somehow we're only 124th
Previously: Gardening Lessons (The Story), Preview Podcast, Preseason All-Big Ten Teams, Point Guards, Wings Part 1 (LeVert, Irvin), Wings Part 2 (Chatman, Wilson, Dawkins, MAAR), Bigs (Donnal, Doyle, Bielfeldt), Media Day Player Interviews, Big Ten Newcomers, Big Ten Outlook Part 1, Big Ten Outlook Part 2, Mailbag Part 1
Who will get the bulk of the minutes at center? The panelists disagree. [Fuller]
The preview is almost done, but first, Alex and I attempt to answer perhaps the longest mailbag question in this blog's history. Without further ado, a five-part query covering everything:
Can you predict the minutes by position for the roster this year given the unique nature of this team compared to the past rosters?
I'm very intrigued to see how Beilein deals with the youngest but probably deepest and most versatile roster he's ever had. For most years we were scrambling to find 8 usable scholarship athletes and this year we have 11 guys who could see meaningful minutes in any given game. How will he handle that? How will he handle the frustrations that come with so many freshmen learning a complex system? How will he handle the unique skills that guys like MAAR or Wilson offer if they aren't quite the fit into his system?
Ace: I'm going to start from the end—first of all, Wilson is an ideal fit in the system (more on him later), and second of all, if a player is good enough to get on the court, Beilein is going to adjust his team's approach to fit his personnel, as we've seen time and again.
Also, talk about good problems. There really are 11 players who could see at least a consistent bit role this season, though I highly doubt Beilein is going to go with an 11-man rotation; I think he'll whittle it down closer to eight or nine as the season goes on.
My best guess at how the minutes breakdown will look when this team settles into a rotation—in the early going, I expect some experimenting as Beilein figures out what his freshmen can and can't provide:
1) Walton - 30, Albrecht - 10
2) LeVert - 35, Albrecht - 5
3) Irvin - 30, Dawkins - 10
4) Chatman - 25, Wilson - 15
5) Doyle - 20, Donnal - 10, Wilson - 10
Positions matter less than minutes distribution here—Irvin and Dawkins can both play the two, and LeVert can play the three, for example, and those positions very similar in Beilein's system, anyway.
Of the freshmen, I think Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman is the most likely to fall out of the rotation. Michigan has plenty of guards that can handle the ball, Walton's ability as a spot-up shooter will allow for the Walton/Spike backcourt to get a good amount of run, and Rahk's iffy shooting is going to hold him back, especially once M hits the meat of the schedule—Beilein's system doesn't work nearly as well if defenses don't have to respect the outside shot of one of the guards.
Aubrey Dawkins, meanwhile, has the skill set to be an immediate bench contributor. He can defend multiple positions and he can shoot the three; add in his outstanding athleticism, which should make him a good finisher on the break, and it's easy to see a role for him as a three-and-D guy with some upside.
I'm of the mind that all three freshman centers, including DJ Wilson, will get extensive time, and their minutes will wax and wane depending on the matchup; Wilson should see more time at the five against smaller, athletic teams, while Doyle may be leaned upon heavily against a bigger squad like Iowa. I believe Doyle will end up playing the most minutes at the five; I'm a fan of his combination of size and ability to finish near the basket, and for some reason it doesn't feel like Donnal is currently living up to expectations.
[Hit THE JUMP for Alex's guess at the rotation plus our outlook on DJ Wilson, picks for this year's breakout players, and comparable players to this year's freshmen.]
A note. UFR tomorrow. Life things.
Open practice. Basketball had one, and it was fun. The most interesting segment was an "overtime" period in which a mostly first-team unit took on a mostly second-team unit, which one of our users got on the tubes:
Impressions on the new blood:
- DJ Wilson has the potential to greatly improve Michigan's defense. Maybe not this year, especially since they're running him out at the five some, but down the road. He's tall, has long arms, is bouncy, and has the lateral agility to check anyone approximately his size. He was about the only defender who was at all effective in a transition drill where the guy on D faces a 2 on 1. He's going to block a bunch of shots. Wilson played a significant amount of five with the next guy limited.
- Ricky Doyle was participating, but only in short bursts, skipping all the running (he did pushups instead) and mostly watching. He seems limited by some sort of injury. Michigan's going to need him by the time they go to Brooklyn—he's much bigger than Donnal and Donnal struggled to finish at the rim to the point where he was sent on a run up the steps. We might retroactively appreciate Jordan Morgan's finishing this year.
