Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Notre Dame	[Patrick Barron]
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor MI
WHEN	7:30 Eastern
THE LINE	ND -1
TELEVISION	ABC
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	rain, 12 MPH wind ~50 degrees

Relevant Weather Explanation

Ann Arbor is supposed to get rain tomorrow, with an unrelenting storm starting around 4 and lasting through the night. Only Weather Underground is willing to tell you how much rain they expect, and it's around 0.16 inches per hour during the game. How much is that? 60% more than this:

Enough to have an impact; not enough to turn the game into a disaster where punting on first down seems like a good idea. You know, like that hilarious Notre Dame loss against NC State literally played in the remnants of a hurricane.

This is just going to be some rain.

Overview

You know those two girls in high school who were friends and then they weren't friends and then they were again for about two hours and then they hated each other forever, which lasted two weeks? Michigan-Notre Dame. Hello. This is a weird mid-season version of the game because Notre Dame wanted to flex its muscle and Harbaugh didn't care.

Notre Dame comes in highly rated by humans and less so by computers. The humans see a one-loss team that was competitive with then-#3 Georgia. The computers see statistically even games against every P5 opponent Notre Dame has faced. The Irish haven't had a total yardage advantage or deficit of more than about 50 yards in games against Louisville, Georgia, UVA, and USC. One of those is definitely a good team. The others… eh.

SP+ looked at that and said "this is the #19 team in the country"; Michigan is somewhat inexplicably 14th, so there you get the opening line: pretty much the gap in the SP+ rating between the teams (1.5 points) plus three points for home field, minus a couple points because Vegas looks at that and expects that line to get pounded down. Then the line gets pounded down anyway, swinging from Michigan –2.5 to Michigan +1.

[Hit THE JUMP for FRAMES]

Run Offense vs Notre Dame

 

if i keep posting mesh points maybe they'll go okay [Fuller]

This has not been a strength for the Irish except for a rushing rutger put up by Virginia, which got four yards on 29 carries in a 35-20 loss. Once you deal with sacks that's 59 yards on 21 carries, still horrible. Other P5 performances, sacks removed:

• Louisville: 43 carries, 6.4 YPC
• UGA: 33 carries, 152 yards, 4.6 YPC
• USC: 31 carries, 197 yards, 6.4 YPC

Even New Mexico State put up 4.6 yards per carry. Injury reinforcements aren't coming here, so this is an opportunity for Michigan to get healthy. Or at least get 4 yards a carry, something they've only managed against MTSU and Illinois.

Notre Dame's main issue here is that they're wee. They've dumped every vestige of their old 3-4 except for a Durkin-esque insistence their WDE is a "drop end" who might go do some coverage. The front seven now features Essentially Josh Uche as a DE/LB hybrid (Julian Okwara, "useless in coverage and extremely scary as a pass rusher" per Seth) and a 215-pound guy as a spacebacker, plus a couple of Glasgow-sized ILBs. If that:

I think they're lying about weights at linebacker. Maybe not for MLB Drew White (+6.5/-9.5 run, +0/-3 cov), a burst of acceleration who will get to the right hole if you point him straight at it. But former hybrid space player WLB Asmar Bilal (+3/-2 run, +1/-1 cov) still looks and plays like a defensive back, and has to shoot things aggressively or risk getting manhandled. The new "Rover" (HSP) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+9.5/-4 run, +0/-2 cov) mostly impressed me—he's the defense's wild child and used more or less how you would want a guy like him to be.

The DTs are solid pluggers (22 tackles between them, 5.5 for loss) without much depth.

ND responds to their deficiencies by blitzballing it. Iowa looks at this defensive scheme and blanches in horror. ND checks in with the highest standard-down blitz rate since Seth started tracking it in FFFF with a whopping 5.2 guys being sent across the line on average. Seth was fairly positive about the run D because he did the Georgia game, in which ND did not give up 6.4 YPC. ND was vulnerable to USC's Markese Stepp, particularly once he got to the second level, because he was able to power through various guys trying to climb on his back. Haskins and Charbonnet might be able to do some work.

