||||||||||||||||||
50 | 2 | 9 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 4 | ||||||||
No crash; correct handoff(ZR+1). Omameh(+1) does seal and kick the DT this time; they're running it to the opposite side. Unfortunately, Schilling(-1) can't get any drive or seal and Smith has to cut it back; Huyge(-1) whiffed on the SLB. Smith meets two guys two yards downfield and burrows for two more. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Robinson | RUN- | Schilling, Huyge | ||||||||||||||||
O46 | 3 | 5 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Slant | Stonum | 11 | ||||||||
The flare again sucks a linebacker up to it, leaving Stonum in a big hole in the zone. Zing, bobble, catch, first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||||||||||
O35 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips TE | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Bubble screen | Grady | 4 | ||||||||
Safety walks down. This bubble is the short bubble where the receiver does not run the full route in the hopes of finding space between the freakin' out LB over the slot and the interior defense. This not so much. Odoms does manage to cut his guy but a safety charges up as soon as it looks like a bubble and snuffs it out. Michigan will use this later. (CA, 3, screen) | |||||||||||||||||||
O31 | 2 | 6 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB stretch | Robinson | 5 | ||||||||
Dorrestein(+1) cuts the backside DT to the ground, removing him totally. Molk(-1) gets pushed back and Robinson has to cut behind; this open because of the Dorrestein chop. Omameh releases into the second level but ends up blocking no one, which is unfortunate because Denard squeezes through arm tackles only to take his first real shot of the day from a safety a yard short of the sticks. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Dorrestein | RUN- | Omameh, Molk | ||||||||||||||||
O26 | 3 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 3 | ||||||||
TV misses this play. | |||||||||||||||||||
O23 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 4 | ||||||||
This again. Omameh(+1) does get enough of the DT for the RB to skip by; Schilling seals his guy out. Unfortunately Molk(-1) has a really weird whiff where he just runs away from the MLB, the only person he can reasonably expect to block, and that guy tackles. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Schilling | RUN- | Molk | ||||||||||||||||
O19 | 2 | 6 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Flare | Smith | -1 | ||||||||
Incorrect read by Robinson as the LB is flying out of the zone and Michigan again has the slant they've worked for a bunch of first downs. He instead throws the flare, getting Smith whacked by the corner. (BR, 3, protection NA) | |||||||||||||||||||
O20 | 3 | 7 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Scramble | Robinson | 11 | ||||||||
UConn in zone and does a great job of covering a slant/wheel to the top of the screen Denard is looking at. Same thing on the bottom, same coverage. No one open, he takes off, darting past outstretched hands for the first down. Bonus: Smith's wicked blitz pickup. (SCR, --, protection 2/2) | |||||||||||||||||||
O9 | 1 | G | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB stretch | Robinson | 5 | ||||||||
Playside DT just surges forward and falls, almost cut-blocking Molk. A charging LB darts past Webb, leaving two guys for Smith to block on the outside; the DT's fall has provided a cutback lane. Dorrestein(-1) could not cut the backside DT at all so he's there, but Robinson's hesitation move gets him to delay in case he cuts back around him, opening up a hole to dart into. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Huyge | RUN- | Dorrestein | ||||||||||||||||
O4 | 2 | G | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Belly Keeper | Robinson | -3 | ||||||||
DR seems en route to endzone when he bobbles and drops the ball. Never really had it after the exchange. | |||||||||||||||||||
O7 | 3 | G | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB stretch | Robinson | 0 | ||||||||
Blitz into the play cuts off the outside and gives UConn another guy on the inside to snuff this play out. RPS -1. Michigan will use this later, too. | |||||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(24), 24-10, 7 min 3rd Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
M11 | 1 | 10 | Ace 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Run | Dive | Shaw | 5 | ||||||||
End around fake from Odoms; this is just a straight handoff up the middle. Omameh(+1) and Schilling(+1) crease the DTs and Molk(+1) nails the MLB; OLBs converge to tackle. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Schilling, Molk | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M16 | 2 | 5 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-4 | Run | Off tackle | Shaw | -10 | ||||||||
Omameh(-2) completely pwned by the DT, who I will name for you at this point: Kendall Reyes. Shaw(-2) compounds matters by dancing backwards instead of just trying to cut behind the mess and get back to the LOS, getting shoved and tackled for a huge loss. Run minus: Omameh(2), Shaw(2) | |||||||||||||||||||