- MAAR is probably your third point guard if Michigan needs to dig that deep because of foul trouble or injury. He was able to penetrate to the lane several times, but like LeVert as a freshman he usually didn't have a great idea what to do after that happened.
- Aubrey Dawkins is inexplicable. The guy is 6'6" and can jump out of the gym. The fact he had to prep and then only had a Dayton offer before Michigan swooped in is hard to believe; a guy with his athletic package should have mid-majors and lesser power conference schools leaping to offer him even if he's never seen a basketball in his life. He's going to be a lot like GRIII, I think.
- Kam Chatman is smooth and skilled. Hard to get any serious impression of shooting ability in this brief window but he looked highly capable there—and that was supposedly his weak spot. Beilein will get you to shoot.
I forgot Duncan Robinson existed so I assumed the guy wearing 22 was a walk-on and didn't pay much attention to him; Hatch participated in some drills early but that was all.
One issue: the audio was severely distorted and made it impossible to hear anything. Hopefully they fix that if/when they do this next year.
Other open practice takes. Kyle Bogenschutz:
Most impressive? Michigan sophomore wing Zak Irvin. Irvin was just doing what Irvin does, knocking down threes from all over the perimeter and at an extremely high percentage. Of the opportunities Irvin had in live settings he didn’t miss many. Early of course and just practice but if Irvin is given some more looks like he had last year he will have a chance to lead the team in scoring despite LeVert being the most complete player on the team.
He also references Wilson's defensive upside.
Offensively, Chatman looks game-ready. The 6-foot-7 freshman is confident with the ball not shy about getting his shot off. Known as a smooth and methodical player, he had a little more bounce than anticipated. The questions for Chatman remain on the defensive end of the floor. Those will be answered with time.
A defense. What kind of argument to you have to make to get me to defend Dave Brandon? This kind:
Applying ESPN Grade To Michigan's Situation: Last Friday, Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon resigned under pressure from boosters and alums unhappy with the football team's decline from the Top 25 and with stadium renovations intended to provide luxury to the 1 percent. Added to the bill of attainder should be that Michigan looks bad on graduation rates. The football graduation rate under Brandon averaged 69 percent, which would be acceptable at some lesser schools but is embarrassing at an elite institution like the University of Michigan.
He later cites Northwestern's 97% grad rate so I know what numbers he is using: the NCAA's graduation success rate metric. The NCAA's GSR site has numbers up to the 2007 cohort, who gradated in May of 2011 if they took four years. That's barely a year after Brandon's arrival and is in no way representative of anything he did academically. Michigan's APR has hit Northwestern levels the last few years as they dig out from the Carr/Rodriguez botched transition, and the GSR will follow… in like five years.
Congrats, Gregg Easterbrook. You have found a bad way to argue for Dave Brandon's dismissal. They said it couldn't be done, but you did it.
Coming up empty. The Daily has an article on Michigan's document retention policy, or lack thereof:
Despite the fact that Michigan state law requires public bodies to “protect public records from loss, unauthorized alteration, mutilation, or destruction,” according to University spokesman Rick Fitzgerald, there is no University policy currently in place to ensure that employees retain communications in accordance with state-level regulations.
State law stipulates that public records be kept and disposed of in accordance with a formal schedule, which requires that correspondence be retained for two years after the date of its creation before it can be destroyed.
University officials, however, claim that on-campus regulations are separate and exempt from state law.
“It’s our policy that it’s up to individual users to determine their own document retention,” Fitzgerald said. “The University doesn’t have a set schedule.”
Daily FOIAs for Brandon emails between March 13th and 14th of this year and between July 24th and 26th of 2014 came up with "no responsive records"; the Daily was looking for correspondence on the Gibbons matter. I can add that I filed an FOIA for the specific date of the Have A Happy Life email and, like one of our users, it came back non-responsive as well.
Hilariously, the University is arguing that it is "not a formal part of state government" to justify this behavior… after repeatedly arguing in court that they are. In yet further evidence that the Michigan FOIA department is out of step with standard practice:
When the Daily submitted requests for e-mail archives of various other Big Ten athletic directors in mid-2014, representatives from MSU, the University of Iowa, the University of Wisconsin, the University of Nebraska, Purdue University and the University of Illinois responded with offers to provide the records. The University of Minnesota, Indiana University, Pennsylvania State University and Ohio State University did not respond immediately.
