ominous news means empty stadium photo [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Had A False Negative Comment Count

Brian October 15th, 2020 at 3:47 PM

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Corona chronicles. How it's going:

  • Missouri-Vandy and Florida-LSU are postponed after outbreaks. They've bumped those games to the open week the SEC implemented before the championship game. Next week's Mizzou-Florida game is in serious doubt since you're supposed to isolate for ten days after a positive test.
  • Ole Miss is having an outbreak but "could play" as of yesterday.
  • Baylor-OSU is postponed after an outbreak at Baylor is blamed on a false negative. An infected person was tested, test threw up a false negative, and then everyone got on a plane. The supposed false negative is from a point-of-contact antigen test. Yikes.
  • FAU-USM is also postponed.
  • Nick Saban and Alabama AD Greg Byrne both tested positive. Saban joins Mike Norvell, Les Miles, and Kevin Sumlin as P5 head coaches who have tested positive.
  • Nebraska announced a free watch party at their basketball arena, and then immediately canceled it. We do not have to revisit our "dumbest way to get coronavirus" gimmicky top five. "Watching Nebraska get hammered by 50 points" was an easy #1 otherwise.
  • CUSA pushed back its title game to December 18th in an effort to get games in.

Saban getting infected is alarming for the Big Ten's prospects. Alabama is Alabama and has been administering daily tests. Saban himself has taken every reasonable precaution. Also alarming: Baylor is using those quick point of contact tests and one false negative blew it all up. Baylor's opsec was insufficient, perhaps inevitably:

Rhoades said his team was "really spaced out well" on the team flight and bus rides and was compliant in wearing masks and goggles in transit. He speculated that spread could have occurred during team dinner the night before the Oct. 3 game or in the visiting locker room at West Virginia's Milan Puskar Stadium, citing "very cramped quarters." Most visiting college football locker rooms are smaller than the home teams' locker rooms.

It is very easy to see this happening in the Big Ten, at which point that team will likely be cancelling three games.

[After THE JUMP: nobody's watching anyway]

Quote from man stabbed. Seven years later, an incredible story arising from the Michigan-Louisville national title game:

My alibi is that I was in the arena at the time, only wishing I could stab someone.

Nobody is watching the sports. It's carnage out there:

There's no one reason sports viewing has dropped off a cliff. It's a combination of many things. This Yahoo article seems to get things exactly backwards:

Activism? Election? Pandemic challenges? New Marist poll suggests none of them are causing sports' TV ratings decline

No, the increased political activism in professional sports doesn’t explain the ratings decline.

And no, the sports where that activism is the most pronounced, like the NBA, haven’t suffered more in comparison.

The presidential election isn’t distracting people from sports.

The changes to the rules and viewer experience during the pandemic have not, in fact, caused people to tune out, either.

It's not "none of the above." It's all of the above. Then this article relates the results from the poll, which clearly state that all of these things have affected some portion of the survey respondents:

64 percent of respondents said the election hadn’t influenced their sports viewing. … The rule changes, most noticeably in baseball, and lack of live fans weren’t a major factor either. More than seven in 10 fans said those were inconsequential.

Put another way, 36% of respondents said the election had influenced their sports viewing and ~30% said rules changes and the weird atmosphere were a factor. Even if there's significant overlap between those two groups—I'm in both—that explains a hell of a lot of the decline in ratings, and then everything happening all at once gets you most of the rest of the way.

Rehashing a 20-year-old loss is on brand. The Athletic has an oral history of That Northwestern Game, which is the exact moment when spread-to-run became the new paradigm. David Terrell: 

David Terrell (Michigan wide receiver): We knew it was going to be a fight as every game is, but who fucking knew we were gonna have to score 50 points to just try to keep a win?

It still stings when people say the things, sometimes.

Danielson: I don’t think Michigan made any changes in defense at all. They lined up the way they used to line up. They didn’t put anybody over the slots. They gave Zak a lot of easy throws. I was just like, “Whoa, they didn’t really prepare for this game at all.”

Not so much because this one Northwestern game was devastating but because Michigan did not learn nearly fast enough from it, despite being the ones getting immolated. That slowness to adapt is the main reason the Big Ten went from Big Two, Little X to OSU dominion.

Four-year Piesman run upcoming. Iowa State has a commit from a QB/DT. Yes. Yes they do:

Never let it be said that there is not beauty in this world.

A very hockey solution. CUSA's attempting to reduce travel and has stumbled on the hockey way to do things:

That'll also give them four days between the Saturday game and the next week to catch any transmissions. Commenters are outraged that you might have to spend four days in El Paso. At least it's not Lubbock?

The worst tournament in sports, continued. The NCAA hockey tournament has announced regional sites through 2026. There is a regional in Toledo. The other "Midwest" regionals: Allentown, PA; Allentown, PA; Maryland Heights, MO; Allentown, PA; Sioux Falls, SD.

