Roster Set, Let's Talk Minutes: Backcourt
I thought I'd revisit the basketball roster now that it seems set. We covered similar ground in the Always Next Year post on the team, but now that the Minutes Crunch™ is official, let's look at how things might shake out.
Point Guard
[Bryan Fuller]
Starter: Derrick Walton (Jr.)
Backups: Spike Albrecht (Sr.), Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman (So.)
Albrecht's hips and Walton's foot are lingering issues hovering over this spot. Derrick Walton was shut down in January and should be back from just about anything by November. His issues massively blunted his effectiveness. Walton went from a 45/41 percent shooter to 32/34. It's never good when a shooting line forces me to remind readers that the first one is twos and the second is threes.
Just about every part of Walton's statistical profile was static or regressed save his reliably mansome defensive rebounding; how much of that was the injury? How much was disorientation in an environment far more focused on his output? How much was just flat-out poor play?
We're hoping the answers to those questions are "lots," "some," and "not too much considering." Michigan and LaVall Jordan's point guard track record should mean that is close to the truth.
Still, the version of Derrick Walton Michigan gets is a major question mark for the season. Point guards have universally played above expectations since Darius Morris's freshman year. I just don't know what expectations are for Walton anymore.
Meanwhile, Spike Albrecht's presence would have certainly mitigated any downside here if he wasn't in the midst of dual hip surgeries. Instead he just probably mitigates any downside. The media has been told that he should be back in five or six months, no problem, but there are whispers he might be forced to redshirt. Albrecht was low usage and could not sustain his ludicrously low TO rates when forced into extensive action; he also led the post-LeVert team in assist rate by a huge margin and maintained shooting efficiency in a more difficult environment.
Spike was a major reason Michigan managed to remain competitive without Walton and Irvin. In the twelve games Michigan played without those two stars, Spike scored in double digits nine times, shot 45/43%, and had a stellar 60:19 assist:TO ratio. Even before the injuries Michigan was leaning on him heavily for minutes until the freshmen were somewhat more prepared. A senior reprise would have been most excellent. Is that still possible?
If not, MAAR steps into the breach. There are worse backup plans to your backup plans than a guy who put up 18 at Michigan State as a freshman and harassed DeAngelo Russell into an awful game. MAAR needs to work on his deep shooting (29% on fewer than two threes a game) and passing, but Michigan hasn't had a guy who can get to the basket like him since Trey. A bit more on him in the next section.
Minute projection: Fuzzy with injury issues. Call it Walton 25, Albrecht 15.
[After the JUMP: Caris, Dawkins, and the cavalry behind.]
Shooting Guard
[Bryan Fuller]
Starter: Caris LeVert (Sr.)
Backups: Spike Albrecht (So.), Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman (So.)
Hey! Caris LeVert. Michigan gets back a probable NBA first round draft pick for his final year, so that's nice. LeVert took on a Trey-like portion of the offense when he was available last year, and his efficiency suffered.
He's never been an efficient scorer inside the arc, as he doesn't get to the line much and tends to get stopped short of the basket. Just 17% of LeVert's shots came at the rim last year, which was less than Spike. (Your undisputed champ amongst last year's non-posts: MAAR at 34%.) The hope was that added weight would help Caris bang his way to the bucket, but the overall degradation of the offense overwhelmed any improvements he made in that department.
The rest of his statistics are solid. His three point shooting barely dropped off despite increased focus on him; he had a ton of assists and a reasonable TO rate given his role; he is a good defensive rebounder. As an all-around player he is a major asset, and if Michigan successfully spreads their shots around like we they would last year the efficiency will creep back up.
One area for concern: defense. LeVert has carried a reputation as a defensive stopper for a while without doing much other than having really long arms to justify it. He did not impress a year ago.
The backups may look familiar since they're the same guys just listed at point guard. Michigan is likely to run out dual point lineups for five minutes a game. Matchups will dictate. If Michigan's opposing a small backcourt or the opponent struggles to check a Walton/Albrecht lineup they could get 15 minutes together. If the opponent has a 6'6" shooting guard they could get zero. But even then, Beilein loves him some Spike.
