Michigan’s victory over Ohio State was both entirely foreseeable and yet shocking.

As I noted in the preview…

“There really is good reason for Michigan to believe they can hammer away at Ohio State’s inexperienced defensive front and pick up steady gains. Oregon did it with a weaker and less multi-faceted offensive front. The Ohio State defense who lost to Oregon is still there somewhere, buried under the scarlet, grey, and offensive deluges which have shielded them from exposure.”

Michigan out-rushed Ohio State 297 to 64.

They whipped them in both trenches, despite their oft-bemoaned “inferior” recruiting, and won a classic Big 10 snow game.

The season came down to a 4th quarter drive with Michigan up 35-27 and 4:13 remaining on the clock. The Wolverines came out in a spread set, isolating their front six against the Buckeye front six, and ran a counter scheme. Hassan Haskins powered through a massive hole and broke a late arm tackle by the Buckeye Mike linebacker for 17 yards.

Four plays later and the Buckeyes weren’t even trying but instead allowing Michigan to score (as though it would have made a difference) so they could get the ball back for their own offense.

Two minutes of clock used up and seven more points on the scoreboard. Ohio State couldn’t manage anything on their next drive and soon the field was covered with exuberant Michigan fans. Ohio State was beaten. A Big 10 Championship could be next! A National Championship could be next?

[BREAKING DOWN MICHIGAN’S BIG WIN AND POSTSEASON CHANCES AFTER THE JUMP]

Isolating Ohio State’s weak spot

The spread offense is good for isolating a weak spot. My prescription for this game was actually to load the field with tight ends so the Buckeyes couldn’t avoid having to field linebackers and make good fits, but with the game on the line Michigan opted for this set.

Those wide receiver splits are generally a tell a run is coming. Baylor’s “veer and shoot” RPO offense under Art Briles was all about these sorts of splits, the goal was to create WIDE open alleys to run the ball into.

Ohio State’s answer, as you can see beginning to take shape here, was to bring the nickel late from the field as an extra man to stop the run, rotate the field safety down over the slot, and then rotate the boundary safety deep. Not a good idea, really.

The deep safety is now the guy who has double the tackles this season of anyone else on the Buckeye defense and it all comes down to a good play by the defensive end and good scrapes and fits by the young linebackers.

Welp...

Defensive end Zach Harrison came to Columbus to rush the passer, not to set physical edges against Michigan guards in the snow. He gets upfield and doesn’t spill the play at all. Weakside linebacker Steele Chambers sort of finds his way to the hole and accepts the tight end’s lead block, although at least he turns the ball back inside. Middle linebacker Tommy Eichenberg seems to have been caught in a blitz and cannot course correct in time to make the tackle.

Deep safety Ronnie Hickman does make the tackle, but after a gain of 15 yards.

The Wolverines picked up a first with a split zone concept, then back to Y-counter from another spread set with ultra-wide splits. This time the Ohio State linebackers were stacked on the opposite end of the formation for a big blitz and when the guard and tight end pulled, there was NO ONE at the second level to even attempt to tackle Haskins.

Ohio State knew they couldn't play base defense and stop Michigan, so they brought a number of blitzes throughout the game. Blitzing doesn't save a bad defense though, it just exacerbates the issues.

When Michigan moved the point of attack it was often catastrophic for the Buckeyes. I’ll venture a guess that the counter play alone was worth close to 75 rushing yards for Michigan in this game and certainly a touchdown.

They also popped and isolated the Buckeye linebackers with the actual isolation play. One such example came on their 13 play, 84 yard touchdown drive in the second quarter.

I’ve got both plays GIF’d on Twitter.

pic.twitter.com/sGijSQL5ll

— Asst to the Minister of Culture (@Ian_A_Boyd) November 29, 2021

Michigan won the isolated battle between the tight end and weakside linebacker in pretty decisive fashion. Ohio State wasn't about it. 