Michigan will have to deliver those guys to the second level, something they've struggled with. Each game comes with a dose of 3-4 missed arc reads on which Michigan neither gets a nice chunk of yards nor induces indecision in the defense that can later be used to profit. Maybe this will be the game Michigan gets it right. Maybe it won't be.

Michigan continues evolving into more of what last year's offense looked like, with a healthy dose of pin and pull and even a couple of I-Form snaps on the goal line. That's looked fairly effective when Michigan is able to seal the edge, which happened all the time against Illinois and not so much against PSU.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN TEs vs EMLOS. Yes, again. Too much of Michigan's ground game got blown up by TE blocks that didn't happen last week.

Pass Offense vs Notre Dame

Kareem vs Runyan 2 [Barron]

Here too the Irish have one good P5 performance, when they held Louisville to 4.8 YPA, and three that look meh statistically—USC, UGA, and Virginia all averaged 7.2+ YPA with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. The difference here is when you heap 12 sacks on Virginia and USC those numbers collapse.

Like last year, this is a defense that needs to get to the quarterback and does. They're not at PSU levels but 18 sacks against mostly bonafide competition is good, and readers do not have to be reminded of what Okwara and Khalid Kareem did to Michigan's tackles last year. Seth already highlighted PFF's exclamation point of a scout on those two:

…[Kareem] spent a majority of his time at 6/7-tech and finished 10th in pass-rush grade and 20th in win rate at that alignment. … Okwara comes into the season as a top-three edge defender and the 14th overall prospect in the 2020 class according to the PFF Draft Guide. With ranking fourth in pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and second in pressure rate (20.5%) among returning edge defenders, there’s no question Okwara has proven his dominance. … play certainly did not falter when facing only Power Five programs, as he ranked first in pressure rate, second in win rate and sixth in overall grade, with his teammate Khalid Kareem being not too far behind at 13th.

Absolutely wrecking Jon Runyan Jr and Juwann Bushell-Beatty certainly played into that. After that game we were convinced that Michigan was doomed, only for Runyan to recover and be named first team All Big Ten by the coaches. It goes without saying that Michigan needs a better performance from their tackles if they're going to avoid last year's fate. It should get them; you should also expect a number of pass pro minuses from them.

Notre Dame's secondary will get Shaun Crawford back in some capacity, and since ND is coming off a bye that could very well be as a starter. Crawford is a mighty mite CB that doesn't seem like a great matchup against Michigan's hulking WR droids on deep balls but should provide a stiff test if Michigan tries to repeat their success on flanker hitch and comeback routes. The other corner is Troy Pride, who got a star from Seth and is a pretty close analogue to Tariq Castro-Fields, the PSU corner Collins just gave the business to. The safety pairing is excellent. Seth:

FS Alohi Gilman (+6/-3.5 run, +0/-0 cov) is the Navy transfer ball-hawk who reminded you of Kovacs last year and will do so another ten times this year even though he's faster than Kovacs ever was. He's also not nearly as strong—UGA still has D'Andre Swift, who took Gilman for some piggy-back rides in this game. SS Jalen Elliott (+7/-2 run, +0/-1 cov) is very fast, especially when coming up in run support, and mostly mistake-free. He does fine on slot receivers.

Michigan is coming into this game off an excellent pass protection performance against PSU and has a decent shot of keeping Patterson clean despite the frequent blitzing and intimidating ends. The sideline shots Michigan did a lot of work with against PSU may not be nearly as reliable in this game—they didn't go that well against Illinois as the wind blew the ball out its spiral, and here Michigan will have to contend with rain on top of a healthy wind.

There are always deep shots if Michigan find itself in a situation where not much seems to be working, but one of the perpetual mysteries about this year's team is why there aren't always deep shots. This game might degenerate into a situation where the passes that make sense are YOLO ball because a fade that's short is often a good play in a way that a hitch or drag is not.

KEY MATCHUP: TACKLES vs NOT LAST YEAR PLEASE. Obvious.