M6 | 3 | 15 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB draw | Robinson | 15 | ||||||||
A give up and punt play, which is reasonable given the game situation and your sophomore QB. Except, uh? first down. UConn rushes four and has three LBs in the middle of the field. Smith(+1) gets enough of the MLB; Grady and Robinson get in the way, and the other Robinson(+1) gives a tiny hip fake that causes one of the LBs to hop outside the blocker; he continues upfield, getting submarined, flying for the first down, and giving his hip an owie. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Robinson, Smith, T. Robinson, Grady | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M21 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read keeper | Gardner | -4 | ||||||||
Correct read (ZR+1) as the DE crashes but a terrible decision by Gardner(-2) to attempt to go outside of Koger and his man when the interior line was crushing that side of the line downfield. Koger(-1) also should have done better. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Dorrestein | RUN- | Gardner(2), Koger | ||||||||||||||||
M17 | 2 | 14 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Zone read belly | Smith | 13 | ||||||||
Another good read (ZR+1) with an outside blitzer and the fake is good enough to suck two guys outside and give Smith a big cutback lane he takes. Omameh(+1) crushed Reyes on this play; Dorrestein(+1) sealed off the SLB. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Gardner, Omameh, Dorrestein | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M30 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-4 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 4 | ||||||||
Surprise. LBs flying downhill at this, filling the hole, but Koger(+1) and Dorrestein(+1) have doubled the playside DE, driving him well back and giving Robinson a lane outside he takes for the first down. Robinson is too quick for the alley guy. (RPS-1) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Koger, Dorrestein, Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M34 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun trips | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Flare | Smith | 8 | ||||||||
Fourth or fifth time they've run this; this time the LB sticks in the middle of the zone and Robinson nails Smith with a perfectly placed touch pass that he can ramble up the sidelines with. (CA+, 3, screen) | |||||||||||||||||||
M42 | 2 | 2 | Shotgun trips | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | PA Bubble Post | T. Robinson | 43 | ||||||||
Dorrestein(-1) completely whiffs his cut block as Michigan goes for a fake handoff, then a fake bubble that sucks the UConn linebacker corps to the LOS in a fashion I've never seen before. Robinson has two guys running wide open and picks Robinson's post because it's probably the primary read; he does this with a guy in his face so it's kind of a tough throw. It's on the money 20 yards downfield, providing Robinson the ability to run after the catch, so it gets a DO. (DO, 3, protection 0/1, Dorrestein, RPS+3) | |||||||||||||||||||
O15 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 5 | ||||||||
Eighth guy in the box is coming down hard in the G-T gap so Smith has to squeeze between the two guards; both have maintained good blocks. At this point the backside DE is crashing in and the eighth guy has adjusted, so the tackle. Smith does a good job of getting some YAC. RPS-1. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh, Schilling, Smith | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O10 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Sack | -- | -1 | ||||||||
PA rollout finds no one open for Robinson so he tries to run it; this is well defensed. Good D by Uconn, correct decision by Denard. (TA, --, protection NA) | |||||||||||||||||||
O11 | 3 | 6 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 0 | 4 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Flare screen | Smith | 11 | ||||||||
UConn blitzes right into this, and gets DOOM'D for their trouble; you can hear Michigan Stadium go "yeeeeeah" as soon as they see what the playcalls are. RPS+2. There are only two guys to the same side of the field as Smith and four blockers; Huyge(+1) and Odoms(+1) do excellent jobs and Smith can walk it in. (CA, 3, screen) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Odoms, Huyge | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown (missed XP), 30-10, 13 min 4th Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | ||||||||
M23 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Shaw | 3 | ||||||||
UConn is pouring downhill at these so I won't judge too harshly on a drive when Michigan's just trying to put a game that's already put away fully underground. Omameh(+1) gets a good block; Molk's angle out of the line does not take him through defenders, and the crashing DE is crashing so hard Shaw again has to go behind a guy and get what he can, which is three since there are linebackers everywhere. I'm not going to ZR this either because the game's done and Robinson doesn't need more carries. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M26 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Zone read keeper | Robinson | 9 | ||||||||