At some point some of this falls on Michigan, which should be bidding in Toledo annually. The Toledo bid that did succeed was sponsored by BGSU. But also: when that regional happens it will be a decade since there was a regional in Indiana/Ohio/Michigan, which have almost a quarter of D-1 programs. Incredible.

Etc.: Michigan is a 2.5 point underdog at Minnesota. Quit selling guys, Dortmund. If you bet on "Greek system COVID outbreak" please collect your 35 cents. The Sklars interact with Juwan Howard back when both were students. More details on Mustapha Muhammad's abrupt departure from Michigan.

Comments

biakabutoucan_sam

October 15th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^

Re: viewership, I think the largest issue is cannibalization.

There was nothing and then with a flip of a switch, there was TOO much for even the most dedicated sports fan. Even with extra screens you can't watch it all and, speaking just for myself, you get a little burnt out. Sometimes you just want to relax and watch a movie. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 15th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^

I think it's more of an "the American way" thing.  We bitch about shit enough, then we get it, then we tire* of it rather quickly.  USA, the toddlers world.

 

*at the same time making excuses as to why "it just isn't for me", i.e. pretending fan attendance (lack thereof) has anything to do with the viewed product

LBSS

October 15th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^

This is an interesting take. I don't think I got burned out from too much choice, haven't had any trouble prioritizing (basketball>tennis>everything else). But I might be watching baseball, for example, if the NBA playoffs hadn't been pushed back.

The most mystifying thing to me, or maybe just the place where my n=1 is farthest from reality at large, is the precipitous drop in NBA finals viewership. I don't think I've ever watched more NBA in a two-month stretch. Meanwhile I've barely watched any football or baseball. Speaking for myself, the former is because of disgust with the NFL/NCAA (not sure I'll be able to bring myself to watch UM this year, even), and the latter is because of disgust with my team (lookin' at you, Peter Angelos...time to sell, buddy...).

Kilgore Trout

October 15th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^

For me, I am definitely watching fewer sports. I think it's three fold.

One, things are at the wrong time. My mind just can't quite comprehend basketball and hockey in the fall.

Two, no one that I care about is playing. I am a casual Tottenham fan and have made some effort to watch them, but that's about it. The Tigers were interesting for about 2 weeks, the Lions are the same as always, and the Red Wings and Pistons didn't even get invited to the bubbles. Will be interesting to see if that changes once UM gets going.

Three, watching sports was probably more habit than passion, so when I got out of the habit, it didn't seem that important to get back into the habit, if that makes any sense. 

oriental andrew

October 15th, 2020 at 4:24 PM ^

I agree with you. In addition:

I didn't even realize that all those sports had started up. It was like, "Oh, hockey is on now? And when did baseball start? And is it already the NBA playoffs? When did that happen?" Much of it was the "not in the habit of watching sports" but also the NBA and NHL playoffs in August is just weird and unexpected. If you hadn't been paying attention at all, I feel like it was easy to miss. 

At least the timing of baseball and football is normalish. Only reason I'm watching baseball now is because I grew up in Atlanta and the Braves are my team (15-3 curb stomping at the hands of hte dodgers last night notwithstanding). Only reason I watched any of the NBA finals is because of Duncan Robinson. 

It would be crazy, though, if TB won the Stanley Cup AND the World Series this year. 

TrueBlue2003

October 15th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^

What do you mean they shouldn't be playing?  Like you think it's too dangerous for a group of adults who are extremely low risk to decide they want to be able to work and make a living while being very safe and not at all reckless about it?  You think you know better than they do about whether they should decide to take that risk?

AlbanyBlue

October 16th, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^

This is spot-on. The primary thing for me was that the Wings and Pistons got left out, and it was pretty much arbitrary. For football, no Michigan and the Lions are SOL, though I am still watching my fair share of NFL. I have watched almost no CFB, though that will pick up when the Big Ten starts. I did watch a fair amount of Tigers games -- even though they were clearly bad, they were interesting because of all the young talent.

 

ih8losing

October 15th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^

me personally, less sports watching for a number of reasons.

1. shift in season timing

2. no fans diminishes the game experience in that every game feels like a pre-season game, and I feel that way in just about every sport.

3. Teams I root for are too bad to draw me in

4. Summer was great weather-wise, grey winters in Michigan may change this.  

J. Lichty

October 15th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^

Someone help me out with the TL;DR point of the Daily article about Muhammed.  Harbaugh, (also Sharrone Moore and Harden...but for for sure Harbaugh) knew that Muhammed was accused of sexual harassment, knew that he entered the transfer portal while the investigation was ongoing, and knew that after Muhammed entered the transfer portal an OIE investigation cleared him, and therefore Harbaugh Bad? 