A lack of transparency is always in service to the people entrenched at the top of the institution and not the institution itself.
Boo, John Clayton, boo. Clayton on Olbermann:
In brief: Clayton asserts that Harbaugh's going to be somewhere else next year but it is likely to be an NFL team, not Michigan.
Etc.: The Big Ten is bad at hockey. Except for Minnesota. Hockey commit Kyle Connor is kind of a big deal, and explicit that he is going to honor his commitment. Derrick Walton is set to make a leap. Tom Crean wrecked his program. Smart Football has a glossary.
Kameron Chatman (L) and DJ Wilson (R/HAIR) will split minutes at the four
Thus far, this preview has covered the knowns for this season's iteration of Michigan basketball. The point guard position is rock-solid with Derrick Walton in line for a breakout sophomore season and Spike Albrecht's steadying presence on the bench. Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin provide plenty of scoring punch (and much more, in LeVert's case) at the two and three, and both have the potential to take big leaps forward in 2014-15.
Now we hit the unknowns. For the purposes of this preview, the power forward position is considered a wing, just like it functions in John Beilein's offense—the small forward and power forward essentially mirror each other—and Michigan must replace a productive starter there with the departure of Glenn Robinson III.
We know this much: a true freshman will crack the starting lineup, almost certainly top-30 prospect Kameron Chatman, and the backups at both the three and the four will also be comprised of fresh-faced new arrivals. As Beilein noted at Big Ten Media Day, the team doesn't have any other choice:
“Guess what? There’s going to be young players out there all over the place,” he said. “We’re just going to have to throw them in there. … We can’t look to our bench and say, ‘Let’s get a more veteran player in there.’ There aren’t any. They’re just going to have to get in there.”
The good news for Michigan is they reeled in two highly touted freshmen, led by Chatman, and picked up two sleepers late in the cycle who could contribute as soon as this season, with each of them bringing something different to the table. After the jump, a much closer look at the four freshmen on the wing.
[Hit THE JUMP for detailed breakdowns of each player.]
On Csont'e York. It was inevitable that once the York video was released there were going to be a lot of strong reactions to it. I deleted a number of things that were over the line, and expected to.
I left up a bunch more that weren't quite delete-worthy but did make me feel uncomfortable. Most of those were uncomfortable because they weren't sad. Many called him a coward, others were almost gleeful in their eagerness to ship the guy out. Those threads don't reflect well on our community here.
While I think that York's second chance has to come somewhere else given the severity of what he did, I would appreciate it if everyone would keep in mind that even a kid who did a dumbass thing remains a person. There's an unfortunately paywalled profile of York from his time as a recruit up on ESPN. Chantel Jennings:
In August, he'll enroll at the University of Michigan and become the first person in his family to attend college. He has made it through the death of his mother, a number of family moves, and out of Detroit with a positive attitude. And through all of this, what he keeps closest to his heart is his family.
"My little brothers and sisters, I think about them," York said. "It has always been in my head that I have to do this for them. This isn't just for me. It's for my family. That's all I think of."
The reason York did what he did started with the people around him as he grew up and the primary emotion should be sadness that a kid couldn't keep it together. Once we're on to third chances I can see the disdain begin to creep in legitimately. Now, though, I just think of the times when I've been on the verge of a bad decision and struggled not to make it.
Kleenex at the ready. Austin Hatch and John Beilein profiled:
Three years ago, lying in a hospital bed in Traverse City fighting for his life, Austin Hatch's relationship with John Beilein went beyond a player-coach situation.
Nine days after pledging his verbal commitment to Michigan in June of 2011, Hatch was involved in a tragic plane crash that took the lives of both his father and stepmother and left him in a medically-induced coma.
At that point, no one was concerned about Hatch's basketball career. The main focus was saving his life.
And, unknown to Hatch at the time, one of those people standing at his bedside -- fighting along with him -- was Beilein.
Huge, they say. Michigan is apparently set to announce two home and home series:
Michigan football is set to announce two huge home and home opponents this week.
Terry Foster and Mike Stone met with Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon today and that’s when Brandon dropped the news that this announcement will happen later this week.