The aforementioned Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman should get some minutes here. He can ballhawk opponents and drive to the rim. His development will be interesting, if mostly hidden by depth. MAAR was a very old freshman—he and LeVert were born just six days apart. That should lower expectations for improvement, but man when MAAR was on he was on last year, and some of the things he messed up were either nerves (his first few layup attempts were alarmingly off) or in the heart of Beilein's wheelhouse as a coach (shooting).
MAAR could barge his way into ten minutes a game or stagnate and appear only when foul trouble crops up. His sample size is likely to be pretty small, so extrapolating from year-end stats will be difficult. Ideally he gets to the rim like he did last year while adding some assists and getting that three-point percentage up into the acceptable range. Michigan will also want to figure out how viable he is as a point.
Minute projection: LeVert 30, Albrecht 5, MAAR 5.
Small Forward
Starter: Aubrey Dawkins (So.)
Backups: Duncan Robinson (So.*)
This position and the highly nominal "power" forward are identical in Beilein's offense, so I'm putting these guys in bins based on their likely deployment on defense. That means the relatively slight Aubrey Dawkins goes here while Zak Irvin, 25 pounds heavier, will check whatever power forward types end up on the schedule.
Dawkins first stamped his name on Michigan basketball by almost singlehandedly routing Illinois. Dawkins had 20 points on 8(!) shot equivalents, sending Illini fans into feverish Google and Kenpom searches for the random freshman who looks like Humpty Hump. That was only his second game with double-digit minutes; he would not have fewer than ten the rest of the way. After LeVert went down he averaged more than 30 minutes a game. After the dust cleared, he'd hit 48%(!) of his threes in Big Ten play.
That rate is likely unsustainable, but after Beilein tweaked Dawkins's release so he could get his shot off quicker he was deadly. It's a weird shot, very flat, but Dawkins makes it work thanks to his massive vertical.
When not shooting threes, Dawkins had the occasional spectacular dunk… and then didn't do much else. He had the lowest DREB rate on the team, the lowest non-post assist rate on team, the second-lowest FT rate. His defense was a weakness, as well.
All of these things are repairable as Dawkins gets used to what he needs to do in college. It took Zak Irvin a year and a half to break out of his tendency to leave zeroes on big chunks of the box score, but when he did so he did so decisively. Dawkins will probably take longer to do so if only because next year's team figures to have four guys in front of him when it comes to shot creating.
He can still diversify his game significantly. Hopefully Beilein will let him go after offensive boards, where his leaping ability created the occasional spectacular putback. If things go well he should also start getting the opportunities GRIII did during the Burke era. We saw hints of that last year; now that Dawkins looks to be a fixture and the pick and roll should re-emerge as a major factor the dive cut from the wing should result in rim-rattling dunks on the regular.
D-III transfer Duncan Robinson spent his redshirt year learning and pushing Nik Stauskas's various practice marksmanship records. How he translates to a D-I floor is mostly murky, but shooting is shooting is shooting. That goes double when you're a legit six-foot-eight and triple when you're near 90% at the free throw line.
Michigan is looking at a freshman version of Zak Irvin even in a reasonably pessimistic world. That seems good enough for 15 minutes a game if that is all he is, and since he's had three years in a Beilein system (his coach at Williams was an acolyte) there's a good chance he's something more than that. Robinson averaged 6.5 rebounds and almost two assists a game at Williams. He should have the size and knowledge of the offense to chip in on those two fronts.
Defense is obviously the big question. Robinson is still slender, though Camp Sanderson might change that. Also, with the team size Michigan promises to feature he could be a guy who helps out in zone.
Minute projection: Dawkins 22, Robinson 12, Miscellaneous 6. Michigan may also run lineups with LeVert at the 3 when Albrecht or MAAR is playing well, and Irvin will drop down here if Chatman or Wagner or Wilson is having a game.
I think that 5 seems just about right, so I can't tell if you are saying that 5 is too many minutes or too few?
I think you assume Walton//Lever play at least 65 combined minutes, leaving about 25 for Spike and MAAR combined. It may depend on opponents a bit but Spike is going to eat up the bulk of that. MAAR will get time mostly in foul situations and early season one-sided victories IMO.
The thing is he needed the ball to be effective on offense and with Spike, Walton, LeVert, Irvin around, there won't be much opportunity for that.
if they are all at guard, your minutes add up to 90. There are only 80 guard minutes available.