Okay, I will. UConn pulls an LB down to the line to combat the second TE, Webb(+1) kicks him out. DE crashes, Robinson pulls (ZR+1), Huyge wipes out Lloyd (easy), and Robinson shoots up in the gap provided by Schilling and Webb, cutting behind the SLB after five yards to pick up nine. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Webb, Huyge, Schilling, Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M35 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Zone read keeper | Robinson | 8 | ||||||||
Basically same thing as M finally starts testing a UConn D intent on shooting the DE down the line. Here MLB Lloyd is the scrape guy and starts hauling ass after Denard immediately, but Denard just outruns him to the corner easy. Koger got a block on the playside DE. (ZR+1) | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Koger, Robinson | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
M43 | 2 | 2 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Iso | Shaw | 3 | ||||||||
Reyes submarines Omameh and falls; Schilling(+1) seals his DT; Molk(-1) whiffs on Lloyd, who meets Shaw a yard past the LOS thanks to the excellent Schilling block; Shaw just blows him and gets the pile to fall the right direction. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Schilling | RUN- | Molk | ||||||||||||||||
M46 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 4-4- | Run | Broken play | Shaw | -1 | ||||||||
Shaw and Smith bump into each other, almost certainly because Smith gets the wrong playcall. Not going to bother with the blocking because who knows? | |||||||||||||||||||
M45 | 2 | 11 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Pass | Waggle TE flat | Koger | 10 | ||||||||
This sucks the WLB to the fake and gets Koger open in the flat. Robinson gives him a soft toss and he turns it up to get near the first down marker. (CA, 3, protection NA) | |||||||||||||||||||
O45 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 2TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | QB lead draw | Robinson | 6 | ||||||||
Dorrestein(+1) and Koger(+1) totally obliterate the playside DE, catching the linebackers up in the wash and letting Robinson just run up their backs for five. This is a variant of the regular draw where they're doubling one particular member of the DL on short yardage. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Dorrestein, Koger | RUN- | |||||||||||||||||
O39 | 1 | 10 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Inside zone | Smith | 0 | ||||||||
At this point I'm not really interested. WOOOOO. Omameh gets the main demerit, but I'm not sure what Molk is doing either? at this point whatever. | |||||||||||||||||||
O39 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun H-back | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-4 | Run | Belly handoff | Smith | 3 | ||||||||
I understand this blocking so I'll chart it: again with the inside zone; Omameh(+1) gets a goot block; Schilling a bleah but acceptable one; Molk(-1) gets the ole job by Lloyd. Kind of disappointed in Molk's downfield blocking this game. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh | RUN- | Molk | ||||||||||||||||
O36 | 3 | 7 | Shotgun 3-Wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Hitch | Stonum | 7 | ||||||||
Simple pitch and catch, well timed if a tiny bit upfield. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | |||||||||||||||||||
O29 | 4 | 1 | Ace | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 5-3 | Run | QB sneak | Robinson | 2 | ||||||||
They get it. | |||||||||||||||||||
O27 | 1 | 10 | I-Form | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Iso | Smith | 0 | ||||||||
This is Omameh(-2) getting smoked. Run minus: Omameh(2) | |||||||||||||||||||
O27 | 2 | 10 | I-Form | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Dive | Smith | 1 | ||||||||
Playside DT submarines Molk, taking himself and Molk out and opening a frontside crease. McColgan(-1) makes a really weird decision by hitting one of the contain guys instead of going right upfield and putting his facemask on the MLB's chest. Dorrestein can't cut said MLB and he tackles Smith near the LOS. | |||||||||||||||||||
RUN+ | Omameh | RUN- | McColgan | ||||||||||||||||
O26 | 3 | 9 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Run | Iso | Smith | 0 | ||||||||
Seriously, at this point whatever. | |||||||||||||||||||
O26 | 4 | 9 | I-Form Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | Base 5-3 | Pass | Waggle hitch | Grady | Inc | ||||||||
Can't see this from the tape but I had a good line on this in the stadium and it was open but Denard did not get the ball out fast enough. You can see that Stonum was open on the outside, too. I usually go with IN for balls that aren't bad ideas but are thrown too early/late but with Stonum sitting out there it's BR time. (BR, 0, protection NA) | |||||||||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 30-10, 2 min 4th Q. EOG. |
I'm dizzy because I keep running around in circles screaming "wheeeeeeeeeeee!" I know it's Thursday, I don't care.