FWIW, apparently there was a connected guy on the Rivals board saying the opponents were Stanford and Duke in a since-deleted post. No idea if that's accurate or not; obviously only one of those teams would even sort of qualify as "huge." And with Stanford there's always the possibility that they return to historical norms by the time the game rolls around. I kind of doubt that's accurate anyway—tough to see Stanford taking on Michigan when they've got a nine-game conference schedule plus their now-annual game against Notre Dame. But anyway, stay tuned.
By the way, that post has a poll asking who you'd like to see Michigan play that includes Nebraska and Wisconsin, which was momentarily absurd until it wasn't. Marshall, another option, remains so.
WELP? Prepare for the Colening.
Hoke just said on the radio we should "expect to see" Mason Cole this year, and called him a left tackle. It's happening, folks.
— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) August 14, 2014
Everybody get up. But especially you. Aubrey Dawkins can get up, yo.
I sold Aubrey Dawkins short describing him athletically to be poor man's GR3. Not yoked like GR3, but he has his hops pic.twitter.com/lmka0lrRgk
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) August 13, 2014
When Michigan took MAAR and then still went after Dawkins that was an indication they liked him more than his rating would imply, and In Beilein We Trust.
That shot came from an open practice Michigan held before their Italy trip during which Kam Chatman impressed:
Michigan’s most highly touted freshman is multifaceted and college-ready. The general consensus among the scribes perched up on the observation deck was that Chatman will be a day-one starter, barring anything unforeseen.
The 6-foot-7 wing drilled smooth left-handed 3-pointers as a standstill shooter and off the dribble. He looked comfortable and capable making decisions with the ball. He finished in traffic.
Quinn's colleague Nick Baumgardner concurred:
First thing that struck me was Chatman. High-level shooter, can handle, finish, isn't skinny. He'll start right away.
Both Chatman and Dawkins spent time doing post drills as they prepare to play Novak/GRIII undersized 4. DJ Wilson is also going to be a 4 of the not-undersized variety but is still being held out with his pinky injury.
Unfortunately, Michigan won't be streaming any of the Italy games.
Brutal departure/injury spree. Unlike Nebraska's, this one actually matters for Michigan: Northwestern tailback Venric Mark will transfer; leading wide receiver Christian Jones is out for the year with a knee injury.
Mark, of course, tortured Michigan two years ago with his quickness. Jones is less of a loss since Northwestern tends to plug and play at WR but he was still their best guy in yards per target by some distance. Looks like it's Prater time? Naw, man, it's never Prater time. Until it is. But probably not. Because a Rutgers transfer is the guy Inside NU is promoting for the job.
A man familiar with the situation. Michigan doesn't get much mention in CBS Sportsline's group preview of the Big Ten except for incessant Jabrill Peppers talk in the "best newcomer" category, but the one guy who singled out Michigan as an underrated team is an interesting one: Auburn fan Jerry Hinnen, who's seen both Al Borges and Doug Nussmeier up close and personal. His take on M:
Most underrated team: Michigan. The Wolverines have to visit both Michigan State and Ohio State, keeping their odds of winning the East low, but they might still be the third-best team in the league. A healthy Jake Ryan and a loaded secondary should give Greg Mattison his best defense yet, and going from Al Borges to Doug Nussmeier might be the biggest offensive coaching upgrade in the FBS. If the offensive line has a pulse, 10 wins will be in play.
That is Michigan's great hope.
Looking pretty good down the road. More high praise for a hockey commit:
Griffin Luce is a tough as nails defender with an excellent stick and innate positional sense. Manage the puck,eats minutes. Michigan commit
— Sean Lafortune (@SeanLafortune) August 14, 2014
Unfortunately, that is an addendum to an article running down the top prospects the OHL's Kitchener Rangers have. Luce checks in third after being drafted in the fifth round despite his NTDP commitment. Details:
Steady, instinctive blueliner with great size and poise. Textbook hitter and defender backed by solid positional sense. … Thrives in the dirty pockets of the ice, using his size and strength advantages to win battles and gain possession. Excellent one on one defender, keeps an active stick, extremely efficient at getting sticks on pucks. Difficult to drive the net or gain an outside lane on, manages gaps efficiently and takes advantage of his massive wingspan. … Projects as a tough, physical, stay at home defender who can contribute at both ends of the ice. … Would be a top paring defender if he ever comes to the league.
Sounds like the kind of shutdown D Michigan hasn't had in a long time. I mean, Trouba, but Trouba was here and gone in a flash.