I meant 15 for Spike/MAAR...which is not nearly enough to allow for MAAR to have a significant role and may even bump Caris down to the 3 at times.
I actually expect that Caris will play a little bit at the 3--allowing Walton and Albrecht (and to a lesser extent, MAAR) to play together. So I think they actually have more than 80 minutes to divide--if that isn't inconsistent with my prior comment.
Beilein has often gone small in one way or another. Caris at the 3 is obviously very viable. The question is - would those minutes (going to Spike or MAAR instead) come at the expense of Irvin or Dawkins. IMO Dawkins is too good to sit in favor of MAAR unless he develops into the defensive stopper people seem to want him to be.
He is a pretty streaky player on offense, and maybe the best defender on the team. In both MSU games he played great. I am guessing Beilein will give him some chances each game to see if he can get to the rim and provide a spark.
I really enjoy watching Rahkman play. He really surprised my MSU friends at that game, and even they enjoyed watching him. He has a lot of potential.
He will get his minutes this year. I could see him getting anywhere from 5-15 minutes a game depending on the foul situation and whether he is on a scoring streak. I think he will have a game this year where he surprises people and drops 15+ points off the bench.
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Nice piece.
Michigan really needs him to become a proficient rebounder. Walton is a very good rebounder for his position. LeVert is a good rebounder, and Chatman showed flashes. But everyone else is somewhere between okay and atrocious. I doubt any given four or five man is going to become above-average at rebounding by next year, so the team is going to need a Moneyball approach on the boards.
Beilein 4's never rebound much. They need Doyle/Donnal to step up. With solid rebounding support from Walton, LeVert, and Irvin -- they don't need Dawkins to do a lot more than he did. He really just needs to get more conscientious about boxing out.
Not to say he can't get better, but the burden of responsibility isn't on Aubrey IMO.
I expect Doyle to be the big difference-maker here. Fitness and experience should be significantly improved. Chatman can get a lot better too, but it remains to be seen if he'll have a significant role or not.
...GRIII grabbed 6.4 rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013 and 5.5 in 2014. Dawkins pulled down 4.1 rebounds per 40 minutes last year, which was only 1.2 better than Spike, who was last on the team*. I'd like to see Dawkins at least get to GRIII's 2014 output (and box out more, as you say), because I don't see Doyle/Donnal/Wison matching JMo/Horford (to stick with 2014 as our example).
I know another 1.4 boards per 40 minutes isn't a lot, but Michigan is going to have to squeeze rebounds out of every place it can. Doyle and Donnal were terrible last year on the glass by the standards of recent Michigan centers.
*I'm not counting Hatch, Dakich, etc. there.
EDIT: I just saw that Alex posted the Beilein centers' rebounding percentages on the front page. Doyle and Donnal were really bad using those measurements too.
Novak was in the 5.1-6.6 range, so consistent with GR3. So, yeah, it would be nice if Dawkins bumped from 4 to 5, but he doesn't need to make a major leap.
It's also worth noting that GR3 was playing beside Stauskas, who wasn't a big factor in rebounding (3.6 per 40). Irvin (who was at 5.3 last year) should be better than that, so I expect Michigan to be even more balanced in terms of wing rebounding than in years past. THJ was a solid rebounder tho (around 4.9 per 40). Trey was OK, similar to Stauskas.
So, previously you had two guys who chipped in (Nik and Trey) and two guys who produced about 5, and 6 TRB/40 in the rotation. If we assume that the wings more or less need to produce a similar number of rebounds as GR3 and Nik did, and we assume Zak will stay the same, then yeah, it's fair to say Dawkins will need to pick up the slack. But I think that Walton/LeVert are far better rebounders than Trey/Nik, so I think Dawkins will be fine staying more or less the same. Again, he needs to focus on boxing bigger people out, which sometimes comes at the expense of getting RB stats.
The possibility also exists that Wagner or Chatman or Wilson emerge at the 4 and bump Dawkins' minutes down a bit...
That is sort of why I wish Chatman was a viable player last year - besides well it would help be more optimistic this year. He seemed to actually rebound pretty well for a 4 - that seemed to be the one thing he was consistent at. We need improvement at the 4/5 in rebounding period.