Yeah, let's just get right to the—
CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAART
Chart. I've included our Denard Robinson All of 2009 chart for comparison:
[Hennechart legend, or hover over the table headers]
DENARD ROBINSON
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009, All Of It | 1 | 7 | 6(2) | 3(1) | 4 | 4 | - | - | ? |
UConn | 2 | 15(6) | - | - | 3 | 2 | - | - | 2 |
Downfield success rate: 68%.
!!!!!111!111!!!!!!!
!!!!1111!!!!!1111!
I know. There has never been a UFR passing chart devoid of MAs and INs. The full dossier of things Robinson was dinged for:
- Chucking the ball away deep after escaping two unblocked rushers.
- Running out of bounds for a one-yard sack on a waggle play.
- Throwing a flare instead of a slant and getting Vincent Smith hit for a one yard loss.
- Getting Roundtree killed on an out that he caught until it was violently separated from him.
- Throwing a waggle hitch late on the last offensive play Michigan had.
That's it. The first is a good play. The second was a good decision since he had nowhere else to go and is Denard Robinson approaching the line of scrimmage. The other three were passes as deadly accurate as his other 18 but weren't the best options; only on the last was their any chance of a turnover. Everyone's worried about Tate Forcier transferring because of a lack of playing time… but what about Tacopants? He got zero balls.
UConn's secondary has to be terrible.
Yeah… UConn's secondary is probably terrible. They were starting a bunch of freshmen and failed to take advantage of a couple moments where it looked like Robinson was late on hitches. Also all that other stuff happened. Here is the avalanche of caveats and stern looks designed to keep your pants on—
—or put them back on—
TMI—and put Robinson's performance in perspective. Many of his downfield throws were either simple hitches or the slant/flare combo they ran about eight times where Smith would run a flare route, the linebacker to that side would start charging it down, and Robinson would zing a wide-open slant in the vacated space. Once the linebacker charged it down and Robinson threw the flare for no yardage; once he stayed home and Robinson threw the flare for good yardage. Michigan didn't show a whole lot, and for the most part avoided plays that could be risky.
The only play I gave the hallowed DO other than the wide open TRob (apologies for the use of that annoying shorthand but I'm not going to distinguish between the two Robinsons with full names for the next three years) post was this:
And while that's wicked sweet it's the only time he really fit it in a window. Not that I'm worried about his accuracy anymore*. It's more about what happens when his receivers are covered. Can he come off a primary read? Can he consistently recognize when guys are covered? Can he process information fast enough to get the passes out on time? Answers:
- Don't know, as both times UConn covered the primary read they covered everyone and Robinson ran.
- Don't know. He made three bad reads, but didn't throw anywhere truly dangerous.
- Not consistently yet. Some of the CAs above were late but he got away with them, and the last incompletion was very late.
Notre Dame and their veteran secondary will be another test.
On the other hand, how many times did you see Pat White zinging balls to hopelessly, almost unbelievably wide open receivers? Part of the magic of the offense is that when you can run 70% of the time and still put up first downs and string together long plays, things like that Robinson-to-Robinson pass where there isn't a defender in the same time zone as the receiver happen. The burden on Robinson to read defenses is going to be so much lower than it would be for a Henne or Tate because it's impossible to leave two high safeties against him (or at least a terrible idea) and taking a step forward is the best play-fake in the world.