Run Defense vs Notre Dame

this could be Tony Jones [Fuller]

If you'd like a Brian Kelly stat, here you go: top tailback Tony Jones Jr is averaging 7.0 YPC and 13 carries per game. Brian Kelly has lately been coaxed into giving him the ball more: after 15 and 9 carries against UL and Georgia, Jones got 18 and 25 against UVA and USC. Because he's averaging more yards per rush against P5 opponents than Book is per pass (once you include sacks).

Kelly will run the ball like a four year old eats broccoli: grudgingly, and only after it has been patiently explained that the alternative is being traded in for a Subaru.

Anyway, he might have to turn to the ground game more depending on how bad the rain is and how his QB responds. As the YPC above indicates this has a fair chance of working, especially with #1 RB Jafar Armstrong back this week after missing the season to date with an injury. ND's line is almost literally all guys they won head to head recruiting battles against Michigan and/or Ohio State for, and with the exception of their center they're all reasonably experienced.

Seth didn't really get much to scout as Notre Dame went Full Kelly against the D on the schedule (Georgia) most akin to Michigan's in ranking, running just 15 times. Georgia justified that decision—Jones got just 21 yards on his nine attempts—and Michigan has a pretty good shot at being in that ballpark. The defenses that ND has done work against on the ground are 100th (Louisville), 44th (USC) and, uh, 14th (Virginia, somehow) in SP+ defense. Michigan is 4th; Georgia is 5th. Unfortunately we don't have the drill-down stats this year to break those out more precisely, but ND's output against USC and UL, 6.4 and 5.5 YPC, respectively, is massively different than that against UVA (4.2) an UGA(3.3).

The bits of the ND ground game that are good—the tackles, mostly, and their RBs in space—are countered with Michigan's excellent run-D DEs and linebackers who get sideline to sideline. The relative weakness of Michigan's D, the DTs, meet up with a redshirt freshman C and the very large but erratic Aaron Banks at guard.

QB Ian Book does run a bit, with success predicated mostly on surprise. He's averaging 6.1 YPC on 40 attempts that are maybe a third scrambles and two-thirds on-purpose. He's going to get 20-40 yards when Michigan isn't prepped for a QB run.

KEY MATCHUP: BRIAN KELLY vs BRIAN KELLY. He should probably run a lot in this game even though he'll be meeting middling success or worse. Does he have the patience to try to win a low-scoring game?

Pass Defense vs Notre Dame

football should not be taken seriously [Fuller]

Michigan won't see Brandon Wimbush or Miles Boykin in this game but it might seem familiar anyway since ND brought back 6'4" Chase Claypool and has stuck him in the Boykin downfield-jump-ball-guy slot pretty seamlessly. Also familiar: annual Goddammit Is That A Notre Dame Tight End 30 Yards Downfield guy. This one's named Cole Kmet. Tommy Tremble is the next edition of this and also has 9 catches this year. You also remember slot Chris Finke, who's now graduated from walk-on status and exists as Drew Dileo, but faster. Not fast. But faster.

This is pretty much the beginning and ending of the Notre Dame receiving corps. Javon McKinley has eight catches; seven of these are against BGSU and New Mexico. That's in his career. Nominal starter Lawrence Keys has 7 catches on the year and is also an outside WR who stands 5'10". For Michigan it's about covering the tight ends and attempting to deny Claypool big plays downfield.

This has been a struggle for ND. Ian Book lit up NMSU and BGSU for 16.1 and 12.6 YPA, respectively, with a total of 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Against the rest of the schedule: 6.3 YPA, 4 TDs, 2 INTs despite a 61% completion rate. This is a dink and dunk offense against the P5, so while the pass protection has been good (just nine sacks allowed on the season) some of that is the nature of the offense. But not that much. Seth:

…gave up zero sacks to a very good defense (albeit not a very good pass rushing defense) on 41 non-screen non-RPO drop-back passing plays, much of them in comeback hour. That body of pass-blocking is why I gave stars to both tackles, LT Liam Eichenberg (+3/-7.5, 2 pass pro minuses) and RT Robert Hainsey (+2/-3, -1 pass) … Hainsey is a talent—he's not that strong yet but he's very athletic and could present a very different kind of challenge for Uche than the slower, beefier types he normally sees.