Chatman had more rebounds per 40 minutes last year (6.7) than any non-center of the last three years for Michigan if you either count DJ Wilson as a center or don't count him at all b/c he only played 24 minutes total last season.
And that's part of why many (Most?) fans are still excited about Kam despite the struggles last season.
Kam has a lot to offer, but it seems like getting a lot better at rebounding and having that be his clear asset to the team is his best path for carving out playing time on next year's team. He was a solid rebounder, but he needs to be a rebounding FORCE to compensate for the other deficiencies in his game right now. I think he'll get there, but probably not due for significant minutes this year.
I will personally guarantee that Walton will play more than 25 mpg if he is healthy. Anything less than 30 would be a shock. I would expect closer to 35 than 25. He played 33 mpg as a freshman with Spike as his backup.
Well I guess that means you do think we will blow out many teams where Walton will be taking half the game off to let the bench play.
Is going to be very good next year, so I expect a lot of close games.
I get what you are saying and agree depth will be good, but Beilein is going to play his best guys. Our top 4 plus Spike are A LOT better than the bench depth. The dropoff from LeVert to MAAR or Irvin to Robinson/Chatman is huge. Like Morgan to Bielfeldt huge.
Guys can stay plenty fresh and play 35 minutes a game. We're not running a full court press or anything.
Beilein, like he's always done, and like almost all good teams do in the end, will identify a core rotation of 8-9 guys he likes and trusts. Walton-Irvin-Levert are locks. Spike and Aubrey are going to play huge roles too. Center will be a rotation of the 3 guys. Beyond that you only have room for marginal contributions and possible one other significant role. That's where the playing time scrum will lie: MAAR, Chatman, Robinson, Wagner are likely fighting for scraps.
MAAR was a very solid player for us last year. I'm not arguing that he is better than LeVert, but he did keep us competitive in a few ball games this year that we otherwise wouldn't have been, such as Wisconsin, MSU, OSU. He held his own.
Robinson is an unknown commodity at this point. There are rumorts that he is the third best player on the team. I am not sure I believe that, but if true, he will eat up a lot of playing time. We do know that he beat Nik Stauskas's 3 point shooting drill record. That's pretty impressive.
Chatman could make a sophomore leap. He played at a very high level in a few of the games toward the end of last year. If he can be more consistent, he will get some PT this year.
Wagner is an unknown commodity as well. If he is as good as advertised, he will see significant PT.
Michigan probably has the deepest bench in the conference. My guess is Beilein will try to keep guys fresh until the end of games and limit guys to 32-33 minutes, depending on their performance and foul situation.
He shot less than 42% and had more turnovers than assists. Only one rotation player (Chatman) had a worse offensive rating. The defensive stats weren't much kind (only better than Spike and Aubrey).
He played hard and filled a void when there was nobody else who could create on offense, but that void will be filled next year. Given our expectations for him based on recruiting hype, he had a great year. But set aside expectations and focus on production - he was not a very good or consistent player. He had a heroic performance against MSU, but that was not representative of the rest of his season.
As for the others -- yeah they could all make a leap or outpace the available evidence about their limitations. But Spike, Caris, Derrick, and Zak can all make leaps too.
Even if Beilein limits his big 3 down to 30 minutes a game and Spike and Aubrey to 20 each, that still that still only allows for 30 minutes total for every non-center on the bench. I agree that we could see a breakout from Wilson, Chatman, Wagner, or Robinson... but lets say one of them lives up to hopes and gets 20 minutes a night. You're now down to 10 combined for the other 3.
There's just no way for everyone to play meaningful role without benching all-conference caliber players. This isn't little league and it's also not the NBA. Keeping guys fresh isn't a major issue. Beilein has played 3 or 4 guys over 30 mpg every year and next year will not be any different.
Yes I am with you
I see Caris 35 and Walton 30 as your base in games there is no early 2nd foul in the 1st half. Beilein rides his big guns to big numbers.
I see Spike getting 10 minutes at PG and 5 or so at "SG" (i.e. the Walton/Spike two PG set) and that leaves MAAR with garbage time or playing in games when there is foul trouble on Caris.
This is the reason I simply didnt see Kenny Williams committing here once Caris said he is coming back - there is too much veteran experience at the 1+2 to find him playing time as a freshman. He was basically going to be the Caris replacement along with MAAR.