Also, on third and 11 up 11 with this guy who wasn't even a quarterback last year, Rodriguez let 'er rip. They have some level of confidence there.
*(WOOO)
My pants—
More charts! Receiverchart:
This Game | Totals | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Stonum | - | - | - | 5/5 | - | - | - | 5/5 | |
Odoms | - | - | - | 2/2 | - | - | - | 2/2 | |
Hemingway | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Jackson | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Roundtree | 1 | 0/1 | - | - | 1 | 0/1 | - | - | |
Grady | 1 | - | - | 3/3 | 1 | - | - | 3/3 | |
Robinson | - | - | - | 1/1 | - | - | - | 1/1 | |
Stokes | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Koger | - | - | 1/1 | 2/2 | - | - | 1/1 | 2/2 | |
Webb | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Smith | - | - | - | 3/3 | - | - | - | 3/3 | |
Shaw | - | - | - | 1/1 | - | - | - | 1/1 | |
Cox | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Hopkins | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Toussaint | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
An exceptionally unchallenging day, but one on which they made no mistakes. Having Koger go 3/3 is encouraging. The only hypothetically catchable pass that wasn't was the one on which Roundtree got blown up. Hard to blame a guy for that.
PROTECTION METRIC: 12/16, Dorrestein –1, Omameh –1, Team –2.
Low sample size makes it tough to get a read but since the Dorrestein –1 was a failed chop block on the TRob post and the team minus was getting overwhelmed by a blitz into play action the initial returns are pretty good. No minuses from the tackles when they're actually setting up to pass block is win.
Rock-paper-scissors: +13, –7, TOTAL +6.
This may even be pessimistic since I started dinging Michigan points for running the same stuff over and over again when they probably put away the tricks because they didn't need them and I think I even RPS-1ed a successful QB lead draw on third and one because UConn was all over it. Is it really a bad decision if they leap all over it and still can't stop it?
It'll be interesting to watch this over the course of the season—Robinson's promise is that he can drop more RPS+3 plays this year than Michigan has in the last two seasons combined.
All right, now… the run game, which was the bulk of the offense?
Right, so this is the first time I'd ever systematically done this and it could end up being totally whack but here it is anyway:
Chart.
Offensive Line | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Huyge | 7 | 2 | 5 | No pass rush minuses, too. Excellent day. |
Schilling | 13 | 6 | 7 | Clearly the best interior OL on the day. |
Molk | 10 | 5 | 5 | Had some downfield whiffs. |
Omameh | 15 | 16 | -1 | Major issues with Kendall Reyes. |
Dorrestein | 9 | 4 | 5 | Couple of pancakes. |
Webb | 3 | 2 | 1 | Seemed better. |
Koger | 6 | 1 | 5 | ! |
TOTAL | 63 | 36 | 27 | Splat. |
Backs | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Robinson | 17 | 6 | 13 | Woo ha! |
Gardner | 1 | 2 | -1 | Should have cut his loss upfield for a big gain. |
Shaw | 7 | 2 | 5 | Lot of hopping on bad ZR decisions. |
Smith | 7 | 1 | 6 | TD killer. |
Cox | - | - | - | DNP |
Toussaint | - | - | - | DNP |
Hopkins | - | - | - | DNP |
McColgan | - | 1 | -1 | Eh. |
Jones | - | - | - | DNP |
TOTAL | 33 | 15 | 18 | Zip. |
Receivers | ||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes |
Stonum | 1 | - | 1 | -- |
Odoms | 4 | 1 | 3 | Wha? |
TRobinson | 1 | - | 1 | -- |
Roundtree | 3 | - | 3 | -- |
Grady | 1 | 3 | -2 | Negs on the bad reverse. |
TOTAL | 17 | 10 | 7 | !?!?!? |
Metrics | ||||
Zone Read | 10 | 3 | 7 | Just Robinson. Gardner also had a 2-0-2. |
I have no idea what the context is here and think I should separated out carrying and blocking +/- for the RBs, since the former seems more important than the latter but it essentially bears out what I thought when watching the game. The tackles were surprisingly good but not that involved on a day when Michigan did almost all of its damage up the middle. Schilling took a major step forward, something that's echoed by NFL draft types:
Steve Schilling/G/Michigan: Schilling, who looked liked a star in the making as a freshman, has struggled the past few seasons adjusting to Michigan's motion offense. On Saturday, he showed signs of major improvement in his ability to block on the move and annihilate opponents at the point.