Hopefully there is something that I am missing.

Jonesy

October 15th, 2020 at 7:00 PM ^

Bad thing happened, saying X knew about bad thing, heavily implies you think X is bad. I agree that article was a whole lot of nothing and sounded like they were trying to sling dirt on everyone involved without having any dirt to sling. I kept waiting for the point or the bombshell they seemed to be building toward and all I got was that Mustapha is a pushy flirt, got reported, the people you'd expect to know knew, it went nowhere, he transferred, he feels bad about it. I assume there was no rape or physical assault at all as none was mentioned.

BornInA2

October 15th, 2020 at 4:39 PM ^

Saban has not "taken every reasonable precaution". Go back and look at the closeups of the mask he's been wearing- it looks like screen door material and you can see his face through it. Also watch a game and count how many times he has it off or below his nose.

Then watch the trainers and see what their masks look like and how often they are off or below noses (hint: NEVER). Then let's review your definition of "every reasonable precaution". Another hint: A N95 or KN95 mask won't fall off. And you can talk through one. I've spent entire days in one frequently talking on the phone with AirPods.

Here's what "every reasonable precaution" looks like: Don't play an optional game during a global pandemic.


Here's what "minimal precautions" look like: Wear a fucking medical mask 100% of the time in your office, at practice, and during games. If for nothing else, to set a good example for impressionable young men.

1VaBlue1

October 15th, 2020 at 8:56 PM ^

"Go back and look at the closeups of the mask he's been wearing- it looks like screen door material and you can see his face through it."

So, you do realize that a non-K95 mask is for the protection of others, right?  Not for yourself...  They are meant to keep your snotty droplets and cough/sneeze residue from engaging with others.  So that crappy mesh mask he's wearing is a threat to those around him, not to him directly.

Now, being 69 years old, I'll agree that he should have been wearing a K95 full time...

robpollard

October 15th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^

I can't overstate how stupid Kevin Warren and the Presidents are/were for scheduling a start date with zero byes to allow for postponements due to COVID.

Just typical Big Ten arrogance. Either 1-2 fewer games should have been scheduled, or the season should have started last weekend or this weekend (preferably the latter).

I'll be shocked if the team that wins the B1G title completes all of their 8 regular season games in 8 weeks. Heck, maybe this is our year: we get a 6-1 record to put us over the top & into the title game over a 5-1 team that beat us head-to-head.

TrueBlue2003

October 15th, 2020 at 5:04 PM ^

The season should have started on Labor Day weekend.  It should have started as early as possible.  Yes, they are/were stupid.

But the solution given an Oct 24 start date is not to schedule fewer games.  If they had done that they'd ensure they played fewer games.  At least this way, there's a chance for playing more games.

Carpetbagger

October 16th, 2020 at 9:59 AM ^

I still think they could postpone championship week 1 week and everyone else in college football would give the Big 10 that grace to include an undefeated, or at this point I'm thinking 1 loss works too, OSU/PSU/Michigan in the National Championship tourney.

But to your larger point. Yes, the lack of leadership and acknowledgement of circumstances on the ground and how to overcome those circumstances by those leaders is appalling. Smart people have never looked so dumb.

L'Carpetron Do…

October 15th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^

My interest has been tailing off in recent weeks but I think it will only be temporary. I was thinking that part of the reason the numbers are down for every sport is that every sport is going on at the same time right now, but I think that's hard to determine. 

Eventhough the Knicks weren't in it, I got really into the NBA bubble when it came back and I thought it was great. But my interest really waned in the last few days: Heat and Lakers wasn't a very compelling matchup and soon it became apparent it was going to be a predictable win for Lebron and the Lakers. I even watched some NHL when the Islanders were in it and thought it was pretty good. 

The lack of fans really makes a difference. College football is driven by fans more than any other sport and I've discovered that baseball really suffers from the lack of fans, too. The crowd adds an amazing element to playoff baseball and it's just not the same without it. 

I just wish NFL viewership was down more because I hate it. 

 

TrueBlue2003

October 15th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^

I don't think it's necessarily accurate to say it's "all of them" because it's clearly not activism when you consider NHL was down more than NBA.  Sure, some people might tuned out because of activism but others might have tuned in such that it appears by the numbers net-neutral for the NBA.  Follow the actual data, not what people say to a poll.

The vast majority is "pandemic challenges" specifically these:

1. all four major sports competing against each other at the same time, three of which had their playoffs essentially at the same time.  When there's a Sunday night NFL game happening at the same time as an NBA Finals game, it impacts the ratings for both.  The NBA and NHL were hurt a lot once NFL started.  NFL sucks up the attention of a lot American sports viewers.