There really wasn’t much Ohio State could do, not when they were getting so badly whipped at the point of attack. Ronnie Hickman (the boundary safety) was routinely parked near the box but the Wolverines would hit him with distractions which preyed on his pass game responsibilities and make him a beat late to put out raging fires set on the Buckeye defensive front.

It was altogether one of the worst Ohio State defensive performances I’ve ever seen. These things can happen though when one team in a rivalry game is laser focused and angry all year and the other is not. Michigan fans know it all too well.

Defensive dare

Good defenses stop the run, great defenses stop the run conservative pass coverages.

In the second half, Michigan benefitted from holding a lead which wouldn’t go away (they scored touchdowns on their first four second half drives, fifth was a kneel out), which helped enable further use of some two-high coverages.

Ohio State still managed to get in 13 rushing attempts in the second half which yielded only 26 yards at 2.0 ypc and a single goal line touchdown which was close enough to be reviewed.

The Wolverines played a ton of bracket coverage, a two-high scheme where the safeties start with some initial depth (10-12 yards) and backpedal as needed with eyes on both the backfield and the receivers with the aim of helping inside out on the deepest route.

So they were able to help against the run, just a bit late, and the strong safety would stay shallower over the tight end before getting depth as needed. When your safeties can process a lot in front of them and the defensive front is strong and disciplined, you can be tough to run on even with two-high coverage shells. It’s fitting Michigan should beat Ohio State by playing so much quarters (or brands of it, at least) given Don Brown’s religious opposition to the scheme and subsequent humiliation at Ryan Day’s hands.

Ultimately, Michigan dared Ohio State to beat them by either running on a six man box or holding up in protection against their edge players. Ohio State couldn’t do it, they were beat on the trenches on this side of the ball as well.

Iowa? Big 10 Championship? Playoffs?

What are the possibilities for this team?

Whipping Ohio State in the snow, at home, with basically a full year to prepare is an achievement but not necessarily indicative of a juggernaut. An 11-1 season and Big 10 East title is a little stronger of a resume and Michigan will clearly be locking down a playoff spot should they go 12-1 with a win over Iowa.

Iowa’s a different animal than Ohio State. Where Ohio State is loaded with elite skill athletes on both sides of the ball but lacked the grit and technique to beat Michigan in the trenches, Iowa has really good skill players but also routinely field some of the best linebackers and defensive linemen in the nation.

This year their Mike linebacker is a fellow named Jack Campbell, he’s 6-foot-5, 243 pounds with 121 tackles and six pass break-ups. They have their normal rotation of big, technical Dutch defensive ends and a really good safety group headlined by nickel/cover safety Dane Belton and free safety Jack Koerner. They tend to mix in some bracket quarters coverages like Michigan uses as well as their traditional Cover 2 they regularly employ over solo-side receivers. The name of the game for Iowa football has always been, “here we are, come beat us.”

They’re typically hard to beat, because they always have length and strength along the D-line and their linebackers are routinely very good. This year is no exception.

However, their offense is not very good and relies heavily on running the ball on stretch zone plays and hitting a few plays on play-action. They've been eking out close wins with defense and protecting the ball on offense. If one of those two things isn't happening, they lose.

Michigan should expect a hard-fought battle, normally Ohio State would dispatch these Big 10 West teams with overpowering offense the Wolverines don't really have. They should be able to choke out the Hawkeyes with a focused effort though, there's simply too much of a talent advantage. Iowa and Michigan are both very Big Ten-ish teams this season and Michigan is a better version of the same sort of approach.

As for the playoffs, it's a pretty open field. Everyone plays great defense in the playoffs these days, the champions need to be able to generate wins with elite level offensive play. This has almost ALWAYS meant NFL-caliber passing offense in recent seasons but the only two teams who a credible claim to that feature (Alabama and Ohio State) are both at risk of missing the boat and getting left out in the snow.

Go win the Big 10 and we'll talk more, but this is a good year for a team like these Wolverines to have a shot in the playoffs.