Molk was good but did not execute many of his patented reach blocks because of the interior focus and whiffed on MLBs a bit too often for my tastes.
And Patrick Omameh struggled. He didn't exactly lose out, but as the only guy on the line anywhere near even he stood out as a sophomore. UConn's Kendall Reyes was a problem all day, bursting into the backfield on the Shaw ten-yard loss and causing most of the bounce-outs. Sometimes this just happens. I remember Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones doing a lot of damage, pointing out how good he was, and hoping this was true both for credibility and what it said about Michigan's offensive line. Jones eventually went in the second round of the NFL draft. I both think and hope Reyes is really good, headed for All Big East recognition. If not, Omameh has a lot of work to do.
What if Robinson explodes or something?
Well, we're in trouble. This might happen. Quarterbacks get injured frequently. But it doesn't appear that they get injured any more frequently when they run a lot, as MCalibur's diaries have shown. There is a slight increase in injury rate that does not rise to the level of statistical significance, which is to say that the numbers suggest there might be a slight uptick, but the rate at which this happens is low enough that we can't be sure. In any case, an extra 2-3% chance your QB goes down is so worth the added explosiveness a guy like Robinson brings.
Heroes?
Almost everyone to some extent but special mention goes to Robinson (obviously) and Schilling.
Goats?
The only person who even remotely qualifies is Omameh and even he did all right.
What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?
Next week's game is going to be interesting on the interior of the line since ND is running a 3-4. Omameh won't have a DT lined up directly over him; that will fall to Molk, who will endeavor to put Ian Williams on rollerskates for the third straight year. Williams has supposedly bulked up and didn't spend most of the last year rehabbing a knee so that matchup should be more even. If Molk can win it consistently, Schilling and Omameh will spend most of their time trying to stay in front of Carlo Calebrese and Manti Te'o, ND's MLBs. Those three matchups will go a long way towards determining the outcome of the game. I expect considerably more variation in the run game, with a lot more stretch plays to test the historically immobile Williams.
In the passing game… well, if Notre Dame leaves primary reads open Robinson will hit them. They will probably have an answer to the slant/flare combo that worked so well for Michigan against UConn, but with so few tricks pulled out of the bag in the first game they'll have to deal with a larger than usual set of plays they have not seen before. That combined with Robinson's legs demanding attention should set him up with a large number of makeable throws as long as he's not stuck with long-yardage situations. That goes back to the interior line, then.
We don't know much, but we'll know a lot more after Saturday.
September 9th, 2010 at 2:30 PM ^
You need to add a "100% pure Columbian awesome" tag to the post.
September 9th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^
how were you able to read that whole article and post a comment within 5 minutes of it being up??
(insert dilithium joke here)
September 9th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^
Well, there goes the rest of the workday. I hope none of my customers really need to talk to me the rest of the day while I gleefully read this.
Thanks and awesome work in advance Brian!
September 9th, 2010 at 3:18 PM ^
Although I think Grady needed to get serious mention in Denard's 32-yard run. He blocked two people en route to the touchdown. Love reading these, though.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^
on that play was perfect.
September 9th, 2010 at 2:46 PM ^
But if Tacopants transfers I'm not sure what I'll do with myself
/s
September 9th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^
Everyone's worried about Tate Forcier transferring because of a lack of playing time… but what about Tacopants? He got zero balls.
If Tacopants feels he can find another program to showcase his talents, well, I'll have to wish him well. He's in good academic standing, right?
September 9th, 2010 at 3:32 PM ^
Dear Tacopants,
Rumors of your unhappiness with your current role in the Michigan offense have been rampant lately. I just want you to know that we have an open roster spot for you, and you are always welcome here.