Kitchener does manage to snipe guys frequently, but in Luce's case Michigan should be okay. He's headed to NTDP and not currently projected to be a pick so high that he would get signed immediately and then reassigned. Also, his dad is the Panthers' director of scouting and played in the OHL himself—when they chose college it was an informed decision.
This is going to be a problem. The NCAA has just been hit with an injunction that says it cannot cap scholarship values below the federal government's full cost of attendance, so eventually those numbers are going to have to come up. The issue: those gaps vary widely between schools:
Ohio State: $3,346
Penn State: $4,000
Somehow it's more expensive to live in the middle of nowhere than an actual city or in Ann Arbor's notoriously expensive student housing market. Meanwhile, Tennessee has the biggest gap in the power five at 5,666.
It doesn't seem likely that Michigan's going to stand for a system where a kid going to Penn State gets 7k more over his four years, and there's no way in hell Georgia (1.8k) is going to go for a system where half the SEC is offering 10k+ more. So then what?
The power conferences have one way to normalize cost of attendance across all 65 schools: let every school go up to the highest cost of attendance figure, which in this case is Tennessee’s $5,666.
But that has its own set of problems. First, many schools would then be permitted to exceed cost of attendance, some by thousands of dollars. Not only is that philosophically troubling for the NCAA, it also complicates matters with financial aid offices. If a portion of an athletic scholarship exceeds cost of attendance and is not paid through the financial aid office, what is but payment for services rendered?
The shakiest part of the O'Bannon decision is definitely the proposed remedy, which forces the NCAA into a choice they don't want to make.
Etc.: You can see the Lego Movie at Michigan Stadium if you're a season ticket holder. The Pac-12 wants you to know it schedules hard and should be rewarded for it. Gopher blog predicts 31-13 M win over Minnesota. Fresno State tries to keep up with the Joneses.
On my signal, unleash dollars. It is time for the annual EDSBS charity drive. This is your opportunity to annoy other college football fanbases by giving more money than they do, thus preserving the cycle of college football life:
- Michigan doesn't do too well in football
- LOL Michigan
- Michigan wins EDSBS charity drive
- Who does Michigan think they are
This year Spencer promises a full road trip to the winner, and since LSU-Florida is the same day as Michigan's only decent home game that means we can get him to see The Horror II. Sounds like a deal, man. I'll give him my ticket, even.
Suggested donations this year include $114 (TFLs allowed), $43.42 (fairyland score of OSU game), $13.73 (Jeremy Gallon receiving yards), and $–48 (rushing yards against MSU). Because self-trolling or Gallon appreciation is the appropriate response to last year.
As always, all donations go to the Refugee Resettlement Services of Atlanta, which does very important work for refugees. Give here.
Play the right way, just not quite as right as Michigan. SMU and Michigan have agreed to a two-year home-and-home officially, with the home game coming immediately and the return next year. SMU barely missed the NCAA tournament last year thanks in large part to a miserable nonconference schedule but did go 12-6 in the AAC. After their snub they ran to the NIT final, where they lost to Minnesota.
They lose a middling shooting guard and a decent four from their lineup; they add a Very Big Deal in TX PG Emmanuel Mudiay, the guy who decided to play for Larry Brown instead of Kentucky, which may have been a deciding factor for Devin Booker. Now Michigan has its chance for revenge(!). They're probably a tourney team, and since they're playing in a newly Louisville-deprived AAC they're likely to have a shiny record. It's a smart move for RPI purposes and hey-look-a-home-game purposes.
Khalil Mack didn't play in the MAC because he thought it had a cool name
Sometimes unexpected things happen. These days it seems like everyone recognizes that the recruiting rankings dog-and-pony show is borne out as useful by the NFL draft. This is not necessarily the best thing in the world. There are a lot of differences between college and the NFL and when the main metric is what the NFL thinks, rankings can start answering a different question than "which college football teams are most likely to be successful in the near future?"
But it's still football and close enough. So when someone objects to the recruiting service folks pointing out that there's a pretty steep slope from five stars to two stars, they should have a good reason. Husker Mike's attempt from Corn Nation:
….what's a bigger surprise is that only four of the NFL's top 32 picks were considered in the top 30 coming out of high school. What's more, three of the NFL's top 32 picks were players that the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level. In other words, the number of complete misses (two star recruits that went in the first round) were about the same as the rankings they actually got right (five star, first round recruits).