ND leads the country in PFF's pass block efficiency metric.

So if you're scuffling in the pass game with a couple of good burly targets and the protection is good, well, that goes back to the QB. Ian Book started his career looking like a world-beater, finishing 5th in passer efficiency as a sophomore last year, but has settled into just a guy. The NFL book on, er, Book:

Book's strengths entering 2019 include his accuracy as well as his football IQ. His notable weaknesses include his perceived lack of physical tools as well as his consistency on deep pass attempts.

Another, similar take:

“I think there is always going to be a cap on his ceiling, because he’s not this incredible physical specimen,” Wright said. “Even if he catches fire and lights it up down the stretch, there’s still some physical deficiencies there. I think aside from that, it’s just kind of missing the opportunities for some big plays.

“I think he’s leaving a lot of production out there on the field, and I think we kind of saw that last year with (wide receiver) Miles Boykin, where he turned out to be this phenomenal specimen and he is performing right away as a rookie.

“I think he left some production on the field last year with him, and I think we’re seeing a similar thing this year with Chase Claypool. I think there’s an opportunity for Book to play better than he has been, but he’s not always seeing those opportunities.”

Book's iffy arm strength and erratic deep ball have allowed guys to take their chances with Claypool and shut down the other not-so-good targets, usually just after they catch an accurate short pass. And when you move him off his spot his efficiency collapses, again because he doesn't have the arm to get wacky with his platform.

If Michigan does what they did against Penn State it'll probably be fine unless Hawkins has a repeat of last year. There's no Hamler. Claypool is going to get a couple of punts and come down with them. Kmet will be an issue; Book will be affected by the weather as much or more than Patterson.

KEY MATCHUP: MIKE DWUMFOUR vs INTERIOR OL. Michigan passed on starting G Aaron Banks because he's a big top-heavy guy who gets off balance, and Dwumfour is the kind of dude who can win interior pass rushes against a big top heavy guy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Jonathan Doerer is 6/7 on the season; punter Jay Bramblett is a bit on the short side with a 41 yard average, but gives up little in punt returns.

Finke returns as the punt returner; he is reliable and will get chunks of yards but hasn't broken a long one in three years. ND has done little on kick returns for years and gave up two TDs, one of them Ambry Thomas's, last year.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Rain exacerbates Michigan's ball allergy.
• The pass protection looks like last year.
• The forecast is optimistic and it turns into a complete randomizer.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Book collapses in the weather more than Patterson.
• Michigan's rush D has the same impact Georgia's did.
• The gods of dumb favor Michigan this day.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Rain Seems To Favor The Team Good At Running, +1 for Line Pounded, +1 for A Comedy Of Errors, Perpetually, +1 for BPONE, –1 for Blips Of Life Last Week)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for To Hell With Notre Dame, +1 for Winning Important Games Is Fun, +1 for If I'm Going To Stand In The Rain For Four Hours I'd Like It To Come With Some Rewards, +1 for Beat Rivals, –1 for David DeJulius Hit 7 of 8 Threes In A Scrimmage Against UD)

Loss will cause me to… seriously if David DeJulius can be anything like the guy he seemed like in high school that is just a massive win.

Win will cause me to… let's get these guys back on the schedule pronto!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Michigan-ND night games already start off in the Stupid As Heck zone, and this one is going to feature 4 hours of rain. The stupid is going to get turned up to 11. Will Michigan fumble six times? Will a Notre Dame quarterback attempt to throw the ball only for it to come out backwards for no apparent reason? Will Jeremy Gallon catch a pass in the fourth quarter and everyone decides that it's fine because he has a certificate indicating he's a time traveler? Will Brian Kelly turn into a giant animatronic mushroom?

Yes. At the end, someone will have more points.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Combined turnovers: 6.
• Pressure is the difference; M doesn't get as much as ND.
• Notre Dame, 22-20.