Sincerely,
Coach Tressel
September 9th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^
Uh, those who stay will be. . . . . . .
September 9th, 2010 at 2:53 PM ^
Last time I check, Kendall Reyes is their captain and has got be good
September 9th, 2010 at 2:57 PM ^
By the interpretation of this other 'blog, Rich Eisen is apparently not a fan of RichRod (near the top):
http://genuinelysarcastic.blogspot.com/2010/09/waiting-on-friend.html
Example cited: http://twitter.com/richeisen/status/23007895147
Interesting... I didn't know where he stood on that issue.
September 9th, 2010 at 2:57 PM ^
is key this week. If we win that battle, everything will open up nicely for the O, and give our D some rest.
Purdue moved the ball well on ND, but didn't convert. We will.
September 9th, 2010 at 2:58 PM ^
(1) Brian - why do Cox/Hopkins/Toussaint register in the chart, despite being DNPs?
(2) APR concerns IF TacoPants transfers?
September 9th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^
I think losing Tacopants is worth the hit to APR. He has infinite eligibility, but his (many) catches have never resulted in positive yardage.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:43 PM ^
Typos; fixed.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:52 PM ^
but the total numbers didn't update for the RBs when the typos were fixed.
September 9th, 2010 at 6:37 PM ^
Need some recalculation in your charts there corch
September 9th, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
thanks.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^
Wow. I'm tumescent after reading that.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:09 PM ^
On the last video, the second DO, if Robinson pump fakes to odoms, he has a WIDE OPEN Darryl Stonum streaking down the near-side of the field for a TD. If the weather permits passing on Saturday, Denard has to take advantage of pump fakes. ND is going to be conditioned that Robinson telegraphs his passes and will look to cheat on a lot of routes, Robinson will kill that D with a few pump fakes.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:27 PM ^
Robinson didn't have time to pump fake on that play, he threw that ball with a guy in his face.
September 9th, 2010 at 5:37 PM ^
given that they just played a team with an inexperienced QB running a system that lives off short routes and let said QB complete nearly 75% of his passes. (31-42 overall, 2-3 on the final drive where it could be argued the game was out of reach; prior to ND's penultimate possession, it was an 8-point game and theoretically a one-possession game, not that I believe Purdue could have converted the two.)
I don't think they have the skill to jump routes ... or maybe to put it differently, I don't think Kelly is going to ask them to gamble like that. Sure, UConn's secondary looked lost, but my understanding was that their defense, particularly against the pass, was supposed to be better than Notre Dame's this year.
And I don't think they'll be in a position to gamble. The safeties will certainly be preoccupied with things like OH DEAR GOD HE'S GOING TO RUN AGAIN PLZ NOT THIS WAY, so it's not like there will be that much deep help if they do cheat on the shorter routes.
However, if they do, I'll certainly be looking forward to the UFR after that. (RPS +2, repeat.)
September 9th, 2010 at 3:18 PM ^
"Denard Robinson Killed Tacopants"
I'm hoping this is tagged in many posts coming in the future.
Thanks. Great work as always
September 9th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^
jes, i am very excite
September 9th, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^
drives me nuts, as do "DRob," the almost certainly soon-to-be-used "CGord," "CJohnson" and whatever stupid abbreviations might emerge - but i can see why we're going to be seeing them. sigh.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:00 PM ^
September 9th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^
Terr....
September 9th, 2010 at 4:29 PM ^
Yeah man, just like kick off your flippy floppies, put on some Jack Johnson and sip on a Corona.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^
Despite the run game dominance we showed against UConn, my favorite quote in the entire UFR is:
"...if Notre Dame leaves primary reads open Robinson will hit them."
That is a million billion zillion light years difference from last year's DR, and can make this offense truly special.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:27 PM ^
I found it funny that an RPS-1 would wind up going for positive yards. Who needs to throw paper when the rock you're throwing is a fucking asteroid?
September 9th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
it shall be called Requiem for Tacopants.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
September 9th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
Is it really a bad decision if they leap all over it and still can't stop it?