While this is not a great situation for MAAR for 1 year it is great for Michigan in terms of insurance in case of injury and insurance for any games Caris gets 2 fouls early. It will also help in the Big 10 tournament when quality depth is important - especially for a jump shooting heavy team.
And MAAR will have another year of development for his JR/SR years when he should be a valuable rotation guy. Once teams backed off on his shot and played him for dribble drive (which he is good at) he struggled some - needs to get that outside shot working.
Why ride Caris so hard at 35min per game when he is coming off a twice injured foot??
There is no way I am playing him that much with our depth if I am Beilein. Sure he may play that much in a close important game especially in the tourney, but there is no need to run the risk of wearing him down. I'd keep him closer to 30-32 min/game
You don't have to save anybody when you're playing 2 games a week and they are only 40 minutes. Caris will find practice more taxing than playing 35. Anyway, he's what 20? We're not talking about Duncan and Ginobili here.
I would even add that Caris might see some minutes at the 3 in crunch time, playing alongside Spike and Derrick. It's hard to not imagine Beilein going with his best 5 and at times, when matchups allow it, that will likely include Spike over Aubrey.
If things go well for next year's team, MAAR's role should be very much like Eso Akunne. ~5 mpg when fouls occur.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/eso-akunne-1.html
The year after that he would be tasked with much much more because 3 of our 4 top players will probably be gone.
I love MAAR, but people are badly overrating his potential contributions based on a a couple gritty performances in big games. Michigan needed a scoring hero then - it won't need one next year. For now, he's a low efficiency offensive player, whose primary value comes on the defensive end (where he still has a lot of improvement needed to emerge into the rotation.)
I can see more improvement from MAAR, Aubrey and Ricky. Happy to see a lot of Caris, MAAR, Aubrey, Zak and Ricky in the pivot starting. Of course depends on MAAR developing at the point guard and Aubrey consistently threatening offensively and Ricky truely handling the middle. I personally would like to see Spike and Derrick as point's of energy off the bench.
Why note that the 3 and 4 positions are essentially the same and then break them out separately? I guess you gotta do it somehow.
Backcourt to me in JB's offense is essentially:
Walton
Levert
Spike
MAAR
And the list ends - some breakdown of 80 minutes will exist among these 4 players. I could easily see MAAR being frozen out of playing time completely, or seizing the opportunity and forcing Walton's minutes way down. Spike isn't going to play less than 10 minutes a game - he's too good.
Forwards:
Irvin
Dawkins
Chatman
Robinson
Wagner
Another 80 to be split among these 5. Irvin is going to play 30+, and Dawkins can be expected to play 20+, leaving 20-30 minutes to split among 3 unproven candidates.
Center:
Doyle
Donnal
Wilson
The rotation at the 5 will vary wildly game to game depending on matchups and foul trouble. You need 3 centers. Hopefully Doyle is fit enough to log heavier minutes than he did as a freshman, and hopefully Donnal/Wilson prove viable as backups (neither were last season, obviously due to injury for WIlson).
I found the breakout puzzling too.
One tiny point where I might disagree is PT for Dawkins. By the end of the year he was significantly better than anybody else beside Zak and so I would start with the assumption that he will play 30+ minutes again as well. Contenders to drop him below 30:
- Chatman may make a leap to push him aside, but has a long way to go.
- Robinson is unproven. I don't agree with Brian that it's pessimistic to expect him to be freshman Zak Irvin at least. Irvin was a top 50 recruit who was arguably better than Stauskas was when he was a freshman (both were not good defensively, but Irvin was less awful). Robinson might be able to replicate the just-a-shooting, but the questionmark about his athleticism remains. Matt Vogrich could hit wide open shots too...
- Wagner is another unknown. For all we know Beilein will stick him at Center for small ball lineups a la Smotrycz...
So yeah, any of those guys could take time from Zak or Aubrey, but at this point it's a leap of faith that they will.
Dawkins has the most potential of any player on the team, including LeVert and Irvin. If he can develop an ability to get to the rim, he will be very very dangerous. He has the potential to be an All- American and an NBA star. I'd be pretty surprised if he is only getting 22 minutes a game. I am guessing he will be getting around 30. Wouldn't be surprised if we find him to be our best player by the end of the year.
lol i hope you are trolling
Someone wrote something similar about MAAR a couple weeks ago, calling him a 10 year NBA vet.