2. Funky scheduling (i.e. day games, pause in the season, unusual timing, etc).

The fact the NFL is only down 13% despite having to compete with more sports than usual is quite impressive really.  They're the control group since they're the only ones on their usual schedule.  That's not much different than the 8% it was down in 2016 so if that's the effect of a high interest election, even pandemic challenges have been almost non-existent for NFL viewing. 

PopeLando

October 15th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^

I've been watching a fair amount of football. Every single game, I see tons of players not wearing masks on the sidelines. Coaches with masks below their noses. One time I saw a coach pull his mask away from his face, sneeze into his hand, put the mask back, and then high five someone. Another time I saw some guys on the bench notice the TV camera and all mask up at once.

It just hit me that we're about to see that kind of stuff on Michigan's sideline too. And all the other B1G teams.

Take care of yourselves, everyone.

lhglrkwg

October 15th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^

I'll never quite understand why small schools love this neutral site BS for the tournaments (I assume it's either because they fear they'll never win anything if they have to play a 1 seed on their home ice or if they just love it to spite big schools fans) but it's almost jumping the shark that Allentown has 3 regionals in 5 years and most of the rest of the sites are the same sites that always bid. 2-3 mid-sized cities in New England (Albany, Bridgeport, etc), some place in the Dakotas hoping North Dakota gets placed there, and then some random cities that are about to learn how much money you can lose on hosting a regional. Michigan should just bid Yost as a regional. Didn't Notre Dame just get to host a regional??

Home site regionals. It works for baseball, softball, and a lot of other sports and everyone lives.

Yinka Double Dare

October 15th, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^

Back when there were 12 teams in the tourney and only two regionals some of the schools hated Michigan hosting because it basically didn't matter if Michigan rolled into the tournament as a 5 seed, the arena was all Michigan fans and they'd win their two games and make the Frozen Four and teams seeded better than them hated it.

Of course with four team regionals at four sites, home sites would seem to be very possible but even with these stupid neutral site locations they draw at least 3500 and there's a fair number of arenas that don't even hold 3500. Even though they could also get a bonanza year where a Yost ends up the smallest of 4 one seeds' arenas and they all sell out or sell a lot more than those neutral sites do. 

los barcos

October 15th, 2020 at 5:47 PM ^

Re sports. For me, unless it’s my team (Detroit and UofM) I tune in casually to be part of the community.  But if you’re not really gathering around people at friends homes or bars, then you really lose that sense of community and with it, my interest.

 

Ill be curious to see how I feel with M football, by and large my favorite sport to follow.  It’s certainly possible the weirdness of it all - including almost certainly running out somewhat of a JV roster with multiple starters out at various times - may hamper my enthusiasm this year. 

Montana41GoBlue

October 15th, 2020 at 5:53 PM ^

I bet the Mich.-Minnesota game is going to be highly rated - highly watched.  Its at night with two top 25 teams. Fleck v JH too. First highly anticipated start for Milton.  All will increase viewership. 

Blue Vet

October 15th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

Yahoo's analyst naively seeks THE single and total reason, rather than understanding that in the real world, reasons and influences overlap. A very yahoo perspective.

As for Lubbock, it has a nice cafe. Or at least had one back in the day.

 

bronxblue

October 15th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^

I think a fair number of fans are sort of burned out by the world right now and while sports is a release for some it's not necessarily true for everyone.  And so before perhaps you had people out of habit watching now transitioning to other forms of entertainment quickly.

I would be interested to know if these downturns in viewership capture all forms of media consumption or just TV viewership.  Not that I think it makes a ton of difference, but some sports have really strong social media presences that may, from a business standpoint, be more useful for them than pure TV ratings.

Also, I really don't think we're going to get a full season of football in the Big 10.  Those Baylor and Alabama stories are not encouraging.

Jonesy

October 15th, 2020 at 7:04 PM ^

Personally I only watch college football and basketball, and mainly just Michigan, so my viewership has dropped off a cliff! I have watched more golf than i have in decades because when i take the kids to visit the parents they have golf on almost every time. So that graph makes sense!

Spitfire

October 15th, 2020 at 7:07 PM ^

Just goes to show the NFL is still king as far as the big 4 sports go especially with the other 3 having playoffs. Personally I've watched some golf, a little bit of college football waiting for Michigan to start and all the Seahawks games. That's about it.  

Teeba

October 15th, 2020 at 7:14 PM ^

I just assumed Saban was inhabiting the same sort of bubble as Putin.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/world/europe/putin-virus-russia-bubble.amp.html

Naively, I would have assumed that sports viewership would have gone up because we’re stuck at home. But I think the commenter who mentioned “breaking the habit” really nailed it, at least for me. I still check ESPN and ABC and BTN Saturday morning (west coaster here). When I don’t see a big ten game I turn the tube off and go on with my life.