Hell, Bo spent 21 years coaching like that, didn't he? He'd be like, "I'M THROWING ROCK" and the defense would throw paper and Bo would throw the the rock AT them.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^
Good point, but in fairness to UMich coaches in the modern era, Bo had way more firepower than most of his Big Ten opponents, mostly because more scholarships were available. He could more often afford to telegraph his intentions on the field. Didn't work so well in the Rose Bowl...
September 9th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
Very exciting to finally see the UFR on offense. The offensive line graded out just about how I thought they would. As the season goes on the O-line is only going to get better, which will make our running game execution a lot easier. Denard's passing was crisp and on point, and while some people are concerned that he was only throwing simple hitches and hooks, he was doing what this offense does (take what the defense gives). His performance was great and just as the rest of the team will continue to grow as the season goes on, so wil Denard. The thing I was most impressed with was the overall discipline of the team. 1 penalty, zero holding or false starts, and the biggest one, no turnovers. If we can continue to keep those numbers low, this team has a chance to go very far.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:32 PM ^
Not too worried about Omameh. It's only his 4th game to start and he's only a redshirt sophomore. I thought he did well for being an inexperienced underclassmen. He'll hit the film room and work on his game this week. Looking forward to our OL dominating the trenches against ND.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
I hope to see some solid improvement from Omameh this week. Hopefully he works well in space handling LBs. The rest of the line looked solid for the most part. I was looking forward to seeing Lewan play, but that looks like it might be awhile.
And I hated the network feed for not focusing on Molk's injury enough. I was actually yelling at the TV. Given how badly he was missed last year, it was a gross oversight to not immediately focus in on him. I think Khoury came in for Molk, but it was hard to tell. Thanks ABC!
September 9th, 2010 at 4:21 PM ^
I think at this point in his development Omameh is more suited to getting down the field and blocking a LB than just blowing a DT off the ball. Going against the 3-4 should play to his strengths.
September 9th, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^
One quick question: How do Cox, Toussaint and Hopkins have plusses and minuses when none of them played?
September 9th, 2010 at 3:44 PM ^
Poor Tacopants. Receivers are divas too.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:23 PM ^
written by the receiver chart every week through the end of the bowl season. I hope he exhausted his Brooks Bollinger memorial eighth year senior eligibility.
September 10th, 2010 at 12:24 PM ^
Tacopants has infinite eligibility, since he's made of dreams....
"Tacopants"? Tacopants is Jason Avant's eleven-foot tall imaginary friend. Chad Henne spent much of 2005 hitting him between the numbers, which are unfortunately eight feet off the ground and made of dreams. Blessed with infinite eligibility and the ability to sneak on and off the field without alerting the referees -- made of dreams, remember -- Tacopants has taken a lesser role in the offense as Henne matures but still pops up at inopportune times. The term has its genesis in this post.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^
but I don't think that H-Back fromation is new. From your picture above:
Compared to your picture pages on the scrape exchange last year after the game against Western:
http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-scraping-bubbling
They seen almost identical except for the placement of the tailback
September 9th, 2010 at 5:05 PM ^
to what the Packers use from time to time, dropping a TE/H-back into a quasi-RB position as a compromise between a standard two-back shotgun set and a standard 3-WR formation.
Naturally, it's more effective with dilithium in the backfield.
September 10th, 2010 at 8:15 AM ^
Yeah, this was my thought too. That offensive formation is nothing new for Michigan. They used it quite a bit last year.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:06 PM ^
just went head assplode
September 9th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^
"Molk(-1) whiffs on Lloyd, who meets Shaw a yard past the LOS thanks to the excellent Schilling block; Shaw just blows him and gets the pile to fall the right direction."
Talk about offensive innovation. I don't think I can say that I have seen that one on a football field before.
September 9th, 2010 at 4:25 PM ^
Omameh is a gd beast and he will learn and recover. He will be angry Sat.
Schilling dominating on OL - what can be better? D'Stein and Huyge - looks like the push from Lewan /Schofield made them better. Maybe there is something to this competition thing?*
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