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Do the humpty dance!
now that the NBA playoffs have started, I've been watching the Clippers more often. LeVert reminds me of Jamal Crawford. Long-armed, 6' 6" types that can shoot outside and have the ability to cover a lot of ground with 1 or 2 dribbles. Someone had a, "you should watch film of" diary a month or so ago about the basketball team. LeVert should watch Crawford get to the rim. He had some runners last night where he was able to get the shot off before Howard came over for the block. He also missed a lot of shots, but volume shooters will do that. Just watch the made baskets.
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His defensive statistics are pretty bad. Only Spike and Caris were worse. Beilein typically put him on the toughest opponent which should mean a lot more than that -- but he also did that with Caris who is getting criticized for his defense repeatedly on this blog.
IF MAAR evolves into a legitimate defensive stopper, you might be right. But Beilein is an offense-oriented coach, so it's hard to imagine him sitting a guy like Spike for MAAR that often.
Agree - I think his minimum minutes are 5 a game but it will fluctuate based on match-ups, foul trouble and how well he's playing. Another major factor is how healthy Spike is and whether he has his conditioning back.
No knock on Dakich, but it will be nice not having a walkon as your first backcourt reserve off the bench.
I think if the roster stays healthy then 5 minutes is a good estimate of MAAR's minutes. There will be games that he may get 3 minutes minutes and there may be games he gets 7-10 minutes. Spike, Levert, and Walton are all better options, so if they stay healthy then they will get the majority of the minutes. Depending on how the 4's devlop, I could see Kam Chapman blows up or Wagner is really impressive, then Irvin will move down to the 3. Dawkins would then take up some of the SG minutes.
MAAR due to age and lack of upside doesn't make to much sense, but it's at least within the realm of reason.
The best potential candidate IMO would be Chatman, due to his significant upside and room for improvement, but that ain't happening either.
A Spike red-shirt doesn't make much sense unless he's really badly hurt. Walton will most likely be back in 2016-17.
Dawkins is too good to red-shirt.
Wagner didn't come to the US to sit out a year.
I've got it -- Red-shirt Caris LeVert!
Great piece, even if I don't completely agree. Here are some thoughts I have on the original piece and some of the comments:
- Thank you for clarifying how you're splittling out the 3 and 4....which is as good as any other method I've heard. I always see Dawkins emulating GR3 while Irvin has enough ball skills to dabble even at the 2 if needed. But for defensive purposes, yours makes sense.
- I would love to see the minutes stay around 30 at most except in very critical games where things dictate it. Doubt it happens though.
- As much as I like MAAR, I agree that it will be hard to find minutes for him next year with Walton, Spike, Levert, and Irvin on the roster. I do think he could find 10mpg as a defensive stopper though.
- I love the idea of a crunch-time defensive lineup of Walton, MAAR, Levert, Irvin, Wilson
- Given the enormous depth on the roster (a fun change from recent years) I could see Beilein talking to MAAR, Chatman, and Wagner about taking a redshirt. I could also see Spike sitting out if he isn't ready to play, giving his minutes to MAAR. It is unlikely that anyone other than Wagner maybe would do it, but it would help the team and their careers probably.
- Here's my take on Robinson next year.....even if you assume his DIII school was essentially the equivalent of a prep school - how many 6'8" high schoolers put up those shooting percentages, rebound numbers, and then get to take a redshirt year for Beilein? As the equivalent of an incoming recruit with that pedigree and ideal fit to the offense I have to assume he'll find a role in the rotation. I picture him playing 10-15 minutes off the bench depending on if his shot is falling that night.
excited for next basketball season. Almost as excited as I am for football season. Almost.
Man this get's me really excited for the basketball season next year! There are a lot of questions, but they are mostly surrounding how to make all this talent work together well and how much development will the freshmen have. I imagine the start of the season may be a bit rough getting all the guards and wings to gel and getting the posts in the flow. Still, there is a ton of talent here and Beilein's ruthlessly efficient offense always comes around for B1G season.
I know Beilein calls him Rahk, but I like MAAR better, seems more manly.
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