The question is not whether recruiting services are perfect but whether they are making something approximating the best guess that can be offered when these kids sign. The three guys the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level were Khalil Mack, Jimmie Ward, and Darqueze Dennard. Mack went to Buffalo, Ward Northern Illinois, and Dennard MSU. They had literally one BCS offer between them, and Dennard's was a chance thing:
He entered the final game of his senior year of high school with zero scholarship offers and dim collegiate prospects. … More than a month before Dennard's regular-season finale at Twiggs County High, Middle Tennessee State pulled his only college scholarship offer. … State assistant coach Dave Warner had no idea who Dennard was before kickoff, but he kept seeing Twiggs County's uniform number 3 making plays all over the field.
There were 200-ish opportunities for BCS coaches to offer any of these guys. One of those came to fruition. Nobody should look askance on recruiting services for not picking these guys out. Literally no one except MSU assistant Dave Warner did.
And that goes to my point. Talent is hard for the professionals to evaluate. The professionals in the NFL have a tough time with evaluating, as Matt McGuire's 2010 study of the NFL draft showed. It's tough for college head coaches, who's careers depend on it. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the part-time amateurs who analyze it for the services don't get it right either. No matter how hard they protest and proclaim their own importance.
That is not a point that anyone disputes, and picking out random anecdotes…
I mean, when a school whose recruiting rankings from 2009 through 2012 were ranked 77th, 48th, 29th, and 42nd lands three first round draft picks in the 2014 NFL Draft, you realize that coaching and development is as important, if not more important, than the raw talent.
…when the greater picture is clear is almost as pointless as complaining about posts like this.
Well, just pay attention. The ACC is set to join the SEC as conferences that play just eight conference games despite having a ludicrous number of teams. They're also leaning towards the mandatory actual nonconference game to prevent the most shameless bowl-scraping schedules.
This has implications for playoff selection, as does the fact the Big 12 does not have a championship game. And it's fine, as long as the football committee just replicates Matt Hinton's process for voting*, I don't care how many conference games other conferences play. That process is feeling out who teams have actually beaten versus who they've lost to; football is never going to be something that cleans itself up into neat buckets but the upside of having a committee is the ability to look beyond simple win-loss treadmilling. We'll see if they take advantage or not.
*[ED: SMQB seems to be down, unfortunately.]
Measuring on the LeVert scale. Michigan signed Aubrey Dawkins and duly sent out its press release about it. Usually these things are just boilerplate but this one has an interesting note on Dawkins's size:
"We feel very fortunate to have Aubrey join our basketball program," Beilein said in a statement. "He is very athletic, long, a full 6-6, and has a tremendous upside. We love his passion and diligence for skill development and know he possesses great understanding of the game of basketball. We anticipate his versatility as a player will prove valuable on our team."
Dawkins is coming in with two 6'8" guys who can play the 4, so that probably doesn't open up a new position for him but it is nice to continue getting those 6'6" guys who can shoot over zones and maybe play them.
Do want. 2016 NV PG Derryck Thornton has a naaaaasty crossover:
Are you an angel of the apocalypse girl because every time I see you you're surrounded by people clutching their extremities and weeping.
Etc.: Devin Funchess projected as a first rounder on highly reliable mock drafts that are highly reliable.
Michigan's picked up a commitment from NH SF/SG Aubrey Dawkins, a 6'4" sleeper sort just discussed in this afternoon's recruiting post. The son of Stanford coach and former Duke star Johnny Dawkins, he picked Michigan over Dayton and will come in this fall.
Informative update coming.
Dawkins has the kind of rankings you expect from a guy with a placeholder photo many places. 247 has him a three star and the #67 SG, Rivals an unranked three star. ESPN and Scout still have him a two-star member of the class of 2013.
Dawkins took a prep year, so much of his scouting is old. ESPN hasn't updated his profile since last February. What they saw then($):
…ideal frame for the scoring guard position with excellent length. He does a terrific job of facing up his opponent and blowing by him to get to the basket. … can knock down the 3-point shot and his release looks relatively smooth… must get better handling pressure while dribbling. His handle can get sloppy when defenders get into him-especially when he goes left. His jump shot is solid, but as he gets stronger it needs to get more consistent for the scoring guard position.
That is just about it for scouting reports before his prep year. The major sites didn't collect any this year, either, but fortunately the NE prep school scene has spawned a number of regional sites that track the various D-I players hanging around.
So we know Dawkins had a bust-out performance in February of this year in the NPSI tourney, which is apparently a thing where all the fancy pants schools draw sabres and joust. Three different outfits took note. NERR:
The six-foot-six post-graduate had all parts of his game clicking. He was hot from behind the arc and athletic in transition, but equally important was the level of energy he was able to provide his team on both ends of the floor. He finished with 28 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 steals.
…breakout performer over the weekend in Providence. Sporting a quality physique and playmaking abilities at the tin, the one question mark surrounding the North Carolina native has always been in his shot making from behind the arc. The son of Stanford head coach, Johnny Dawkins, the younger Dawkins erased all questions surrounding his long range attempt and in his final outing in Rhode Island, hit on four 3’s and at one time, had scored 28 of his squad’s 52 points. …definite mid-major plus recruit, at the very least.
And Cox Sports:
Aubrey Dawkins was perhaps most outstanding. The lanky big man can play all three perimeter positions, and has improved his outside shooting to the degree where burying the three pointer is expected when left open.
Adam Finklestein mentioned Dawkins first in the video accompanying that quote, speaking thusly:
He showed his length and athleticism that everybody knew about. Everybody knew he was a great defender. He handles and passes the ball well enough to play all three perimeter postions. But what was critical to his performance was how well he shot the ball from the three point line. That was the big question mark in his game, and he was virtually automatic with his feet set from downtown.
An athletic guard around 6'5" who can shoot and slash but isn't going to cross a dude over and get to the rim—sounds like your archetype there is Tim Hardaway, Jr. Dawkins has had plenty of time to get on radars and did not until very late, so don't expect freshman fireworks.
That said, he is legit bouncy.
While he's not GRIII, he's got the midair pause going on a few of those alley-oops. Also, he finishes with both hands in some seemingly awkward ways.
A guy with good size and athleticism flying under the radar implies a lack one outstanding skill that puts him in recruitable Bin A or B or C. If you ask him about himself he claims to be a jack of all trades:
“I think my game is an all around game. I don’t think I do anything especially good. I do a lot of things well. Taking it to the basket, shooting from outside, high IQ, value the ball, athletic. I think that about sums it up. Make the best play, not settle for outside shots, take contested shots, do anything I can to win really.
He told Dayton's Rivals site the same thing nearly word for word($).
Scouting video put together by UMHoops shows a guy who can attack off closeouts but the one time he's asked to straight-up beat a guy in an iso situation (late shot clock) it looks awkward and ends up in a turnover. On the other hand, his shooting looks at least serviceable in this small sample size; have to figure Beilein can make him decent or better.
FWIW, Dawkins is self reporting he is 6'6", 185. He's reported anywhere from 6'4" to 6'6"; if he has added an inch or two that would be nice.
In high school, Dawkins averaged 19 and 7 for a team that sometimes did things like score 25 points in an entire game (17 of those were from Dawkins).
At New Hampton, Dawkins averaged about 13 points a game, which led the team. Prep stats can be funky, as those teams are often loaded with multiple D-I prospects. Mitch McGary had trouble even starting for his despite being Mitch McGary.
Michigan's main competition for Dawkins was Dayton, the A-10 squad that just reached the Elite Eight. He had a number of other low-major offers. Rhode Island, another A-10 school, also apparently offered. Nevada was interested.
If you're wondering why Dawkins didn't play for his father, he was direct about that before his senior year at Palo Alto:
“It’s a hard school to get into; I don’t care how good you are, you’ve got to have the grades to get in. I’m not going to go there.”
All right then.
In addition to the clips above, here are some highlights from Dawkins's prep year:
You can watch a replay of one of Dawkins's NPSI games for one dollar here.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
With Michigan's two wing slots thoroughly occupied this fall, Dawkins will compete with MAAR for minutes behind Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin, and then again with MAAR and any 2015/2016 recruits when LeVert and/or Irvin heads to the draft… at least at the SG spot. Michigan may go with Kam Chatman or Cole Huff at the 3, should Huff commit.
As a coach's kid with a nice frame, Dawkins has the potential to be a nice 3-and-D wing for Michigan with an upside similar to THJ's, minus an inch or two of height and vertical.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Michigan has one spot left and looks set to spend that on Nevada transfer Cole Huff. If things break down with Huff they would likely bank it for next year unless they really want a 4 or 5 to come in right now. If they're willing to take a transfer who has to sit it appears that need is not severe.